Obamacare Means 1/3 Fewer MDs

[Neally]

Ready for rationing?

A total of 1,195 physicians from various specialties and career levels in locations nationally were surveyed. Nearly one-third of physicians responding to the survey indicated that they will want to leave medical practice after health reform is implemented.

This combined with the expected increase in demand could result in 50% reduction in available physicians.

http://www.nejmjobs.org/rpt/health-reform-may-reduce-physician-workforce.aspx

 

[Darat]

Good luck in their new careers!

 

[Upchurch]

Ready for rationing?

A total of 1,195 physicians from various specialties and career levels in locations nationally were surveyed. Nearly one-third of physicians responding to the survey indicated that they will want to leave medical practice after health reform is implemented.

This combined with the expected increase in demand could result in 50% reduction in available physicians.

http://www.nejmjobs.org/rpt/health-reform-may-reduce-physician-workforce.aspx

So, where does the rationing come in?

You may or may not be familiar with this, but there is an economic theory out there called "capitalism". It deals a lot with a concept called "supply and demand". When the supply of doctors goes down, the demand goes up. With the rise in demand, the compensation for doctors will go up. This will entice more people to enter (or stay in) the field, thus equalizing the supply and demand.

If someone wanted to game the system, they could tell others they planned to quit and encourage others to do the same. Then, they could (get this) not leave the workforce and watch the big bucks start rolling in. Just sayin'.


In all seriousness, I really doubt that many doctors will follow through on an ideological stance, especially a stupid one like "I'll quit if any health care reform is enacted, so ". I would be interested to see those number juxtapose against those doctors who are considering leaving the profession over the current exorbitant insurance premiums.

 

[WildCat]

You may or may not be familiar with this, but there is an economic theory out there called "capitalism". It deals a lot with a concept called "supply and demand". When the supply of doctors goes down, the demand goes up. With the rise in demand, the compensation for doctors will go up. This will entice more people to enter (or stay in) the field, thus equalizing the supply and demand.

You're forgetting that the AMA limits the number of medical school slots in order to keepn the number of doctors artificially low and their prices high. It's not a free market, it's a cartel.

 

[ponderingturtle]

You're forgetting that the AMA limits the number of medical school slots in order to keepn the number of doctors artificially low and their prices high. It's not a free market, it's a cartel.

But medicine is a funny thing, more doctors can just as easily increase demand for their services. IF the doctor is not all that busy and so says that you should come back for review in 3 months instead of 6 months, they have just increased the demand for their services right there.

There was an adage about this relating to cataract surgery.

If there is one doctor in town this is done at 20/200
If there are two doctors in town this is done at 20/80
If there are three doctors in town this is done at 20/40

There are all kinds of ways under worked doctors can increase the amount of work they have by telling patients they need more work that they might if they had sufficient work.

 

[Neally]

With the rise in demand, the compensation for doctors will go up. This will entice more people to enter (or stay in) the field, thus equalizing the supply and demand.

I see, therefore Obamacare will result in the loss of MDs which will cause prices to go up. Great thing this Obamacare. Oh, and you don't think that it's possible that insurance companies will put a cap on allowed costs for procedures, thus negating your idea that remaining physicians will just jack up prices?

There are all kinds of ways under worked doctors can increase the amount of work they have by telling patients they need more work that they might if they had sufficient work.

The point here is that MDs won't have to make work, they will be overworked, to the point where demand will exceed supply, thus the possibility of rationing.

 

[drkitten]

You're forgetting that the AMA limits the number of medical school slots in order to keepn the number of doctors artificially low and their prices high. It's not a free market, it's a cartel.

It's a good thing that he's forgetting it. It would be better if he never learned it in the first place, because it's simply not true.

Medical school slots are controlled by state boards of education, as are medical licensing; the AMA has nothing to do with them.

 

[daenku32]

You're forgetting that the AMA limits the number of medical school slots in order to keepn the number of doctors artificially low and their prices high. It's not a free market, it's a cartel.

No they do not. The only references I have seen to this are more than a decade old. AMA current policy is for increasing the number of doctors because of the shortage.

 

[ponderingturtle]

The point here is that MDs won't have to make work, they will be overworked, to the point where demand will exceed supply, thus the possibility of rationing.

Evidence? We have a lot of structural issues that can be the cause of this as well. The systems that increase work for doctors might be increasing it more than they should.

 

[Alferd_Packer]

What do you call someone who graduated last in his class at medical school?

Doctor

 

[thaiboxerken]

As to the OP, right......and Rush Limbaugh is really going to leave the country as well.

 

[Neally]

Evidence? We have a lot of structural issues that can be the cause of this as well. The systems that increase work for doctors might be increasing it more than they should.

Are you saying that a 50% reduction in the number of MDs will not lead to rationing? A shortage is already happening without Obamacare. http://www.examiner.com/x-5968-DC-Public-Policy-Examiner~y2010m1d29-Medical-college-associations-predict-physician-shortage-of-up-to-160000-by-2025

Medical school slots are controlled by state boards of education, as are medical licensing; the AMA has nothing to do with them.

While true, the supply of MDs is in a large part dependent on Congress due to Medicare funding. http://www.examiner.com/x-5968-DC-Public-Policy-Examiner~y2010m1d29-Medical-college-associations-predict-physician-shortage-of-up-to-160000-by-2025

 

[ponderingturtle]

Are you saying that a 50% reduction in the number of MDs will not lead to rationing? A shortage is already happening without Obamacare.

I don't see a 50% reduction in the number of doctors happening. What jobs are they taking, or what countries are they going to to practice medicine?

I am unconvinced that there is a general shortage in doctors. There are some structural issues regarding primary care but that isn't being addressed by our current system either.

 

[drkitten]

While true, the supply of MDs is in a large part dependent on Congress due to Medicare funding. http://www.examiner.com/x-5968-DC-Public-Policy-Examiner~y2010m1d29-Medical-college-associations-predict-physician-shortage-of-up-to-160000-by-2025

So now you're telling me that Congress and the AMA are the same thing?

 

[Beerina]

There was an adage about this relating to cataract surgery.

If there is one doctor in town this is done at 20/200
If there are two doctors in town this is done at 20/80
If there are three doctors in town this is done at 20/40

Studies have flat-out shown that adding doctors does not reduce costs, and in fact can increase costs while not increasing outcomes one iota.

So something is going awry with the capitalist competition here. Of course, the most likely culprit is more people attaching themselves to some payment teat, and probably private insurance.

I don't have a full analysis, but it's clear something is odd in this situation.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Studies have flat-out shown that adding doctors does not reduce costs, and in fact can increase costs while not increasing outcomes one iota.

Sure, but it means we can't say that fewer doctors than we have couldn't do as good or better job

So something is going awry with the capitalist competition here. Of course, the most likely culprit is more people attaching themselves to some payment teat, and probably private insurance.

Knew you would say that.

 

[Magyar]

Oh WAIT! NOW it's FIFTY percent of doctors

Could you AT LEAST be consistant about the number you pull out of your John Brown parts!?

Really WHAT evidence have you you that this kind of reduction has EVER happened in ANY industry in ANY time frame in the workd ofr ANY reason.

Your assertions are so patently looney they aren't even really worth commenting on!

 

[Upchurch]

I see, therefore Obamacare will result in the loss of MDs which will cause prices to go up. Great thing this Obamacare.

Mmmmm... cherry-picking.

Oh, and you don't think that it's possible that insurance companies will put a cap on allowed costs for procedures, thus negating your idea that remaining physicians will just jack up prices?

What prevents them from doing that now (assuming they don't)?


When you finish reading my post, let me know.

 

[Beeyon]

It's a good thing that he's forgetting it. It would be better if he never learned it in the first place, because it's simply not true.

Medical school slots are controlled by state boards of education, as are medical licensing; the AMA has nothing to do with them.

Medical school accreditation comes from The Liaison Committee on Medical Education, which is sponsored by the AMA. So it's not quite fair to say they have nothing to do with how many schools there are.

I understand that there are other factors like the government's funding for residency positions. But is there any evidence of the AMA trying to increase the supply of doctors?

I know that they talk about wanting more doctors, but it seems like they want to make sure the available positions for doctors increases first, before pushing for more schools/doctors. That seems to indicate that they are acting like a cartel.

Edited to Add:

I found the evidence I asked for.

The United States stopped opening medical schools in the 1980s because of the predicted surplus of doctors. The Association of American Medical Colleges dropped this long-standing view in 2002 with the statement: "It now appears that those predictions may be in error." Last month, it recommended increasing the number of U.S. medical students by 15%.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-03-02-doctor-shortage_x.htm

Though that (old) article does make it look like the AMA was trying to restrict the supply of doctors up until the 2000s. So. Semi-Cartel, I guess.

 

[mhaze]

Ready for rationing?

A total of 1,195 physicians from various specialties and career levels in locations nationally were surveyed. Nearly one-third of physicians responding to the survey indicated that they will want to leave medical practice after health reform is implemented.

This combined with the expected increase in demand could result in 50% reduction in available physicians.

http://www.nejmjobs.org/rpt/health-reform-may-reduce-physician-workforce.aspx

Where is the problem? You just pull in some of those unemployed people from ACORN, slap that MD name on them, and pay them high doctor-style salaries.

Think progressively, man!