Perry no longer thinks SS is a Ponzi scheme.

JoetheJuggler.
So? I think he is too pessimistic.

See, that's a difference between you lot and Democrats and assorterd other progressives. We aren't locked into a single mindset, nor bound by superstitious dogma like piddle-down or the magic hand of the market. We are required to think.
 
But I can be trusted with the funds for my retirement.
But you can't guarantee a return on your investment. My mother-in-law had good investments that tanked after the financial institutions used her money and everyone else's to gamble with and then she lost her house. Thankfully she had SS.
 
Time for an "honest discussion" about SS?

:)

Yes. You should begin to participate.

So far, your posts have been misleading on the subject. I do not believe your misinformation was intentional, however - I think you are honestly confused about what SS is, how it is funded, the problems it faces, and why it faces them.

You could begin by acknowledging that no person has ever been guaranteed a specific benefit; that SS has its own line of funding; that SS is solvent today; that the fixes for SS are achievable without fundamentaly changing the nature of SS. These are facts, after all.

From there, we can discuss the specific combination of increasing revenue and changing benefits that are necessary to get SS over the (temporary) BBB.
 
Yes. You should begin to participate.

So far, your posts have been misleading on the subject. I do not believe your misinformation was intentional, however - I think you are honestly confused about what SS is, how it is funded, the problems it faces, and why it faces them.

You could begin by acknowledging that no person has ever been guaranteed a specific benefit; that SS has its own line of funding; that SS is solvent today; that the fixes for SS are achievable without fundamentaly changing the nature of SS. These are facts, after all.

From there, we can discuss the specific combination of increasing revenue and changing benefits that are necessary to get SS over the (temporary) BBB.
I'm sure your stateroom in the Titanic is very nice, and that the staff has not forgotten to clean it daily.

:)
 
I'm sure your stateroom in the Titanic is very nice, and that the staff has not forgotten to clean it daily.

:)

Um, you are the one ignoring the 80 years of precedent with Social Security. You are the one ignoring CBO reports on the state of social security. Sarge is spot on.
 
I'm sure your stateroom in the Titanic is very nice, and that the staff has not forgotten to clean it daily.

:)

So do you believe that the Social Security program itself is sound, or that the problem is the way the rest of the government is run?

To my mind, it is a question of Social Security being run responsibly, creating a surplus to pay for its future obligations, and investing that money is US treatury bonds. The rest of the government said, "Woohoo! Free Money!" and gave out massive tax cuts to the rich and spent zillions on weapons systems. Now Social Security is about to ask for its money back, and everyone is trying to find a way to "fix" Social Security in such a way as to keep money coming in to keep the Pentagon bloated and tax rates on the rich low.

The Social Security program has run this way for almost thirty years now. Lower and middle class American workers give hundreds of billions of dollars a year to lower and middle class American retirees, and the rich get a cut of the surplus. The GOP is perfectly happy to have this arrangement go on forever. But soon it will be changing to lower and middle class retirees getting hundreds of billions of dollars a year for lower and middle class workers, with the rich paying a part of the deficit. This is a monstrous evil that must be stopped at all costs.
 
So? I think he is too pessimistic.

No. I would just point out that Social Security is not an insurance policy.

It is a taxpayer funded safety net for retirees and the disabled.

There is no legal barrier to implementing means testing (denying SS benefits to those who don't need it) based on a perceived contract that binds the government to giving a certain benefit to any certain people.

This is also the main reason why SS is not a Ponzi Scheme or even like a Ponzi Scheme. It's not an investment. There is no deception going on (except for people like Perry who spread misinformation).

ETA: And I think we're talking at cross purposes a little bit. To clarify: yes, we are obliged under current law to send benefit checks out even to those who don't need it. However, that obligation is just current legislation, and not a contract or an insurance policy with individuals. Congress can change the law (implement means testings that includes investment income rather than just regular earnings--like by hourly wages as in current means testing). There is no contract or insurance policy that will prohibit Congress from implement means testing and denying benefits to people who have plenty of other income in retirement.
 
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But you can't guarantee a return on your investment. My mother-in-law had good investments that tanked after the financial institutions used her money and everyone else's to gamble with and then she lost her house. Thankfully she had SS.

And again, since SS isn't an investment, it is asked to do things an investment can't do like send out those first benefit checks back in '37 or provide SSD to someone permanently disabled for life even if they'd only worked a short time prior to that.
 
Um, you are the one ignoring the 80 years of precedent with Social Security. You are the one ignoring CBO reports on the state of social security. Sarge is spot on.

Exactly. And at least one other person in this thread assumed Social Security is inherently "flawed". What's funny is they'll even quote from the SS Trustees Report pointing out the problem the Trust Fund faces due to changing demographics, but they ignore the part that says it's not such a difficult problem to remedy and we've got time enough to phase something in so that any changes can be made gradually and not screw up anyone's financial planning very much.
 
But you can't guarantee a return on your investment. My mother-in-law had good investments that tanked after the financial institutions used her money and everyone else's to gamble with and then she lost her house. Thankfully she had SS.

And again, since SS isn't an investment, it is asked to do things an investment can't do like send out those first benefit checks back in '37 or provide SSD to someone permanently disabled for life even if they'd only worked a short time prior to that.
Exactly, the argument, IMO, is dead. Working all your life only to find out you are homeless because the folks in charge of your money gamble with it like drunk sailors just doesn't cut it. It's called "risk" for a reason.
 
So do you believe that the Social Security program itself is sound, or that the problem is the way the rest of the government is run?

To my mind, it is a question of Social Security being run responsibly, creating a surplus to pay for its future obligations, and investing that money is US treatury bonds. The rest of the government said, "Woohoo! Free Money!" and gave out massive tax cuts to the rich and spent zillions on weapons systems. Now Social Security is about to ask for its money back, and everyone is trying to find a way to "fix" Social Security in such a way as to keep money coming in to keep the Pentagon bloated and tax rates on the rich low.......

All that's pretty much irrelevant, since IF I ran an investment firm, and invested all the money in the bonds of company X, then the fortunes of my clients would be exactly related to the fortunes of company X.
 
So you're saying even though you don't need it, you're planning based on an estimated benefit. Phasing changes in over time should soften any arguable problem that causes. (Sorry, but you're not going to get much sympathy from people who don't get nice pensions like that--meaning most people. It's not a great hardship compared to letting the program fail or doing away with it cutting off true safety net benefits from people who rely on it for subsistence.)

And if adjustments were made flat--like Ichabod suggested, for instance, pushing back the retirement age for SS eligibility--you'd still have to change your plans.

The problem I have with means-testing is the same problem that both you and I have with the cap on earnings. Social security is supposed to be equitable. You pay in money to the system, and draw out upon retirement. With the cap on earnings: 100% of my smaller income is taxable, while the wealthy man down the street only has 50% of his income subject to payroll taxes. Why should I pay more of my income when we'll receive the same benefit?


With means-testing, why should the wealthy man and I both have 100% of our income subject to the tax, but my checks are 30-50% larger each month than his? It would seem that if you're going to means-test the program, it would make sense that the wealthy person shouldn't have all his income subject to the tax because it is exactly that income which will prevent him from receiving the same payments as me.

A super-unbiased source.
 
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The problem I have with means-testing is the same problem that both you and I have with the cap on earnings. Social security is supposed to be equitable. You pay in money to the system, and draw out upon retirement.
Because it really is a tax-financed government safety net program. Some people can't possibly pay in the same amount they'll take out. (The example I mentioned earlier of someone who only worked a relatively short time, then got permanently disabled and will collect SSD all the way until retirement age--and then collect regular SS at that point.) It is not and never was an IRA.

There is and never has been a specific guarantee of how much you'll get back. In fact, it depends primarily on how long you stay alive for most people.

With the cap on earnings: 100% of my smaller income is taxable, while for the wealthy man down the street only has 50% of his income subject to payroll taxes. Why should I pay more of my income when we'll receive the same benefit?
I agree with you on this point. A regressive tax doesn't make sense to me. But I fail to see how that is analogous to means testing. In fact, I think the current means testing we have is also "regressive" in that it punishes lower income people who are actually working for their money and have to be concerned about not making too much lest they lose their SS benefit. For retirees making high incomes from investments, there generally is no need to take a part time job in retirement.


With means-testing, why should the wealthy man and I both have 100% of our income subject to the tax, but my checks are 30-50% larger each month than his? It would seem that if you're going to means-test the program, it would make sense that the wealthy person shouldn't have all his income subject to the tax because it is exactly that income which will prevent him from receiving the same payments as me.

[ETA: The pithier answer to the question: same reason you don't get SSD if you're not disabled.]

Again, we already have means testing, but it's only based on work earnings. If you keep working, and earn enough, you don't get your SS benefit. But if you don't work, and earn 6 figures in investment income, you do. That doesn't make much sense.

The reason payouts aren't "equitable" (in that they go back in exactly the same amounts as money paid in) is that SS isn't an investment. It has to do things investments can't. It already isn't "equitable" in the sense you mean, since there are people who already get more in benefit than they paid in (by living long, or being disabled for a long time).

At any rate, my primary point is that there is not a legal barrier to implementing means testing that takes into account pensions, annuities and all other investment income. No more than there is a barrier to what you suggest, simply raising the age of eligibility for all retirees. Contrary to what some are saying, SS is not a contract or "insurance policy" between the government and individual workers.

I'm OK with almost any of these various means of guaranteeing the long-term solvency of SS (but not Perry's idea--making the tax optional thereby effectively eliminating Social Security). Personally, I don't see any strong arguments against means testing. If we're going to reduce the overall benefits paid, I see no reason to ignore the fact that benefits currently go to some people who don't need it, while any benefit cuts to others could be really traumatic.

(I've only seen two arguments against means testing. One is that since it only makes up some half of the shortfall it's not worth doing. The other is that it will mess with the financial plans of people who don't actually need the benefit for subsistence. That's easily enough addressed by phasing in the changes gradually over a decade or even two. I dismiss a third class of arguments against means testing because they're based on distortions of what SS is.)
 
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Random said:
So do you believe that the Social Security program itself is sound, or that the problem is the way the rest of the government is run?

All that's pretty much irrelevant, since IF I ran an investment firm, and invested all the money in the bonds of company X, then the fortunes of my clients would be exactly related to the fortunes of company X.

It's most certainly not irrelevant to claims that Social Security is flawed or insolvent or mismanaged.

What is irrelevant is how you'd run an investment firm, because of course Social Security is a tax-financed government social program and not an investment.
 
The problem I have with means-testing is the same problem that both you and I have with the cap on earnings. Social security is supposed to be equitable. ....

No problem, just redefine the meaning of "fair" to suit the end goal of the moment. That's the progressive method, unfortunately it always winds up hurting the average guy.

Here's what you do: Increase the earnings cap, and means test. Then "the wealthy" pay out the nose, and get nothing. And it seems great, until inflation (planned right now) moves Average Guy into the categories in which he pays out the nose and gets nothing.

See how simple it is?
 
No problem, just redefine the meaning of "fair" to suit the end goal of the moment. That's the progressive method, unfortunately it always winds up hurting the average guy.

Here's what you do: Increase the earnings cap, and means test. Then "the wealthy" pay out the nose, and get nothing. And it seems great, until inflation (planned right now) moves Average Guy into the categories in which he pays out the nose and gets nothing.

See how simple it is?


Completely unsupported conjecture.

I am probably a part of what most Americans would define as "the welathy". I have no problem at all with having all of my income subject to SS taxes, and receiving a benefit capped at an absolute amount that is no higher than what I am currently projected to receive. In other words, I would pay quite a bit more and receive nothing extra for it. This would be no less "fair" than our current income tax scheme.

Nor is it likely that inflation would ever cause anyone to migrate up. We currently have wage growth protections in our general tax structure - annual increases to AMT trigger, the personal exemption and the standard deduction come to mind.
 
Completely unsupported conjecture.

I am probably a part of what most Americans would define as "the welathy". I have no problem at all with having all of my income subject to SS taxes, and receiving a benefit capped at an absolute amount that is no higher than what I am currently projected to receive. In other words, I would pay quite a bit more and receive nothing extra for it. This would be no less "fair" than our current income tax scheme.

Nor is it likely that inflation would ever cause anyone to migrate up. We currently have wage growth protections in our general tax structure - annual increases to AMT trigger, the personal exemption and the standard deduction come to mind.

No, there is no "annual increase" to AMT trigger, unlike the standard deduction. And regardless of that, inflation is very likely to cause bracket creep. It has before, and it will again. Government computations for inflation are not to be trusted.
 
No, there is no "annual increase" to AMT trigger, unlike the standard deduction.

Pedantic objection. The AMT adjustment is not automatic. It still happens, often and as necessary to keep pace with inflation.

And regardless of that, inflation is very likely to cause bracket creep.

No. We adjust all manner of tax thresholds to account for inflation. There is no logical reason to believe we would not do the same for SS - as we already do.

It has before, and it will again. Government computations for inflation are not to be trusted.

Yes, yes. Goverments are evil - especially when it comes to taxes. Essentially, you are arguing that it is safer to assume that the goverment will reverse 100 years of history of adjusting both taxes and benefits for inflation.
 
Pedantic objection. The AMT adjustment is not automatic. It still happens, often and as necessary to keep pace with inflation. .....

Not pedantic, reality. It's been adjusted a couple of times. You are welcome to have faith and trust in big brother to look out for your future, but don't think others share your attitude.

....No. We adjust all manner of tax thresholds to account for inflation. There is no logical reason to believe we would not do the same for SS - as we already do.....
Sure there is. Namely stress resulting from insufficient money to pay bills.

....Goverments are evil - especially when it comes to taxes. Essentially, you are arguing that it is safer to assume that the goverment will reverse 100 years of history of adjusting both taxes and benefits for inflation.

That's no different than looking at a 100 year history of performance of the public company Montgomery Wards and making projections. Doesn't work. You look at the financial statements for the last several years, both income and balance and cash flow, and on this basis guess at short, medium and long term future possibilities.

oh...by the way...Montgomery Wards is....gone.
 

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