Poll Vault

[MattusMaximus]

GOP gets the blame for economy woes

This is the first poll on this specific topic that I've seen, so it'd be interesting to see if there are any others.

CNN poll: GOP takes brunt of blame for economy; Obama gains

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- By a 2-to-1 ratio, Americans blame Republicans over Democrats for the financial crisis that has swept across the country the past few weeks, a new national poll suggests.

That may be contributing to better poll numbers for Sen. Barack Obama against Sen. John McCain in the race for the White House.

In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Monday afternoon, 47 percent of registered voters questioned said Republicans are more responsible for the problems currently facing financial institutions and the stock market; only 24 percent said Democrats are more responsible. ...

Wow. This could not only hurt McCain, but I wonder how much it'll negatively impact the GOP as they try to limit gains by the Democrats in Congress?

Has anyone else seen any other polls on this specific topic/question?

 

[Undesired Walrus]

When did Dukakis take a nosedive after his big lead?

 

[Pookster]

Other good news for Obama in the CNN poll ...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/22/cnn.poll/index.html

Where did Obama make his gains?

"In two core McCain constituencies: men, who now narrowly favor Obama, and seniors, who have also flipped from McCain to Obama," said Bill Schneider, a CNN senior political analyst.

When including people most likely to vote, the results are pretty much the same. Among likely voters, Obama has a four-point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent.

A couple of other factors in the survey appear to contribute to Obama's slight rise and McCain's slight drop in the polls. Fifty-three percent of those questioned say McCain, if elected, will mostly carry out the policies of President Bush, who remains extremely unpopular with most Americans. Bush's disapproval rating is up three points from the previous CNN/Opinion Research poll.

The survey also indicates Obama has recaptured the "change" factor. Just after the Republican convention, Obama's lead had shrunk to eight points when voters were asked which candidate would be more likely to bring change. His lead is up to 14 points in the new poll.

"Change has always been Obama's strong suit, but McCain and Palin clearly made inroads into that issue during the GOP convention," Holland said. "Palin, in particular, was seen as an agent of change when she made her first appearance on the national stage. That may be changing now."

 

[Pookster]

When did Dukakis take a nosedive after his big lead?

He reached the 17 point lead after the convention, but that was in late July of 1988. By election day, he was down by 7 points. But Bush did a great job of framing Dukakis as a liberal in a time when it was really taboo to be a liberal. I don't think there was any one point where he suddenly dropped. I think it was a steady decline over time, but I could be wrong.

 

[Pookster]

Interesting historical tidbit regarding Gallup polls around July 4th ...

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=ED60C36B-3048-5C12-004D1E289E0C84F4

In the post-war era, the Gallup polls taken closest to the Independence Day holiday have been correct in picking the popular vote winner two-thirds of the time, in 10 of 15 presidential contests, a Politico analysis found.

With the latest Gallup tracking poll (concluded July 2) showing Barack Obama ahead of John McCain 47 percent to 43 percent, count it as one more historical obstacle McCain need overcome.

Yet the GOP nominee can take solace from one fact: The eventual winner of the popular vote has trailed in the Gallup poll at this point in four of the past five presidential elections. The Gallup poll failed to prove prescient in 1968, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004.

 

[Pookster]

Colorado (9)
InAdv/PollPosition : Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)

The InAdv/PollPosition poll is the latest, but it is a big outlier. Most polls over the past month or so show it as a tossup.

A new Colorado poll ...

Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)


Other polls out:

Michigan:
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (51%-44%)

Minnesota:
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

Wisconsin:
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

North Carolina:
Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Tied (45%-45%)

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen has it at a tie today (48%-48%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Republicans typically win a majority of the White vote and this year is no exception. Among White Democrats, 78% say they’ll vote for Obama, 17% for McCain. Obama leads among non-White voters by a 71% to 24% margin.

 

[Pookster]

New poll for Florida with some interesting details ...

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/23/1435316.aspx

If you want to know why Obama is doing his debate prep today in -- of all places -- Tampa, FL, look no further than the latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up in the Sunshine State by two points, 47%-45%. Yet inside those numbers, Obama leads McCain in the Tampa Bay area (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, and Polk counties) by a 49%-43% margin. Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says the key to winning Florida statewide is usually through Tampa Bay, and Obama’s six-point lead in the area explains why he’s ahead in this poll. Moreover, outside of Nevada, there is probably not another state that has been hurt more by the housing and credit crunch, and that may be benefiting Obama right now. Also potentially troublesome for McCain in this must-win GOP state, he leads by just six among Hispanics (49%-43%), which in Florida is made up of a majority of Cubans. (If Obama does pick off younger Cubans, he may close the overall gap thanks to his large lead among non-Cuban Hispanics in the I-4 corridor.) Also, McCain's four-point lead among seniors (48%-44%) is not as big as he needs it to be to offset the electorate-changing demographics among blacks and young voters.

Maybe Florida really is in play. Time will tell.

 

[aerosolben]

I haven't done the numbers this year, but I last calculated that you could win ten states by 1 vote each, and then lose 40 by 10,000,000 and win the presidency. I'll have to check the numbers again.

11 this year. Sorry, you have to cater to NJ too.

And you might have trouble losing some of those 40 states by 10 million votes. And by some of them, I mean all of them. You might consider dropping a 0, there.

 

[David Wong]

I do expect a McCain bounce after Friday's debate, simply because it's the foreign policy debate.

That's where McCain is strong, not because of any specific stance, but because in general Republicans win on foreign policy and of course McCain has all the experience there.

If I was a betting man I'd say that after the polls come in from the first debate a week from now we'll be back to a dead tie, with Obama hoping to regain the lead with the remaining debates.

 

[not_so_new]

I do expect a McCain bounce after Friday's debate, simply because it's the foreign policy debate.

That's where McCain is strong, not because of any specific stance, but because in general Republicans win on foreign policy and of course McCain has all the experience there.

If I was a betting man I'd say that after the polls come in from the first debate a week from now we'll be back to a dead tie, with Obama hoping to regain the lead with the remaining debates.

I mostly agree.. with three exceptions.

1) This race might be different but debates usually don't sway elections all that much unless there is a huge gaff (see below). Again, this race may be different.

2) McCain might have had the edge on this debate at one point but I seriously question his "togetherness" right now.

After the Shiite and Sunny, mixup earlier in the year and then the Spain interview tumble it makes me wounder if the campaign trail is starting to get to him. A huge gaff could cost him big. Obama can afford a gaff on foreign policy because it is already assumed he is behind on this point anyway, McCain has made this the strong selling point of his candidacy.

3) Often the "winner" of the debate is not the one with the most knowledge, it is the person who comes accost as the most likable. Obama might be an "elitist" but he is a pretty charismatic individual, I would not count him out on questions of policy and that is before his charisma comes into play.

Couple this with the fact that McCain's saber rattling style might just wear a little thin and only associate him with Bush in people's minds.

Again, I wouldn't be too quick to give this debate to McCain before it plays out. I could very easly see this as a draw and we might end up with the same polling numbers on the other side.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Other good news for Obama in the CNN poll ...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/22/cnn.poll/index.html

Wow, if that bears out in other polls - that McCain is starting to lose among both men and seniors - then I think it's going to be in the bag for Obama. I think this is especially bad for McCain now because in many states early voting will soon begin, if not already.

We'll see.

Latest from the prediction markets:

IEM-WTA
Obama 62.0
McCain 38.2

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 51.0
McCain 46.7

Intrade
Obama 52.3
McCain 46.1

NewsFutures
Obama 55
McCain 45

 

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama's lead at 3 today (47%-44%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110608/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-3Point-Edge.aspx

Obama has averaged 46.3% support from registered voters since June 6, similar to his current 47%. McCain has averaged 43.5% over the same period, similar to his current 44%. The three-point lead for Obama in today's report precisely matches the average positioning of the candidates across the entire post-primaries period to date.

 

[Gnu World Order]

Wow, if that bears out in other polls - that McCain is starting to lose among both men and seniors - then I think it's going to be in the bag for Obama. I think this is especially bad for McCain now because in many states early voting will soon begin, if not already.

NOTHING is in the bag, at least until after all of the debates, and arguably not until election night. Remember, on Election Day of 2004, many people thought Kerry had it in 2004 based on the exit polls from THAT DAY, but the early polls turned out to be wrong.

Today, Gallup shows a tightening, to 47-44 Obama.

 

[gdnp]

It will be interesting to see how Iraq plays out in the debate: McCain will argue the surge was right, Obama will try to minimize the surge and argue it's time to get out. I don't see any other foreign policy issue divisive enough to throw many votes. Obama just needs to look presidential, knowledgeable, and thoughtful and he may "win" just by blunting the "inexperienced" charge. He just needs to demonstrate a command of the issues.

 

[David Wong]

Gallup has Obama's lead at 3 today (47%-44%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110608/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-3Point-Edge.aspx

As Gallup points out, we're right back where we were before the campaign. Rewind back a year and a half, before ANY of this, and you saw the same 3-point lead for Obama in a then-hypothetical matchup with McCain.

Hundreds of millions of dollars with of ads, thousands of hours of news coverage, tens of thousands of newspaper stories, all the gaffes, the conventions, the VP picks, the hundred and hundreds of speeches and campaign stops.

And the polls have not moved an inch.

They've bounced, there have been tremors, and outliers. But in the long run, everything combined, nothing. Rock solid.

Obama by 3.

 

[MattusMaximus]

NOTHING is in the bag, at least until after all of the debates, and arguably not until election night. Remember, on Election Day of 2004, many people thought Kerry had it in 2004 based on the exit polls from THAT DAY, but the early polls turned out to be wrong.

Today, Gallup shows a tightening, to 47-44 Obama.

True enough. No one should go counting any chickens until after Election Day. And I don't think Obama's campaign is going to make past mistakes made by other Democratic candidates, such as resting on their laurels before Nov. 4th - they're too smart for that.

 

[Wangler]

Clinton supporters balking?

Here is another interesting poll tidbit:

Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters

From the linked article:

"The problem that supporters of Clinton, the New York senator, have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues."

 

[Wangler]

This graphic from the same story is also interesting; look at the bottom-most graphic.

 

[Pookster]

State of the States ... at least the interesting ones ...


Kerry States in play:

Michigan (17)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)

Minnesota (10)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 22 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)

New Hampshire (4)
September 22 - University of New Hampshire: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
September 11 - CNN/Time: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Pennsylvania (21)
September 22 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 19 - Marist: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

Wisconsin (10)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)




Bush States in play:

Colorado (9)
September 23 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
September 18 - InAdv/PollPosition : Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)

Florida (27)
September 23 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
September 21 - Sun-Sentinel/R2000: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
September 21 - Miami Herald/SP Times: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Tied (44%-44%)

Iowa (7)
September 21 - Quad-City Times/R2000: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)
September 19 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

Nevada (5)
September 22 - Suffolk University: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)

New Mexico (5)
September 22 - PPP (D): Obama by 11 (53%-42%)
September 18 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

North Carolina (15)
September 22 - Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
September 22 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Tied (45%-45%)

Ohio (20)
September 23 - InAdv/PollPosition: Tied (46%-46%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 4 (50%-46%)
September 21 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 6 (48%-42%)
September 19 - Marist: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: McCain by 1 (42%-41%)

Virginia (13)
September 22 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 22 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (50%-48%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: McCain by 7 (48%-41%)