[Merged]Rape Plummets as Porn Proliferates

[Puppycow]

Are there any figures about the reporting of sex crimes? Could it be reporting that has dropped, because of some of the high profile cases, such as the Duke case?

The Chapman piece says this:

Nor can the decline be dismissed as the result of underreporting. Many sexual assaults do go unreported, but there is no reason to think there is less reporting today than in the past. In fact, given everything that has been done to educate people about the problem and to prosecute offenders, victims are probably more willing to come forward than they used to be.

 

[Puppycow]

Steve Chapman emailed me the source for his figures:

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cv05.pdf

Table 3 on page 5.

Here is the Kendall study

 

[Corsair 115]

My first question would be to ask how porn is being defined. Is a photo of a naked woman porn? Or does there have to be something more sexually explict? If there are degrees of porn, then how do those different degrees affect things?

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

My first question would be to ask how porn is being defined. Is a photo of a naked woman porn? Or does there have to be something more sexually explict? If there are degrees of porn, then how do those different degrees affect things?

Wanda and Brett?

< Gord runs and hides! >

 

[workout_girl]

This is an issue that has been close to my heart for years. I am deeply concerned that violent porn may cause violence against women. Because of this, I have taken it upon myself to independently and thoroughly examine as many porn sites as I can find, to ensure that they are not encouraging violence against women.

It's a tough job, but I am willing to do it...... for humanity.

It does make me wonder what percentage of guys get off on violent porn!?

 

[BPSCG]

It does make me wonder what percentage of guys get off on violent porn!?

Even if it were some shockingly high number, what would that prove? I enjoy action flicks. Saw Die Hard II - With a Vengeance again the other night and enjoyed it. Oddly enough, it didn't make me want to go out and start machine-gunning people. Saw The Princess Bride a few weeks before that, and I was able to fight off the urge to start running people through with a rapier. And I saw The Rocky Horror Picture Show a few months ago and... well, let's not talk about that.

 

[tkingdoll]

Ian - do you mean in the UK numbers of actual rapes reported have gone up, or the percentage of rapes being committed and now reported? If the latter, how is that figure arrived at?

But even if rape reporting has gone up, but I believe that prosecutions and guilty verdicts are very, very low. 5.7% of cases result in a conviction. It's unlikely that only 5.7% are actually guilty, of course.

This could all be Cameron spin but this article has some stats:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7090065.stm

Studies have shown that as many as one in two young men believe there are some circumstances when it's okay to force a woman to have sex.

The Tory leader said some statistics suggested one in 20 women had been raped, yet three-quarters of them never report the crime.

the number of rape crisis support centres had fallen from 68 in 1984 to 45, and funding decisions on those that remained were short-term and being made mid-way through the financial year.

 

[Ian Osborne]

I mean reports have gone up. I'd like to see where Cameron got his figures from, too. That speech of his came across as an exercise in headline-grabbing rather than conviction politics.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

It does make me wonder what percentage of guys get off on violent porn!?

Or for that matter what percentage of women.

 

[tkingdoll]

I mean reports have gone up. I'd like to see where Cameron got his figures from, too. That speech of his came across as an exercise in headline-grabbing rather than conviction politics.

I don't disagree, it's a vote winner alright. Also, notice the telling use of the vague "some studies", which usually means "a crappy survey with 20 respondents that contradicts all the robust data".

OK, so if reports have gone up, is that an indication that the amounts of rapes has gone up?

Mind you, even if it was, porn wouldn't be the first thing I'd point the finger at. The unlikelihood of getting tried or convicted would be the first. In the UK, it does seem very clear that you are likely to get away with rape.

 

[Ian Osborne]

Mind you, even if it was, porn wouldn't be the first thing I'd point the finger at. The unlikelihood of getting tried or convicted would be the first. In the UK, it does seem very clear that you are likely to get away with rape.

Quite probably, but I was listening to a radio programme earlier tonight, in which it was argued that the conviction rates for cases that actually come to court is more like 50%. An awful lot of complaints are dropped at an early stage. For what reason is another thread...

 

[EeneyMinnieMoe]

This simply doesn't ring true to me. It seems too much like a post hoc ergo propter hoc - assuming the proliferation of porn and the decrease in rape are linked because both happened to have occured at the same time.

It's much more significant to me that all violent crime has fallen at the same time that rape has decreased.

So many factors have to be taken into account when talking about rape that porn shouldn't even be the 25th thing linked to and compared and contrasted against it.

 

[Puppycow]

This simply doesn't ring true to me. It seems too much like a post hoc ergo propter hoc - assuming the proliferation of porn and the decrease in rape are linked because both happened to have occured at the same time.

It's much more significant to me that all violent crime has fallen at the same time that rape has decreased.

So many factors have to be taken into account when talking about rape that porn shouldn't even be the 25th thing linked to and compared and contrasted against it.

So you are arguing for no link (or a negligible link) between rape and porn, right? I think that's consistent with my OP. I was just trying to suggest that if there is any link at all, the evidence seems to point in the other direction (which is not the same as claiming that there is a causal link).

Anyway, I think you are probably right. There is only a negligible link if any, and other factors overwhelm it if it exists at all.

In Freakonomics, Steve Levitt argued that Roe v. Wade accounted for the much of the overall drop in crime in the 90s. But that is another issue.

 

[EeneyMinnieMoe]

So you are arguing for no link (or a negligible link) between rape and porn, right? I think that's consistent with my OP. I was just trying to suggest that if there is any link at all, the evidence seems to point in the other direction (which is not the same as claiming that there is a causal link).

Anyway, I think you are probably right. There is only a negligible link if any, and other factors overwhelm it if it exists at all.

In Freakonomics, Steve Levitt argued that Roe v. Wade accounted for the much of the overall drop in crime in the 90s. But that is another issue.

Ok, gotcha.

Exactly. I don't think pornography would ever lead to rape- but I don't think the two have any negligable link at all, either positive or negative and all the other factors inthe equation would overwhelm it.

 

[Puppycow]

I've been looking into the reports to try to figure out why there is a difference between the FBI data and the National Crime Victimization Survey. I think I've figured out wherein the difference lies.

The FBI data is data of reported crimes, while the National Crime Victimization Survey says:

Victimization rates are based on data
collected during the calendar year. In
2005, about 77,200 households and
134,000 individuals age 12 or older
were interviewed for the NCVS. The
response rate was 90.7% of eligible
households and 84.3% of eligible
individuals.

IOW, the latter includes the data on unreported crimes as well as reported crimes.

Therefore, the former reflects the fact that the rate of rape decreased while the rate of reporting of rape increased. That is why the actual rate of decrease is more dramatic (about 70%) than the decrease in reports of rape (about 22%). The increase in the rate of reporting was also measured and it appears in Figure 8 on page 11.

All of which means that the claim in the article seems to be valid, or at least based on a robust reliable source.

 

[Southwind17]

Instead of speculating over the validity of indirect measurements with an assumed causal link and correlation, not to mention the fallibility and unreliability of the underlying data, why not simply interview a cross-section of rapists and seek out their motives and, more importantly, prompts. That might sound simple and fundamentally flawed (in some way), but if you cannot do that, then how can you possibly hope that indirect measures with all their fundamental weaknesses, as described above, can be helpful, as the two methods of measurement are inextricably linked, with the indirect measure, by definition, being far less reliable.

Incidentally, I should not be surprised at all to learn that certain 'styles' of pornography have indeed led directly to, or at least contributed directly to, some instances of rape, but I suspect the incidence is low in comparison to all instances of rape, even assuming a 'more violent' definition of rape.

 

[rjh01]

Instead of speculating over the validity of indirect measurements with an assumed causal link and correlation, not to mention the fallibility and unreliability of the underlying data, why not simply interview a cross-section of rapists and seek out their motives and, more importantly, prompts. That might sound simple and fundamentally flawed (in some way), but if you cannot do that, then how can you possibly hope that indirect measures with all their fundamental weaknesses, as described above, can be helpful, as the two methods of measurement are inextricably linked, with the indirect measure, by definition, being far less reliable.

Incidentally, I should not be surprised at all to learn that certain 'styles' of pornography have indeed led directly to, or at least contributed directly to, some instances of rape, but I suspect the incidence is low in comparison to all instances of rape, even assuming a 'more violent' definition of rape.

Imagine you have been convicted of a serious crime. Someone suggests that you can blame something else, do you take it? Many people would. Hence interviewing rapists would only result in such things as porn being blamed, or being raped as a kid or some such excuse. Anything except to accept responsibility for their own choices.

A lot of porn and violent movies are out there. Why are we all not rapists or killers? Because the two things are not directly related.

 

[Puppycow]

Imagine you have been convicted of a serious crime. Someone suggests that you can blame something else, do you take it? Many people would. Hence interviewing rapists would only result in such things as porn being blamed, or being raped as a kid or some such excuse. Anything except to accept responsibility for their own choices.

A lot of porn and violent movies are out there. Why are we all not rapists or killers? Because the two things are not directly related.

Excellent point. Rapists will give the most self-serving, self-excusing explanation. "The devil made me do it." "Demon rum made me do it." "Porn made me do it." etc. This is why statistical tools are useful.

 

[Southwind17]

Excellent point. Rapists will give the most self-serving, self-excusing explanation. "The devil made me do it." "Demon rum made me do it." "Porn made me do it." etc. This is why statistical tools are useful.

Yeah, this thread's really getting to the bottom of it isn't it!

 

[tkingdoll]

Erm...where is my last post from this thread? It was there last night and now this thread is merged with another and it's gone. Anyone else lost a post?