Odds Standard and Time-Consuming Protocols
On May 10, 2008, I sent the following e-mail to
challenge@randi.org
I recently initiated the following thread on the Million Dollar
Challenge Forum --
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.p...18#post3692318
What I argue on that thread is that: (a) In tests where the odds of
success can be readily calculated, it is unclear what odds standard
must be met; and (b) It is unclear whether time-consuming protocols,
such as Ganzfeld experiments, are eligible for the Challenge.
Therefore, I recommend that something along the lines of the following
be added to the Challenge Rules:
"(1) An applicant must pass a preliminary test, in which the general
criterion for success will be that the applicant must perform at
significantly above the chance level. In tests where the odds of
success can be readily calculated -- such as numbers guessing -- the
applicant must perform at least at the P=.001 level; that is, the odds
must be only one in one thousand that the applicant could have
achieved that performance level by random chance. (However, if the
applicant achieves a lesser, but above chance, performance level in a
limited number of tests -- for example, if the applicant performs at
the P=.05 level in 20 trials -- the preliminary test may be extended
on a different day or days to include more trials.) If the applicant
passes the preliminary test, a final test will be administered, in
which the performance level must meet a significantly more stringent
criterion for the million dollar prize to be awarded. In tests where
the odds of success can be readily calculated, the applicant must
perform at least at the P=.000001 level; that is, for the prize to be
awarded, the odds must be only one in one million that the applicant
could have achieved that performance level by random chance.
"(2) All protocols, including time-consuming ones such as Ganzfeld
experiments, are eligible for the Challenge; or
"(2a) Some time-consuming protocols, such as Ganzfeld experiments, are
not eligible for the Challenge due to the impact on JREF resources."
If you wish, you may respond to these questions on the above thread.
Thank you,
Rodney
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On February 3, 2009, I attached the above e-mail to a follow-up e-mail:
I did not receive a response to the below inquiry. Some Randi Forum participants suggested that I jog your memory about it.
Regards,
Rodney
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The next day Jeff Wagg responded as follows:
Hello Rodney,
Thanks for the suggestions. So you know, the challenge rules are being reconsidered, and we'll take your suggestions into account.
If we do make changes, they'll be posted publicly.
Jeff
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While it was nice of Jeff to respond to my follow-up e-mail, my suggestions were never taken into account. The JREF Challenge Rules were not changed to accommodate those concerns (See
http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/...plication.html), nor did I ever receive a "detailed and official answer" as to why the JREF Challenge Rules could not be so clarified. Thus, to this day, it remains unclear what odds standard must be met and whether time-consuming protocols are eligible for the Challenge.
