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And that's not taking into account that RCP doesn't include Research 2000's daily tracker, which shows Obama ahead by 13 points.
 
BenBurch said:
And that shows about 8% undecided. So the final number could be 58-42...

1984 election range.

Because none of the third parties are garnering much real support this time out.
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Which assumes that the undecideds all break in the Dems favor right? I don't think they will, at least not 100%.

Again, I caution Obama supporters to not count their chickens just yet.
 
nsn; My experience tells me that at least half of all undecideds wait until a clear winner emerges and then vote for that person because they want to support the winning side.

Stupid, but there it is.

So I do expect most undecideds to break for Obama. Probably not all, but at least most.

-Ben
 
Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 today (50%-45%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 12 ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

That’s a bit closer than numbers from a week ago when Obama enjoyed an eight-point advantage, his largest lead of the year.

Still, the data continues to suggest a very stable race with Obama as the clear frontrunner. This is the eighteenth straight day that Obama’s support has stayed in the narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45%
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Other national tracking polls out this morning ...

October 13 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 4 (48%-44%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 12
October 13 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 8 (51%-43%) -- Unchanged from Oct 10
 
Latest for Colorado ...

Colorado (9)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
 
Pookster said:
Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 today (50%-45%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 12 ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll




Other national tracking polls out this morning ...

October 13 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 4 (48%-44%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 12
October 13 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 8 (51%-43%) -- Unchanged from Oct 10
Click to expand...

So this seems to imply that McCain is catching up a little? A slow rebound in the national polls from the attacks last week or maybe from some other factor. There seems to be a slight bump in McCain's numbers that has me a little worried, any cause for concern for Obama supporters?
 
not_so_new said:
So this seems to imply that McCain is catching up a little? A slow rebound in the national polls from the attacks last week or maybe from some other factor. There seems to be a slight bump in McCain's numbers that has me a little worried, any cause for concern for Obama supporters?
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I see it as no movement. They're both staying in established ranges now - Obama 50%-52% and McCain 44%-45%. You could have Obama up by 8 or 5 depending on where they happen to hit in that range on a given day. McCain hasn't scored above 45% in a long time, and neither has Obama scored less than 50%.
 
Yes, there is definite movement in McCain's direction. But it's small.

Meanwhile, Gallup has unleashed their "Likely Voter" polls... and it only has Obama up by 5.

Here we go...
 
An interesting Bush State poll ...

North Dakota (3)
October 13 - Forum Poll/MSUM: Obama by 2 (45%-43%)
 
BenBurch said:
There is always noise in polling data of about this magnitude. I don't see much problem here, but I am SURE that Obama's people will deal with it as though it IS a problem. They don't let anything slide.
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Agreed. They're both scoring in their established ranges ... especially so when considering the MOEs. Until McCain starts polling above 45% nationally (in any poll), nothing has changed.
 
Latest on Ohio ...

Ohio (20)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - ARG: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 7 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
 
Great article about how likely a McCain comeback is:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/us/politics/13caucus.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin

Reagan did it in 1980 (overcame a late 8-point deficit) because of the oddity of only having one debate and it just a week before the election (Reagan's debate bounce won him the presidency). And Gore made up a similar gap in 2000, before losing in that bizarre mess in Florida.

Otherwise, the guy winning at this point, wins the whole thing.
 
Gallup has Obama doubling his lead to 10 points today (53%-43%) -- Obama lead +5 from Oct 12

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111112/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Ahead-51-41.aspx

The percentage of registered voters favoring Obama has been 50%, 51%, or 52% in each Gallup Poll Daily tracking report since Oct. 4. Support for McCain has been a steady 41% to 43% across the same time period. Thus, although the gap between the two candidates has varied from seven to 11 points in recent days, voter preferences have, in fact, been quite stable.
Click to expand...

Among typical "likely voters" -- the subset of registered voters who appear most likely to vote on Election Day according to their current voting intentions and past voting behavior -- Obama's lead is a slightly narrower seven points, 51% to 44%. This assumes that about 60% of the voting age population will vote, slightly higher than the 55% who turned out in 2004.

Among a more broadly defined likely voter group that only takes into account current voting intentions -- not past voting behavior -- Obama's lead is the same 10 points as among all registered voters, 53% to 43%. This group represents approximately two-thirds of the general public, a significantly higher proportion than has turned out in any recent election.
Click to expand...


I'm using the "Likely Voters II" numbers. I think to assume voting patterns this year can be determined as they were in 2004 to be wrong considering the turnout in the primaries.
 
Wasn't it Gallup's likely voter criteria we were making fun of earlier in this thread? Or perhaps another one?

Wasn't that the one that had a 13-point swing in a single day, because their criteria was so sloppy and baffling?
 
David Wong said:
Wasn't it Gallup's likely voter criteria we were making fun of earlier in this thread? Or perhaps another one?

Wasn't that the one that had a 13-point swing in a single day, because their criteria was so sloppy and baffling?
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Without looking back, I don't think so. Gallup just started releasing "likely voter" polls yesterday for this election. Or was it a prior election being discussed?
 
New poll ...

Missouri (11)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

Ouch.


Another national poll ...

October 13 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
 
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