Poll Vault

[MattusMaximus]

The latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 75.4
McCain 26.1

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 55.2
McCain 47.8

NewsFutures
Obama 67
McCain 33

Intrade
Obama 69.0
McCain 31.5

While I'm at it, I'm going to include a shout out to the Yahoo Political Dashboard, which has a projection of the Electoral College breakdown via state-by-state prediction markets. In short, it's looking very grim for McCain and the GOP, very grim indeed...

Yahoo Political Dashboard Electoral College
Obama 338
McCain 200

If these markets are anywhere close, it's going to be a blowout on Election Day.

 

[MattusMaximus]

North Carolina (15)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)
October 3 - Elon: Obama by 2 (44%-42%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)

PPP (D) poll ...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_100625.pdf

This is a real surprise to me. I would never have thought that Obama could be seriously challenging McCain in a GOP stronghold like North Carolina, but here it is. Here's a very interesting article from Politico.com about the NC situation...

McCain forced to defend N.C.

... The turmoil on Wall Street and the economic downturn have helped turn North Carolina into more fertile ground for Obama, who took his first lead over John McCain in the Real Clear Politics average of state polls a week ago. As a national leader in the banking industry, the state suffered more bad news last week as it faces the loss of thousands of high-paying bank jobs—and a blow to its state pride—when Charlotte-based Wachovia Corp. put itself up for sale last week.

Similar to its flood-the-zone strategy in Virginia, which is experiencing its first competitive presidential race in decades, the Obama campaign has been aggressive in its pursuit of North Carolina.

Obama chose this city in the Blue Ridge Mountains to prepare for Tuesday’s presidential debate with the state's 15 electoral votes in mind. It’s his fifth visit since clinching the Democratic nomination in June, while vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden has made two stops and Michelle Obama traveled to Charlotte and Greensboro last month, and returns again Tuesday.

Obama is also dominating the airwaves, running about three TV ads for every one from McCain, according to North Carolina political experts.

The prospect of North Carolina as a battleground has put the McCain campaign in a bind, stirring a debate on how much time and resources it should devote to a state that has voted for Republican presidential nominees since 1976. ...

Wow, having McCain play defense in places like North Carolina this late in the game spells doom ahead for the GOP. Obama seems to be capitalizing quite well on the GOP's over-confidence that N.C. would be a reliably red state; the article goes into some good detail about how this is partly due to the economy but also due to changing demographics with which the Republicans have not been keeping pace.

For all the crowing I've seen on these threads by some Republicans about Obama and the Dems being supposedly overconfident, I must say this N.C. situation is the epitome of GOP overconfidence biting McCain in the butt. Oops.

 

[Malerin]

ABC's got Obama up by 6 in Ohio:

"Obama was ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio if the election were today, according to the poll. Though 18 percent of the respondents said they had not yet made up their minds for sure, Obama had the advantage of the sheer energy of his backers: Fifty-eight percent of his Ohio supporters are "very enthusiastic" about his candidacy, compared with just 30 percent of McCain's."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5952332&page=1

As Ohio goes...

 

[Pookster]

State of the States In Play ...

Kerry States in play:

Michigan (17)
October 2 - PPP (D) Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 25 - Detroit Free Press: Obama by 13 (51%-38%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 8 (47%-39%)
September 25 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Tied (46%-46%)
September 25 - EPIC-MRA: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)

Minnesota (10)
October 5 - Star Tribune: Obama by 18 (55%-37%)
October 3 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (47%-46%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)

New Hampshire (4)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (53%-40%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 3 - St. Anselm/SRBI: Obama by 12 (49%-37%)

Pennsylvania (21)
October 6 - West Chester U.: Obama by 10.3 (52.3%-42%)
October 5 - Morning Call Tracking: Obama by 11 (49%-38%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 15 (54%-39%)
October 1 - Franklin & Marshall: Obama by 7 (45%-38%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)

Wisconsin (10)
October 1 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 9 (49%-40%)
September 25 - Research 2000: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)



Bush States in play:

Colorado (9)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 5 - Denver Post: Tied (44%-44%)
October 2 - Ciruli Assoc.: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)

Florida (27)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 1 - Suffolk/WSVN: Obama by 4 (46%-42%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)

Indiana (11)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

Iowa (7)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Nevada (5)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

Missouri (11)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

North Carolina (15)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)
October 3 - Elon: Obama by 2 (44%-42%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)

Ohio (20)
October 6 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)
October 5 - Columbus Dispatch: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

Virginia (13)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)


The Kerry States seem to be out of play right now, but I'm still including them ... for now.

Not included in the polling is the "Omaha" congressional district in Nebraska. One electoral vote is competitive in that State, but there is no polling that we can go with.

 

[Puppycow]

I wonder if Al Franken was such a good choice for the Democrats to nominate in Minnesota. In a strong year for democrats, he seems to be underperforming.

Minnesota senate race

Two recent polls are mirror opposites:

Star Tribune 09/30 - 10/02 1084 LV 34 43 18 Franken +9
SurveyUSA 09/30 - 10/01 725 LV 43 33 19 Coleman +10

Also, it seems that Minnesotans are not satisfied with their choices because Independent Dean Barkley is polling at close to 20%. Could it be that a more generic democrat would be doing better than Franken?

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen still has Obama up by 8 today (52%-44%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

This is the second straight day that Obama has led by eight percentage points, his largest lead of the year. For the past twelve days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day

Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 217-163. However, when “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

 

[Pookster]

Some even newer State polls out this morning ...

New Hampshire (4)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (53%-40%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 3 - St. Anselm/SRBI: Obama by 12 (49%-37%)

Wisconsin (10)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 1 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 9 (49%-40%)
September 25 - Research 2000: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)

Indiana (11)
October 7 - CNN/Time: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

North Carolina (15)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Tied (49%-49%)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)
October 3 - Elon: Obama by 2 (44%-42%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)

Ohio (20)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 6 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)
October 5 - Columbus Dispatch: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)


The national polls as of now ...

Latest National Polls:

October 7 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 7 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 7 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 6 - Research 2000: Obama by 11 (52%-41%)
October 6 - Gallup Tracking: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
October 6 - NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
October 6 - CBS News: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 6 - CNN: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 6 - Gallup Tracking: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
October 6 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 6 (47%-41%)
October 6 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 3 (48%-45%-Nader 3%-Barr 2%)

 

[chipmunk stew]

Gallup has Obama up by 9 today (51-42)

The nine percentage point lead in Oct. 4-6 tracking matches Obama's highest to date for the campaign, and the highest for either candidate. Obama led McCain by 49% to 40% near the tail end of his international trip in late July.

I think it's the first time he's broken 51%, too.

 

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama increasing his lead to 9 (51%-42%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111004/Gallup-Daily-9Point-Obama-Lead-Ties-Campaign-High.aspx

The nine percentage point lead in Oct. 4-6 tracking matches Obama's highest to date for the campaign, and the highest for either candidate. Obama led McCain by 49% to 40% near the tail end of his international trip in late July.

Obama has now held a statistically significant lead since Sept. 24-26 polling and has not trailed McCain since Sept. 13-15, roughly coinciding with the intensification of the financial crisis.

 

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama up by 9 today (51-42)

I think it's the first time he's broken 51%, too.

You beat me to it.

I think you're right about the 51%. I think tonight's debate could be McCain's last shot at turning the tide. It's a Town Hall format that is supposed to be his strength. If he can't cause a shift in the polls by Thursday or Friday, I get the feeling next week's debate will just be a formality.

 

[David Wong]

The thing is, the ratings weren't great for the first one. I'll just be interested in seeing if anybody watches, there's a bit of campaign fatigue out there.

 

[Pookster]

A few more State polls out ...

Pennsylvania (21)
October 7 - Morning Call Tracking: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 15 (55%-40%)
October 6 - West Chester U.: Obama by 10.3 (52.3%-42%)

Florida (27)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

 

[Pookster]

And a few more ...

Florida (27)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Minnesota (10)
October 7 - Minn. Pub. Radio: Obama by 14 (54%-40%)
October 5 - Star Tribune: Obama by 18 (55%-37%)

 

[davefoc]

When could we say that the elections are decided, based upon the poll numbers (if ever).


It seems like there would be some sort of time-lead relationship:

If a candidate had a 25% lead with 100 days remaining = winner (95% confidence level)

If a candidate had a 10% lead with 30 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

If a candidate had a 5% lead with 5 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

Does anyone have an opinion, or know if this type of analysis has been done?

I have an opinion. But it's a complete wild ass guess.

If a candidate had a 25% lead with 100 days remaining = winner (95% confidence level)
That seems about right to me. The only way a 25% lead is going to be overcome is with some kind of major event. What was the first Bush's lead over Clinton at this point?

If a candidate had a 10% lead with 30 days remaining = winner, 95% CL
Maybe, I'm less sure but it seems about right.

If a candidate had a 5% lead with 5 days remaining = winner, 95% CL
This is both the most interesting one to me and the one I'm most unsure of. Part of this goes to the randomness of the result. There is a percentage of the population that seems to swing from candidate to candidate very easily and they are the ones that are going to be behind most of a sudden change like this. I think the Obama camp has reason to fear a sudden swing like this. Many of the people who have decided to vote for him may also have some racial fears and how that plays out when they are in the election booth is anybody's guess. In this race, my number might be something more like 8.5% lead for a 95% CL. In general, I still suspect the number is larger than 5%. Still, from my perspective of course, I just wonder how many people that have decided to vote for Obama are all of a sudden going to say to themselves, "Jee, that Sarah Palin sure looks like a good candidate to me, I think I'll vote for McCain/Palin instead of Obama/Biden."

 

[MattusMaximus]

The latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 76.2
McCain 24.9

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 54.8
McCain 46.8

NewsFutures
Obama 69
McCain 31

Intrade
Obama 72.0
McCain 28.3

Yahoo Political Dashboard Electoral College Market
Obama 338
McCain 200

ETA: These are, hands down, the worst numbers I have seen for McCain and the GOP ever since I've been tracking the markets in early June. McCain is finished, I think. That is, barring some kind of major event (a terrorist attack, Obama dies, etc).

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen has Obama up by 6 today (51%-45%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

For the past thirteen days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day

The overwhelming majority of interviews for this morning’s update were conducted before the conclusion of last night’s Presidential debate.

Voters now trust Democrats more than Republicans on all ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports.

 

[Pookster]

State of the States in play ...

Kerry States in play:

Michigan (17)
October 2 - PPP (D) Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 25 - Detroit Free Press: Obama by 13 (51%-38%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 8 (47%-39%)
September 25 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Tied (46%-46%)
September 25 - EPIC-MRA: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)

Minnesota (10)
October 7 - Minn. Pub. Radio: Obama by 14 (54%-40%)
October 5 - Star Tribune: Obama by 18 (55%-37%)

New Hampshire (4)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (53%-40%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 3 - St. Anselm/SRBI: Obama by 12 (49%-37%)

Pennsylvania (21)
October 7 - Rasmussen: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)
October 7 - Morning Call Tracking: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 15 (55%-40%)
October 6 - West Chester U.: Obama by 10.3 (52.3%-42%)

Wisconsin (10)
October 8 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (54%-44%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 1 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 9 (49%-40%)
September 25 - Research 2000: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)



Bush States in play:

Colorado (9)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 5 - Denver Post: Tied (44%-44%)
October 2 - Ciruli Assoc.: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)

Florida (27)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 1 - Suffolk/WSVN: Obama by 4 (46%-42%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)

Indiana (11)
October 7 - CNN/Time: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

Iowa (7)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Nevada (5)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 7 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

Missouri (11)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

North Carolina (15)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Tied (49%-49%)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)
October 3 - Elon: Obama by 2 (44%-42%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)

Ohio (20)
October 7 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 6 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)
October 5 - Columbus Dispatch: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

Virginia (13)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)


I'm likely going to drop the Kerry States as being in play. The polls have been showing commanding leads for Obama for some time now. The Bush States are going to be the deciding factor. That said, Iowa is no longer in play and belongs to Obama, IMO. There is little polling going on for it now as well.

 

[David Wong]

Reuters/Zogby: McCain pulls into statistical tie (Obama by 2)

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4961BK20081008

Hotline/FD: McCain pulls into statistical tie (Obama by 1)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100808.htm

GW/Battleground: Obama by 4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_100808_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf


So we have to major polling firms saying if the election were held today it'd be virutally a coin toss.

 

[Malerin]

Some tightening in the national polls, but Mccain is getting creamed in the state polling. Intrade's spread is 73-26. Obama was hurt a bit by Biden's absence and Palin's attacks, but will probably get a bounce coming out of the debate.

 

[Pookster]

I generally like to focus on Rasmussen. They've been less volatile from day to day. They've a good track record for accuracy too. Looking at a number of different polls and trying to get a "picture" of the race is not the best approach, IMO.