Our next unelected PM?

[jeremyp]

So says an Australian? It seems all of Corbyn's knockers are not even Labour party members or voters.

Not true. I know Labour Party members who resent the way he came in and brought masses of supporters who "aren't real Labour Party people" so he can't be shifted out now. Coincidentally, I also know one of that influx of supporters who actually worked very hard as a campaigner during the last general election but who won't vote Labour again because of Jeremy Corbyn's stance on Brexit and his inept handling of it.

There are plenty of Labour people critical of Corbyn and when it comes to votes, they are in a minority.

 

[angrysoba]

Agreed. This is where the US and Australia (and probably others) with only two alternative governments and with neither radical and liable to royally **** things up have the better political system.

No. The UK system means that even if Farage gets millions of votes in the general election, his party is unlikely to get very many seats. The rank and file of Tory voters will not defect completely so all that would happen is a split from the Tory votes. Labour and Lib Dems would end up picking up a lot of seats.

Seriously, Farage’s party are not going to win a general election.

 

[Vixen]

I'm an ex-Labour Party member (close to 25 years membership) and so far have voted in every general election I've been eligible to vote in and have voted for Labour every time.

I think that Jeremy Corbyn has been a dreadful leader of the opposition and would be a very poor Prime Minister. My main criticisms of him are:

• His political opinions and policies are horribly outdated and hark back to the issues of the 1970s, not the current day
• He is a man of principle which in turn means that it is difficult for him to compromise or generate a consensus within a party as broad as the Labour Party
• He has a long history of voting against the party, which makes it difficult for him to insist on loyalty in turn
• His views and past actions are too easy to lampoon by the right wing press and he makes it too simple to portray him as a monster in waiting
• By being a Brexit supporter, he is actively working against the interests of those he purports to serve

A friend (lifelong Labour voter who has recently left the party) has said that his daughter has also left the Labour party specifically because of Jeremy Corbyn's lack of leadership and views on Brexit.

Not all criticism of Jeremy Corbyn comes from the right wing press.

ISTM the issue is that Labour Party have always suffered from a 'Blairite'-type faction, which deems, 'why can't the labour party be more like the conservatives?'

Then there are those who see support of Palestine as proof of 'anti-Semitism'. I am pro-Isael but I don't see that being pro-Palestine equates to 'anti-Semitic'. There are pros and cons to both sides.

IMV the labour party has suffered for years thanks to the knock-on effects of tory-boy Blair. People reason they may as well vote for the real thing and vote tory.

Corbyn is prinicipled and that is a big positive IMV in a world of cynicism. I know plenty of labour party supporters who are pro-Brexit.

Being remain is not necessarily the Labour default. Corbyn's reasons for being pro-Brexit are based on the fact the EU is a capitalist consortium whose aim is to get cheap labour and cheap raw materials to the profit of its capitalist classes, very different reasons from Farage or Johnson who want to sneak in a Steve Bannon-style far right agenda a la Donald Trump.

That is sinister.

 

[GlennB]

No. The UK system means that even if Farage gets millions of votes in the general election, his party is unlikely to get very many seats. The rank and file of Tory voters will not defect completely so all that would happen is a split from the Tory votes. Labour and Lib Dems would end up picking up a lot of seats.

Seriously, Farage’s party are not going to win a general election.

Yep. And the only way the Brexit party will even stand in the next GE (assuming it's before Brexit day) is if there is any doubt about whether the UK is actually going to leave. Johnson knows this and will do anything to ensure we do leave.

 

[jeremyp]

OK, then. In which way will Jeremy Corbyn as PM mean the UK is '******'?

I'll answer that: he is utterly useless.

Think back to the 2017 general election which he failed to win in spite of the fact that Teresa May did everything in her power to lose it

.At the time, many Labour supporters celebrated the result as if they had won, but when the dust had settled, Teresa May was still prime minister. When I used to point that out, Labour supporters would say things like "at the start of the election Corbyn was miles back in the polls so he did much better than expected". This is true, but he still lost and why was he miles back in the polls against the government of Brexit and austerity? It's because he is useless.

 

[3point14]

It's really difficult to espouse opinions that the owners of newspapers really don't like (cos they're rich and some of them are in tax exile)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...media-reform-coalition-birkbeck-a7163706.html

 

[Vixen]

I'll answer that: he is utterly useless.

Think back to the 2017 general election which he failed to win in spite of the fact that Teresa May did everything in her power to lose it

.At the time, many Labour supporters celebrated the result as if they had won, but when the dust had settled, Teresa May was still prime minister. When I used to point that out, Labour supporters would say things like "at the start of the election Corbyn was miles back in the polls so he did much better than expected". This is true, but he still lost and why was he miles back in the polls against the government of Brexit and austerity? It's because he is useless.

He comes across as ineffectual and it was frustrating he didn't press for a second referendum earlier. That being said, there are inter-party disputes which is also reflected in the factionalised broken tory party.

The EU is not going to renegotiate with Boris or Jeremy and neither has shown any humility at all but rather an uncalled for show of entitlement. They are going to plunge the UK into a horrible recession -which has already started - rather than act responsibily.

 

[The Don]

ISTM the issue is that Labour Party have always suffered from a 'Blairite'-type faction, which deems, 'why can't the labour party be more like the conservatives?'

Ah, the old "No true Scotsman" logical fallacy

Right now, criticism of Jeremy Corbyn and his handling of Brexit seems to be coming from everyone apart from his immediate cadre - including most of the parliamentary Labour Party and Labour Party membership. Sure you can dismiss all of these as part of some Blairite faction but they seem to outnumber the "true" Labour loyalists.

Then there are those who see support of Palestine as proof of 'anti-Semitism'. I am pro-Isael but I don't see that being pro-Palestine equates to 'anti-Semitic'. There are pros and cons to both sides.

There are, but I've not criticised Jeremy Corbyn for being antisemitic.

There is evidence of antisemitism within the Labour Party but it long predates Jeremy Corbyn's leadership and similar focus may identify similar cases in other parties.

IMV the labour party has suffered for years thanks to the knock-on effects of tory-boy Blair. People reason they may as well vote for the real thing and vote tory.

There is a big difference between New Labour and the Conservative Party. If you need evidence of this, just consider all the changes that the Conservative-led coalition made in the name of "austerity" to make the rich richer and the poor poorer.

Corbyn is prinicipled and that is a big positive IMV in a world of cynicism. I know plenty of labour party supporters who are pro-Brexit.

Principled can be a positive, but principled and inflexible results in dogmatic. Jeremy Corbyn is undoubtedly the latter, he seems impervious to new information or fundamental societal changes and his views and policies are invariant.

Being remain is not necessarily the Labour default. Corbyn's reasons for being pro-Brexit are based on the fact the EU is a capitalist consortium whose aim is to get cheap labour and cheap raw materials to the profit of its capitalist classes, very different reasons from Farage or Johnson who want to sneak in a Steve Bannon-style far right agenda a la Donald Trump.

That is sinister.

It's not the default but 2/3 of Labour voters voted to Remain and recent polls put that number close to 3/4 so it's a minority view within the party and one where there is good evidence that it is driving away support (such as the YouGov poll which indicated that Labour would have been clear winners in the recent European elections had they adopted a Remain or even second referendum stance).

It's true that Jeremy Corbyn seems to want to establish a workers' utopia but that would require the UK to pretend that globalism doesn't exist and/or to disengage entirely from it.

It also flies in the face of the evidence that immigration from the EU hasn't driven down wages (but then again, Jeremy Corbyn appears impervious to any facts that challenge his views).

 

[Vixen]

Ah, the old "No true Scotsman" logical fallacy

Right now, criticism of Jeremy Corbyn and his handling of Brexit seems to be coming from everyone apart from his immediate cadre - including most of the parliamentary Labour Party and Labour Party membership. Sure you can dismiss all of these as part of some Blairite faction but they seem to outnumber the "true" Labour loyalists.



There are, but I've not criticised Jeremy Corbyn for being antisemitic.

There is evidence of antisemitism within the Labour Party but it long predates Jeremy Corbyn's leadership and similar focus may identify similar cases in other parties.



There is a big difference between New Labour and the Conservative Party. If you need evidence of this, just consider all the changes that the Conservative-led coalition made in the name of "austerity" to make the rich richer and the poor poorer.



Principled can be a positive, but principled and inflexible results in dogmatic. Jeremy Corbyn is undoubtedly the latter, he seems impervious to new information or fundamental societal changes and his views and policies are invariant.



It's not the default but 2/3 of Labour voters voted to Remain and recent polls put that number close to 3/4 so it's a minority view within the party and one where there is good evidence that it is driving away support (such as the YouGov poll which indicated that Labour would have been clear winners in the recent European elections had they adopted a Remain or even second referendum stance).

It's true that Jeremy Corbyn seems to want to establish a workers' utopia but that would require the UK to pretend that globalism doesn't exist and/or to disengage entirely from it.

It also flies in the face of the evidence that immigration from the EU hasn't driven down wages (but then again, Jeremy Corbyn appears impervious to any facts that challenge his views).

It did drive down wages, as evidenced that, with the mass brexodus of EU workers, wages for construction workers and especially engineers has risen sharply due to a shortage of labour.

The industry’s best senior site managers are now earning close to an MP’s salary after a year of wage inflation.

A survey of 6,800 permanent placed construction jobs shows salaries across the sector jumped 9% to £45,900 in the 12 months to the end of May.

Rising wages have been blamed on a shrinking pool of talent caused by a builder Brexodus.

Site engineers have enjoyed fastest growing pay, with average asking salaries surging 19%, from £37,100 to £44,300. The best site engineers in the capital are now being paid up to £68,700.

http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2019/06/24/brexodus-drives-site-engineer-pay-up-19/

The thought of an influx of cheap labour from poorer EU countries was a driving force behind the 'Leave' vote IMV.

 

[jeremyp]

ISTM the issue is that Labour Party have always suffered from a 'Blairite'-type faction, which deems, 'why can't the labour party be more like the conservatives?'

The "Blairite" Labour Party is the only party that has beaten the Tories in a general election in the last 30 years. The last eleven general elections were won by Tories eight times and Tony Blair three times. James Callaghan, Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn were all losers. I know Tony Blair did some bad things during his presidency prime ministership including climbing inside GW Bush's bottom but the Blairites were able to make Labour electable.

Then there are those who see support of Palestine as proof of 'anti-Semitism'. I am pro-Isael but I don't see that being pro-Palestine equates to 'anti-Semitic'. There are pros and cons to both sides.

It's being uncritically pro-Palestine that is the problem.

IMV the labour party has suffered for years thanks to the knock-on effects of tory-boy Blair. People reason they may as well vote for the real thing and vote tory.

Tony Blair has been gone for more than ten years. In my view the biggest damage he did to the Labour Party was by virtue of the fact that many of the best people in it were tainted by association with the Blair-Brown period. Thus the party has been run by second rate non entities ever since.

Corbyn's reasons for being pro-Brexit are based on the fact the EU is a capitalist consortium whose aim is to get cheap labour and cheap raw materials to the profit of its capitalist classes, very different reasons from Farage or Johnson who want to sneak in a Steve Bannon-style far right agenda a la Donald Trump.

That is sinister.

No, it's a lie.

 

[jeremyp]

He comes across as ineffectual

Because he is ineffectual.

and it was frustrating he didn't press for a second referendum earlier.

Yes, but he wants Brexit. He keeps very quiet about it for some reason though. I can't vote for any party that is pro-Brexit but I would at least respect him a bit more if he had advertised his views a bit more.

That being said, there are inter-party disputes which is also reflected in the factionalised broken tory party.

Do you mean inter? or do you mean intra?

The EU is not going to renegotiate with Boris or Jeremy and neither has shown any humility at all but rather an uncalled for show of entitlement. They are going to plunge the UK into a horrible recession -which has already started - rather than act responsibily.

I think that hits the nail bang on the head with respect to the state of the Tory Party and Brexit. Our only hope is that the government collapses before it is too late.

 

[Tolls]

It's really difficult to espouse opinions that the owners of newspapers really don't like (cos they're rich and some of them are in tax exile)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...media-reform-coalition-birkbeck-a7163706.html

If you note the date on that article you'll see it was a month after the rferendum.
A referendum in which Jeremy was noticeable by his absence.
Foorgive me if I think the guy's a complete ******** for that.

ETA: Better stick the post I was replying to in there!

 

[Tolls]

He comes across as ineffectual and it was frustrating he didn't press for a second referendum earlier.

He is innefectual.
He is doing really badly in the polls against a Tory party that is in a shambles.

And he still doesn't want a second referendum.
He never has.

His party are having to drag him towards it kicking and screaming.

 

[Francesca R]

I vote conservative and have been a member of the Party for a long time.

I'm not a member of any; I considered joining Labour to vote against Corbyn but I didn't and it would not have mattered. I have voted Liberal Democrat (more than anything else, general elections 2010 2015 2017, almost all council elections and European Parliament ones) Labour (general elections 1997-2005, Mayor of London 2004, 2016) Conservative (Mayor, 2008 2012) and independent (Ken Livingstone, Mayor 2000). I approved of the Lib Dems doing a coalition with the Tories in 2010 and was even glad they were compelled to drop free university tuition but all their other supporters hated both these things. I do not like Labour or the Tories right now. My Labour MP (Thornberry) is OK but too close for comfort to Corbyn.

Yesterday I had an e-mail from the Leadership Dept and the subject was: Confirm your attendance at the south central hustings.
I opened it and the content was about the first ballot to reduce the number of MPs wanting to be PM to two.

Hasn't this already been done by MPs?

Can you vote postally for Hunt v Johnson? I would be surprised if not.

 

[The Don]

It did drive down wages, as evidenced that, with the mass brexodus of EU workers, wages for construction workers and especially engineers has risen sharply due to a shortage of labour.

http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2019/06/24/brexodus-drives-site-engineer-pay-up-19/

The thought of an influx of cheap labour from poorer EU countries was a driving force behind the 'Leave' vote IMV.

A single data point from a single industry at a single point in time reflecting a brief constriction for a particular job role. Comprehensive studies have shown that EU immigration has not driven down wages:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...achment_data/file/741926/Final_EEA_report.PDF

 

[NWO Sentryman]

What is this rant supposed to mean?

that political correctness is a facade people pay lip service to in public, and make their opinions REALLY known when it suits them.

 

[Tolls]

A single data point from a single industry at a single point in time reflecting a brief constriction for a particular job role. Comprehensive studies have shown that EU immigration has not driven down wages:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...achment_data/file/741926/Final_EEA_report.PDF

And the idea that a shortage of builders etc is a good thing strikes me as bizarre since we're supposed to be building tens of thousands of houses a year.

That's like suggesting a shortage of nurses is a Good Thing.

Otherwise known as a bloody stupid idea.

 

[Francesca R]

Comprehensive studies have shown that EU immigration has not driven down wages:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...achment_data/file/741926/Final_EEA_report.PDF

The report you link actually says it did (a bit)

In terms of wages the existing evidence and the analysis we present in the report suggests that migration is not a major determinate of the wages of UK born workers. We found some evidence suggesting that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact while higher-skilled workers benefit, however the magnitude of the impacts are generally small.

Anyway, in my view it is entirely plausible that if there is free migration from (on balance) low wage countries to higher wage countries then of course allowing it should narrow the gap some. The primary reason many EU nationals came to the UK was a sizeable income bump. I think it would be extraordinary to expect that this had no effect on pay in the relevant jobs.

But 1) it should also mean that prices of the related goods or services should also fall and 2) it should not mean that aggregate wages fall and 3) it seems that none of these effects are anything but small even though the pre-existing differences in wages between the UK and countries that large migration came from are actually rather big.

Personally I think benefits of migration are much bigger than costs and I would have voted for a political party that had a manifesto to increase net immigration to a million rather than one promising to cut it to 100,000, but I would not deny there are any costs.

 

[IanS]

Simply won't happen. Next time around, the EU citizens will get to cast their votes.

A certainty in politics you say? And what's more, alleged certainty of outcome in what is clearly the most uncertain of times in UK politics for perhaps 100 years. I think, not!

To repeat (sorry about that!) - if Boris becomes PM (looks highly likely at present ... but almost any surprise could happen yet; especially with Boris!), then it's very likely that he will get no new deal from the EU, and he will as a result be forced to offer the HoC a No Deal Exit ... on all evidence so far, that option would be rejected by MP's (though it could be very close) ... in that case Boris begins to look to the Conservative MP's like an even greater liability and an even bigger embarrassment than Mrs May in her very worst moments ... that may easily lead to a General Election ...

... in that case, Farage has already sworn that he will field a nationwide set of candidates for his Brexit Party.

If you think the Brexit party cannot possibly win, then you are an absolutely awful judge of politics lol!

Farage & his Brexit Party may not be the favourites in a GE, but they already showed that they can count on about 30% of the electorate as absolutely insistent on voting for Farage regardless of any other policies or any other issues at all. That, by any parties standards, is a very big threat indeed ...

... and they do not need anything else at all in a Manifesto. For Farage, the Brexit party, and about 30% of the electorate, this would be a one-issue election.

30% may not be enough to give Farage victory, but he would probably only need to pick up another 6% or 7% (something like that … keep in mind, that would be 6% -7% votes gone from any of the other parties).

Personally as I said above, I think the most likely result would be a narrowish Labour victory, with say a Majority of maybe 15 seats. But another obvious possibility is that Labour and Lib Dem could agree on an anti-Brexit coalition, with their votes added together to give a majority of maybe about 30 or 40.

 

[Vixen]

A single data point from a single industry at a single point in time reflecting a brief constriction for a particular job role. Comprehensive studies have shown that EU immigration has not driven down wages:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...achment_data/file/741926/Final_EEA_report.PDF

Page 9, point 8:

In terms of wages the existing evidence and the analysis we present in the
report suggests that migration is not a major determinate of the wages of UKborn workers. We found some evidence suggesting that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact while higher-skilled workers benefit, however the
magnitude of the impacts are generally small.

As the lower skilled worker comprises the vast majority, then there is a negative impact in general. I am not sure how the higher skilled benefit as the highly skilled from East Europe are happy to settle for a lower salary than a UK professional, simply because it is still much better than what they would have got at home.