North Korea cancels truce

[applecorped]

North Korea


THE SEVEN COMMANDMENTS

1. Whatever goes upon two legs is an enemy.
2. Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend.
3. No animal shall wear clothes.
4. No animal shall sleep in a bed.
5. No animal shall drink alcohol.
6. No animal shall kill any other animal.
7. All animals are equal (but some are more equal than others).

- George Orwell

 

[gumboot]

To add some context, though, things aren't nearly as bad as they were in the mid-90's when there was widespread famine and millions of people likely starved to death. That was when there were likely real uprisings against the Kim regime and serious instability. If the country survived that, it would seem it would take conditions considerably worse to have any drastic change there.

True, good points. It's possible that a suicidal action could be the result of a doomed regime rather than a doomed country. The question would then be how blindly the foot soldiers would follow that regime to their deaths. Mass defection could be a possibility.

 

[Sir Robin Goodfellow]

Oh no! Argument by avatar! I'm devastated! What can I possibly do now??

Bird avatar wins every time.

 

[Sir Robin Goodfellow]

Wouldn't the United Nations be required to send in military aid to South Korea if Kim Jong Il finally goes completely bonkers and attacks? The United Kingdom, France, and so on, wouldn't they send troops?

Any chance that North Korean soldiers would attempt some kind of revolt against the government if war happens?

 

[gumboot]

Wouldn't the United Nations be required to send in military aid to South Korea if Kim Jong Il finally goes completely bonkers and attacks? The United Kingdom, France, and so on, wouldn't they send troops?

Any chance that North Korean soldiers would attempt some kind of revolt against the government if war happens?

No, the UN is not obliged to undertake any military activities at all. If NK attacked, SK could seek assistance from an international coalition under Article 51 (collective self defense) of the UN charter, until such time as the UNSC met and decided on a course of action.

I would expect something to happen similar to the Persian Gulf War - rather than initiate a UN force, the UNSC would instead give the coalition already formed under Article 51 a UNSC mandate to repel the invaders. This would probably result in further nations that had not already joined SK under Article 51 start to provide support. More importantly, it would prohibit any UN member state from assisting NK.

 

[Travis]

Wouldn't the United Nations be required to send in military aid to South Korea if Kim Jong Il finally goes completely bonkers and attacks? The United Kingdom, France, and so on, wouldn't they send troops?

Any chance that North Korean soldiers would attempt some kind of revolt against the government if war happens?

Wanting to send troops and the ability to actually send formations of any consequence is another. Sending massive amounts of military hardware to South Korea would be difficult if you didn't have the practice or the facilities to do it. The UK had a pretty hard time sending two armored brigades to Iraq. Trying to send multiple divisions to Korea would be an order of magnitude harder. It could be done but it would take time.

 

[Architect]

There have been frequent warnings in the UK that our troops are now severely stretched by overseas peacekeeping operations and that we don't have any real slack left.

 

[headscratcher4]

There seems to be a notion that South Korea would not be able to handle a first strike by the North. One should assume that their defense planning assumes that Soul gets flattened in the first couple of hours. The South's army is better equipped, better fed, has the most modern communications capability, has more in the way of oil and food reserves, as well as access to more support from the US, Japan, Australia, etc.

The North has more than a million people in their army. But, how much of that million are more than mere prison guards? How much oil do they have to fuel their Southern advance? How much ammo? A nuke thrown at the South, or at Japan, would reap nuclear retaliation. In addition, as soon as a Northern invasion begins, the US and South Korea would be targeting by air and missles every airbase and missle base in the North (and we know where they are). THe north, like Iraq, would be left with so/so mobile missles that down't have the throw weight or consistency and quality of their fixed systems.

The North can reap havock. THey can kill a million southerners. THey can not sustain the battle. That's their problem. China isn't going to sustain a pre-emptive attack and risk a wider war and the loss of their economic gains. THe Russians aren't going to get involved this time either. The North will be doing this alone. They are dangerous, but they have to win on day one or the lose. And, I don't think they can win on day one, especially if the US and the South are on warning.

This is a lot of talk about nothing....unless they are completely deluded (possible) and than they die.

 

[Thunder]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090530/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/as_gates_asia_security_summit

North Korea has a "dark" future.

 

[Darth Rotor]

DR, you are right about the positioning, but at least the cruise missile assets can be brought up where Kim cannot see them. However this is not true of his friends the ChiComs; They have two working spysats last I heard, and lots of patrol aircraft.

Yes, Ben, there is that, but I will caveat my head nod with the hard reality that the number of TLAMS required is rather substantial. (Hell, it was more than substantial big dollar war game I was in over a decade ago, and NK's tunnel.) Cruise missiles, conventional warhead, have a limit to what they can do. What then can do, however, does make me grin.

Not sure China would be willing to get into the shooting bit against NK, but I sure would hope it. Just think it's a low probability bet.

DR

 

[Sir Robin Goodfellow]

Japan has an impressive military, from what I've heard. Given that they're at risk of perhaps being attacked, would they send troops if North Korea heads south? Are they even allowed to, after that unpleasantness back in the thirties and forties? I can't imagine that North Korea would have a chance against Japan and South Korea.

 

[ARubberChickenWithAPulley]

Japan has an impressive military, from what I've heard. Given that they're at risk of perhaps being attacked, would they send troops if North Korea heads south? Are they even allowed to, after that unpleasantness back in the thirties and forties? I can't imagine that North Korea would have a chance against Japan and South Korea.

A thousand times no (and the unpleasantness with Japan and Korea extended well before the 30's and 40's).

I don't care how backed against the wall South Korea might be. They would never allow Japanese troops on their territory.

That said, they might, and probably would accept Japanese logistical or monetary support -- either directly, or via the U.S. Or Japanese naval support, outside of their waters, though it would be surprising if north Korea were able to venture too far away from shore, aside from some Special Forces craft.

 

[boloboffin]

You know what I would shower the country with?

IPhones. Blackberries. IPods. Nintendo DSi's. All with easy-to-follow applications for the technically inept. Devote scads of mobile broadband capability to the country. Make sure a video plays at the very beginning with a brief explanation of what the device is and how isolated the country really is.

There would be blood, but it would be Dear Leader's. And maybe they'd get over the embarassment when we hook them up to the power grid.

 

[timhau]

Japan has an impressive military, from what I've heard. Given that they're at risk of perhaps being attacked, would they send troops if North Korea heads south? Are they even allowed to, after that unpleasantness back in the thirties and forties? I can't imagine that North Korea would have a chance against Japan and South Korea.

The quickest way to unify Korea is to send Japanese troops to the peninsula.

 

[MG1962]

You know what I would shower the country with?

IPhones. Blackberries. IPods. Nintendo DSi's. All with easy-to-follow applications for the technically inept. Devote scads of mobile broadband capability to the country. Make sure a video plays at the very beginning with a brief explanation of what the device is and how isolated the country really is.

There would be blood, but it would be Dear Leader's. And maybe they'd get over the embarassment when we hook them up to the power grid.

A great idea till the batteries fail

 

[Darth Rotor]

You know what I would shower the country with?

IPhones. Blackberries. IPods. Nintendo DSi's. All with easy-to-follow applications for the technically inept. Devote scads of mobile broadband capability to the country. Make sure a video plays at the very beginning with a brief explanation of what the device is and how isolated the country really is.

There would be blood, but it would be Dear Leader's. And maybe they'd get over the embarassment when we hook them up to the power grid.

NOt much of an idea. The wireless networks to support your Iphone and Blackberry showers are not what you might assume them to be. You seem to take a few things for granted here.

As to the others, good plan, batteries remark considered, in that it will act as an opiate to the people: to busy trying to score a high game or listen to tunes that don't exist, to worry about starving or being cold in winter. By all means, help out the Dear Leader.

DR

 

[boloboffin]

It's not something that could be done tomorrow, granted. But the resources could be put together with all kinds of temporary cell phone towers, etc. The devices are not about entertainment but about connecting the populace to the world in a way that Dear Leader can't avoid. Set up phone banks in South Korea so that people in the North can call and talk to someone in Korean about how isolated they are.

As long as the batteries last for that call and for some censorship-free Internet surfing, that's all the North needs. A second shower of replaceable batteries with instructions on changing them even.

I know it's not going to happen. But the problem is connectivity.

 

[Travis]

I doubt very many of the people would even pick them up out of fear. I read a travel blog once about an American tourist in North Korea and one thing he found strange was how afraid everyone was to even say "hi" to him. Even way out in the middle of nowhere the villagers would try to ignore him and generally seemed very afraid someone might report them to the authorities if they talked to him. When you figure just about every family in the country has probably had someone taken off to a camp and tortured to death universal fear and obedience are expected.

 

[gumboot]

Cellphones are entirely useless unless you have cellphone towers. Does North Korea even have a 3G or GSM mobile network?

Or would we parachute in the cellphone towers as well, with little generators attached?

 

[boloboffin]

Well, screw it. Carpet bomb them and let's all go back to sleep.