I concur, the shape of Val's plume is more consistent with and "infancy" plume, then one that has shifted quite a distant and quite an elasped time.
Actually, this depends on a lot of factors. How quickly a plume (or column, or cloud, or any other gaseous structure) spreads and how well it keeps its shape depend on a number of factors, notably:
1) Temperature of the cloud and the surrounding air.
2) Particulate size of the cloud components and their state (particulates, liquids, gasses), and the various molecular weights and other factors.
3) Wind speed and direction.
4) Variability of winds/presence of "gusting" or different-direction of ground-level winds vs. higher wind
5) Initial density of the cloud
6) Humidity (as others have mentioned).
Those are the major ones. Changes in these can affect how the cloud reacts and how long it maintains shape.
Also, having seen ordinance blasts numerous times from distances of 1/2 mile to 10 miles for >2000 lb. shots, this doesn't really resemble an ordinance plume. It was most likely caused by some type of hydrocarbon/incendiary. Blast plumes from ordinance are formed from the debris the ordinance produces, with a little bit of smoke. They'll take the color of the ground/material in/on which they are detonated.
Not to mention that, at the distance of this shot (about 2 miles), that would've been a significant amount or ordinance. Windows would have been shattered.
It's fairly conclusive that this isn't an ordinance plume, but was caused by an incendiary. From the mushroom shape, you can go on to deduce that it was a rapidly-burning incendiary spread across an area, as one would expect from the high-speed impact of fuel tanks (as an airline crash) or an FAE (as others have mentioned). Napalm could also do similar, or simply spreading a large amount of fuel and igniting with a LOT of multiple heat sources simultaneously.
And again, based on my experience in actual demolitions and blasts, on days with still air the clouds could keep the mushroom shape for upwards of a minute, and drift a fair amount in that time.