Merged Now What?

[Francesca R]

Really I think the prediction that can be made with the most certainty is that the UK leaves the EU and essentially never goes back in. No idea why so many are trying to imagine otherwise. I don't like it but there it is.

 

[lionking]

There is no sign of the necessary support either for an independent NI and certainly not for a unified Ireland.

A solid Remain vote changes everything in my view. And I'm not ignorant of Irish history and politics.

 

[Francesca R]

A solid Remain vote changes everything in my view.

In mine it doesn't move the needle at all

And I'm not ignorant of Irish history and politics.

It really does not come over that way. Really.

 

[GlennB]

yes, after being trapped in the status quo by their previous appointees, they were both then allowed the illusion of some choice again afterwards.

IF you want, but Cameron's resignation is not part of this pattern. The EU wanted a remain vote with Cameron still in place today. What has happened is diametrically opposite to your so-called 'precendent'.

 

[kevsta]

IF you want, but Cameron's resignation is not part of this pattern. The EU wanted a remain vote with Cameron still in place today. What has happened is diametrically opposite to your so-called 'precendent'.

you dont think they will be currently very interested in who gets the job next?

Really I think the prediction that can be made with the most certainty is that the UK leaves the EU and essentially never goes back in. No idea why so many are trying to imagine otherwise. I don't like it but there it is.

I really hope so, but I am more skeptical of the "democratic process" and unable to believe this without question.

 

[lionking]

It really does not come over that way. Really.

You've said this before. You have absolutely no idea. I've studied Irish history. I've visited there several times and have Irish friends there and here. I've seen the massive change in the Irish political landscape over the past 20 years. The IRA has been neutralised. There are no more Ian Paisleys spewing hate. Soldiers no longer clog the streets of Belfast.

Those who think that there is no chance of a reunification referendum in the wake of Brexit are the ones who don't understand Irish history and politics.

 

[Lothian]

Really I think the prediction that can be made with the most certainty is that the UK leaves the EU and essentially never goes back in. No idea why so many are trying to imagine otherwise. I don't like it but there it is.

The age demographics in this chart suggest that things may change one day.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/LR-by-demographics.jpg

I guess it depends on why you think there is a difference between the age groups..

Edited by Agatha: 

edited for rule 5

 

[lionking]

The age demographics in this chart suggest that things may change one day.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/LR-by-demographics.jpg

Edited by Agatha: 

edited for rule 5

I guess it depends on why you think there is a difference between the age groups..

The older you are, the more racist you are. No great surprise.

 

[Lothian]

The older you are, the more racist you are. No great surprise.

I think that is true but I don't think you have to be racist to vote leave. A lot of racists will have voted leave but there were other reasons why non racists would have felt leave was the best option. As pointed out by Darat, somewhere, the immigrants demonised in this campaign are white and largely Christian.

 

[anduin]

Scotland yes; Norn Iron, not a chance.

I lived in Northern Ireland for 4 years, so I'm quite familiar with the politics, AND
I don't think it's as preposterous as you might think.

Demographics have been moving towards nationalism for the last couple of decades, with the religious figures currently sitting at 40% Catholic, and 45% protestant. Religion does not correlate exactly with either nationalism and unionism, but some analysis I have read calculates that nationalists would need a swing of 10% from unionists to be able to swing a reunification vote.

This is where things get interesting. If you look at the EU referendum vote, the Leave and Remain vote was divided roughly along sectarian lines, but the more moderate unionists tended to favour Remain, and the DUP was strongly for Leave. The big difference is in the border counties, where the vote was overwhelmingly for remain. These are not necessarily nationalist areas, but they have a strong interest in keeping the border open.

So, all you need for an Irish unification vote is for 10% of unionists to vote for it, and it is possible that younger, less sectarian, moderate protestants in the borders would swing the vote.

HOWEVER, the DUP, and the more sectarian Protestants won't go down easy, the Troubles could make a come back, particularly because the Good Friday agreement is guaranteed by the EU.

 

[Planigale]

I rather like Charlie's take on the situation.

.

CASE NIGHTMARE TWEED

That's a good one!

 

[anduin]

We will never know it would fail unless it's called.

Would a spike in Northern Irish taking out Republic citizenship change your view? Because this will almost certainly happen.

It's already happening:

Ian Paisley Jr calls on people to take an Irish passport (he calls it second passport, but in Norn Iron everyone knows what that means):
https://twitter.com/ianpaisleymp/status/746316224024481792

The Belfast Post Office has run out of Irish passport forms:
https://twitter.com/Saraita101/status/746670058068447232/photo/1

This could happen.

 

[catsmate]

The older you are, the more racist you are. No great surprise.

I think it's more than that. Innate social (small c) conservatism and fear of change allied to a rosy view of Ye Goode Olde Days.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The age demographics in this chart suggest that things may change one day.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/LR-by-demographics.jpg

Edited by Agatha: 

edited for rule 5

I guess it depends on why you think there is a difference between the age groups..

Haven't done the sums but looks a lot like had 16/17 year olds been allowed to vote as happened in Indyref then we might have seen Remain win?

 

[Francesca R]

The age demographics in this chart suggest that things may change one day.

There will be even more old people in years to come. In absolute terms and a percentage of the total.

 

[catsmate]

I lived in Northern Ireland for 4 years, so I'm quite familiar with the politics, AND
I don't think it's as preposterous as you might think.

I have also lived there, and have lived in Ireland for most of my 45 years. I've been active in politics and other area. I've very familiar with the situation.

Demographics have been moving towards nationalism for the last couple of decades, with the religious figures currently sitting at 40% Catholic, and 45% protestant. Religion does not correlate exactly with either nationalism and unionism, but some analysis I have read calculates that nationalists would need a swing of 10% from unionists to be able to swing a reunification vote.

True. However there's also the facts; while there may be support for staying in the EU, this does not translate directly into support for joining Ireland. Further even most NI politicians understand that an independent NI is not a workable solution

This is where things get interesting. If you look at the EU referendum vote, the Leave and Remain vote was divided roughly along sectarian lines, but the more moderate unionists tended to favour Remain, and the DUP was strongly for Leave. The big difference is in the border counties, where the vote was overwhelmingly for remain. These are not necessarily nationalist areas, but they have a strong interest in keeping the border open.

(1) The border counties (and that's a poor phrase given the geography) in the form of Fermanagh, soth Armagh, south Tyrone and west Derry are heavily nationalist and very dependent on cross-border trade (of both kinds)
(2) Opposing brexit does not translate to supporting unification with Ireland.

So, all you need for an Irish unification vote is for 10% of unionists to vote for it, and it is possible that younger, less sectarian, moderate protestants in the borders would swing the vote.

It's not going to happen. Further Ireland isn't going to be enthusiastic about the prospect; it's be a disaster for us.

HOWEVER, the DUP, and the more sectarian Protestants won't go down easy, the Troubles could make a come back, particularly because the Good Friday agreement is guaranteed by the EU.

It's a lot more complicated than that.

 

[Craig B]

There will be even more old people in years to come. In absolute terms and a percentage of the total.

But these "new old people" won't necessarily have changed the beliefs they had when they were younger, or at least that's the idea.

 

[catsmate]

It's already happening:

Ian Paisley Jr calls on people to take an Irish passport (he calls it second passport, but in Norn Iron everyone knows what that means):
https://twitter.com/ianpaisleymp/status/746316224024481792

The Belfast Post Office has run out of Irish passport forms:
https://twitter.com/Saraita101/status/746670058068447232/photo/1

This could happen.

The passport office has ordered a new batch of forms printed.

 

[Francesca R]

But these "new old people" won't necessarily have changed the beliefs they had when they were younger, or at least that's the idea.

Unfortunately I suspect base case is that they do, exceptional case is that they don't.

 

[catsmate]

In further news:
Michael Ryan, chairman of the Independent Film and Television Alliance (trade association for companies behind independent film and TV) has described the UK exit from the EU as "likely to be devastating" for the creative sector.

"This decision has just blown up our foundation — as of today, we no longer know how our relationships with co-producers, financiers and distributors will work, whether new taxes will be dropped on our activities in the rest of Europe, or how production financing is going to be raised without any input from European funding agencies."

Michael Butcher says several UK startups have lost funding contingent on UK EU membership and may collapse.

UK EU commissioner, Jonathan Hill (financial services), has resigned. He was a recovered Euroskeptic, saying "our membership was good for our place in the world and good for our economy.

"A bewildering act of self-harm"

Nicola Sturgeon is inviting all EU diplomats based in Scotland to a summit at her official residence in Edinburgh within the next two weeks, in a bid to sidestep the UK government.