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Merged Now What?

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interesting that European markets all tanked harder than the UK yesterday huh?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...he-worlds-400-richest-people-lose-127-billion

For all the scaremongering and threats of an imminent financial apocalypse should Brexit win, including dire forecasts from the likes of George Soros, the Bank of England, David Cameron (who even invoked war), and even Jacob Rothschild, something "unexpected" happened yesterday: the UK was the best performing European market following the Brexit outcome.

This outcome was just as we expected three days ago for reasons that we penned in "Is Soros Wrong", where we said "in a world in which central banks rush to devalue their currency at any means necessary just to gain a modest competitive advantage in global trade wars, a GBP collapse is precisely what the BOE should want, if it means kickstarting the UK economy."

On Friday, the market started to price it in too, and in the process revealed that the biggest sovereign losers from Brexit will not be the UK but Europe.
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I suspect that the Brexiteerswankers who want to wait and see what happens ("No, we don't need to trigger Article 50"), at least until the new leader is selected, may be outflanked by Sturgeon, particularly if EU opens discussions with her in the next few days/weeks with regard to Scotland (and perhaps other parts of the UK-at this point I wouldn't be surprised at anything) becoming a successor member.
 
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Francesca R said:
Really I think the prediction that can be made with the most certainty is that the UK leaves the EU and essentially never goes back in. No idea why so many are trying to imagine otherwise. I don't like it but there it is.
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I agree we've made our decision the only question now is exactly when. Personally I think Cameron should have exercised article 50 immediately. Not as any kind of "you asked for it" but so that the period of uncertainty is reduced as much as possible.
 
lionking said:
You've said this before. You have absolutely no idea. I've studied Irish history. I've visited there several times and have Irish friends there and here. I've seen the massive change in the Irish political landscape over the past 20 years. The IRA has been neutralised. There are no more Ian Paisleys spewing hate. Soldiers no longer clog the streets of Belfast.

Those who think that there is no chance of a reunification referendum in the wake of Brexit are the ones who don't understand Irish history and politics.
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Eh? Paisley Jnr is still spouting the exact same CT and hatred as his father did.
 
Darat said:
Personally I think Cameron should have exercised article 50 immediately. Not as any kind of "you asked for it" but so that the period of uncertainty is reduced as much as possible.
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I do too. And I would not expect him to have committed any act of sabotage as "captain" of the (sinking?) ship. And as for whether it would be tough for him to begin that process--well, tough, it's his mess.

I must say the Brexit Bigwigs' chorus of "no rush" comes over as significant weakness. Maybe not so much of a surprise that so many folks are reading this as buyer's remorse. But the country simply has to leave.
 
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Francesca R said:
Unfortunately I suspect base case is that they do, exceptional case is that they don't.
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This is such a one off issue I am not sure what to base a presumption the people will change their mind on
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My view is that the youth are more used to foreigners and less scared. I don't find myself becoming more racist or xenophobic as I age, do you?
 
Darat said:
Personally I think Cameron should have exercised article 50 immediately. Not as any kind of "you asked for it" but so that the period of uncertainty is reduced as much as possible.
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Is anyone entirely clear *how* we exercise article 50? Was it even in Cameron's power to do so immediately? Was it discussed or even considered before the referendum?

If it wasn't in his power then that suggests that either the vote is a de facto exercise of the article or that it requires the assent of parliament. The latter could be amusing when MPs line up to vote :)

If it is in the PMs power, and his/hers alone, but he failed to exercise it then presumably we have to wait for a new PM. And Cameron is additionally twattish for not doing his job before resigning.

edit: If the vote was constitutional and binding I'm going for the de fact option.
 
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Klimax said:
Aka somebody used apples-to-crater comparison?
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Not really. They took a simple measure that supported their point. It's a rather facile point though as nobody who wanted to Remain ever said that Europe would not be affected either. Quite the opposite indeed. That everyone's economy was flushed down the toilet by the decision doesn't really make a great case for the decision being correct even if true that Britain was less affected.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
I believe the point is that if you also factor in how much the £ lost against the Euro then if you measure in the same currency the UK market dropped more.
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so you are saying that more "real" value was wiped from UK markets, taking into account currency moves?

hmm. the big move was GBPUSD, but EURUSD also fell, albeit not nearly as much, so EURGBP wasn't as pronounced, moving from 0.76 to 0.81 at close, and so is only back where it was in May 2014 before the whole Brexit thing started, and only fractionally above levels we reached in April this year.

[IMGW=850]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/eurgbp.png[/IMGW]

and fundamentally I think the Euro is a weaker currency than GBP long term now, and nothing actually changed yet to justify the moves yesterday, so the market moves are purely arbitrary in range, driven by traders, there is actually no reason for a currency devaluation at all, yet.

but given we have now had one anyway, (without even having to QE it) presumably the UK can now expect the standard Keynesian driven devaluation boom for the next few months / year, while the EU continues to miss it's very low growth/ inflation targets?

I suspect the pound selling is very overdone at this stage, personally, and with regards the Euro in particular, will reverse again in due course.
 
GlennB said:
Is anyone entirely clear *how* we exercise article 50? Was it even in Cameron's power to do so immediately? Was it discussed or even considered before the referendum?

If it wasn't in his power then that suggests that either the vote is a de facto exercise of the article or that it requires the assent of parliament. The latter could be amusing when MPs line up to vote :)

If it is in the PMs power, and his/hers alone, but he failed to exercise it then presumably we have to wait for a new PM. And Cameron is additionally twattish for not doing his job before resigning.
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It seems to be Cameron's decision - which presumably means he could have resigned from the EU without a referendum if he had wanted to? - but there was no requirement for Cameron to do it immediately following the referendum. Technically there's no requirement for him to do it at all.

Presumably Parliament could force him to implement the decision if it came to it and they voted that way.
 
kevsta said:
so you are saying that more "real" value was wiped from UK markets, taking into account currency moves?
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No I'm not saying anything other than answering your question by explaining what I believe was meant by the comment. And it's becoming increasingly annoying when people attribute to me arguments I haven't made.
 
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