Merged New telepathy test: which number did I write ?

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If you are so convinced that you are telepathic, why do you refuse to participate in a quality test of your abilities? Why do you need to use a set of numbers small enough to make it likely people will guess the right number by chance? Why do you insist on fudging the numbers afterwards.


An ability to read minds that is just .001% better than chance is still a paranormal ability that would turn science on it's head and qualify to win the MDC if properly demonstrated. You are claiming above to know about these things so what is the best testing strategy to use to demonstrate such an ability? Show your math so that we may verify your answer.
 
An ability to read minds that is just .001% better than chance is still a paranormal ability that would turn science on it's head and qualify to win the MDC if properly demonstrated. You are claiming above to know about these things so what is the best testing strategy to use to demonstrate such an ability? Show your math so that we may verify your answer.

Feel free to quote me saying any such thing.
 
Feel free to quote me saying any such thing.


Are you saying that you can't actually do the math so in fact you don't know what you are talking about when you are giving advice on how to conduct the test?
 
An ability to read minds that is just .001% better than chance is still a paranormal ability that would turn science on it's head and qualify to win the MDC if properly demonstrated. You are claiming above to know about these things so what is the best testing strategy to use to demonstrate such an ability? Show your math so that we may verify your answer.

If the last sentence is the be-all...the protocol for this ability...is this the protocol for the JREF MDC? If not, then the poster does not have to demonstrate that i would not think. If it IS the protocol, where can i find it written for the MDC? Not to be snippy about it or anything. Just curious. It just seems to me that it is inherent in all of us that if someone was truly telepathic, we`d pretty much know without math, or even odds. A poster at JREF had a sig quote i remember saying something to the effect that one in a million odds occur all the time. And it does, for almost every lottery. And we`d agree they are not telepathic to have known the numbers. But if i asked someone what i am staring at in my bedroom right now, and they said what it was, and then i asked again and they said what THAT was, and then i asked again and they said what that was....i dont even know if you could put odds on something like that when choices are not even given. Even in a lottery, your choices are limited to certain maximum numbers. With a lottery though there is one guess. It`s POSSIBLE to guess it right. Improbable, but possible. But in my bedroom right now i have some objects that nobody in existence has. If a person was given only one crack at guessing, like the lottery, and nailed it, on one of those objects and could be specific about certain details...just that one test would suffice as complete evidence of a telepathic line between me and the receiver. However....skeptical as we all are, we`d redo the test just to be sure. And maybe a 3rd time. Then die of a heart attack from being wooed, for real. How many objects are there on Earth? Trillions i`d imagine, that are not exactly alike. If 2 people on Earth had the same thing, exactly, odds would be in the trillions. But if you were the ONLY person that had something that looked an EXACT way, you could not even math, nor calculate the odds, because in theory there could be other worlds out there with no such object within THEIR trillions of objects,etc. So this would be MY test for telepathy...that which i stated in the beginning. No need for math or odds...because its beyond that...and beyond all comprehension also, i`d think. But then i suppose one could argue that there must be a way of testing for the lowest possible odds where it still would be undoubtedly telepathy as the cause, as opposed to lucky guessing. But CAN you prove that to everyone`s satisfaction in a limited test? If a person won the lottery, you`d have to insist he`d then also win the next one, right? So what would you think if he won the 2nd time? Extreeeeeeme luck? Or that he could like see the winning numbers thru a telepathy of sorts. I think people would want to see if he could do it a 3rd time. If he won again, then what? You finally throw in the towel and say he häs a power? Or do you? Ot are you skeptical of some cheating you cant figure out. Or still think its luck? And i also think a true skeptic will remain skeptical, when trying to prove such stuff as this. As opposed to say a Bigfoot actually being found, and captured, because it can be analyzed. Woo stuff like im talking about cant be analyzed, quantified, or anything. Its like arguing god. (Did you read all this? Sorry).
 
Are you saying that you can't actually do the math so in fact you don't know what you are talking about when you are giving advice on how to conduct the test?

No. He was asking you to quote him making the statement you attribute to him. Just like you were asked to quote people claiming to be a doctor. I note your ability to quote people making the arguments you claim of them has remained consistant.
 
Are you saying that you can't actually do the math so in fact you don't know what you are talking about when you are giving advice on how to conduct the test?

What would be the point? Telepathy would only fail again.
 
No. He was asking you to quote him making the statement you attribute to him. Just like you were asked to quote people claiming to be a doctor. I note your ability to quote people making the arguments you claim of them has remained consistant.

Troll alert! Again.
 
It's quite obvious that you don't even understand the question so I'll try a simplified version to help get you started.

Suppose that a gambler claims that they can beat the house odds playing roulette. Suppose also for simplicity that they are not using a "betting system" so each bet is a constant denomination. How many bets are required to satisfactorily demonstrate the claim? What outcome indicates success? For the number of bets specified, what is the probability that this same outcome could be achieved by chance alone? For this same numbers of bets, what is the probability that the claimant with the claimed ability will fail.

Any scientist, mathematition or true skeptic will recognize this as a simple math problem. It will be fun to watch the false skeptics squirm away.
 
It's quite obvious that you don't even understand the question so I'll try a simplified version to help get you started.

I'll try something simpler in the vain hope that you will understand it.Telepathy has failed every scientific test. When are you going to admit that none of us claimed to be doctors and gave a diagnosis? Stop squirming, man up and address the point. Your credibility rating here will be zero until you do.
 
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It's quite obvious that you don't even understand the question so I'll try a simplified version to help get you started.

Here is a simplified response:
Can you quote Sapient making the claim you attributed to him?

Hint: "No" is the most simple answer you could give.
 
Hint: "No" is the most simple answer you could give.

And the only honest answer. This thread is following the troll blueprint. The insults, the arrogance, the refusal to answer questions and admit to a mistake. Boring.
 
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Are you saying that you can't actually do the math so in fact you don't know what you are talking about when you are giving advice on how to conduct the test?

You can find out yourself what I am saying by actually reading what I post.
 
It's quite obvious that you don't even understand the question so I'll try a simplified version to help get you started.

Suppose that a gambler claims that they can beat the house odds playing roulette. Suppose also for simplicity that they are not using a "betting system" so each bet is a constant denomination. How many bets are required to satisfactorily demonstrate the claim? What outcome indicates success? For the number of bets specified, what is the probability that this same outcome could be achieved by chance alone? For this same numbers of bets, what is the probability that the claimant with the claimed ability will fail.

Any scientist, mathematition or true skeptic will recognize this as a simple math problem. It will be fun to watch the false skeptics squirm away.

A gambler saying he can beat the system, Is notably different from someone saying they hear voices telling them to kill themselves.

However to answer your question, There are two MDC tests, The first to verify a phenomenon is happening, The second rules out chance events. [ETA: correct this if I'm mistaken]

Thus far Michel has not in any sense done better then chance, He has cherry picked data and then claimed victory.
 
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I am curious to know what Dan O thinks is a "best testing strategy". How, precisely, does he determine that no other strategy is better? What does be mean by "best" and "strategy"?
 
An ability to read minds that is just .001% better than chance is still a paranormal ability that would turn science on it's head and qualify to win the MDC if properly demonstrated.

Already been tried and guess what? What do you mean by 'properly demonstrated'? That seems to assume that telepathy exists. Not really a scientific way to go about it. Stop pretending to be a scientist.
 
I am curious to know what Dan O thinks is a "best testing strategy". How, precisely, does he determine that no other strategy is better? What does be mean by "best" and "strategy"?

It's a mystery. He's always going on about that, in between accusing us of claiming to be doctors, but never actually makes suggestions about how telepathy should be tested. Any test that he could suggest has probably been done and shown that no telepathic ability was present.
 
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