Palestinian Election

[a_unique_person]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,143844,00.html

RAMALLAH, West Bank — Mahmoud Abbas (search) was elected Palestinian Authority president by a landslide, partial results showed Monday, giving the pragmatist a mandate to resume peace talks with Israel (search) — but also leaving him with the tough task of reining in powerful armed groups.

Israeli leaders welcomed Abbas' victory but said they will closely watch how hard he tries to subdue militants. Abbas could easily lose his political capital over a major bombing or shooting attack, and while most militant groups signaled they are willing to give him a chance, not all have signed on to a truce with Israel.

Still, Abbas' victory held out the promise of a new era after four decades of chaotic and corruption-riddled rule by Yasser Arafat (search), who died Nov. 11. Abbas, who has spoken out against violence and has the support of the international community, promises to reform the government and the unwieldy security services.

Many Palestinians had high expectations of Abbas, widely known as Abu Mazen. "Today is the beginning of a new future," said Sami Radwan, 55, a restaurant owner in Gaza City. "Abu Mazen is the right choice. He is the one who can bring us peace, good business and security."

Based on results from 10 of 16 electoral districts, Abbas won 65 percent of the vote, election officials said Monday. Final results were expected later in the day. Abbas' main challenger, independent Mustafa Barghouti, won 21 percent, while the remaining five candidates scored in the lower single digits.

In his acceptance speech, Abbas said he faces a difficult mission, but he reiterated that he would not go after militants. Instead, he said, he wants to "give our fugitives a life of dignity," referring to those wanted by Israel.

"I present this victory to the soul of Yasser Arafat and present it to our people and to our martyrs," Abbas said, referring to Palestinians killed in the conflict with Israel.

After exit polls late Sunday predicted a sweeping Abbas victory, cheering supporters took to the streets of the West Bank and Gaza. Gunmen fired in the air, motorists honked horns and members of Abbas' ruling Fatah movement, wearing checkered black-and-white headbands, danced in the streets.

The Islamic militant group Hamas, the largest opposition group, announced Monday it will work with Abbas despite misgivings about what it said were voting irregularities, including a decision to keep polls open two hours longer than planned. Hamas had called for a boycott of the election, but did not try to disrupt the vote.

In Washington, President Bush called the election a "historic" step toward a Palestinian state.

I don't blame Arafat for all that has gone wrong in this ongoing conflict, but he certainly didn't seem to have the ability to give any clear indication of what should be happening, or how it could happen, and he didn't seem to have any answers apart from violence. I do believe he did try non-violence, but in such an complex and contradictory conflict, that can only ever be held as an opinion, and nothing more.

The Palestinians appear to have expressed, as a majority, the desire to follow non-violence.

I don't think they are going to expect anything less than considerable concessions from Israel, though. They appear to be hoping that Abbas can achieve considerable concessions and do so peacefully.

As with the current fluid situation in Israel, anyone who can predict what the outcome will be is kidding themselves.

 

[Cleon]

I was kinda rooting for Mustafa Barghouti, if for no other reason than to say I've met the Palestinian President.

You're right--anyone who can predict what will happen is fooling themselves. Specifically, anyone who thinks that everything's going to be hunky-dory now is fooling themselves. There is still an inherent conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis; Arafat was <u>not</u> the cause of this. Neither is Sharon.

The real question here is how much is either side willing to concede, and how many concessions will radical elements tolerate. Further, how long will those concessions last; I honestly believe that any attempt at a two-state solution is a short-medium term "band-aid" that will have to result in eventual unification into a democratic, secular state. For the Palestinians to accept a state, however, requires the Israelis to grant full sovereignty; this was strongly lacking in the "peace process" of the mid 90s. "Full sovereignty" means control of their own borders, natural resources, the right to defend themselves, etc. How much of that Israel is willing to grant is purely guesswork at this point.

 

[Lucky]

From a_unique_person:
The Palestinians appear to have expressed, as a majority, the desire to follow non-violence.

Yes!

We already knew that several weeks ago, when Hamas called on the Palestinians to boycott the election and two thirds of the adult population responded immediately by registering to vote. That is even more important than who they voted for.

From Cleon:
Specifically, anyone who thinks that everything's going to be hunky-dory now is fooling themselves.

Well, I don’t suppose anyone thinks that. But there are a lot of happy and optimistic people, Jews and Palestinians, in Israel/Palestine today, and they are happy for the same reason: hope has returned.

I have thought for a long time that the Israel/Palestine conflict is following quite closely the process in Ireland. It has now moved into a new phase, but the end is still far away. As in Ireland, random terrorist slaughter will no longer have mass support. It will continue, however, for a long time, because small numbers of fanatics can very easily kill large numbers of innocent people. That is more a matter of physics than politics.

From the BBC’s ‘Have Your Say’:
I have just come back from Palestine and all I can say is that that ordinary Palestinians on the streets are very optimistic; they believe Abu Mazen will bring about positive change and will move the peace process forward quickly. It is about time we engaged the Israelis in some serious dialogue. Abu Mazen is the best chance the Israelis will ever get to strike a comprehensive peace settlement with the Palestinians, so Israel you must grab this golden opportunity this time round.
Mustafa, London, UK

 

[a_unique_person]

Lucky, I think they have already been there, after Oslo. I think that this time, people on both sides may recall that the failure of Oslo was not worth it.

 

[a_unique_person]

I have thought for a long time that the Israel/Palestine conflict is following quite closely the process in Ireland. It has now moved into a new phase, but the end is still far away. As in Ireland, random terrorist slaughter will no longer have mass support. It will continue, however, for a long time, because small numbers of fanatics can very easily kill large numbers of innocent people. That is more a matter of physics than politics.

[/B]

Jocko will have this quoted on his sig if you don't watch out.

 

[webfusion]

it only takes a little chunk of C4...

As the article from Fox alluded to (in the OP) --
Abbas could easily lose his political capital over a major bombing {or missile} or shooting attack, and while most militant groups signaled they are willing to give him a chance, not all have signed on to a truce with Israel.

The Palestinians appear to have expressed, as a majority, the desire to follow non-violence.

So, quite reasonably, Israel can expect anyone with a bit of C4 or a few Qassem rockets (and the strongly-encouraged wish to become a martyr for 'the Palestinian cause') to attempt sending the entire process back to square one, the majority be dammned.

Let us not get too cheerful, especially since lurking in the wings are some very unsavory characters -- who are no better than the thugs the US Marines face in Iraq.

 

[Ed]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,143844,00.html




As with the current fluid situation in Israel, anyone who can predict what the outcome will be is kidding themselves.

I'll venture a prediction.

They are both so exhausted that they will view this election as a turning point and everything will be hunkey-dorey.

That is what everyone is afraid to say but I said it. I have Cujones Maximo. I am a speaker of truth. I am God.

 

[webfusion]

hunky dory

ed proclaims -- They are both so exhausted

Well, except for these guys:

Palestinians fire anti-tank missile at IDF force near Neve Dekalim in Gaza Strip -- reported three hours ago


and these people:

Thousands of protestors, including numerous rabbis, turned out for an anti-disengagement protest held in Jerusalem on Monday.

 

[a_unique_person]

Re: it only takes a little chunk of C4...

As the article from Fox alluded to (in the OP) --
Abbas could easily lose his political capital over a major bombing {or missile} or shooting attack, and while most militant groups signaled they are willing to give him a chance, not all have signed on to a truce with Israel.



So, quite reasonably, Israel can expect anyone with a bit of C4 or a few Qassem rockets (and the strongly-encouraged wish to become a martyr for 'the Palestinian cause') to attempt sending the entire process back to square one, the majority be dammned.

Let us not get too cheerful, especially since lurking in the wings are some very unsavory characters -- who are no better than the thugs the US Marines face in Iraq.

Refer - Lucky's post. There were plenty of opportunities for the UK to throw out the peace deal with the IRA. I think history has shown it was worth persevering with.

 

[Ed]

Re: hunky dory

ed proclaims -- They are both so exhausted

Well, except for these guys:

Palestinians fire anti-tank missile at IDF force near Neve Dekalim in Gaza Strip -- reported three hours ago


and these people:

Thousands of protestors, including numerous rabbis, turned out for an anti-disengagement protest held in Jerusalem on Monday.

Pay no attention. These are aberrant events.

Come on now, sing along with me:

Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbayah

Now the Jews!!

Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Now the A-rabs...com'on, don't be shy.....

Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Lordy, now everyone, SING

Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

See? All is well

 

[Ed]

Re: Re: it only takes a little chunk of C4...

Refer - Lucky's post. There were plenty of opportunities for the UK to throw out the peace deal with the IRA. I think history has shown it was worth persevering with.

"worth persevering with"?

"worth persevering", surely.

Seriously, an event or two means nothing. It is the pattern of events and the response that are the true indicators.

Come on now you gloomy Gusses!!!

Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbayah

Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

 

[Cleon]

I sing folk music. I play guitar, banjo, mandolin, and others. I love Pete Seeger, Phil Ochs, Leadbelly, Tom Paxton, etc. And Woody Guthrie is my hero.

But I still hate that goddamn song.

 

[zenith-nadir]

Eventhough every single peace treaty with Israel over the past decade calls for the disarmament of palestinian terror groups and Al Aqsa, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are recognized as terrorist organizations by the U.S. and E.U. and these same groups threaten the very authority of the Palestinian Authority;

Abbas won't disarm militant groups

GAZA, Jan. 11 (UPI) -- Newly elected Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has informed Washington that he will not seek to disarm Palestinian militant groups.

He said clearly that "he will not seek to disarm the militant groups, not now nor tomorrow" and that the first step should be working out a cease-fire "after Israel agrees in writing to stop pre-emptive assassinations of Palestinian leaders."

 

[Cleon]

Eventhough every single peace treaty with Israel over the past decade calls for the disarmament of palestinian terror groups and Al Aqsa, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are recognized as terrorist organizations by the U.S. and E.U. and these same groups threaten the very authority of the Palestinian Authority;

Abbas won't disarm militant groups

Smart move, when you think about it. Cracking down on Hamas, whose popularity has only increased since Sheik Yassin was assassinated, would merely cause internal tension possibly leading to a civil war. That would be bad for all concerned.

By calling for a cease-fire while not actively attacking Hamas, IJ, etc., Abbas is taking a baby step towards integrating them into the Palestinian Authority. The effect is the same--an end to terrorist attacks against Israel--but this way the long-term prospects for a unified Palestinian government are much stronger.

 

[zenith-nadir]

Smart move, when you think about it. Abbas is taking a baby step towards integrating them into the Palestinian Authority.

Tue Jan 11, 2005 - New Militant Attacks Pose Early Challenge to Abbas - Reuters

GAZA (Reuters) - Palestinian militants resumed rocket and mortar fire at Jewish settlements in Gaza on Tuesday, throwing down the gauntlet to newly elected Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and his call for calm to talk peace with Israel.

They wasted no time putting Abbas to his first test, firing seven rockets and mortar bombs into Jewish enclaves in southern Gaza and one rocket into an Israeli border town, causing damage but no casualties.

The very groups you claim will happily join the Palestinian Authority reject the Palestinian Authority and act against it's wishes.

 

[Cleon]

The very groups you claim will happily join the Palestinian Authority reject the Palestinian Authority and act against it's wishes.

I didn't claim that, liar.

 

[CBL4]

Smart move, when you think about it. Cracking down on Hamas, whose popularity has only increased since Sheik Yassin was assassinated, would merely cause internal tension possibly leading to a civil war. That would be bad for all concerned.

Thanks to the murdering terrorists groups and their large number of supporters and apologists, Abbas had no good moves. I think this was his best move but I doubt it will work. I expect a significant portion of Hamas, Al Aqsa, Fatah, etc will attempt to derail any peace plan.

The only hope is that Abbas and peace can gain enough popularity before the terrorist kill too many people. Before peace occurs, most of the murderers will need to be co-opted and the rest need to be squashed.

Once again, the ball is in the Palestinians court. If enough of them want peace, they can get it. If they allow the murderers to call the shots, they can look forward to more misery.

I do not hold out any great hope. The most optimistic thing that I can think of is that the Israeli extremists are going to loudly resist the coming pullout. This may convince some Palestinians that they are actually gaining something.

CBL

 

[demon]

The Israeli government is desperate for Abbas to accept something like the "settlement" that Arafat rejected at Camp David in 2000.
This would allow Israel to annexe a very large chunk of the West Bank and as we all know, confine the Palestinians to various disconneceted bantustan- like cantons.
The violence of the past four years has, from the Israeli angle, been an attempt to discipline the Palestinians. The attack on the Palestinian authoritie`s institutions of government, which reached it's worst point in 2002, was designed to weaken resistance to Israel's expansionist project just as the day to day oppression and violence was intended to exhaust the popular struggle. With Arafat out of the way, the Israelis hope that the PA under Abbas will do their bidding and that the people are too exhausted to continue the fight.
But it is also possible that the Israelis cannot continue the fight either. Israel is a militarised state with expansionist aims, but it is also a modern hi-tech economy which thinks of itself as a western democracy. Crucially, Israel's business elite, which is closely integrated with the global economy, needs to expand its operations around the world as it did very succesfully during the period of relative peace in the 1990's. These groups were an important force behind the Oslo accords. During the past few years they have thrown in their lot behind Sharon. One reason they have been willing to do so is that he has pushed forward the neo-liberal reform of the Israeli welfare state, a key demand of the business class. Sharon has been able to do so because he succesfully neutralised the opposition of the Sephardic parties, who represent those who have most to lose by those reforms. The Sephardi parties swung full square behind Sharon in the war against the Palestinians.
The reform process is starting to run its course and the Israeli economy has suffered very badly. Sharon cannot count on the support of the business class forever so he and the militarists that he leads in both major parties are desperately hoping that Abbas delivers the goods.

What they want is a return to the Oslo days.
Israel will start negotiations again and these will drag on interminably, but the goal will remain the same. The purpose will be to allow the Israeli economy to recover whilst the Palestinians are offered minor inducements and crumbs (no doubt portrayed as generous concessions by the pandering western media), to encourage them to accept the realities on the ground.
It is not hard to see why Abbas is Israel's chosen one. His policy of ending armed opposition whilst negotiations proceed is just what they need. But it seems inevitable that the Palestinian people will tire very quickly of this approach and mass opposition will emerge. They are under no illusions about the situation, even if most Israeli's still are.
When this happens, what can Israel do? I believe that there is little appetite for more conflict. There is a real chance that elite unity will fracture and important and powerful sections of Israeli society will decide that business profits are more important than territorial gain (they have probably already done so). Once it becomes clear that they cannot have both, we may see a genuine peace movement emerge with powerful support in Israeli society.

Or, there is Capel`s civil war scenario...not sure about that one but it could be on the cards.

 

[a_unique_person]

Ref this thread

Judaism is unequivocally contradictory to democracy, and the laws of the Torah take precedence over the laws of the state

Clearly, there are those in Israel planning another assasination.

 

[Grammatron]

Clearly, there are those in Israel planning another assasination.

And Australia as well so what?