North Korea fires artillery on the South

[DC]

How?

we only have one way, its a lousy way, but aslong we dont have a new idea, i think, sometimes there seem to be no way around a war.

 

[DC]

i see far more reason to start a war with NK than i saw one with Afghanistan or Iraq.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

North Korea, don't make me come over there...

If you do, just make sure you wear a condom.

 

[Doctor Evil]

we only have one way, its a lousy way, but aslong we dont have a new idea, i think, sometimes there seem to be no way around a war.

They have nukes and would probably use them.

 

[MRC_Hans]

But reunification? Not a chance, at least not under the current N. Korean leadership. "Reunification" implicitly means acceptance of one single government to rule over all of Korea. The N. Korean gov't certainly is never going to agree to give up power; and S. Koreans would never even consider subjecting themselves to N. Korean rule. Reunification, if it happens, will come about in one of two ways: 1) war 2) waiting another 50 years or so, and hoping for some sort of change in the N. Korean gov't that makes reunification practical.

The way I see it, the N.K. government is in a very precarious situation. The country is empoverished and they are balancing the population between being too scared to revolt, yet not so desperate that they'll revolt anyway.

China's interest in N.K. seems to be to have a buffer zone between themselves and South Korea, but with ever increasing business relations between them, this need is fading, and sooner or later, N.K. is just a liability.

I'm sure there are ways to topple the N.K. govt. if someone really wants to.

Hans

 

[MRC_Hans]

The problem with the reunification thing is that S. Koreans always think of reunification in terms of "N. Korea joins us, and our gov't takes over the North". The opposing possibility, that reunification involves the North taking over, never even seems to occur to them...despite the fact that any discussion of reunification will begin with the North's assumption that they're the ones who will be in charge.

Of course, any reunification would be South taking over. In the end, money speak loudest, and South Korea could buy North Korea and hardly loose a pace.

Hans

 

[MRC_Hans]

What exactly is North Korea's goal here? I know there is a popular belief amongst people here that Kim Jong-Il wants to go down in a blaze of glory, but everything I've seen from the Korea to the North is in order to ensure regime survival.

The Kims are just figureheads. There is a power elite behind, and I suspect their goal is simply to stay in power, no matter the cost.

Is this an attempt to isolate themselves and put off talks with their neighbours? 'We don't negotiate with North Korea' might be an attractive statement for them.

I think they have, over time, run out of options, other than isolation. Be just so nasty that nobody will associate with them, but not so nasty that anybody will take on the cost of removing them. The nuclear programme helps them to make the potential cost high and gives them a certain amount of leash.

Hans

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I'm not sure I've mentioned it here but my son now lives in Seoul.

My best man teaches at Korea University of Technology and Education, Cheonan. He's a bit nervous right now. I told him I get dibs on his Pokemons if the fertilizer hits the air circulation machine.

 

[DC]

They have nukes and would probably use them.

So we just surrender and let them do what ever they like to?

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Well, I suppose if one looks at it in a pragmatic sense, taking on North Korea would lead to a crushing loss of life, while at the moment few lives are lost.
I know that comes off as appeasement, but I'm not sure of the other options.

 

[Puppycow]

I hate that many spam on the news Baba Vangas predictions on this topic ''http://lighthead.wordpress.com/2008/09/30/baba-vanga-predictions-2010-5079/'' Like the new world war has began.

Those predictions are a little hard to take seriously when they include ones like these:

2164 – Animals turn half-human.

A lot of them are word salad:

4304 – Found a way to win any disease.

Congratulations sir! You've won scurvy!

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Let's toss some nukes in so it doesn't get boring.

 

[DC]

Well, I suppose if one looks at it in a pragmatic sense, taking on North Korea would lead to a crushing loss of life, while at the moment few lives are lost.
I know that comes off as appeasement, but I'm not sure of the other options.

more than the next 20 years of starvation?

since so many years i see far more reason to go in there than any other place on this planet, but seems i am pretty alone with that.

 

[NWO Sentryman]

This isn't going to end well is it?

 

[timhau]

we only have one way, its a lousy way, but aslong we dont have a new idea, i think, sometimes there seem to be no way around a war.

Oh, I'm sure that if the Americans get involved, once the dust has settled we'll eventually learn of several easy ways the war could have been avoided.

 

[a_unique_person]

What exactly is North Korea's goal here? I know there is a popular belief amongst people here that Kim Jong-Il wants to go down in a blaze of glory, but everything I've seen from the Korea to the North is in order to ensure regime survival.

Is this an attempt to isolate themselves and put off talks with their neighbours? 'We don't negotiate with North Korea' might be an attractive statement for them.

To terrify their own population, is my guess. I have heard reports that the NK is so dysfunctional, it does not effectively control large parts of it's own country. If you want to sneak over to China to flee, that's not too hard to do. China won't make you welcome, but it is possible. Military scenes like this would be used to raise patriotic ferver. I can't see it working myself, but it does terrify everyone else.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Oh, I'm sure that if the Americans get involved, once the dust has settled we'll eventually learn of several easy ways the war could have been avoided.

Ah, blame the Americans and THEN find out what happened. Much quicker that way.

 

[MRC_Hans]

more than the next 20 years of starvation?

since so many years i see far more reason to go in there than any other place on this planet, but seems i am pretty alone with that.

From a humanitarian POW, perhaps, but wars are not started on humanitarian grounds (that would also be absurd). The thing is that as long as NK is not doing much except stink, the world will be quite content with holding its nose.

Let's face it: Even if someone could go in there and take power with little military cost (which is extremely unlikely), the rebuilding job would cost a fortune.

Hans

 

[Doctor Evil]

So we just surrender and let them do what ever they like to?

Not necessarily. A response could be an attack of a specific government target. This carries risks, as the North is bound to respond. However, it is much better than an all out war, in which the North may try to destroy Seoul.

The bottom line is that there is not much we can do. This is why North Korea getting nukes was such a big deal.

 

[a_unique_person]

NK is in artillery range of Seoul. What they did today is a small scale demonstration of what they could do quite easily to a city of millions, irrespective of any nuclear capacity.