Perry no longer thinks SS is a Ponzi scheme.

Not pedantic, reality. It's been adjusted a couple of times. You are welcome to have faith and trust in big brother to look out for your future, but don't think others share your attitude.

Pedantic. The AMT threshold has been adjusted every time it needed to be adjusted. Your sole objection seems to be that there is no mandated mechanism for automatic adjustment - a mechanism that has never been necessary, not once.

Sure there is. Namely stress resulting from insufficient money to pay bills.

Sorry.... I stipulated logical


That's no different than looking at a 100 year history of performance of the public company Montgomery Wards and making projections. Doesn't work. You look at the financial statements for the last several years, both income and balance and cash flow, and on this basis guess at short, medium and long term future possibilities.

oh...by the way...Montgomery Wards is....gone.

There is no similarity between a failed private company and the US Goverments system of taxation in this instance. That might be a top-ten nominee for worst analogy ever.
 
Not pedantic, reality. It's been adjusted a couple of times. You are welcome to have faith and trust in big brother to look out for your future, but don't think others share your attitude.
Yees, there are plenty of Chicken Littles out there.

Sure there is. Namely stress resulting from insufficient money to pay bills.
At least SS is bringing in money. What about Defense?

That's no different than looking at a 100 year history of performance of the public company Montgomery Wards and making projections. Doesn't work. You look at the financial statements for the last several years, both income and balance and cash flow, and on this basis guess at short, medium and long term future possibilities.

oh...by the way...Montgomery Wards is....gone.

Well, except that Mongomery Wards does not in any way equal the Federal Government. Your comparison is worthless.
 
Yees, there are plenty of Chicken Littles out there.


At least SS is bringing in money. What about Defense?

Well, except that Mongomery Wards does not in any way equal the Federal Government. Your comparison is worthless.
Just saying that does not make it true.

What do you think is going on? The Treasury has different pots of money to print checks with? Somehow if we spend 40% more than we take in, some of those pots will have money and some won't?

There's a Chicken in every pot?
 
There is no similarity between a failed private company and the US Goverments system of taxation in this instance. That might be a top-ten nominee for worst analogy ever.

But it is a good argument for not trusting our retirement to the mythical "free market."
 
What do you think is going on? The Treasury has different pots of money to print checks with? Somehow if we spend 40% more than we take in, some of those pots will have money and some won't?

Are you suggesting that the Social Security Administration is responsible for Pentagon contracts?

Of course we have separate accounting for separate programs.

And the Social Security system is still solvent. Even if nothing changes, the Trust Fund will continue to grow for about 10 more years. There is nothing fundamentally flawed about the system.

And--back to the topic--it most certainly is not a Ponzi Scheme. If your argument that it is a Ponzi Scheme relies on "Social Security" being indistinguishable (for the sake of evaluating its fiscal soundness anyway) from the entire federal government, then aren't we back to what I've said for a long time: the only characteristic Social Security has in common with a Ponzi Scheme is that which is common to pretty much every government program financed with by taxes? That is, the people who pay the money in don't necessarily get the benefit of that money in exact proportion to what they paid.
 
Well, except that Mongomery Wards does not in any way equal the Federal Government. Your comparison is worthless.

For that matter, Social Security does not equal the Federal Government either.

Haze seems to think it's impossible to evaluate Social Security itself.
 
For that matter, Social Security does not equal the Federal Government either.

Haze seems to think it's impossible to evaluate Social Security itself.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20078789-503544.html

President Obama on Tuesday said he cannot guarantee that retirees will receive their Social Security checks August 3 if Democrats and Republicans in Washington do not reach an agreement on reducing the deficit in the coming weeks.

"I cannot guarantee that those checks go out on August 3rd if we haven't resolved this issue. Because there may simply not be the money in the coffers to do it," Mr. Obama said in an interview with CBS Evening News anchor Scott Pelley, according to excerpts released by CBS News.


But don't worry, because you just continue printing and borrowing money to the tune of 40% more than revenue and then those checks will go out. That might work for a year or two, but it won't work for ten years.
 
But don't worry, because you just continue printing and borrowing money to the tune of 40% more than revenue and then those checks will go out. That might work for a year or two, but it won't work for ten years.

It's clear to me that Social Security needs to be a separate agency
like the Federal Reserve setting taxes and benefits as needed.

The second sentence interests me me though.

Given in that time we'll probably go through a double dip recession
and then an economic expansion. What causes the time varying amount
of borrowed money as a percentage of the budget to stop working after
ten years.

Do you have a chart generated by an econometric equations that shows this effect?
 
But don't worry, because you just continue printing and borrowing money to the tune of 40% more than revenue and then those checks will go out. That might work for a year or two, but it won't work for ten years.

Well, of course not. But then, if all of the republicon crybabies in congress take a long walk on a short pier next November, the money can be put back into the coffers.

Obama and the Democratic candidates for congress just need to get the message out to their constituencies, that the republitard dringo representin g them thought it was a good idea to not pay Social Security or fix the falling-apart interstate highways in their home districts because they needed to make up for the money they were giving away to rich SOBs who claim to live in a mailbox in the Bahamas.

That should solve that problem.
 
It's clear to me that Social Security needs to be a separate agency
like the Federal Reserve setting taxes and benefits as needed.

The second sentence interests me me though.

Given in that time we'll probably go through a double dip recession
and then an economic expansion. What causes the time varying amount
of borrowed money as a percentage of the budget to stop working after
ten years.

Do you have a chart generated by an econometric equations that shows this effect?
I could whip one out quick enough, but just think it through..using constant value dollars for convenience.

15T + 1.5T/year * 10 years = 30T
Interest rate (from CBO) 10 years off 4-5% (very unrealistically low, but we use it).

2021 interest payment 30T * 5% = 1.5T

Total 1040 revenue to the Federal government is about 1T.

So in 2021, where does SS stand?
 
President Obama on Tuesday said he cannot guarantee that retirees will receive their Social Security checks August 3 if Democrats and Republicans in Washington do not reach an agreement on reducing the deficit in the coming weeks.

And that was a different issue altogether. It was about a shut down of the federal government. Similarly, if the USPS stopped delivering mail for a month, no one would receive mailed Social Security checks.

That doesn't change the fact that we can certainly evaluate the solvency of Social Security itself. I've seen no evidence that it is inherently flawed. Owing to the prudence of the law in investing surpluses in a Social Security Trust Fund over the years, we've got at least a decade to accommodate the demographic changes.

So again, I ask you, is your argument that Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme the same thing now as saying that the entire federal government is a Ponzi Scheme?
 
I could whip one out quick enough, but just think it through..using constant value dollars for convenience.

15T + 1.5T/year * 10 years = 30T
Interest rate (from CBO) 10 years off 4-5% (very unrealistically low, but we use it).

2021 interest payment 30T * 5% = 1.5T

Total 1040 revenue to the Federal government is about 1T.

So in 2021, where does SS stand?

Ignoring whether your numbers are right or not, it'll be fine, because SS won't need 1.5 trillion. It just needs a tiny, tiny trickle of the interest in addition to the revenue already coming in for it.
 
Because it really is a tax-financed government safety net program. Some people can't possibly pay in the same amount they'll take out. (The example I mentioned earlier of someone who only worked a relatively short time, then got permanently disabled and will collect SSD all the way until retirement age--and then collect regular SS at that point.) It is not and never was an IRA.

There's some misunderstanding: I wasn't using a dollar-for-dollar ratio. The point regarding equality is that (assuming the earnings cap is removed) we'll all pay the same rate of taxation, and because of that, we should all receive the same benefits if/when we retire.

There is and never has been a specific guarantee of how much you'll get back. In fact, it depends primarily on how long you stay alive for most people.

I've never said otherwise.

I agree with you on this point. A regressive tax doesn't make sense to me. But I fail to see how that is analogous to means testing. In fact, I think the current means testing we have is also "regressive" in that it punishes lower income people who are actually working for their money and have to be concerned about not making too much lest they lose their SS benefit. For retirees making high incomes from investments, there generally is no need to take a part time job in retirement.

Honestly, it goes back to every other point made in these forums regarding taxing wages vs. capital. The investments are a risk, working for a wage is (largely) not. Personally, I think it depends on how long those investments have been held. I can understand if you feel differently. However, SS was designed on the premise that benefits are for people in too poor of health to continue working. Holding onto stock for decades and drawing yearly dividends can be done by someone who is bedridden. However, if you are able to work then you should do that. And while I too can think of outlier, pull-on-you-heartstring stories, the fact that we retire years earlier - even while living much longer - is testament that many want to both have and eat cake.

Again, we already have means testing, but it's only based on work earnings. If you keep working, and earn enough, you don't get your SS benefit. But if you don't work, and earn 6 figures in investment income, you do. That doesn't make much sense.

This is equivocation. You're describing a non-retired worker as retiree. The simpler fix is to treat capital the same as wages, not means-testing the program. We can go through that debate if you'd like in another thread.

The reason payouts aren't "equitable" (in that they go back in exactly the same amounts as money paid in) is that SS isn't an investment. It has to do things investments can't. It already isn't "equitable" in the sense you mean, since there are people who already get more in benefit than they paid in (by living long, or being disabled for a long time).

This goes back to the top - I wasn't implying a ratio between how much you paid vs. how much you get back individually. I mean that we all paid the same 3% in, and we all should draw the same 1K per mo. provided you aren't otherwise employed. This ensures all citizens have skin in the game, and ultimately serves to keep the program in existence. The wealthy count on SS as well when they manage their retirement.

At any rate, my primary point is that there is not a legal barrier to implementing means testing that takes into account pensions, annuities and all other investment income. No more than there is a barrier to what you suggest, simply raising the age of eligibility for all retirees. Contrary to what some are saying, SS is not a contract or "insurance policy" between the government and individual workers.

In a formal sense, yes and I've never said otherwise. Informally...not so much. Many do view it as a contract, the entitlement attitude. I paid for it, I better damn-well get it.


I'm OK with almost any of these various means of guaranteeing the long-term solvency of SS (but not Perry's idea--making the tax optional thereby effectively eliminating Social Security). Personally, I don't see any strong arguments against means testing. If we're going to reduce the overall benefits paid, I see no reason to ignore the fact that benefits currently go to some people who don't need it, while any benefit cuts to others could be really traumatic.

You aren't however, cutting poor peoples paychecks. Rather, with an increase in the retirement age, you are forcing them to forgo retirement for at least 2 more years. This is entirely logical given our historical and projected increases in life expectancy and average retirement age.

As a side note: I am not in favor of Perry's plan. While in a college business class a couple years ago, my then-teacher asked students to raise their hand if they thought SS would be around for them when they retired. Very few of us raised our hands. I honestly don't know of what significance that was as a story in the context of our discussion, but there it is.
 
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The republicons are deliberately spreading disinformation about SS so that we will abandon it rather than elect people who will fix it.

I don't care how much longer some pasty-faced dweeb in accounting is likely to live and draw SS. By 65, the average working schlub has a pain in at least two joints that is telling him it is time to give it up and go play with the grandkids so that their parents can get some rest between shifts at work.

Check the increase in life expectancy based on ecconomic status. The people who most need SS are not going to live much longer now than they were fifty years ago.

Just lift the cap and those people who think they are going to live forever can go on maing money and contributing to the system for as long as they want. The increase in what they get back is probably not going to be that significant any way.

We could also pay in at a lower rate, giving the working class a little more disposable income without endangering the system.
 
Ignoring whether your numbers are right or not, it'll be fine, because SS won't need 1.5 trillion. It just needs a tiny, tiny trickle of the interest in addition to the revenue already coming in for it.

Your comment seems to show no understanding of post #393, which is first month, first semester undergraduate finance level.

Taking it from another point of view, shortly SS will consume all revenue collected from 1040 returns. Nothing left for any other stuff - foreign aid, R&D, military...

Your stateroom in the Titanic is only tilting a little bit? And everytime it tilted before, it just swung back the other way in a little while? Everything is FINE.

:)
 
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There's some misunderstanding: I wasn't using a dollar-for-dollar ratio. The point regarding equality is that (assuming the earnings cap is removed) we'll all pay the same rate of taxation, and because of that, we should all receive the same benefits if/when we retire.
I understand. But the fact is, the system is at least partly need-based. There is already means testing involved, but only for work earnings.

Why is not considering investment income not "equitable" when we consider work earnings in determining eligibility to receive benefits?

And there are plenty other tax-financed programs that don't consider amount of contribution at all. And, as I've said, if we're making changes in the system--such as reducing total benefits paid out by pushing back the retirement age--there's no reason we can't also change it so that we don't send checks to people who have no need for them.

There are plenty of other tax-based social programs that don't consider contribution at all in apportioning spending.

However, SS was designed on the premise that benefits are for people in too poor of health to continue working. Holding onto stock for decades and drawing yearly dividends can be done by someone who is bedridden. However, if you are able to work then you should do that.
So wealthy people should be allowed to retire (and collect public money) at a younger age than poor people?

And I sure hope that's not the principle behind SS. We would all be working at greeters at Walmart into our 80s.



This goes back to the top - I wasn't implying a ratio between how much you paid vs. how much you get back individually. I mean that we all paid the same 3% in, and we all should draw the same 1K per mo. provided you aren't otherwise employed. This ensures all citizens have skin in the game, and ultimately serves to keep the program in existence. The wealthy count on SS as well when they manage their retirement.
Ah--my mistake. I thought you were defending something more like the status quo. Yes, I would prefer your idea over the status quo. At any rate, if we're going to make changes that are that dramatic, I don't see why we shouldn't also implement means testing. I see no reason to be obliged to give public money to people who don't need it. (And once you've paid your taxes, it most definitely is public money.)

And again, we have the luxury of a decent buffer from the Trust Fund that we can phase in any of these changes gradually so that no one's financial planning is severely messed up.



Informally...not so much. Many do view it as a contract, the entitlement attitude. I paid for it, I better damn-well get it.

And I think that's in part what Perry is playing on in calling it a Ponzi Scheme. The fact is, until recently nearly all benefits were paid out of taxes collected. It's only the changing demographics that are forcing us into chronically relying on cashing in Trust Fund investments to pay benefits. When we pay in our taxes, that money immediately goes out in benefits (unless there is a surplus). The money is not sitting somewhere in a reserved account awaiting my retirement. That many people think that's how it works is what Perry is playing on.




You aren't however, cutting poor peoples paychecks. Rather, with an increase in the retirement age, you are forcing them to forgo retirement for at least 2 more years. This is entirely logical given our historical and projected increases in life expectancy and average retirement age.
I understand, but it is reducing benefits paid to everyone equally across the board. (Not in per month, but overall.) If we're going to make those changes (and I agree we ought raise the age for receiving full SS benefits), there's no reason we can't make other changes as well.

[ETA: There's also Lefty's point that the increase in life expectancy isn't actually uniform regardless of socio-economic-status.]

As a side note: I am not in favor of Perry's plan. While in a college business class a couple years ago, my then-teacher asked students to raise their hand if they thought SS would be around for them when they retired. Very few of us raised our hands. I honestly don't know of what significance that was as a story in the context of our discussion, but there it is.
I think I understand. If SS were voluntary, and the confidence young people have in its being there for their retirement is weak, they'd all opt out, and Social Security would disappear. That's why I say Perry's plan is not to fix Social Security, but to get rid of it.

I think that's also why he uses the "Ponzi Scheme" rhetoric. You don't fix a fraudulent system--you get rid of it as soon as possible.
 
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Ignoring whether your numbers are right or not, it'll be fine, because SS won't need 1.5 trillion. It just needs a tiny, tiny trickle of the interest in addition to the revenue already coming in for it.

Mhaze continues to lump the solvency of Social Security with the total federal debt problem as if the two were in fact one problem.
 
Quote:
As a side note: I am not in favor of Perry's plan. While in a college business class a couple years ago, my then-teacher asked students to raise their hand if they thought SS would be around for them when they retired. Very few of us raised our hands. I honestly don't know of what significance that was as a story in the context of our discussion, but there it is.


....
I think I understand. If SS were voluntary, and the confidence young people have in its being there for their retirement is weak, they'd all opt out, and Social Security would disappear. That's why I say Perry's plan is not to fix Social Security, but to get rid of it.

I think that's also why he uses the "Ponzi Scheme" rhetoric. You don't fix a fraudulent system--you get rid of it as soon as possible.

What it means is that the general population, or at least that in the class, has already rejected SS as a future income stream for them. What's left is a confiscatory tax for the benefits of others. Traditionally, one expected about 40% of retirement income to be SS, and those in the class, expect it to be way lower, maybe zero.

What's going on is the reshaping of SS into something that's a government charity for an exclusive subgroup backed by a mandatory tax, where in the past, SS was something that almost everyone benefited from.

So actually, it's liberals such as JoeTheJuggler that have, and are, "changing SS".

They just want to change it "their way, and not Perry's way". But Perry did not specify a particular scheme or plan. He simply said "we need to have an honest discussion about SS".

Progressive liberals do not want an honest discussion.
 
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I don't care how much longer some pasty-faced dweeb in accounting is likely to live and draw SS. By 65, the average working schlub has a pain in at least two joints that is telling him it is time to give it up and go play with the grandkids so that their parents can get some rest between shifts at work.

Assertion without evidence. The fact is that when the program first started, people only drew SS for abougt 6-8 years. Now it's over 14 years. That is not what the system was designed for.

Check the increase in life expectancy based on ecconomic status. The people who most need SS are not going to live much longer now than they were fifty years ago.

Not true according to the CBO.

The increase In 1980, the difference in life expectancy at age 65 between the highest and lowest socioeconomic groups was 0.3 years. By 2000, the difference had grown to 1.6 years.

From birth, the difference is about 4 years, depending on how you measure it. That means that people in the bottom 10% of income earners are still living about 5 years longer than their wealthy counterparts did in 1960.

We could also pay in at a lower rate, giving the working class a little more disposable income without endangering the system.

I actually agree with this. In my first post in this thread, I advocated that when lifting the earnings cap, rates should fall. This puts more money in the pockets of lower wager earners to spend, and because it is a relatively small amount when received per paycheck, it will not alter spending decisions the way rebates or other tax-cutting stimulus plans do.
 

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