Killtown also PM'd me to inform me that, improbable as it may seem, the rest of you needed my "help." False alarm, to my intense surprise.
The diplomatic way to ask, Killtown, would have been as follows: "Hey, we just determined the fuel on board was about 5600 gallons, roughly half of what we thought. How does that affect your calculated estimates?" I'd have taken no affront at all to such a request.
The answer is, no effect. My calculations for fireball width at ignition are absolutely insensitive to the amount of fuel on board, provided it is "large," and 5600 gallons is still large for purposes of my estimate. I only estimated how far it could splatter. Now, the amount of fuel certainly changes the energy after it ignites, and will have some effect on later evolution of the smoke ring, but that's a different step entirely.
As I've tried to explain, Killtown, how you got the numbers is more important than the numbers themselves. Show your work. As you compile your numbers, if you keep track of where they came from, you can see for yourself whether or not you've got it right.
And you don't. You are still mixing model predictions with the observations from Val's picture. You can't do that. If you want to do a min/max calculation, you have to calculate all the numbers. Val's picture is an example of what did happen, it doesn't define the extremes of what might have happened.
Killtown, for your next assignment, go back and find where each of your numbers came from. In your next summary, write a sentence associated with each number that explains who gave it to you, how the number was calculated, and where we can find its source. You are also welcome to add your own opinions on each number, but only if you explain why you feel like you do.
These are called "references." Without them, you're just pulling numbers out of your hat. Again.
