Mueller Investigation pt5

[phiwum]

Mueller has already caused problems for Trump, even if the rest of the investigation exonerates him. That suffices to make him an opponent for Trump. And Trump attacks all his opponents. You're trying to analyze this as if Trump were a normal politician, but he isn't.

That is a soft defense. One might as well say that we shouldn't criticize Trump for, say, the National Emergency declaration because, while a normal president wouldn't try to circumvent Congress to build a pet project primarily to appeal to his base, Trump isn't normal.

 

[varwoche]

That is a soft defense. One might as well say that we shouldn't criticize Trump for, say, the National Emergency declaration because, while a normal president wouldn't try to circumvent Congress to build a pet project primarily to appeal to his base, Trump isn't normal.

I would have opted for risibly flaccid.

 

[Cavemonster]

Mueller has already caused problems for Trump, even if the rest of the investigation exonerates him. That suffices to make him an opponent for Trump. And Trump attacks all his opponents. You're trying to analyze this as if Trump were a normal politician, but he isn't.

I don't really see the problems the Mueller report pose for Trump. If the report exonerated him then it does him a massive favor. The indictments so far have not effected his polling or his agenda. They sent Cohen to jail, which, if you believe Trump, would be a massive favor as well since Cohen was so dishonest he was lying to Trump constantly.

"Trump is different" feels like a vague handwave.

 

[phiwum]

I would have opted for risibly flaccid.

I've actually rethought my response. Here's what I think Zig was saying and what I was misinterpreting.

Posts in this thread have suggested that Trump must think that Mueller has dirt on him, because otherwise he would not react so vehemently to the investigation. But Zig is saying that Trump reacts to everything as if it's an important, personal attack and so his behavior here is poor evidence that Trump fears Mueller will discover anything nefarious.

He has a point, to be honest. Trump's immature antics are hard to suss sometimes.

In any case, we're all better off waiting for the report rather than reading indirect evidence. Unless, of course, the report presented to the public is woefully lacking content, at which point indirect evidence is all we have.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

If you take Trump seriously, being exonerated by Mueller would be the worst thing - after all, he has assured us that Mueller is a partisan hack out to get him.

 

[phiwum]

If you take Trump seriously, being exonerated by Mueller would be the worst thing - after all, he has assured us that Mueller is a partisan hack out to get him.

Oh, please. He said the 2016 election was rigged, until it wasn't -- or at least not sufficiently (just enough to lose the popular vote). He said the unemployment figures were a fiction, but now they're not. And so on.

In fact, I think it's very difficult to take him seriously at all.

 

[Cavemonster]

I've actually rethought my response. Here's what I think Zig was saying and what I was misinterpreting.

Posts in this thread have suggested that Trump must think that Mueller has dirt on him, because otherwise he would not react so vehemently to the investigation. But Zig is saying that Trump reacts to everything as if it's an important, personal attack and so his behavior here is poor evidence that Trump fears Mueller will discover anything nefarious.

He has a point, to be honest. Trump's immature antics are hard to suss sometimes.

In any case, we're all better off waiting for the report rather than reading indirect evidence. Unless, of course, the report presented to the public is woefully lacking content, at which point indirect evidence is all we have.

Of course the final report will be the best evidence, but there's nothing wrong with speculation.

I think that while Trump DOES flail about a lot, of isn't so random as he wants it to look. The vast majority of his attacks actually do represent real interests. The press, Warren, immigrants. He has something to gain for all of those. He is not a wild unpredictable force, he's just a temperamental man. If he truly believes there would be nothing to hurt him in the report, it would be against his interests to mount such a direct and consistent campaign against Mueller.

Is there any other target Trump has rolled against so much with so much vitriol that didn't represent a clear interest?

 

[Ziggurat]

I don't really see the problems the Mueller report pose for Trump. If the report exonerated him then it does him a massive favor. The indictments so far have not effected his polling or his agenda. They sent Cohen to jail, which, if you believe Trump, would be a massive favor as well since Cohen was so dishonest he was lying to Trump constantly.

Losing Flynn early on was a problem for Trump. And the indictments might not have affected Trump's numbers, but it probably wounded his ego.

"Trump is different" feels like a vague handwave.

He is different. Is that really in any doubt? And it's less hand waving than the assertion that he wouldn't badmouth Mueller if he wasn't scared of what he might report.

 

[Ziggurat]

Is there any other target Trump has rolled against so much with so much vitriol that didn't represent a clear interest?

Rosie.

 

[Cavemonster]

Losing Flynn early on was a problem for Trump. And the indictments might not have affected Trump's numbers, but it probably wounded his ego.

If Flynn were the issue, one might have expected more rhetoric then than now. But a long time has passed and the rhetoric is increasing in frequency and tone. I don't think Flynn explains that well. I don't see how the indictments wound his ego. They aren't him. Cohen is a lying loser. Manafort was barely involved with the campaign. The others were coffee boys. What does that have to do with Trump?

He is different. Is that really in any doubt?

No, but he is not diffetent in a specific way that has strong explanatory power in this case.

And it's less hand waving than the assertion that he wouldn't badmouth Mueller if he wasn't scared of what he might report.

You'll need to explain that a bit more. In what way is that a hand wave?

 

[CapelDodger]

Losing Flynn early on was a problem for Trump. And the indictments might not have affected Trump's numbers, but it probably wounded his ego.

Trump's ego is invulnerable. How anyone can still not realise that escapes me.

He is different.

Trump is special, no question about that.

 

[Ziggurat]

You'll need to explain that a bit more. In what way is that a hand wave?

It's an argument from incredulity. You don't know why Trump would attack Mueller if Mueller didn't have dirt on Trump. But that could be nothing more than a failure of your imagination.

 

[Cavemonster]

It's an argument from incredulity. You don't know why Trump would attack Mueller if Mueller didn't have dirt on Trump. But that could be nothing more than a failure of your imagination.

If I were claiming absolute certainty, that might be an issue.

But in general predictive discourse "This pattern matches up well with X cause and we can't think of other causes that match up so well with all the evidence" is a fairly standard and solid basis to suspect X cause is the case.

If you really parse out the words and torture them, then EVERY conclusion that isn't logically inescapable could be cast as an argument from incredulity. Global warming predictions could be a failure to imagine that tiny alien robots are fudging all of our instruments!

The pattern of behavior fits well with a particular cause. It doesn't fit well with Trump being innocent of these charges. It is certainly possible that some unknown X factor exist which explains the apparent incongruity between this behavior and nothing to hide. But it is equally possible that ANY apparent cause is wrong. You're use of this fallacy would fallacize the majority of all speculation.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

It's an argument from incredulity. You don't know why Trump would attack Mueller if Mueller didn't have dirt on Trump. But that could be nothing more than a failure of your imagination.

Indeed. I can think of many reasons why Trump would attack the probe, even if he had no collusion with Russia. Just a few off the top of my head:

1) unrelated criminality will be uncovered by law enforcement scrutiny (see all his guys ending up in jail for non-russia related reasons)

2) the spectre of an long-running investigation is a nuisance for him, even if it will eventually show nothing.

3) paper thin ego. We already know that Trump is very sensitive about his marginal victory, such as in his attacks on the fact he lost the raw popular vote, or his poorly attended inauguration. Any implications that he didn't win on his own merits is an insult to his paper thin ego.

I would not be surprised if the investigation showed that there was no organized effort on Trump's end to coordinate with Russia, but rather just opportunistic use of the advantage given. Luckily for us, Trump has so many corruption sticks in the fire that there is still more than enough justification for his removal.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

It's hard to think of reason why Trump would obstruct the investigations so much if he had nothing to hide.

 

[Cavemonster]

Rosie.

A fair point. But don't believe he typed nearly so much about Rosie in a decade as he has about the Mueller investigation in the last couple months. And the majority of that was before he was an elected official and television personalities were among his primary concerns.

I'm not saying he can't be capricious at all. It is asking a certain suspension of disbelief to think that he is being random in this particular case.

 

[Cavemonster]

Indeed. I can think of many reasons why Trump would attack the probe, even if he had no collusion with Russia. Just a few off the top of my head:

1) unrelated criminality will be uncovered by law enforcement scrutiny (see all his guys ending up in jail for non-russia related reasons)

I count this within the realm of the investigation finding something. In fact I think even if he has conspired with Russia, that will be impossible to prove and that, like Nixon, the crimes committed in the coverup would get him.

But again, my speculation is that he knows the report will uncover his crimes. I can't say which particular crimes.

2) the spectre of an long-running investigation is a nuisance for him, even if it will eventually show nothing.

I can't see much of an effect on him. As previously discussed.

3) paper thin ego. We already know that Trump is very sensitive about his marginal victory, such as in his attacks on the fact he lost the raw popular vote, or his poorly attended inauguration. Any implications that he didn't win on his own merits is an insult to his paper thin ego.

That's a stretch. And it doesn't mesh well with his changing rhetoric on the probe as it unfolds. If he believed the probe would exhonerate him then it would be the best thing for his ego and he'd encourage it to be published everywhere as soon as possible.

I would not be surprised if the investigation showed that there was no organized effort on Trump's end to coordinate with Russia, but rather just opportunistic use of the advantage given. Luckily for us, Trump has so many corruption sticks in the fire that there is still more than enough justification for his removal.

Agreed.

 

[Ziggurat]

I'm not saying he can't be capricious at all. It is asking a certain suspension of disbelief to think that he is being random in this particular case.

I'm not saying it's random, I'm saying there are other likely explanations besides your proposed one.

For example, you mentioned that Mueller's investigation hasn't negatively impacted Trump's polling, and that this is a reason for him to not keep attacking Mueller. But you might have that causality backwards. His polling might be unmoved by Mueller in part because he keeps attacking Mueller.

 

[Cavemonster]

I'm not saying it's random, I'm saying there are other likely explanations besides your proposed one.

For example, you mentioned that Mueller's investigation hasn't negatively impacted Trump's polling, and that this is a reason for him to not keep attacking Mueller. But you might have that causality backwards. His polling might be unmoved by Mueller in part because he keeps attacking Mueller.

And my magic rock might be keeping the tigers away.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Because Trump is always vicious to all his opponents.

If he's done nothing wrong, then Mueller isn't his opponent.