No Fly zones over Libya?

[geni]

Actually, a drone could shoot down an aircraft, but given what most drones are armed with, it'd be a tricky shot.

First AIM-92 Stinger was fired from a UAV in a combat enviroment in 2002 (it missed but well it was a first attempt).

 

[geni]

Well the protestors may have already managed to shoot down one plane:

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFWEA675320110305

On the other hand with the kit they have I'd be quite impressed if they really have done it. Since a plane aparently has crashed it's possible the altunative would be some kind of malfunction.

I do wounder how long gaddafi can keep the planes in the air at this tempo if he's not getting any more spare parts.

 

[McHrozni]

Well the protestors may have already managed to shoot down one plane:

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFWEA675320110305

On the other hand with the kit they have I'd be quite impressed if they really have done it. Since a plane aparently has crashed it's possible the altunative would be some kind of malfunction.

CNN states they inspected the debris trail, and it runs over about half a mile. That's consistent with a plane being shot down, not crashing.

I do wounder how long gaddafi can keep the planes in the air at this tempo if he's not getting any more spare parts.

He can have a supply that will last him a year, easily. He doesn't run major air combat operations, only a single sortie here and there, so that probably won't be an issue. Pilot loyalty on the other hand ... has proven questionable to say the least.

McHrozni

 

[leftysergeant]

When I was stationed there, one of the powerplant mechanics told me that he was seeing about a 25% loss of normal operational life in jet engines due to sand.

Loss of personnel and aircraft may mean a far faster attrition rate for the birds he still has.

 

[geni]

He can have a supply that will last him a year, easily.

He can yes. With the amount of money he has had on hand he could have stockpiled decades of spares. The question is do we have any idea if he has.

Another issue is how much cash he has acess to at the moment. With the amount he has been handing out he has to be burning through it to at least some extent.

 

[McHrozni]

He can yes. With the amount of money he has had on hand he could have stockpiled decades of spares. The question is do we have any idea if he has.

I don't have any solid information, but there is no reason to believe he doesn't have enough spares to keep his air force going for at least a few months. Anything less would be a logistical nightmare in peacetime, when the air force still has to train and maintain their planes.

Another issue is how much cash he has acess to at the moment. With the amount he has been handing out he has to be burning through it to at least some extent.

I doubt this will be an issue for some time. If the war lasts longer than a few months it could come up, but not on the scale of days or weeks. Mercaneries aren't paid all in advance (for good reason), so he can just make them promises he can't keep for very long and it won't come up until much later. He can use the same model with other necesseties, scraping the barrel dry on all budgets, and it won't affect the efforts for a few days to weeks. If the war lasts longer than a few months, it could become an issue, if he doesn't have sufficient stockpiles of foreign exchange.

Remember, if he wins, he will be able to make good on his promises. This is pretty clear to anyone doing business with him, and this should be taken into account.

McHrozni

 

[FireGarden]

You're going to spot a flying plane with a satellite?

They need to be out in the open to take off. How many runways need to be watched?

And you're ignoring the issue of AA assets, which would be the first priority.

Only if you are putting manned aircraft in danger. How easy are drones to shoot down?

Airfields can be repaired very quickly, and drones can't shoot down aircraft. And helicopter gunships don't need airstrips at all.

Airfields can be hit again after they are repaired. And they can be watched with the aim of hitting the aircraft that use them.

And even if this isn't perfect, it would be something. It would help put pressure on Gaddafi.

The law places the blame squarely on those who put military assets in civilian areas, not on those who bomb them. Not that this would stop the handwringers from making war crime accusations against the wrong party.

Those who bomb such targets have to prove that the cost is worth it. They don't get carte blanche to hit any military asset whatsoever.

Lefty, how well organized do you think the resistance is?

Sadly, not very.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ning-but-Ive-seen-plenty-of-action-films.html

There was little evidence of formation of coordination on the frontline either, where men charged forward, firing wildly, heedless of the pleaded orders shouted by hapless commanders.

[...] "I've not had any training," said one fighter. "But I've seen plenty of action films."

 

[Darth Rotor]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ning-but-Ive-seen-plenty-of-action-films.html

Well, they are irregulars. Not that big a surprise that they have little to no discipline. Just makes Gadhaffi's job less difficult.

When I was stationed there, one of the powerplant mechanics told me that he was seeing about a 25% loss of normal operational life in jet engines due to sand.

Loss of personnel and aircraft may mean a far faster attrition rate for the birds he still has.

Yes. Depends on how much he flies them, and well developed his maintenance effort is. Sand erosion can be accounted for, or mitigated, but it can't be entirely avoided when it's part of the environment.

DR

 

[Darth Rotor]

First AIM-92 Stinger was fired from a UAV in a combat enviroment in 2002 (it missed but well it was a first attempt).

Geni, I suspect a Reaper could carry an AIM-9. While the engagement geometry would need to fit into a certain window, and weapons integration would take some testing and technical adaptation, it's a possible scenario. I think the USAF (I am a few years out of date on that sort of thing) would probably lobby to wait until a jet powered/fast UAV was built to consider hanging Sidewinders or other Air to Air weapons from it.

No idea what they are actually doing. Not sure if I can find out, or should.

 

[geni]

Geni, I suspect a Reaper could carry an AIM-9. While the engagement geometry would need to fit into a certain window, and weapons integration would take some testing and technical adaptation, it's a possible scenario.

It's been done. Iraq 2002.

Even so, military officials and analysts say the $2.5 million Predator's first dogfight in December heralds a new role.

Lilly said the Air Force was "baiting" the Iraqi air force by flying Predators over southern Iraq and fleeing when Iraqis scrambled their jets.

"Then they put Stinger missiles on a Predator. They took it up and the Predator didn't run away," he said.

The Predator and an Iraqi MiG 25 fired air-to-air missiles at each other. Lilly said the Stinger missed when its heat-seeker got diverted by the MiG's missile. The Iraqi missile downed the Predator.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/04/25/tech/main551126.shtml

 

[geni]

I doubt this will be an issue for some time. If the war lasts longer than a few months it could come up, but not on the scale of days or weeks. Mercaneries aren't paid all in advance (for good reason), so he can just make them promises he can't keep for very long and it won't come up until much later. He can use the same model with other necesseties, scraping the barrel dry on all budgets, and it won't affect the efforts for a few days to weeks. If the war lasts longer than a few months, it could become an issue, if he doesn't have sufficient stockpiles of foreign exchange.

Not just paying merceneries. He just payed the equiverlent of a months wages to every person in tripoli.

 

[McHrozni]

Not just paying merceneries. He just payed the equiverlent of a months wages to every person in tripoli.

I didn't know that, but local currency isn't as critical if you're willing to risk it's devaluation sometime soon. Foreign exchange may be a different matter, especially if his offshore assets are frozen. He also did his best to buy the loyalty of the capital for a few weeks now, so another such measure is probably unnecessary.

Given how much money he's splashing around I suspect he has a fair stockpile, but that's pure speculation

Another speculation is that he's getting desperate. Giving away loads of money to people of Tripoli will probably buy their apathy for a short while, but it could easily backfire as local prices go through the roof. Tripoli faced shortages before this measure, imagine what will happen now.

McHrozni

 

[Darth Rotor]

It's been done. Iraq 2002.

Geni, please read what I wrote.

Geni, I suspect a Reaper could carry an AIM-9.

Geni, the AIM-9 is a SIDEWINDER, not a Stinger.

Do you understand what I was getting at?

Predator isn't big enough to carry that payload, Sidewinder, on its weapons stations.

Reaper is.

Rearper wasn't around in 2002.

 

[WildCat]

Regardless, I don't think many US drones have AA capabilities.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Regardless, I don't think many US drones have AA capabilities.

Currently, probably not. That doesn't mean USAF (and possibly USN) are not working on it.

 

[WildCat]

Currently, probably not. That doesn't mean USAF (and possibly USN) are not working on it.

I see a future where fighter jets are replaced completely with drones, but we're probably 20-30 years away from that. The F-22 is probably the last of the line for fighter jets.

 

[McHrozni]

I see a future where fighter jets are replaced completely with drones, but we're probably 20-30 years away from that. The F-22 is probably the last of the line for fighter jets.

Rumsfeld said in 2005 (or so) that F-22 and F-32 will be the last piloted fighters in the US arsenal, their replacements will be unmanned. That's about the same as what you said.

McHrozni

 

[Peephole]

Donald Rumsfeld said a lot of things.

 

[geni]

Geni, the AIM-9 is a SIDEWINDER, not a Stinger.

Do you understand what I was getting at?

Ah I read it as a typo for AIM-92.

 

[leftysergeant]

Donald Rumsfeld said a lot of things.

Having heard some of those things he said, I hope he developes a neurological problem that will keep him from saying how he thinks this mess should be handled. We don't need any more idiots stirred up demanding action because a so-called "expert" said this is the way we should do it.