ktesibios
Worthless Aging Hippie
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2002
- Messages
- 1,493
First off, claiming that "the police use psychics" or "the police do not use psychics" on the basis of individual cases or statements from individual police agencies is stretching things way too far.
There ain't any monolithic creature known as "the police". There are hundreds, at least, of agencies involved in police work, made up of many thousands of individuals. The only way one could make a gneneralization about police use of psychics would be to poll all of the relevant agencies in a given area about their experiences and policies, and you would still only be able to generalize to the extent of your sample.
Also, there's a difference between "solving" a case, in the sense of figuring out what happened to the satisfaction of an individual investigator, and assembling a body of evidence that can prove the solution to the satisfaction of the courts.
The logic involved in "solving" a crime is closely related to that used in troubleshooting a problem in a technical system, or in diagnosing a disease. When you're at the stage of spinning working hypotheses which you can test and eliminate, very few holds are barred. A possibility could be suggested by the evidence gathered so far based on rigorous deduction, it could be a leap based on previous experience ("I've seen that before. Last time the answer was-----. I'll test that first."). It could be a guess, educated or otherwise- it could even be brought to mind by a suggestion from someone with no particular knowledge on which to base their suggestion. The important thing is that the hypothesis, once formed, has to be tested against reality- does it account for the evidence in hand, does it predict other findings and are the predictions found to be true?
The fact that a self-proclaimed psychic makes a suggestion that leads to a hypothesis which is subsequently found to be valid doesn't demonstrate per se that the psychic actually used paranormal powers in making that suggestion.
If you're curious about how a charlatan can make an accurate prediction and dress it up as paranormal, the tale of Thrasyllus' first meeting with Tiberius, in Tacitus' "Annals of Imperial Rome" is very instructive.
There ain't any monolithic creature known as "the police". There are hundreds, at least, of agencies involved in police work, made up of many thousands of individuals. The only way one could make a gneneralization about police use of psychics would be to poll all of the relevant agencies in a given area about their experiences and policies, and you would still only be able to generalize to the extent of your sample.
Also, there's a difference between "solving" a case, in the sense of figuring out what happened to the satisfaction of an individual investigator, and assembling a body of evidence that can prove the solution to the satisfaction of the courts.
The logic involved in "solving" a crime is closely related to that used in troubleshooting a problem in a technical system, or in diagnosing a disease. When you're at the stage of spinning working hypotheses which you can test and eliminate, very few holds are barred. A possibility could be suggested by the evidence gathered so far based on rigorous deduction, it could be a leap based on previous experience ("I've seen that before. Last time the answer was-----. I'll test that first."). It could be a guess, educated or otherwise- it could even be brought to mind by a suggestion from someone with no particular knowledge on which to base their suggestion. The important thing is that the hypothesis, once formed, has to be tested against reality- does it account for the evidence in hand, does it predict other findings and are the predictions found to be true?
The fact that a self-proclaimed psychic makes a suggestion that leads to a hypothesis which is subsequently found to be valid doesn't demonstrate per se that the psychic actually used paranormal powers in making that suggestion.
If you're curious about how a charlatan can make an accurate prediction and dress it up as paranormal, the tale of Thrasyllus' first meeting with Tiberius, in Tacitus' "Annals of Imperial Rome" is very instructive.
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