Palestinian Election

[Grammatron]

The Israeli government is desperate for Abbas to accept something like the "settlement" that Arafat rejected at Camp David in 2000.
This would allow Israel to annexe a very large chunk of the West Bank and as we all know, confine the Palestinians to various disconneceted bantustan- like cantons.
The violence of the past four years has, from the Israeli angle, been an attempt to discipline the Palestinians. The attack on the Palestinian authoritie`s institutions of government, which reached it's worst point in 2002, was designed to weaken resistance to Israel's expansionist project just as the day to day oppression and violence was intended to exhaust the popular struggle. With Arafat out of the way, the Israelis hope that the PA under Abbas will do their bidding and that the people are too exhausted to continue the fight.
But it is also possible that the Israelis cannot continue the fight either. Israel is a militarised state with expansionist aims, but it is also a modern hi-tech economy which thinks of itself as a western democracy. Crucially, Israel's business elite, which is closely integrated with the global economy, needs to expand its operations around the world as it did very succesfully during the period of relative peace in the 1990's. These groups were an important force behind the Oslo accords. During the past few years they have thrown in their lot behind Sharon. One reason they have been willing to do so is that he has pushed forward the neo-liberal reform of the Israeli welfare state, a key demand of the business class. Sharon has been able to do so because he succesfully neutralised the opposition of the Sephardic parties, who represent those who have most to lose by those reforms. The Sephardi parties swung full square behind Sharon in the war against the Palestinians.
The reform process is starting to run its course and the Israeli economy has suffered very badly. Sharon cannot count on the support of the business class forever so he and the militarists that he leads in both major parties are desperately hoping that Abbas delivers the goods.

What they want is a return to the Oslo days.
Israel will start negotiations again and these will drag on interminably, but the goal will remain the same. The purpose will be to allow the Israeli economy to recover whilst the Palestinians are offered minor inducements and crumbs (no doubt portrayed as generous concessions by the pandering western media), to encourage them to accept the realities on the ground.
It is not hard to see why Abbas is Israel's chosen one. His policy of ending armed opposition whilst negotiations proceed is just what they need. But it seems inevitable that the Palestinian people will tire very quickly of this approach and mass opposition will emerge. They are under no illusions about the situation, even if most Israeli's still are.
When this happens, what can Israel do? I believe that there is little appetite for more conflict. There is a real chance that elite unity will fracture and important and powerful sections of Israeli society will decide that business profits are more important than territorial gain (they have probably already done so). Once it becomes clear that they cannot have both, we may see a genuine peace movement emerge with powerful support in Israeli society.

Or, there is Capel`s civil war scenario...not sure about that one but it could be on the cards.

Abbas is Israel's chosen one? I thought Palestinian elected him, you know something we do not?

 

[a_unique_person]

And Australia as well so what?

No Prime Minister has ever been assasinated in Australia. Israel has been around about half as long, but already has one. If you read that thread, there appear to be some people in Israel who see no problem with another one happening. They are a minority, but it only takes one to pull the trigger.

 

[Grammatron]

No Prime Minister has ever been assasinated in Australia. Israel has been around about half as long, but already has one. If you read that thread, there appear to be some people in Israel who see no problem with another one happening. They are a minority, but it only takes one to pull the trigger.

Doesn't mean no one is trying, like you said, it only takes one.

 

[a_unique_person]

Doesn't mean no one is trying, like you said, it only takes one.

I don't believe anyone is. In Israel however, and Palestine, as well, you can bet there are people out there with itchy trigger fingers. The prospect of an assasination is very real.

As much as I hate John Howard, I would never want to assasinate him, or let others do it, just because the political stability we get from having a country where that is not done is worth so much more. He will get his marching orders one day.

For the extremists in Israel and Palestine, the instability is something they would see as a benefit.

 

[Grammatron]

I don't believe anyone is. In Israel however, and Palestine, as well, you can bet there are people out there with itchy trigger fingers. The prospect of an assasination is very real.

As much as I hate John Howard, I would never want to assasinate him, or let others do it, just because the political stability we get from having a country where that is not done is worth so much more. He will get his marching orders one day.

For the extremists in Israel and Palestine, the instability is something they would see as a benefit.

I admit there is a much hire chance, but there is no shortage of lunatics in every country.

 

[zenith-nadir]

While a_u_p is trying to convince everyone that jewish assasins are around every corner just waiting to kill Sharon the reality is;

Abu Mazen´s First Terror Victim - 12:08 Jan 12, '05

An IDF vehicle driving near the hothouses of Morag drove over a large explosive at approximately 9:30 this morning (Wednesday). At the same time, a Palestinian terrorist opened fire. One Israeli civilian is dead, and 3 IDF soldiers were wounded.

Terrorists fired a mortar shell at N'vei Dekalim last night, three Kassam rockets this morning at Gush Katif neighborhoods, and later, an anti-tank rocket at an IDF patrol near Ganei Tal.

This is the reality on the ground. It is more real than a_u_p's wish for Sharon to be assasinated. These are the people Arafat refused to stop and the people Abbas refuses to stop. So either Israel rolls over like a dog and lets it's citizens be terrorized and killed - which no country on earth including Australia would do - or someone has to confront and stop them.

You cant have groups running around launching rockets, motars and killing Israelis and have law and order. The two can not work in conjunction with each other. That is Abbas's greatest challenge.

Blah...blah...blah...The Israeli government is desperate....blah...blah....blah... as we all know, confine the Palestinians to various disconneceted bantustan- like cantons....blah....blah...blah...the Israelis hope that the PA under Abbas will do their bidding....blah...blah...blah...It is not hard to see why Abbas is Israel's chosen one.

I see that even a free and fair Palestinian election - which was monitored by international observers - is really a jewish plot and Abbas is the jewish puppet in the plot. Hahahahahahaha, Demon you are hilarious and delusional.

 

[a_unique_person]

While a_u_p is trying to convince everyone that jewish assasins are around every corner just waiting to kill Sharon the reality is;

Abu Mazen´s First Terror Victim - 12:08 Jan 12, '05 This is the reality on the ground. It is more real than a_u_p's wish for Sharon to be assasinated. These are the people Arafat refused to stop and the people Abbas refuses to stop. So either Israel rolls over like a dog and lets it's citizens be terrorized and killed - which no country on earth including Australia would do - or someone has to confront and stop them.

You cant have groups running around launching rockets, motars and killing Israelis and have law and order. The two can not work in conjunction with each other. That is Abbas's greatest challenge.

I see that even a free and fair Palestinian election - which was monitored by international observers - is really a jewish plot and Abbas is the jewish puppet in the plot. Hahahahahahaha, Demon you are hilarious and delusional.

If either of them was assasinated, it would come as no surprise. The interview with the extremist settlers threatened as much.

 

[zenith-nadir]

If either of them was assasinated, it would come as no surprise. The interview with the extremist settlers threatened as much.

How many nut-bars want to kill Bush? 10? 20? 1000? How about Putin? How many nut-bars want to kill Putin? How about Iyad Allawi? How many nut-bars and insurgents would just love to kill Iyad Allawi? Or Blair, or Chirac. That is why these guys have full-time protection.

What I am trying to say is "extremist settlers" who want to kill Sharon is not some epiphany..it is not something unique or out of the norn....it is the danger every world leader faces every single day. Think about how many a-r-a-b-s want to kill Sharon, now that's a scarey number I am sure.