Darwin'sGoat
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The odds are only 1 in 1000.
Darwin'sGoat
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Actually 1 in 500 because NY has two pick 3 lotteries.
Stereolab,
I’ll start out nice although that isn’t in my nature when confronted with ESP stuff.
If you have a 5-10 second advance of those thing you KNOW will be correct you have a simple self test method.
Just flip cards from a deck…
Quickly jot down when you KNOW what the next card will be.. 5-10 secs is plenty of time (its take about 2 secs). Ignore all those ones you don’t KNOW.
Please report back your results. If you have some ability Randi will test you under the same conditions and the $ 1m is YOURS !
When you find out you have a random chance you can ignore the “ability” and start to accept peoples advice here that your memory is not ALWAYS reliable and can “invent” and selectively remember certain things.
Easy huh ?
Tai Chi…
How many times did you have to be TOLD that there WAS a way to test the ability (as I have just shown above).
You seem to epitomise the “idiot” sort of believer that wants to desperately hang on to belief in spite of NO EVIDENCE.. your excuses of .. but it just isn’t testable are ridiculous…
I’ll start out nice although that isn’t in my nature when confronted with ESP stuff.
If you have a 5-10 second advance of those thing you KNOW will be correct you have a simple self test method.
Just flip cards from a deck…
Quickly jot down when you KNOW what the next card will be.. 5-10 secs is plenty of time (its take about 2 secs). Ignore all those ones you don’t KNOW.
Please report back your results. If you have some ability Randi will test you under the same conditions and the $ 1m is YOURS !
When you find out you have a random chance you can ignore the “ability” and start to accept peoples advice here that your memory is not ALWAYS reliable and can “invent” and selectively remember certain things.
Easy huh ?
Tai Chi…
How many times did you have to be TOLD that there WAS a way to test the ability (as I have just shown above).
You seem to epitomise the “idiot” sort of believer that wants to desperately hang on to belief in spite of NO EVIDENCE.. your excuses of .. but it just isn’t testable are ridiculous…
Darwin'sGoat
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Anyone else want to jump aboard and tell this poor guy to go for the million bucks?
He (and T'ai Chi I'm assuming) are not saying that there are not tests. They're asking how you expect him to test something he (thinks) happens once every five to ten years. He's claiming to be a witness to it, not to be able to do it on command.
/devil's advocate
Yes, I believe he's miss-remembering things. Yes, I think he's unwilling to accept that as an answer at this point. This, however, does not mean that every angry skeptic who glances at this thread should insult the guy and throw the 'Million Dollar Randi Challenge' in the his face.
He (and T'ai Chi I'm assuming) are not saying that there are not tests. They're asking how you expect him to test something he (thinks) happens once every five to ten years. He's claiming to be a witness to it, not to be able to do it on command.
/devil's advocate
Yes, I believe he's miss-remembering things. Yes, I think he's unwilling to accept that as an answer at this point. This, however, does not mean that every angry skeptic who glances at this thread should insult the guy and throw the 'Million Dollar Randi Challenge' in the his face.
Darwin,
I thought I was calmly telling the guy how to test himself.
I am surprised you are feeling in anyway benevolent toward him after he unjustly accused you of not being able to read (when I thought your post to him was eminently sensible).
I agree if the thing only happens rarely it is very difficult to test.. but isn’t that the rub ? To most of us this rings ALARM bells.. Not to Tai Chi though !
Doesn’t that immediately imply that the thing is purely a selective memory thing…
I understand how Stereo does not want accept that it may be his own memory playing tricks.. but people here are not trying to say he is bad or a liar.. just that this happens to EVERYONE.
I thought I was calmly telling the guy how to test himself.
I am surprised you are feeling in anyway benevolent toward him after he unjustly accused you of not being able to read (when I thought your post to him was eminently sensible).
I agree if the thing only happens rarely it is very difficult to test.. but isn’t that the rub ? To most of us this rings ALARM bells.. Not to Tai Chi though !
Doesn’t that immediately imply that the thing is purely a selective memory thing…
I understand how Stereo does not want accept that it may be his own memory playing tricks.. but people here are not trying to say he is bad or a liar.. just that this happens to EVERYONE.
Darwin'sGoat
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That was DangerousBeliefs, not me.
My problem is that so many people keep on voicing the suggestion: "Well do it again, smart guy." and in my opinion that option fits in here about as well as "Well it must be ESP."
My problem is that so many people keep on voicing the suggestion: "Well do it again, smart guy." and in my opinion that option fits in here about as well as "Well it must be ESP."
Darwin.. yeah it was DB sorry.
Bur Darwin .. it may sound rude.. but it is a completely relevant response.
Evidence for ESP = zero
Therefore it is completely NORMAL to treat the ESPer as something akin to a believer in the “tooth fairy”.
Now Stereo has not claimed any ESP.. so he hasn’t warranted that sort of treatment.
He has however discounted completely NORMAL explanations for his “ability” which tends to discredit him somewhat.
But you cannot lump a “do it again then” with an “ESP believer”.. one is sceptical the other is a woo woo !
Bur Darwin .. it may sound rude.. but it is a completely relevant response.
Evidence for ESP = zero
Therefore it is completely NORMAL to treat the ESPer as something akin to a believer in the “tooth fairy”.
Now Stereo has not claimed any ESP.. so he hasn’t warranted that sort of treatment.
He has however discounted completely NORMAL explanations for his “ability” which tends to discredit him somewhat.
But you cannot lump a “do it again then” with an “ESP believer”.. one is sceptical the other is a woo woo !
Darwin'sGoat
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Aussie Thinker said:
He came here to have a discussion not get bullied.
I'm lumping them together because neither answer solves the problem. Telling him to test something that he claims he can't do on command is as illogical as claiming that you can do something on command except when people want to test you.
Agreed. I'd say only part of the perceived bullying is actual bullying, but we do tend to polarize pretty darned fast around here.Darwin'sGoat said:
But at least 2 people ( I'm one of them) have addressed this. Admittedly, it is not a brief test, but frankly, if we are to give credence to the claim, it must be tested, and the way we have suggested is the way to do it. If the claim is real (which, of course, none of us can say one way or the other at this point), then the methodologies suggested here are reasonable ways of testing it. So it takes a while...it is absolutely not an untestable claim, as long as there is a qualitative difference to the KNOWN trials.
Not being able to summon this ability on command is inconvenient, but not at all a deal-breaker, as long as he can discriminate between KNOWN and guessed trials.
Darwin'sGoat
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Mercutio said:
Yes exactly.
Darwin,
You seemed to miss this part that I posted
Stereo DID claim to KNOW the times when his predictive capability would be correct. I devised a way to test it (Mercutio did raise the testing first and had it spot on).. just for himself.. I only raised the 1 Mill if he could convince himself he had an ability.
BTW Darwin I think sceptic have every right to scoff at the “untestable” “can’t do on command” claims. We have heard that for YEARS.. its implication is CAN’T DO AT ALL !
If the person with the ability thinks they have an ability but can never repeat it when they want (or even often enough for a test) then THEY should consider their own memory or recollection to be the problem and not bother us with it !
You seemed to miss this part that I posted
Stereo DID claim to KNOW the times when his predictive capability would be correct. I devised a way to test it (Mercutio did raise the testing first and had it spot on).. just for himself.. I only raised the 1 Mill if he could convince himself he had an ability.
BTW Darwin I think sceptic have every right to scoff at the “untestable” “can’t do on command” claims. We have heard that for YEARS.. its implication is CAN’T DO AT ALL !
If the person with the ability thinks they have an ability but can never repeat it when they want (or even often enough for a test) then THEY should consider their own memory or recollection to be the problem and not bother us with it !
plindboe
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Stereolab,
Mercutio made an excellent point earlier, showing the imperfection of the human memory, that I think is very important for you to realize. I recently KNEW something that turned out not to be not true at all. I clearly remembered giving an important book to my driving instructor. I remembered he asked for it and put it in his glove compartment, the last time we had been out driving. I simply KNEW it. I talked with him on the phone, and he denied having the book, and to this day I'm very happy that I didn't raise my voice and instead just hang up the phone. It turned out it was on the floor at my home under a magazine.
There's also another one where my mother and I had completely opposing recollections of a certain event. No need to go into details with this one too. But we both KNEW. Memory distorts facts. It's like that with every human on this planet.
Mercutio made an excellent point earlier, showing the imperfection of the human memory, that I think is very important for you to realize. I recently KNEW something that turned out not to be not true at all. I clearly remembered giving an important book to my driving instructor. I remembered he asked for it and put it in his glove compartment, the last time we had been out driving. I simply KNEW it. I talked with him on the phone, and he denied having the book, and to this day I'm very happy that I didn't raise my voice and instead just hang up the phone. It turned out it was on the floor at my home under a magazine.
There's also another one where my mother and I had completely opposing recollections of a certain event. No need to go into details with this one too. But we both KNEW. Memory distorts facts. It's like that with every human on this planet.
Darwin'sGoat
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Aussie Thinker said:
I did. I'm sorry.
I think this is where the confusion is creeping in. He claimed to know as they happened that they were correct. Not that he knows when he will have them.
Yes, you're right. I agree with you 100% that we should be skeptical. That does not mean that his calm disbelief should be met with venemous responses.
I don’t think anyone got too abrasive here anyway.
Summary of thread..
1. Stereo posted a calm query about possible precognition
2. Several posters posted very good calm responses with explanations for the possible precognition.
3. Stereo calmly rejected most of the suggestions on the basis of “he KNEW he wasn’t wrong”
4. It was pointed out by a few posters that the very memory of KNOWING could be what was wrong.
5. Tai Chi lobbed in with inanities about inability to prove ESP doesn’t discount it.
6. Stereo got a little peeved at what he perceived was posters telling him it was a problem with his memory
7. Some posters basically told Stereo he had his advice but did not really take any heed of it.
8. We started arguing amongst ourselves about how civilly we address queries of this nature.
In a nutshell I think all parties behaved quite well.
Summary of thread..
1. Stereo posted a calm query about possible precognition
2. Several posters posted very good calm responses with explanations for the possible precognition.
3. Stereo calmly rejected most of the suggestions on the basis of “he KNEW he wasn’t wrong”
4. It was pointed out by a few posters that the very memory of KNOWING could be what was wrong.
5. Tai Chi lobbed in with inanities about inability to prove ESP doesn’t discount it.
6. Stereo got a little peeved at what he perceived was posters telling him it was a problem with his memory
7. Some posters basically told Stereo he had his advice but did not really take any heed of it.
8. We started arguing amongst ourselves about how civilly we address queries of this nature.
In a nutshell I think all parties behaved quite well.
Aussie Thinker said:
5. should be 'T'ai Chi commented that peoples' suggestion of tests is odd at best as Stereolab did not claim to be able to predict or control his 'ESP' experiences.'
Your 3. is also partially false. Stereolab rejected some or all of the current "explanations" mainly because, I felt, they are too vague to be useful.
5a. This point was addressed twice. There is sufficient prediction time, given Stereolab's account, to experimentally examine the phenomenon.T'ai Chi said:
Stereolab rejected them because you felt they were vague? We may have another claim to test!
Mercutio said:
This point was then addressed twice inadequately (sp), as there isn't "sufficient prediction time" because Stereolab doesn't even know if or when these events will occur.
How, for example, would you attempt to analyze his experience at work?
Stereolab rejected them because you felt they were vague? We may have another claim to test!
I felt Stereolab rejected them because he considered them too vague to be useful.
Loki
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plindboe,
"ehBowen" from the Religion and Philosphy Forum has a nice little theory that such contradictory events actually both happened, but God and Satan are arguing over which one will be "the" reality. Just thought you might like to know that both you and your mother may actually have 100% accurate memories, but are simply Satan's play things!