Michigan Primary Predictions

[Puppycow]

Exit Polls
These give a rough idea of who voted for who.
Among self-described liberals, Romney barely edged out McCain, 34-32, so maybe there was a slight Kos effect there, but probably not enough to change the total by even a tenth of a percent. Among self-described Democrats, McCain won 41-33.

 

[Brainster]

Man, Giuliani has disappeared. Finishing behind Ron Paul. He's in Kucinich territory.

Believe it or not, he's the second biggest winner tonight. Why? Because three winners in three contests (Wyoming doesn't count) seems to validate his plan of sitting out the early states.

 

[Puppycow]

Believe it or not, he's the second biggest winner tonight. Why? Because three winners in three contests (Wyoming doesn't count) seems to validate his plan of sitting out the early states.

Maybe, but I think he's probably a dead duck.

He's been falling like a rock in the National polls. He'll need a big bounce from Florida, but it seems like the legitimacy of Florida is a little tainted having had its delegates halved, and its only 2 days before Super Tuesday. Maybe that's good, but he absolutely has to win convincingly to get a big bounce heading into Super Tuesday. And he'll need an assist from the press, I think.

Right now, 4 candidates seem to be bunched up together in Florida.
And won't those geezers want to support the old warhorse McCain?

 

[Tricky]

THAT'S why the Obama win will be such a shocker!
OIC... well then...

Actually, Obama DID win in Michigan, according to this analyst.

The Michigan primary vote was essentially meaningless: the national party stripped the state of its delegates because it held its contest too early in the election season, and Clinton was the only major Democratic contender whose name appeared on the ballot.

Even so, roughly 70 percent of Michigan’s African-American voters — a group that makes up a quarter of Michigan’s Democratic electorate — did not cast their votes for Clinton, choosing the “uncommitted” option instead. Yet these voters weren’t uncommitted at all: in fact, according to CNN exit polls, they overwhelmingly favored Barack Obama, whose name did not appear on the ballot.

Had Obama’s name been on the Michigan ballot, CNN exit polls show that he would have won an overwhelming 73 percent of the African-American vote, in contrast to 22 percent who say they would have voted for Clinton under those circumstances.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Actually, Obama DID win in Michigan, according to this analyst.

Even so, roughly 70 percent of Michigan’s African-American voters — a group that makes up a quarter of Michigan’s Democratic electorate — did not cast their votes for Clinton, choosing the “uncommitted” option instead. Yet these voters weren’t uncommitted at all: in fact, according to CNN exit polls, they overwhelmingly favored Barack Obama, whose name did not appear on the ballot.

The Dem party puzzles me, but maybe they don't, stripping all delegates from a state with a lot of black voters.

Hmmm, an anti Obama conspiracy within the Dem party? Dare we begin a discussion of this in the CT forum?

DR