[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

[dafydd]

Unbelievable! Jabba posts to this thread, and yet neglects to actually post the material which he should have put in the opening post (which was made nearly 24 hours ago).

Jabba, do you actually have any 'proof' of immortality, or was your OP just an exercise in yanking our collective chains?

It's an exercise in attention seeking, and it's working! Aren't we kind?

 

[Craig B]

Glacial movement is measurable.

The Mesolithic Alpine Ice Man's frozen body moved faster than Jabba's brain does when he's meditating on his contributions to his own threads!

 

[TimCallahan]

Who wants to bet that Jabba, when all is said and done, won't ever produce his Bayesian "proof"?

 

[dafydd]

Who wants to bet that Jabba, when all is said and done, won't ever produce his Bayesian "proof"?

Wouldn't he have to be a statistician to do that?

 

[Agatha]

It's an exercise in attention seeking, and it's working! Aren't we kind?

I am >.< this close to putting him on ignore and getting my kicks from repeatedly banging my head on a brick wall instead; I think I'll find it less painful than waiting for this promised proof.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

C'mon, three more hours and I win the sweepstakes...

Mind you, I'm the only person in the sweepstakes, so I'll probably win anyway.

 

[carlitos]

A certified chain yanker, perhaps.

 

[Acleron]

Waiting for the excuses.

a) Not enough time.
b) Just have to look up my references.
c) I have already answered this.
d) I'm old
e) It is not necessary to show the proof as it is self evident or at least it would be to a jury of my peers who know as little as myself.

But perhaps I do Jabba an injustice, who knows, he may produce an excuse we haven't seen before.

 

[HansMustermann]

Wouldn't he have to be a statistician to do that?

Not really. You don't have to be a mathematician to apply Pythagoras either. Bayes isn't that complicated a formula, once you understand it, so you don't really need some advanced degree to apply it.

Figuring out the data to apply it on, if he wants to prove immortality, now that's another story.

 

[tsig]

The Mesolithic Alpine Ice Man's frozen body moved faster than Jabba's brain does when he's meditating on his contributions to his own threads!

Maybe he's trying to demonstrate eternity with his threads.

 

[Humots]

Humots,

- Thanks for that last question. The answer is easy, and is probably worth some merit. I started a Doctorate in Educational Psychology at NYU in 1969.
-The course has two areas of study: Child Development and Research Methods. We (Lauren (my wife) and I) couldn't afford to live in the "City" itself -- living instead in Jamaica Queens, from where I'd take the subway to class everyday. Being a country boy at heart , I got sick of the long, often rush hour, rides to and from Greenwich Village -- and having connections upstate, transferred to SUNY at Albany. Probably a bad idea.
- I finished all my course work -- and then some -- but flunked the essay portion of our comprehensives. I did fine on the two multiple choice tests -- getting the best score in our group (8 Doctoral students) in Research Methods. I could have taken the test again, but we had a three year old at home, and little money, and I had to drop out.
- In our Doctoral studies, we had to choose a "language" in which to specialize. The appropriate "languages" for our course were "Computers" and "Statistics." I chose Statistics, and ultimately received an actual certificate stating that I was, indeed, proficient in that field.
- Since that time, when I think warranted by a discussion, I tend to point out that I am actually a certified Statistician...
- I can't remember all of the different classes involved (and it would take me awhile to find my transcripts), but probably the two most advanced were Factor Analysis and Bayesian Statistics.

- So, th-th that's my story, and I'm s-s-s-stickin to it!

--- Jabba

I don't understand. In what way is Statistics a language?

 

[carlitos]

I'm apparently a certified negotiator, translator and saxophonist.



But I am way better at stats than Jabba.

 

[The Don]

I'm apparently a certified negotiator, translator and saxophonist.

I'm apparently (from my youth) a certified bicyclist, swimmer, first aider, cook, athlete and knot-tier.

I may or may not be better at statistics than Jabba.

 

[The Don]

Back to the OP. I have no knowledge, training or certification at Statistics (although Daddy Don did teach it at 'A' level so maybe some sank in - nah, just kidding as a teenager I never listened to my Father). I have however Googled Bayesian Statistics and come up with this simplified definition from Wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baysein_statistics

If the evidence doesn't match up with a hypothesis, one should reject the hypothesis. But if a hypothesis is extremely unlikely a priori, one should also reject it, even if the evidence does appear to match up

So the hypothesis is that there is Immortality.

This hypothesis is extremely unlikely.

No evidence has been produced to support the hypothesis and all scientific evidence we have is that all creatures are mortal.

Reading the simplified definition above, the evidence does not match up with the hypothesis and so it should be rejected.


I suppose Bayesian inference could be used with respect to immortality but we'd need to find an immortal first.

 

[catsmate]

Unbelievable! Jabba posts to this thread, and yet neglects to actually post the material which he should have put in the opening post (which was made nearly 24 hours ago).

Sort of like an certain other thread.

 

[Filippo Lippi]

I expect that Jabba is too busy slagging us* off** to his mates to bother with any of that evidence stuff.


* Jref posters, the big meanies
** again

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

39 hours...

 

[Jabba]

"Certified Statistician"

So when you state that you are a certified statistician what you actually mean is that once, long ago, whilst studying for a PhD that you never finished, you passed a university course in statistics for non mathematical research students, for which you got a certificate.

Wollery,
- No. It means that I took the numerous statistics courses required and did well in them.
--- Jabba

 

[zeggman]

So, while we're waiting for the OP to think of something, has anyone read Richard Carrier's (Atheism Plus Savant, and the author of "The C.H.U.D. Manifesto) Proving History - Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus? I started it, but then it turned out that the quest for the historical Jesus wasn't going to happen until Book 2, so I decided to wait for the thing to be finished and read it then.

Kind of like my attitude with regard to this thread.

 

[Jabba]

"Certified Statistician"

I don't understand. In what way is Statistics a language?

Humots,
- I'm sure that calling statistics a "language" does make some sense.
- And whatever, the State University of New York was calling it that in my day (I assume that they still do), and, I myself would call math in general a language.
--- Jabba