Papers Please

[3point14]

It's not a crime, but I personally always carry a driver's license. I know of no one that deliberately walks around with no ID. There's just too many things you need it for.

I spent the first 35 years of my life carrying no ID. I didn't even carry keys as my front door was always open.


Just because you don't know anyone, it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. Why are you so incredulous when you know you're dealing with a self-selecting sample that won't necessarily represent the whole?


(I cannot believe I have to keep pointing this out to so many people. In real life it's not so bad, but given the name at the top of the screen it drives me mental. My apologies for ranting at you, you're just the latest in a long line of people indulging in that particularly easy to spot and lazy fallacy)

 

[Fudbucker]

I went without a picture ID for two years. I even rented cars and boarded flights. Pre 911.

A friend of mind hasn't possessed an ID in several decades.

I live in California, where you can't do anything without a car and everyone always has their driver's licenses. But let me ask you when you used to go ID-less: didn't you ever worry that something might happen to you and the police/hospital would have no way to contact your loved ones?

 

[Fudbucker]

I spent the first 35 years of my life carrying no ID. I didn't even carry keys as my front door was always open.

I would guess (without researching it much), that carrying ID around is about as prevalent as locking one's front door. Some people don't (obviously), but they are by far the exception to the rule.

And I have the same question for you: how could your family have been contacted if something happened to you and you had no ID?

 

[Giz]

I spent the first 35 years of my life carrying no ID. I didn't even carry keys as my front door was always open.


Just because you don't know anyone, it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. Why are you so incredulous when you know you're dealing with a self-selecting sample that won't necessarily represent the whole?


(I cannot believe I have to keep pointing this out to so many people. In real life it's not so bad, but given the name at the top of the screen it drives me mental. My apologies for ranting at you, you're just the latest in a long line of people indulging in that particularly easy to spot and lazy fallacy)

I think that this is largely a US/UK difference. In the UK I never carried picture ID ever. When I moved to the USA I found that it was necessary to have an ID (not just for when driving but also for the everyday essentials: buying alcohol at package store/off license and ordering drinks at a bar).

 

[gabeygoat]

I only keep id on me to buy booze and smokes. Even at the age of 41 with greying hair, I get carded

 

[3point14]

I would guess (without researching it much), that carrying ID around is about as prevalent as locking one's front door. Some people don't (obviously), but they are by far the exception to the rule.

How do you know this?

And I have the same question for you: how could your family have been contacted if something happened to you and you had no ID?

Normally I'd be with friends, people who'd know who to call. In the unlikely event I was on my own then there would have been difficulties all round. It wasn't something I usually thought of.

 

[Fudbucker]

How do you know this?

Because I don't live on an island. I know people and none of them leave their doors unlocked or walk around without some ID on them.

Normally I'd be with friends, people who'd know who to call. In the unlikely event I was on my own then there would have been difficulties all round. It wasn't something I usually thought of.

Obviously. If you thought about it you would have carried some ID (or screw it- if I'm in a hospital in a coma, no one needs to know but me).

Do you live in the UK?

 

[3point14]

Because I don't live on an island. I know people and none of them leave their doors unlocked or walk around without some ID on them.

And you're satisfied your sampling is representative and not have any inherent bias like being composed solely of people you know, who live in the area you do and share your approximate socio-economic status?

You've cleaned your data after gathering it?

Or are you indulging in the same logical fallacy as I pointed out in my last post?

I'm not saying you're not right. I'm saying that you can't know.

Obviously. If you thought about it you would have carried some ID (or screw it- if I'm in a hospital in a coma, no one needs to know but me).

Not really, no. Someone normally knew where I was, that was good enough both as a child an an adult.

Do you live in the UK?

Yes.

I wouldn't presume to be able to discern the habits of the whole of the UK from talking only to my acquaintances.

 

[varwoche]

I live in California, where you can't do anything without a car and everyone always has their driver's licenses. But let me ask you when you used to go ID-less: didn't you ever worry that something might happen to you and the police/hospital would have no way to contact your loved ones?

I didn't worry about it, but I did have credit cards and other forms of picture-less IDs. My buddy has no ID at all.

I don't lock my doors either. Not a big deal when you live in a rural area. I did lock my doors when I lived in Los Angeles.

 

[Fudbucker]

And you're satisfied your sampling is representative and not have any inherent bias like being composed solely of people you know, who live in the area you do and share your approximate socio-economic status?

You've cleaned your data after gathering it?

Or are you indulging in the same logical fallacy as I pointed out in my last post?

I'm not saying you're not right. I'm saying that you can't know.





Not really, no. Someone normally knew where I was, that was good enough both as a child an an adult.





Yes.

I wouldn't presume to be able to discern the habits of the whole of the UK from talking only to my acquaintances.

Since you don't live in America, this should help:

http://www.bbcamerica.com/anglophenia/2014/10/brits-america-10-reasons-always-carry-id

Brits in America: 10 Reasons to Always Carry ID

 

[3point14]

Since you don't live in America, this should help:

http://www.bbcamerica.com/anglophenia/2014/10/brits-america-10-reasons-always-carry-id

Brits in America: 10 Reasons to Always Carry ID

There's no data in that link. It says why it's a good idea, it gives no indication whatsoever about the number of Americans who follow that advice.


You still haven't answered my question. How do you know? are you now moving away from the 'everyone I know does it' argument and towards one where you have evidence from outside your own personal experience? could I see this evidence?

Do you even know you're indulging in a logical fallacy when you posit the argument you have?

 

[Fudbucker]

There's no data in that link. It says why it's a good idea, it gives no indication whatsoever about the number of Americans who follow that advice.

Of course there's data there: 10 reasons why it's a good idea to carry an ID. Each one of those reasons is a true data point. It's not data you apparently want or like, but it's data.


How do I know people follow that advice? For the same reason I know most people don't deliberately touch hot stoves. There are always a few exceptions...

 

[Fudbucker]

So to the original point, are we supposed to feel outraged that ICE is doing it's job and removing people who are here illegally?

"Immigration officials made about 160 arrests in those counties in what ICE said was an "enforcement surge." ICE said about 150 of those arrested had criminal histories and only five of the estimated 10 "non-criminals" did not have a final order of removal or had not been previously deported."
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/ice-arrests-stir-fear-immigrants-wary-trump-orders-n719626

Good job, ICE.

 

[3point14]

Of course there's data there: 10 reasons why it's a good idea to carry an ID. Each one of those reasons is a true data point. It's not data you apparently want or like, but it's data.

It's information. It's not data about how many people carry ID which is the topic.

It's data about why one should carry ID but that's not the same thing at all.

How do I know people follow that advice? For the same reason I know most people don't deliberately touch hot stoves. There are always a few exceptions...

Okay, do you understand that you cannot gather accurate data about the habits of a quarter of a billion people by informally gathering data from a self selecting sample?

Do you know what a self-selecting sample is and why your circle of friends and acquaintances would represent a self-selecting sample?

Do you know about sampling bias?

Again, do you even understand that you're indulging in a gross logical fallacy when you say 'everyone I know does it so everyone must do it."



Am I banging my head against a brick wall? Can someone, not fudbucker, please confirm to me that I'm writing in english and making sense?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

All I'm saying is that we aren't going to have to go around showing papers to officials just because we are brown. The ICE raids in Austin, for example, didn't ensnare my son, uncle, cousins, etc who all live there. Suggesting that these kinds of enforcement actions are a sign of future problems for brown Americans is FUD.

The moment after I or any of the brown people I know gets hassled for papers, you will hear it here first.
I'd also like to note that the instances of US Citizens wrongly detained and/or deported have been happening since way before Donald Trump even thought of running for President. This isn't a Trump-specific problem.

We got that highlighted part a long way back.

As for don't blame Trump, then why did ICE officials need to lie to CA legislators asserting it was business as usual when it wasn't? Why did the mother of US citizens, who herself had been here since she was 16, get deported this time, when she wasn't during her previous 8 annual visits to check in with immigration?

 

[dudalb]

I will say this: Hispanics will have it easy compared to what is in store for Muslim Americans if Trump has his way.

 

[casebro]

I live in San Diego, with 170,000 illegals. And I routinely leave my front door unlocked, AND walk around without any ID.

And just how many people per year have "something happen" that warrants concern about difficulty notifying loved ones? I might as well worry about being sawn up by a whacko with a chain saw.


So far as ICE discriminating, I suspect their field agents run about 80% Hispanic. So not likely prejudiced againts brwon skin. This from experience at crossing the border with nothing but a drivers license, and in-country border check points on highways. I'm worried more about discrimination against me- I'm white, now the #2 minority in California.

 

[Fudbucker]

We got that highlighted part a long way back.

As for don't blame Trump, then why did ICE officials need to lie to CA legislators asserting it was business as usual when it wasn't? Why did the mother of US citizens, who herself had been here since she was 16, get deported this time, when she wasn't during her previous 8 annual visits to check in with immigration?

"About eight years ago, there was a knock on Guadalupe García de Rayos’s door. Authorities had come to arrest the undocumented mother of two U.S.-born children, a Mexican native who had lived north of the border since she was 14.

The Phoenix mother was detained for months and eventually ordered to be sent back to Mexico. But for the subsequent years, after she appealed her voluntary deportation, García de Rayos was allowed to remain in the United States, as long as she checked in once a year, and then every six months.

Each year, she did so, and each year, immigration officials let her stay."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-them-they-seized-her/?utm_term=.164a15e3fbbb

Why was a known criminal and illegal immigrant allowed to stay here so long? How is that enforcing the law?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I never said it was "OK." It's a bad situation that needs addressing. Those Citizens deserve all the rights that I enjoy. But, as I noted, it's been happening for a long time over many Administrations. This isn't a Trump-specific problem and Trump isn't going to order ICE to start rounding up all brown people, citizen or not.

Drifting.... drifting... and switch to new argument, don't blame Trump.

 

[dudalb]

I live in San Diego, with 170,000 illegals. And I routinely leave my front door unlocked, AND walk around without any ID.

And just how many people per year have "something happen" that warrants concern about difficulty notifying loved ones? I might as well worry about being sawn up by a whacko with a chain saw.


So far as ICE discriminating, I suspect their field agents run about 80% Hispanic. So not likely prejudiced againts brwon skin. This from experience at crossing the border with nothing but a drivers license, and in-country border check points on highways. I'm worried more about discrimination against me- I'm white, now the #2 minority in California.

Got news for your buddy, in another 15 years, if every illegal was deported and no one else allowed in, Whites will become a minority in the US as a whole.
I am White European, and I am not worried about it in the least because I don't long for the days when White Males has a monopoly on power and influence in the US.
But I think you have revealed your bigotry .