Next Hurricane to Hit Florida?

[Gord_in_Toronto]

As Milton is doing his work, who will be the next hurricane to clobber Florida? Nadine? Oscar? Patty? Rafael?

Forget Storm of the Century. How about Storm of the Week?

But don't worry. Some people have an answer:
Florida Gov. DeSantis signs bill that deletes climate change from state law

 

[Myriad]

Milton is going to be extensively studied by climatologists, because of how it kept defying early forecasts of how intense it would become. That suggests there's some factor in all the current models that doesn't scale correctly with warmer Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, or (what would be worse but less likely) some other unknown unaccounted for variable. "Rapid intensification," anomalous outlier behavior a few years ago, now seems to have become routine, at least in the Gulf. I suspect most mere category 1 hurricanes in the future will be ones that wouldn't have formed at all (perhaps at the edges of the "season" or outsize the normal zone) in the earlier regime.

The Florida bill is significant symbolically but I doubt it makes any practical difference. Lip service to climate change hasn't helped drive many actual climate-friendly decisions, and the economic factors that do drive such decisions can't be overridden by a U.S. state government.

 

[newyorkguy]

I have daughters in Florida so I worry a lot about this. The Gulf of Mexico is about four degrees hotter right now than is average for this time of year and that's making everything worse.

Milton exploded on October 7th, rapidly intensifying from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm in near-record time. That day, it passed over waters in the Gulf of Mexico that might have felt similar to a hot bath. Sea surface temperatures reached roughly 88 degrees Fahrenheit (31 degrees Celsius). That’s well above the temperature needed for a hurricane to develop, at least 79F (26C) The Verge article link

Gov. DeSantis continues to play politics with these issues -- he describes himself as "not a global warming person" (whatever that means) -- and he's doing it, ironically, in one of the states most vulnerable to climate change effects.

 

[Mojo]

Gov. DeSantis continues to play politics with these issues -- he describes himself as "not a global warming person" (whatever that means)

"The common clay of the new West"?

 

[Trausti]

The Gulf of Mexico is about four degrees hotter right now than is average for this time of year and that's making everything worse.

There's really nothing particular about the Gulf temperature. A hurricane occuring during hurricane season and striking a known hurricane zone is to be expected.

https://seatemperature.info/tampa-water-temperature.html

Water temperature in Tampa today is 83.3°F. Based on our historical data over a period of ten years, the warmest water in this day in the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa was recorded in 2009 and was 84.6°F, and the coldest was recorded in 2022 at 77°F. Sea water temperature in Tampa is expected to drop to 79°F in the next 10 days. October average water temperature in Tampa is 79.9°F, the minimum temperature is 72°F, and the maximum is 86.5°F.

 

[Silly Green Monkey]

That's strange, your quote specifies ten years, then lists a date fifteen years ago?

 

[Skeptical Greg]

That's strange, your quote specifies ten years, then lists a date fifteen years ago?

The range given was at most 11 years. Are the temps wrong according to data you have access to?

 

[novaphile]

erm...

in the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa was recorded in 2009

Was 2009 a typo?

'cause 2024 - 2009 = 15

i.e. more than 10.

 

[Orphia Nay]

As Milton is doing his work, who will be the next hurricane to clobber Florida? Nadine? Oscar? Patty? Rafael?

[...]

But don't worry. Some people have an answer:
Florida Gov. DeSantis signs bill that deletes climate change from state law

It will be named Hurricane Ron, just to hit the point home.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

erm...



Was 2009 a typo?

'cause 2024 - 2009 = 15

i.e. more than 10.

Were the temps given inaccurate?

 

[a_unique_person]

Milton is going to be extensively studied by climatologists, because of how it kept defying early forecasts of how intense it would become. That suggests there's some factor in all the current models that doesn't scale correctly with warmer Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, or (what would be worse but less likely) some other unknown unaccounted for variable. "Rapid intensification," anomalous outlier behavior a few years ago, now seems to have become routine, at least in the Gulf. I suspect most mere category 1 hurricanes in the future will be ones that wouldn't have formed at all (perhaps at the edges of the "season" or outsize the normal zone) in the earlier regime.

The Florida bill is significant symbolically but I doubt it makes any practical difference. Lip service to climate change hasn't helped drive many actual climate-friendly decisions, and the economic factors that do drive such decisions can't be overridden by a U.S. state government.

Churning up to Cat 5 in one day is mind blowing.

 

[a_unique_person]

I have daughters in Florida so I worry a lot about this. The Gulf of Mexico is about four degrees hotter right now than is average for this time of year and that's making everything worse.





Gov. DeSantis continues to play politics with these issues -- he describes himself as "not a global warming person" (whatever that means) -- and he's doing it, ironically, in one of the states most vulnerable to climate change effects.

That's democracy at work. Picking the guy who is most persuasive at telling you that you don't need to fear what you know you should fear.

 

[Myriad]

Were the temps given inaccurate?

I have no idea, but I do know that "near Tampa" is not where Helene or Milton formed and rapidly intensified, so perhaps you or Trausti should explain what relevance those particular temperatures have to this discussion.

 

[LiteBright]

There's really nothing particular about the Gulf temperature. A hurricane occuring during hurricane season and striking a known hurricane zone is to be expected.

https://seatemperature.info/tampa-water-temperature.html

Your assertion couldn't be farther from the truth and that website you linked is absolute nonsense. Aside from the fact that it seems to be a vacation planning tool rather than a science-based analysis, it is cherry-picking data, a 10 year average tells us nothing.

In fact ocean temps in the Atlantic hurricane zone have been steadily rising with 2023 and 2024 being the warmest years by far. In fact, within the past 10 years, only 2 (2014, 2018) have even been close to the 1991-2020 mean. All others have been well above.

Source...
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=atlhmdr

Its amazing what people will find when they don't want to face the truth.

 

[LiteBright]

Were the temps given inaccurate?

Not so much wrong as completely irrelevant to the discussion of hurricane formation.

From the site...

Sea water temperature presents you with information on current and historical data on temperatures of the oceans, seas, lakes and rivers of the most famous holiday resorts, beaches and coastal cities around the world. Additionally, to enable you to make the best decision about the best time to travel to your selected destination

They seem to be only referencing beach water temps rather than open ocean temps and as we know hurricanes don't form and evolve on the coast but in open ocean.

 

[Trausti]

Its amazing what people will find when they don't want to face the truth.

Are you not aware that hurricanes occur during hurricane season and strike areas in hurricane zones? When Milton made landfall it was a Cat 3. What makes this hurricane any different then all the other hurricanes? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. If we get hurricane formation in February, then that might be something.

 

[a_unique_person]

Are you not aware that hurricanes occur during hurricane season and strike areas in hurricane zones? When Milton made landfall it was a Cat 3. What makes this hurricane any different then all the other hurricanes? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. If we get hurricane formation in February, then that might be something.

It was a Cat 5 before cold, dry air from the north hit it. That was predicted. Florida dodged a bullet.

 

[Trausti]

It was a Cat 5 before cold, dry air from the north hit it. That was predicted. Florida dodged a bullet.

And that makes it extraordinary how?

 

[LiteBright]

Are you not aware that hurricanes occur during hurricane season and strike areas in hurricane zones? When Milton made landfall it was a Cat 3. What makes this hurricane any different then all the other hurricanes? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. If we get hurricane formation in February, then that might be something.

Moving the goalposts I see.

You made a specific, false claim that ocean surface temps in the area are not warmer than normal which was easily refuted with less than 5 minutes of objective search.

In fact, there is significant data that although the number of named storms has remained more or less stable over the decades, other markers like the size, pace of intensification and amount of rainfall from them has increased substantially. Statistical analysis also reveals that the season is lengthening. Research going back to 1971 (when satellite storm tracking enabled much more accurate data collection) shows the average hurricane season has increased from 130 days to 175 days. There have been named storms before the 'official' June 1 start of hurricane season in 7 of the past 8 years. There was even a named (albeit posthumously after further analysis) storm in January of 2023 for the first time.

So yes, climate change is affecting atlantic storms. There is really not a lot of serious debate among climatologists about that very basic fact.

Your deliberate attempts to misinform others based on your own biases is, quite frankly, disgraceful.

 

[Orphia Nay]

Oh yay, first we must invent the universe before Trausti understands that the US has had increased and intensified hurricanes.