Obamacare Means 1/3 Fewer MDs

[joobz]

Ready for rationing?

A total of 1,195 physicians from various specialties and career levels in locations nationally were surveyed. Nearly one-third of physicians responding to the survey indicated that they will want to leave medical practice after health reform is implemented.

This combined with the expected increase in demand could result in 50% reduction in available physicians.

http://www.nejmjobs.org/rpt/health-reform-may-reduce-physician-workforce.aspx

1,195 physicians more interested in money then patients leave the field?
Sounds like a net gain to me.

 

[Lurker]

You're forgetting that the AMA limits the number of medical school slots in order to keepn the number of doctors artificially low and their prices high. It's not a free market, it's a cartel.

I believe this was debunked by mhaze or BAC, I can't remember which. Nobody is stopping someone from opening another medical school.

 

[drkitten]

1,195 physicians more interested in money then patients leave the field?
Sounds like a net gain to me.

Especially since my bet is approximately 0% of those physicians would actually leave the field.

After spending 10+ years to get a medical licence, the idea of walking away from it in a political snit-fit seems "unlikely."

Remember all those idiots who threatened to move to Canada if Bush won in 2004? Remember all those other idiots who threatened to move to Canada if Obama won in 2008? How many of them actually carried out that threat?

 

[joobz]

Especially since my bet is approximately 0% of those physicians would actually leave the field.

After spending 10+ years to get a medical licence, the idea of walking away from it in a political snit-fit seems "unlikely."

Remember all those idiots who threatened to move to Canada if Bush won in 2004? Remember all those other idiots who threatened to move to Canada if Obama won in 2008? How many of them actually carried out that threat?

I can see some of the doctor's who are close to retirement leaving earlier and making a big show of it as protest. Unless, of course, their retirement portfolio was a bit too heavy in real estate over the past couple years.

 

[Upchurch]

You're forgetting that the AMA limits the number of medical school slots in order to keepn the number of doctors artificially low and their prices high. It's not a free market, it's a cartel.

I believe this was debunked by mhaze or BAC, I can't remember which.

Really? mhaze or BAC debunked it?

Maybe WildCat is correct after all....

 

[GreyICE]

Ready for rationing?

A total of 1,195 physicians from various specialties and career levels in locations nationally were surveyed. Nearly one-third of physicians responding to the survey indicated that they will want to leave medical practice after health reform is implemented.

This combined with the expected increase in demand could result in 50% reduction in available physicians.

http://www.nejmjobs.org/rpt/health-reform-may-reduce-physician-workforce.aspx

First, are you familiar with a phenomena called 'lying?' It's where people... don't tell the truth.

Second, the source of this is reasonably questionable. The article sources Market Watch. Market Watch is a website run by the... Wall Street Journal.

So this is a Rupert Murdoch poll. A tad deceptively sourced, too.

With no data on the original poll or how it was conducted, no data on the methodology, and the sourcing coming from an organization known for producing complete bull, I call nonsense poll. Provide data, or get off the pot.

 

[Loss Leader]

A total of 1,195 physicians from various specialties and career levels in locations nationally were surveyed. Nearly one-third of physicians responding to the survey indicated that they will want to leave medical practice after health reform is implemented.

This assumes that the doctors actually understand the new health care law and are able to correctly predict how it will affect the market.

I find that amazing as the new health care legislation isn't in any sort of final form that allows for this kind of analysis.

Perhaps the doctors were responding irrationally based upon a lack of information.

 

[Delscottio]

First, are you familiar with a phenomena called 'lying?' It's where people... don't tell the truth.
[snip]

What, like this lot? http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/features/newsid_1320000/1320850.stm

Shame they didn't keep to their promises....

 

[Neally]

First, are you familiar with a phenomena called 'lying?' It's where people... don't tell the truth.

I guess Gallup should just close up shop then, after all, everyone that is polled could be lying.

 

[Architect]

Neally,how familiar are you with the actual operation of universal health care systems in comparable Western countries and to what extent do you believe that the outcomes of said systems are applicable to the US?

 

[GreyICE]

I guess Gallup should just close up shop then, after all, everyone that is polled could be lying.

Guess you're just going to ignore the fact that the poll was run by a Murdoch shop, after all, that's not relevant. I guess you're just going to misrepresent me and lie, after all, honesty is overrated. I guess you're going to weasel around the point, after all, it's about spin and misrepresentation, not truth and skepticism.

Do you have an answer for what I asked, or is it going to be more of the same next post?

 

[Neally]

With no data on the original poll or how it was conducted, no data on the methodology, and the sourcing coming from an organization known for producing complete bull, I call nonsense poll. Provide data, or get off the pot.

"The survey sample was randomly selected from a physician database of thousands. The database has been built over the past eight years by The Medicus Firm (formerly Medicus Partners and The MD Firm) from a variety of sources including, but not limited to, public directories, purchased lists, practice inquiries, training programs, and direct mail responses. The survey was conducted via emails sent directly to physicians."

This article was written in January 2010. The survey was conducted by The Medicus Firm, a nationally retained physician search firm, based on the health reform legislation in process at that time.

Guess you're just going to ignore the fact that the poll was run by a Murdoch shop

Do provide the connection with the Medicus Firm to "a Murdoch shop".

Neally,how familiar are you with the actual operation of universal health care systems in comparable Western countries and to what extent do you believe that the outcomes of said systems are applicable to the US?

Topic here isn't so much about a comparison of UHC and the proposal in Congress, but about the possibility of a severe MD shortage and resulting rationing should Obamacare pass.

 

[Architect]

Neally, no one said that it was; I asked how familiar you were with comparable systems as - by your reasoning - we should all be facing some sort of terrible doctor shortage.

 

[theprestige]

Good luck in their new careers!

Why would they need a new career?

A part-time job to pay for food and shelter, and if they can't afford healthcare, the government will pay for it!

 

[joobz]

Topic here isn't so much about a comparison of UHC and the proposal in Congress, but about the possibility of a severe MD shortage and resulting rationing should Obamacare pass.

Well, I guess we can close the thread, then since the topic is done.

The majority of Doctor's won't actually quit. (As Drkitten explained)
The doctors who would quit are likely not to be missed.

 

[GreyICE]

"The survey sample was randomly selected from a physician database of thousands. The database has been built over the past eight years by The Medicus Firm (formerly Medicus Partners and The MD Firm) from a variety of sources including, but not limited to, public directories, purchased lists, practice inquiries, training programs, and direct mail responses. The survey was conducted via emails sent directly to physicians."

This article was written in January 2010. The survey was conducted by The Medicus Firm, a nationally retained physician search firm, based on the health reform legislation in process at that time.

Do provide the connection with the Medicus Firm to "a Murdoch shop".

It's right there under where the information was reported, in the article you linked to - Market Watch. A murdoch shop. Now stop being disingenuous, if there was no connection, find the original survey and point to it. Let us see methodology, questions asked, who funded the survey, etc.

A headhunting firm (which is all they are) got paid to do a hack job poll is the only thing I see going on here. And you really, really want it to be true.

 

[The True Scotsman]

Ready for rationing?

A total of 1,195 physicians from various specialties and career levels in locations nationally were surveyed. Nearly one-third of physicians responding to the survey indicated that they will want to leave medical practice after health reform is implemented.

This combined with the expected increase in demand could result in 50% reduction in available physicians.

http://www.nejmjobs.org/rpt/health-reform-may-reduce-physician-workforce.aspx

For reasons already explained in previous posts, it is extremely unlikely that the currently trained medical practitioners will leave the field over this bill passing (with exception to soon retiring medical practitioners). The shortage, if one arises, will happen in the long run (where less people enter into the medical field), not the short run.

 

[Gangularis]

Really? mhaze or BAC debunked it?

Maybe WildCat is correct after all....

LOL! I was about to say that... Like seriously? BaC?

 

[The True Scotsman]

So, where does the rationing come in?

You may or may not be familiar with this, but there is an economic theory out there called "capitalism". It deals a lot with a concept called "supply and demand". When the supply of doctors goes down, the demand goes up. With the rise in demand, the compensation for doctors will go up. This will entice more people to enter (or stay in) the field, thus equalizing the supply and demand.

That works when you're discussing the free market, but government programs and policies don't necessarily follow the same rules. If the final bill contains a fixed wage for medical practitioners, then no matter how many practitioners leave or enter the field, the wages of these practitioners will remain the same.

 

[fullflavormenthol]

Let me go out on a limb and declare 3/4s of that 1/3 are talking out their backsides. Sure they are going to quit being doctors, but when the time comes to put up or shut up they will stay in the medical profession.

Funny thing about "going Galt" is that you soon realize that there is always someone better looking for the chance to overtake you.