North Korea's Military Capabilities

[Skwinty]

From there:

Yeh, given SK is non prolif treaty signatory and has signed treaties wrt bio/chem weapons.

Journalist typo?

 

[Ziggurat]

When the invasion took place, it was not considered to be a parody, nor was it considered a war.

It was considered a flagrant transgression of international law.

You say that like war and "flagrant transgression of international law" are mutually contradictory. But that's silly. Of course they aren't.

My comments in this thread really have to do with the perception that any war undertaken by the West will be a cake walk.

I'm not seeing anyone suggest that to be the case. Pretty much everyone acknowledges that there would be massive casualties.

NK then drops a dirty nuclear bomb on the south and its allies. The bomb does not have to be delivered by means of an missile, just dropped from an aircraft.

You think North Korea is going to be able to get an aircraft over a South Korean population center?

Yeah, not gonna happen.

What is the next step, world peace?

If North Korea did manage to get a successful nuclear weapon strike, the next step is the total annihilation of the North Korean state. There's no way in hell China would continue to back them, and we might even use nukes ourselves. Using a nuke is the easiest way to guarantee that we win, because that raises the stakes so high we can't afford not to go all in.

Noth Korea comes out the loser in basically any scenario where war breaks out. The only way they can possibly come out ahead is if the fighting remains sufficiently limited and localized that it's not really a war but a skirmish. Such a scenario is certainly possible. But they cannot win a war.

Now, it's also true that we (meaning both the US and South Korea) want more than just the North losing in a war. We want casualties to be small. And they very well might not be. They could be in the millions. But as I mentioned, if war breaks out, our casualties will primarily be at the beginning. Which means we won't have an incentive to stop short of victory once actual war breaks out.

Hitler also thought that his blitzkrieg would be a cake walk.

We are not Hitler, and North Korea isn't the USSR.

 

[Skwinty]

Then China fires back when it realises how many of it people will die from fallout

Game over man...game over

Precisely, hence no such thing as a cake walk.

 

[IDB87]

His blitzkrieg failed in Russia, and no matter how successful the blitzkrieg was, he lost the war.

Why do you think that was? Do you think the Russians were able to out produce and out maneuver the German forces? The T34 was also the most produced tank of the war, and the most cost-effective one at that when compared to Germany's arsenal.

The blitzkrieg was very successful in Poland, France, Holland and so one,
but there was no real opposition there. I mean, mechanised troops against men on horses.

Actually, that comparison is quite accurate to American and SK vs the North. The difference in tech and training is quite substantial insofar that a cake walk is inevitable. Also, the bolded bit is a myth. Read up on it.

 

[Skwinty]

You say that like war and "flagrant transgression of international law" are mutually contradictory. But that's silly. Of course they aren't.

Not every declaration of war is a transgression of international law.
When 109 countries vote against 9 for no invasion, that is transgressing the law, or is it not?

I'm not seeing anyone suggest that to be the case. Pretty much everyone acknowledges that there would be massive casualties..

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6797598&postcount=4
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6798448&postcount=22
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6801229&postcount=68
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6802867&postcount=97
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6804186&postcount=105
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6804321&postcount=109

These posts certainly imply how easy it will be to defeat NK.

You think North Korea is going to be able to get an aircraft over a South Korean population center?

Yeah, not gonna happen..

Maybe, maybe not. Quite difficult to intercept a nuclear shell though.

Or a barrage of missiles. NK is known by the US to be the largest proliferator of missiles in the world.

I will find the name of US official who said that if you doubt this.

If North Korea did manage to get a successful nuclear weapon strike, the next step is the total annihilation of the North Korean state. There's no way in hell China would continue to back them, and we might even use nukes ourselves. Using a nuke is the easiest way to guarantee that we win, because that raises the stakes so high we can't afford not to go all in.

Noth Korea comes out the loser in basically any scenario where war breaks out. The only way they can possibly come out ahead is if the fighting remains sufficiently limited and localized that it's not really a war but a skirmish. Such a scenario is certainly possible. But they cannot win a war.

Now, it's also true that we (meaning both the US and South Korea) want more than just the North losing in a war. We want casualties to be small. And they very well might not be. They could be in the millions. But as I mentioned, if war breaks out, our casualties will primarily be at the beginning. Which means we won't have an incentive to stop short of victory once actual war breaks out..

I largely agree with you here, except can you speak for China's reaction to all these nukes going off close to their border.

A bad reaction is not entirely out of the question.

We are not Hitler, and North Korea isn't the USSR.

Yes I know that.
But the grand predictions of a swift and easy victory are certainly similar.
Only a fool ignores history.

 

[Skwinty]

Also, the bolded bit is a myth. Read up on it.

Polish cavalry consisted of eleven brigades, as emphasized by its military doctrine, equipped with anti tank rifles "UR" and light artillery such as the highly effective Bofors 37 mm antitank gun.

The myth = The Polish Army fought German tanks with horse-mounted cavalry wielding lances and swords

The myth originated from war correspondents reports of the Battle of Krojanty, where a Polish cavalry brigade was fired upon in ambush by hidden armored vehicles, after it had mounted a sabre-charge against German infantry.

The bolded part is the myth.

Read up on it.

http://www.militaryhistoryonline.com/wwii/articles/polishcavalry.aspx

 

[USEagle13]

Urban warfare is not desert warfare. And it's not flat either. Furthermore, any impediments to OUR movements are going to be even larger impediments to NK movement, since they won't have air superiority.

Yes I agree with both points and stand corrected. Thanks.

Well, since the plane has yet to make a test flight, at this point it would make me laugh. Give it a decade and maybe I'll care, but you're assuming that China would send their fighters in. That's not a given.

There could be a high possibility that it is not capable of flying at all and may be more of a "concept jet model" made solely for propaganda purposes.

I'm glad the USA caught the SOB (excuse my French) that was a traitor and gave away secrets for quick cash:
Judge sentences former B-2 stealth bomber engineer to 32 years for selling US secrets to China

Because of the way the new China stealth fighter looked I thought someone from Lockheed Martin did it. It appears it was someone from Northrop who was also an immigrant from India. It's hard enough keeping tabs on US civilian traitors but it does not surprise me at all that an immigrant from another country did this.

I mean in the end his only loyalty is money and wealth. Which is the main reason people come from other countries to the USA (besides the ones running from persecution)

You're right: they're second rate, not fourth rate.

The USA will always be 1st rate. No pilots in the world can compare to ours. NONE

Actually, there is. Their infrastructure is crap, air strikes would make short work of their road and rail networks, and the very terrain you claim will work against us also means that they'll be paralyzed once these networks are hit. They're also perpetually low on food and fuel. No army wins under those conditions.

Plus I doubt that their troops are as physically fit as the South Koreans or US forces. I was looking at some pics of N.Koreans and they all look like kid skeletons.

Why would they? They already have a promise from South Korea that no US troops would be stationed north of the DMZ if reunification ever happens, WE have no interest in basing more troops there, and if war ever happens, the number 1 concern of China is going to be to prevent a flood of refugees into China. If China ever comes to blows with the US, it's not going to be over North Korea, it'll be over Taiwan. Worst-case scenario for us in this regard is that China uses a war with North Korea as an opportunity to strike at Taiwan while we're engaged elsewhere. In which case, Taiwan might be screwed, but China isn't going to rescue North Korea. They aren't worth the trouble.

This seems like a more "realistic viewpoint." I did not know that S.Korea had promised that no US troops would be stationed north of the DMZ.

I had been working on getting my body into top physical condition and my "spirit man" into top spiritual condition ever since N.Korea had attacked on Nov.23rd because I figured the poo was gonna hit the fan and I wanted to be in top condition to serve my country if needed. I still don't fully trust the Kings of the East though. I only fully "trust" my country and God.

If we launch an unprovoked attack against North Korea, that might frighten the Chinese enough to consider stepping in. But if war starts as a response to something that the north does, why would China step in? Their client state is a perpetual headache. The war would be sufficiently costly for us as is. China comes out ahead of us if they don't spend a dime getting involved and let us fight and clean up the mess.

Economically and logically speaking that does seem more like the best way to handle it. From China's viewpoint of course. Let's just hope China is as "smart" as everyone says they are.

You have GOT to be kidding me. Russia has no reason to stick out their necks for North Korea.

But they would for China?

Those little islands aren't worth that kind of trouble.

It's the oil under them. Not the Islands themselves. Right?

And it would remain a buffer zone. South Korea has already promised no US troops stationed north of the DMZ. And the north is such a complete mess that South Korea would be struggling to clean up the mess for decades. In fact, if you really want to hobble South Korea, making them clean up North Korea is about the best thing you could do.

I never thought of it that way.

And we all know North Korean scientists are top-notch.

N.Korea has scientists?

Synthetic fuels are not a source of energy. They are a way of changing existing energy from one form into another, and always involve inefficiencies. North Korea has a general fuel shortage of pretty much every kind. The ability to turn one kind of fuel into another kind of fuel is of no use when you don't even have enough of the first kind of fuel.

You can't make synthetics out of grease, fat, or grains?

Indeed: the Germans had food.

Only in some cases.

That's rather the point: they're in Pakistan. Where we aren't.

And if you think that China is going to play the part of Pakistan, you're deluding yourself. Unlike Pakistan, China tries to exert tight control over their border with North Korea. They don't WANT people coming and going freely. If war happens, they'll keep that border closed, because they don't want North Korean refugees flooding China.

Nah. I never thought China cared too much about Pakistan. Pakistan is like that headache you can never fully get rid of (kind of like N.Korea when I really think about it)

It's horrible when a person gets turned into the space between the roof and the ceiling of a house.

LOL. I didn't catch it at first. Too funny.

Okay. So what? I said the South Koreans are well-trained and willing to fight. Just because they haven't been in a war doesn't mean they're unwilling to fight.

Oh no. I never said they are unwilling. I'm sure after recent events they want some serious payback. I know I would if I was them.

China is currently a competitor. They are not an ally or an enemy. They could potentially be either, depending on circumstances. And the idea of trading with a potential enemy is not moronic at all. Not only does trade increase wealth (which is a good thing on its own), it creates mutual dependencies. It will hurt us if China becomes an enemy, but for the very same reasons, it will hurt China too. We BOTH now have incentives due to trade to not become enemies. I'm having a hard time seeing why that's a categorically bad thing. Please, enlighten me.

I suppose it would be a more tense situation if we did not have any agreements. Then why would they need us or us need them? I have actually heard many other people make the exact same claim you just did.

100% wrong.

Ok awesome

My great uncle, who was an ROK Major in the Vietnam war would soundly disagree with you then give you a soju/kimchee breath tongue lashing for not employing the most basic of google-fu or as we call in Korea, 'tea-daum/google-do'.

Sorries!?

Alright man, first of all Korea is kinda my hood and all. Nowhere does it snow 10 feet. I believe the South and North combined are about the size of a couple of mid sized US States. Sure, the climate is variable but not to that degree. Granted, it gets freeking cold in the North (and South) but snow would not be a factor that would completely black tracked vehicle traffic.

I had some old timers tell me they had one winter storm one year that dumped over 10ft of snow on the ground and they couldn't do anything for like 2 weeks. That was were I got the 10ft of snow thing from.

This tank series was made when training operations had names like 'Red Bear' and 'Ivan Dawn' instead of 'Muhalla Holla'. Get it? These machines were made to handle the extreme cold of Siberia. In fact, in Iraq our biggest problem was the heat. There's no A/C at all (except for the NBC blower but I had TC's that wouldn't turn it on and it's little more than a hose of forced air) in any of the older vehicles like our Tanks. But you can bet your last dip there's heaters all over pointed right at everyone's crotch.

Damn Siberia!? That's one cold mofo up there.

All our battle drills are based off of a hypothetical war with a chemical and biological capable enemy regular. We've had to adapt for Iraq and Afghanistan. There's a reason I still see Chemical pukes staggering into my sick call at work every morning malingering about something. Because, at a time when the DOD wants the Army to downsize they're still training several battalions a cycle in the Chemical Corps. Chemical Biological Weapons? Too easy.

Barring any serious unforeseeable biological Kim Il-sung's Eternal Revenge or Super Juche Chemical Weapon. I give that a very low probability. This country is going bankrupt funding a Megalomaniac's whims and building a plaster facade of their Capitol city and keeping their massive rusty hulk of an Armed Force from completely falling apart.

You are grossly under estimating the fact that almost everything about the US Military is a holdover from the Cold War and we are adapting to the new fight very quickly. Is there an NBC system in an MRAP? Nope. But you can bet your last phone card minute there's a damn Air Conditioner.

That and if you knew anything about Koreans then you'd know they'll settle it the Korean way:





[qimg]http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e75/sukie33/zerg7attack.jpg[/qimg]

ZERG RUSH! GG!​

Linky.

This I believe, is further evidence that as long as everyone plays it cool, there needn't be conflict between the US and China. If China truly had hostile intentions, they wouldn't have let the US know they were snooping around. Instead, they wanted to tighten our collective sphincter a little and remind us that they are not to be taken lightly.

Ok; I fully understood all of that.

I have to say, reading the story made me kind of chuckle. Imagine the conversations going on amongst those involved. Though it was definitely ballsy on behalf of the Chinese, if they had been noticed I wonder how quickly this could have gotten ugly.

I didn't laugh tho bro. My sphincter got as water tight as a frogs once I had seen that article last year.

 

[NewtonTrino]

This thread is horrifying. I really hope North Korea can get defused before we or others get into a friggin war with them.

 

[WildCat]

Then China fires back when it realises how many of it people will die from fallout

Game over man...game over

Which is why you have to wonder how China thought allowing N. Korea to get nukes was in their best interest.

 

[Delvo]

Well, since the plane has yet to make a test flight, at this point it would make me laugh. Give it a decade and maybe I'll care

There could be a high possibility that it is not capable of flying at all and may be more of a "concept jet model" made solely for propaganda purposes.

The J-20 prototype has flown. There was a demonstration/test flight on January 11 within view of Defense Secretary Gates and President Hu during Gates's visit to China. There was some political reaction to that placement & timing, suspecting it was to send the USA a message or that Hu's lack of knowledge that it was going to happen might be a sign of the President's lack of control over the military forces.

At least, an incomplete version flew, anyway, with older stock engines instead of the new ones that are being developed for it and promised in production models. It didn't have thrust vectoring as is planned for production models later, either, and I think it also didn't have the new radar ready yet either. That puts it close to the same stage of developmental as Sukhoi's T-50 about a year ago when it also flew with another plane's stock engines and no thrust vectoring, which is less than the point that the YF-22 was at in 1990, when two prototypes were built and flown (including the new engines, thrust vectoring, and new radars from the start) to speed up development & testing and compare two different brand-new engines. F-22 deployment was slowed down by factors that might not affect Russian or Chinese plane deployment, though.

From what can be told so far, it seems certain that the J-20's stealth, like the T-50's, will be less than that of an F-22, but whether or not it's also less than that of an F-35 is still up in the air. Its top speed might be like that of F-22 and T-50 or even faster but that's in doubt too. In speed, as in stealth, some different aspects of its design seem to contradict each other. It's bigger than any of the others, presumably to let it carry more fuel and maybe more missiles, but that will make it less maneuverable and harder to accelerate than an F-22 or T-50. There is no doubt that its radar, whenever it's ready, won't be as advanced as American or even Russian ones are.

Because of the way the new China stealth fighter looked I thought someone from Lockheed Martin did it.

"Cyberespionage" during F-35 development is suspected.

You can't make synthetics out of grease, fat, or grains?

Not enough to run a war with, especially if you're already short on food anyway.

 

[seayakin]

It seems to me the only realistic way a war would start is initiated by North Korea. The US and/or South Korea aren't likely to start anything unless North Korea would take a specific action. What would that specific action be? Obviously not shelling a small island with a small military installation and some fishermen.

 

[seayakin]

Another questions comes to mind, since people have mentioned Russia and China. Under what conditions would they get involved?

I really can't imagine Russia being involved other than selling weapons, equipment and providing training and possibly all covertly.

 

[Skwinty]

It seems to me the only realistic way a war would start is initiated by North Korea.

Maybe not. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/23/north-korea-holy-war-warning

There has also been a hardening of positions in Seoul, where president Lee is belatedly trying to demonstrate his toughness. After being criticised for his restrained response to the two earlier incidents, Lee has fired his top military advisers and replaced them with hardliners, who favour an escalated display of self-defence.


North Korea's armed forces minister, Kim Yong-chun, also lifted the pitch of the sabre-rattling. "To counter the enemy's intentional drive to push the situation to the brink of war, our revolutionary forces are making preparations to begin a holy war at any moment necessary based on nuclear deterrent," North Korea's KCNA news agency quoted him telling a rally in Pyongyang.

 

[dudalb]

So now we come to the moral equvilency between the 2 Koreas. I knew that was coming...........
If NK does out and out attack SK, we just stand aside and let it happen?

 

[seayakin]

Maybe not. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/23/north-korea-holy-war-warningour revolutionary forces are making preparations to begin a holy war at any moment necessary based on nuclear deterrent," North Korea's KCNA news agency quoted him telling a rally in Pyongyang.

Funny how an atheistic communist country can wage holy war. More seriously, even though South Korea has taken a more aggressive stance recently, it seems they would not initiate war without some sort of provoking incident that involved an attack on the SK military or civilians.

 

[Laughingmonk]

I don't think anyone is acknowledging the PSYOP and Intelligence factors of this scenario.

We would be facing an alomst-starving and uneducated populace that would be particularly vulnerable to any lines of persuasion we would come up with.

The artillery pointed at populations is an issue. It ceases to be an issue when the person behind it refuses to fire.

It is also my opinion that they would be highly susceptible to military deception, due to their communication issues and top down leadership style.

 

[Nosi]

When I opened your link I saw Grenada being used as an example of war.
I did not read the page. My bad.

Perhaps if you had used a smilie of some description to indicate your parody, I would have viewed it differently.

When the invasion took place, it was not considered to be a parody, nor was it considered a war.

It was considered a flagrant transgression of international law.



The American armed forces played a huge role in the downfall of Hitler, so in some respect it is relevant.

My comments in this thread really have to do with the perception that any war undertaken by the West will be a cake walk.

History has shown this to be a false perception. If we ignore history, then it should not be a surprise when history repeats itself.

If a nation goes to war, then it is prudent to consider experience from past wars.

Lets for arguments sake say that the West goes to war with North Korea because NK attacks SK.

North Korea sees a hiding second to none on the cards because allied forces are assisting SK.

NK then drops a dirty nuclear bomb on the south and its allies. The bomb does not have to be delivered by means of an missile, just dropped from an aircraft.

What is the next step, world peace?

Cake walk , my donkey.

Hitler also thought that his blitzkrieg would be a cake walk.

I think you've described my idea of a cake walk war beautifully. I see ourselves in line for a biological biochemical 'frosting!' N Korea has an abundance of what it needs to create grief for this American superpower: A complete disregard for human rights or human convention and stomach for getting disgusting things done. For all our technical superiority and bad ass troops such as Quad4_72, most of us don't have the stomach for squishing puppies much less children's brains.

 

[Nosi]

The vast majority were killed by terrorists after Saddam got his beatdown.

Terrorists that were not in town when Saddam was there. Admittedly, Saddam stunk like a skunk, I don't dispute that. Later, after the fall, the place became a free for all, innocent dying like flies with out infostructure.

 

[dudalb]

Full scale war between the US and NK is not going to happen unless NK launches a full scale assault on SK. The danger is that when North Korea implodes, the leadership decide on a full scale invasion because the leadership has nothing left to lose.

 

[dudalb]

Funny how an atheistic communist country can wage holy war. More seriously, even though South Korea has taken a more aggressive stance recently, it seems they would not initiate war without some sort of provoking incident that involved an attack on the SK military or civilians.

Agreed. I find the "no real difference between North and South Korea" routine to be incredibly stupid.
As for Holy War, last time I looked the NK government was not exactly the most rational on earth.