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Michigan Primary Predictions

rtalman

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Joined
Feb 9, 2007
Messages
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My predictions for the 1/15/08 Michigan Primary

R
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Thompson

D
Obama (in a shocker!)
Clinton
Edwards

Anyone else care to guess?
 
Only Hillary is on the ballot in Michigan for the Dems, and no delegates are at stake.
 
People have the option of voting Uncommitted, and I do suspect that Uncommitted might do reasonably well, and if that happens it would probably be looked at as a symbolic victory for Obama.
 
The lack of a real race on the Democrat's side and the fact that only two candidates are really contesting Michigan for the GOP is why I didn't bother creating a contest. I will put one up for South Carolina though.
 
OK. So let's guess how (late edit) Mitt and McCain will do in Michigan.

I say Mitt wins by 4% over McCain, who comes in a strong second.

I say (unfortunately) Hillary whips Obama's ass in SC. Just a sense that Obama will get a backlash based on the color of his skin from African Americans, even though he is both. :(
 
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steverino said:
OK. So let's guess who Mitt and McCain will do in Michigan.

I say Mitt wins by 4% over McCain, who comes in a strong second.
Click to expand...

My guess is McCain wins fairly easily. There have been a couple of good polls for Romney and the wildcard is that several major liberal bloggers have been pushing a vote for Mitt to throw a monkey wrench into the GOP primary. But these efforts usually backfire.
 
Brainster said:
My guess is McCain wins fairly easily. There have been a couple of good polls for Romney and the wildcard is that several major liberal bloggers have been pushing a vote for Mitt to throw a monkey wrench into the GOP primary. But these efforts usually backfire.
Click to expand...

If I was a partisan Democrat, I'd push hard for Romney, too, hoping for a democratic landslide in Nov. I don't know who's going to win. The polls seem to be a wash. Intrade gives a slight edge to McCain, but then, it had Obama at 95% to win New Hampshire and was dead wrong there, so I've lost some faith in the wisdom of crowds. So it could go either way. I'll guess Romney but won't be surprised to be wrong.

ETA:
matchups.png

openmind.png


The second one is especially damning for Romney. 62% would never vote for him! I wonder how many rank-and-file republicans are aware of this?
 
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I would think McCain would be the upset win, since it is Romney's home state, and his Dad was governor there.
 
Dems:
Uncommitted (If both Edwards and Obama supporters vote this, like they've been advised to, it would blow Hilary out of the water)
Hillary

Reps:
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Huckabee behind him by less than 5%



After this week's primaries, if Romney doesn't win, he drops. Ron Paul, however, will stupidly stay until the last state.
 
With 64% of precincts reporting and the networks having called the winners an hour ago I'm just going to list what's going to probably be the final tally:

1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee
4. Paul

1. Clinton
2. Uncommitted
3. Kucinich
4. Dodd
 
6% for Ron Paul...that is within 1-2% of the number of 9/11 truth MIHOPers nationally (4.6%)....hmmm...conspiracy I wonder....lol

TAM:)
 
RIP, Conservativism

Ron Paul is the fourth best candidate on the Republican side in Michigan. Truly, the conservative movement is dead.
 
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