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With these numbers in Michigan I am surprised that McCain would throw in the towel. These are not that far out from other important swing states are they?

Michigan
October 2 - PPP (D) Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 25 - Detroit Free Press: Obama by 13 (51%-38%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 8 (47%-39%)
September 25 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Tied (46%-46%)
September 25 - EPIC-MRA: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)

Florida (27)
October 1 - Suffolk/WSVN: Obama by 4 (46%-42%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 30 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (47%-47%)
September 29 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)

To put it a different way... based on these numbers isn't it just as logical for McCain to drop out of New Hampshire or Florida then? I know Florida is a bigger deal but... Michigan? That is huge.

I think I am not making my point very well. Shouldn't McCain have stuck around in Michigan? What does he know that these numbers are not telling us because these numbers are not too far out there... are they?

To answer my question, I guess that McCain is just falling back to a fireline in other states knowing he can't win Florida and Michigan both.
 
not_so_new said:
With these numbers in Michigan I am surprised that McCain would throw in the towel. These are not that far out from other important swing states are they?

Michigan
October 2 - PPP (D) Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 25 - Detroit Free Press: Obama by 13 (51%-38%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 8 (47%-39%)
September 25 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Tied (46%-46%)
September 25 - EPIC-MRA: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)

Florida (27)
October 1 - Suffolk/WSVN: Obama by 4 (46%-42%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 30 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (47%-47%)
September 29 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)

To put it a different way... based on these numbers isn't it just as logical for McCain to drop out of New Hampshire or Florida then? I know Florida is a bigger deal but... Michigan? That is huge.

I think I am not making my point very well. Shouldn't McCain have stuck around in Michigan? What does he know that these numbers are not telling us because these numbers are not too far out there... are they?

To answer my question, I guess that McCain is just falling back to a fireline in other states knowing he can't win Florida and Michigan both.
Click to expand...

You have to remember the campaigns have much more and much better and much more detailed polling than we do. They have specific vote totals in specific counties they're trying to reach, and basically their data says the 5% they need to pick up just isn't there. Meaning there aren't enough undecideds and they're trending in the wrong direction, etc.
 
gdnp said:
Don't blink. It's now at 30.5 for McCain.
Click to expand...

Obama 70.0
McCain 30.4


Well, on the bright side for McCain, I really think he is bottoming out. He likely can only go up after today ... at least until Tuesday.
 
The latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 71.6
McCain 28.8

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 55.0
McCain 46.4

NewsFutures
Obama 60
McCain 40

Intrade
Obama 70.5
McCain 29.9

Wow, both IEM-WTA and Intrade have McCain trading at under 30% - I'd say that unless McCain can work some major magic or there is some kind of game-changing event (such as a terrorist attack), Obama's going to win this thing hands down. And he'll likely win by a substantial margin in the Electoral College, if the Electoral College prediction markets are anywhere near correct.

That said, there is still one month to go. And a lot can happen in a month.

ETA: NewsFutures has adjusted since I posted...

Obama 63
McCain 37

This seems weird. Quite a large swing, though it is trending in the same direction as other prediction markets. Are there games afoot over at NewsFutures? Hmmm.
 
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It looks as if there is now some polling info out about last night's VP debate...

Polls: Biden won debate, though Palin did well

... A CBS News/Knowledge Networks survey of 500 uncommitted voters taken after the debate Thursday night found that 46 percent thought Biden won, while 21 percent gave Republican Sarah Palin the victory. While two-thirds found Palin knowledgeable about important issues, 98 percent said the same about Biden.

A separate CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey found similar views, with 51 percent saying Biden did better, to 36 percent favoring Palin.

Perhaps most significant, the CNN survey found that 87 percent thought the Delaware senator was qualified to be president, while 42 percent saw Palin that way. ...
Click to expand...

... But at this stage of the campaign, with Americans weary of war and anxious about the declining economy, the Republican ticket faces a hostile environment since it represents the incumbent party at a time when voters are seeking change. Palin had to do more than merely hold her own to shift the campaign's overall dynamic. But there's no evidence she did that, even if she exceeded expectations for her performance. ...
Click to expand...


I know the CBS poll was done on non-committed voters, but what about the breakdown of the CNN poll? I seem to recall that some of the polling done after the first presidential debate was skewed with more Democrats being polled than Republicans. On that note, does anyone have numbers as to viewership - that is, how many Dems, Repubs, Indies watched the VP debate?

Bottom Line: Sarah Palin exceeded expectations (the bar was practically on the ground, btw), but she wasn't able to deliver how she needed to in order to get McCain out of his rut. This VP debate may work to whip up the GOP base a bit, but it won't do anything to reach beyond the base to independents and undecideds. And unless McCain/Palin can do that, they're finished.

McCain has two more debates to go with Obama. All Obama has to do is repeat his first performance - look calm, cool, collected, and stay on message. If McCain cannot bring his A-game and cause Obama to stumble very badly, it's over.
 
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Bottom line: After the debate only 42% thought she was qualified to be president. That's about the lowest bar that you can set, and she can't even reach 50%
 
Here's another poll, this one out just before the VP debate...

Skepticism of Palin Growing, Poll Finds

With the vice presidential candidates set to square off today in their only scheduled debate, public assessments of Sarah Palin's readiness have plummeted, and she may now be a drag on the Republican ticket among key voter groups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...
Click to expand...

It'd be interesting to see if this same group conducts a similar poll over the weekend. That might allow us to gauge just how well Palin did, or didn't, perform in the VP debate.
 
Rasmussen has Obama up by 6 today (51%-45%). It's the fifth straight day Obama has polled above 50%, and the ninth straight day he's polled at or above 50%.
 
IEM-WTA
Obama 74.7
McCain 24.9

Wow.... That is pretty amazing right there.

I don't think it tells us everything of course, may things might still take place from now to election day but it's not looking great for McCain if this is even close to reality.
 
Rasmussen has Obama up by 7 (51%-44%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

For each of the past ten days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45%.
Click to expand...

One way of understanding the difficult challenge now facing McCain is to consider the relatively small group of persuadable voters who could still change their mind. The Republican hopeful would have to win nearly 80% of those votes to pull ahead in the race. That’s especially challenging because most of those voters are currently leaning towards Obama.
Click to expand...
 
Latest polls for the States in play ...


Kerry States in play:

Michigan (17)
October 2 - PPP (D) Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 25 - Detroit Free Press: Obama by 13 (51%-38%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 8 (47%-39%)
September 25 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Tied (46%-46%)
September 25 - EPIC-MRA: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)

Minnesota (10)
October 5 - Star Tribune: Obama by 18 (55%-37%)
October 3 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (47%-46%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)

New Hampshire (4)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 3 - St. Anselm/SRBI: Obama by 12 (49%-37%)
September 25 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
September 25 - 7News/Suffolk: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)

Pennsylvania (21)
October 4 - Morning Call Tracking: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 15 (54%-39%)
October 1 - Franklin & Marshall: Obama by 7 (45%-38%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
September 29 - Morning Call: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

Wisconsin (10)
October 1 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 9 (49%-40%)
September 25 - Research 2000: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)



Bush States in play:

Colorado (9)
October 5 - Denver Post: Tied (44%-44%)
October 2 - Ciruli Assoc.: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

Florida (27)
October 1 - Suffolk/WSVN: Obama by 4 (46%-42%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 30 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (47%-47%)
September 29 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)

Indiana (11)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
September 19 - Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)

Iowa (7)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Nevada (5)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

Missouri (11)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
September 26 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
September 26 - Post-Dispatch/R2000: McCain by 1 (47%-46%)

North Carolina (15)
October 3 - Elon: Obama by 2 (44%-42%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
September 29 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (47%-45%)

Ohio (20)
October 5 - Columbus Dispatch: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
September 30 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)

Virginia (13)
October 1 - Mason-Dixon: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
September 30 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)


Latest National Polls:

October 5 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
October 4 - Gallup Tracking: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
October 4 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 7 (48%-41%)
October 3 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 2 - Marist: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 1 - CBS News: Obama by 9 (50%-41%)
October 1 - Associated Press-GfK: Obama by 7 (48%-41%-Nader 2%-Barr 1%)
October 1 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 1 - Time: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 1 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 4 (49%-45%-Nader 2%-Barr 1%)
October 1 - Pew Research: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
September 30 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (48%-45%-Nader 3%-Barr 1%)
 
The latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 73.7
McCain 26.9

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 54.5
McCain 45.4

NewsFutures
Obama 61
McCain 39

Intrade
Obama 63.6
McCain 36.0

Minor improvement for McCain over the last couple of days, but not my much. It's going to take something major for McCain to overcome this deficit.
 
Gallup has Obama up by 7 today (50-43)...

Gallup Daily: Obama Leads for Ninth Straight Day, 50%-43%

This is telling because this poll also takes into account not one, but two, interviews since the VP debate on Thursday evening. It looks as if Palin's better than expected performance in her debate did essentially nothing to help McCain, at least according to Gallup. More polling on Monday will likely give a more complete picture of the situation.
 
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Rasmussen has Obama up by 8 today (52%-44%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point.
Click to expand...

As for the Presidential race, Obama now leads by two points among men. That’s the first time he has led among men all year and he also enjoys a fourteen point advantage among women. Obama attracts 12% of Republican voters and leads by eleven among those not affiliated with either major political party. McCain gets the vote from 11% of Democrats
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ETA:

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 217 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 264-185. There are currently six states in the Toss-Up category—Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama were to win all the states that are currently leaning in his direction, he would need to win only one of those six toss-up states to become the nation’s next President.
Click to expand...
 
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