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Next Labour Leader

Most likely Labour Leader

  • Chuka Umunna

    Votes: 13 38.2%
  • Andy Burnham

    Votes: 8 23.5%
  • Yvette Cooper

    Votes: 5 14.7%
  • Dan Jarvis

    Votes: 4 11.8%
  • Tristram Hunt

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • Liz Kendall

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • David Miliband

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • Other

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • Keith Vaz

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    34
Len McLuskey is the Conservatives secret weapon.

He doesn't realise he is a dinosaur, and by holding the Labour party to ransom ("stay back here in pre-history with me or I'll attempt to veto your leader") he hands a delightful present to their opponents: either Labour are in the pocket of the Unions, or they are no longer representing working people. Thanks very much, says Conservative Central Office.
 
Len McLuskey is the Conservatives secret weapon.

He doesn't realise he is a dinosaur, and by holding the Labour party to ransom ("stay back here in pre-history with me or I'll attempt to veto your leader") he hands a delightful present to their opponents: either Labour are in the pocket of the Unions, or they are no longer representing working people. Thanks very much, says Conservative Central Office.


Yep. Times change and whatever the rights and wrongs of it, the country as a whole just scoff at unions pretending they can hold the LP, let alone the country, to ransom. Many members of Unite are in any case precisely the 'aspirant' people the LP are now saying they overlooked in the campaign. They have in any case be de-clawed. Old battles - at least for the moment.
 
Yep. Times change and whatever the rights and wrongs of it, the country as a whole just scoff at unions pretending they can hold the LP, let alone the country, to ransom. Many members of Unite are in any case precisely the 'aspirant' people the LP are now saying they overlooked in the campaign. They have in any case be de-clawed. Old battles - at least for the moment.
The perceived Left policy in the UK has little to do with unions as such. Here is how the International Business Times describes the SNP aspirations.
But it gets even worse than that for true believers in the centre-right consensus that has prevailed at Westminster since 1979. Unlike the Lib Dems, who have shown no interest in using their place in the current coalition to do anything more than moderate a few of the worst excesses of Toryism, the SNP would seek to use the balance of power in London to change the political weather entirely.

If the SNP gets its way on every front, austerity will end, the creeping privatisation of the National Health Service south of the border will be reversed, the minimum wage will be sharply increased, nuclear weapons will be relinquished, and Britain will join countries like Ireland in recognising that military adventures abroad can only take place with the explicit authorisation of the United Nations.
Whether justified or not, something like that is the perception of the SNP among left wing voters, and it seemed attractive to that sector of the population.
 
The perceived Left policy in the UK has little to do with unions as such. Here is how the International Business Times describes the SNP aspirations. Whether justified or not, something like that is the perception of the SNP among left wing voters, and it seemed attractive to that sector of the population.



I truly think that a) you're grossly overestimating the political nous and analytical ability of the majority of the electorate, b) you're underestimating the emotive power of nationalism, and c) you're underestimating the way in which irresponsible political parties can miraculously promise "jam tomorrow" to voters as a means to gain votes.

On (a), I doubt that if you asked a sample of 100 Scottish voters to differentiate the policies of the SNP and Labour on (Westminster-based) issues such as education, health and management of the economy, any more than 25 of them would be able to answer correctly (or even near-correctly). I suspect that a fair minority of Scottish voters don't even know what the difference in powers and responsibilities for Scotland is between Scottish MPs in Westminster (and the Westminster government/parliament) and MSPs in the Scottish Parliament and its government.

On (c), I found the following passage from that IBT article you quoted to be interesting and relevant:

If the SNP gets its way on every front, austerity will end, the creeping privatisation of the National Health Service south of the border will be reversed, the minimum wage will be sharply increased, nuclear weapons will be relinquished, and Britain will join countries like Ireland in recognising that military adventures abroad can only take place with the explicit authorisation of the United Nations.


With the exception of the last clause, the other bits are either a) not without serious implications or risks, or b) total cloud-cuckoo land stuff. I love how parties can say, with a straight face, things like "Under us, austerity will end!". It gives a significant proportion of voters the impression that abandoning austerity policies (not austerity per se, note....) is a cost-free alternative with no downside, where everyone can suddenly live in clover once again. Likewise the funding and organisation of the NHS, the policy on the minimum wage, and (to a lesser extent, admittedly) the policy on nuclear weapons.


Having seen some of the economics stuff the SNP has put out, and having seen what it's done (and not done) so far in its Holyrood administration, I strongly believe that the SNP will disastrously fail in its quasi-utopian approach to economic stewardship. Most of its economic policies are the sort that may appear superficially attractive on paper - especially to unreconstructed socialists - but in practice they're doomed to disastrous (and very costly) failure. One only need look at the socialist mess that the Welsh Assembly made of the Welsh NHS as a primer for all this: Welsh voters were seduced by the idea that all prescriptions would be free, and that social healthcare and outpatient services would be hugely ramped up. Sounds fantastic, doesn't it! Only problem was that in practice, Wales couldn't afford these levels of support and service, and as a result NHS Wales would be in administrative receivership by now if it were a commercial business.

I sincerely hope that the SNP - both within Westminster and the Scottish Parliament/Government - soon apply a good dose of realpolitik and pragmatism, and realise that idealism and practical reality are two very different things. Somehow I doubt it though. And that's why I also think there's a good deal of truth in the somewhat Machiavellian rumour that Cameron is being urged by his own party and Labour to give the SNP even more than it was asking for in Devo-max, as quickly as possible, on the premise of the old adage of giving someone enough rope to hang themselves.....
 
Yep. Times change and whatever the rights and wrongs of it, the country as a whole just scoff at unions pretending they can hold the LP, let alone the country, to ransom. Many members of Unite are in any case precisely the 'aspirant' people the LP are now saying they overlooked in the campaign. They have in any case be de-clawed. Old battles - at least for the moment.



The truth is very probably (though unfortunately) that this is another instance of people within the world of politics (and the political media) wrongly overestimating the importance of the finer details of party policy, and hugely underestimating the soft factor of the public appeal of the party leader (and to a lesser extent, his core shadow team).

Look: even though Ed Miliband did, under any reasonable political analysis, take the Labour party a little further to the left between 2010 and 2015, the reality is that the magnitude of this shift (i.e. not very much) almost certainly made very little material difference to the 2015 election outcome. Provided that the Labour Party stays within touching distance of the centre ground, it will tick that particular box automatically.

The (sad) reality is that among floating voters in marginal constituencies - who (like it or not) are the only people in the country who actually decide which party prevails - are demonstrably far more likely to be swayed by soft factors. There are some such soft factors over which the opposition (ie Labour) have little or no control - chiefly any sort of major mess-ups by the incumbent government or any of its central figures, and ones which will pass deep into the public psyche. And one shouldn't also underestimate the sheer impulse to change for change's sake among this group - somewhat under the "grass is always greener on the other side" principle.

But the one big soft factor over which the Labour Party (in this case) has ultimate control is the choice of leader, and the presentation of that leader and his/her top team. More and more evidence is coming in that Ed Miliband personally played a very significant factor in the outcome of this election. Swing voters (who, remember, are the only ones who really matter when it comes to "winning" or "losing" elections) simply didn't see him as someone whom they wanted to see leading the country at home and abroad. He came across as a socially-awkward geek, with a strange delivery style, a strange look, and a strange voice. Of course some of that was outside Miliband's control, and one can also of course argue that skill, intellect, debating skills and leadership should be far more important traits in a potential Prime Minister. But unfortunately in the real world, Ed Miliband came up against a brick wall of swing voters who didn't want to see him as their national and international leader and figurehead.


Now that Umunna's gone from the leadership contest (and I remain of the opinion that he dropped out because he was told he had little chance of getting sufficient support to win among the voters in the leadership election), I think that Burnham would be the wrong choice. He might appeal to the unions and to a large number of MPs and rank-and-file members, but he still has the overarching perception problem of being intimately associated with the last (05-10) Labour government. I think the crucial swing voters would prefer someone who can be presented as a genuinely fresh, new face. Remember that David Cameron came from nearly nowhere to be elected Conservative leader in 2005 - he'd only been elected as an MP four years earlier, had held a publicly-anonymous shadow government post from mid-2003, and was only promoted to the shadow cabinet (as Shadow Education Secretary) very shortly before the leadership election.

My money would have been on Umunna, and I think it's a shame for the Labour Party that he's withdrawn - whether for personal issues or because he knows he cannot win. But now that he's no longer there, I would say the candidate with the best chance of winning Labour the 2020 election is Liz Kendall, since she has the Cameron-esque "fresh face out of nowhere" appeal. But it does look more and more like Burnham is the big front-runner. I also suspect that Umunna might soon throw his support behind Burnham - I think he (Umunna) covets the Shadow Foreign Secretary job, and might even now be working on a deal to that effect with Burnham....
 
I sincerely hope that the SNP - both within Westminster and the Scottish Parliament/Government - soon apply a good dose of realpolitik and pragmatism, and realise that idealism and practical reality are two very different things. Somehow I doubt it though. And that's why I also think there's a good deal of truth in the somewhat Machiavellian rumour that Cameron is being urged by his own party and Labour to give the SNP even more than it was asking for in Devo-max, as quickly as possible, on the premise of the old adage of giving someone enough rope to hang themselves.....
I hope it is true, that Cameron intends to do just that; but "Vow" or no "Vow", I doubt it.
 
I suspect Cameron won't do that, but that he should. Too much of a risk "giving the SNP enough rope to hang themselves", the risk being that they don't (The SNP would likely moderate relative to its manifesto aims), with the eventual outcome being that Cameron gave voters a ringing endorsement for electing the SNP in the first place.
 
I suspect Cameron won't do that, but that he should. Too much of a risk "giving the SNP enough rope to hang themselves", the risk being that they don't (The SNP would likely moderate relative to its manifesto aims), with the eventual outcome being that Cameron gave voters a ringing endorsement for electing the SNP in the first place.
Perhaps. Who knows? I hope the Tories will also adopt "moderate" policies, now that they have a majority government, but unhappily I think they won't.
 

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