[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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I hope you enjoy it. It came out in 1962, in an SF magazine called Galaxy, and won the Hugo Award.

The original publication included artwork by the SF artist Jack Gaughan. Here is the cover and here is some interior artwork.

It's one of my favorite stories. Please tell me if the e-book includes any of it.

OpenLibrary scan of the trade paperback.

This cover:



No interior art.
 
The stupid analogies are getting stupider.


At last! My cue!


TwinVW.jpg
 
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Jabba,

I hope you finally realize that this 2-year long argument has been a waste of your time.

I have a 21-yo daughter I have been encouraging to read this thread, but it's a waste of her time.
 
Jabba,

I hope you finally realize that this 2-year long argument has been a waste of your time.

I have twin 21-yo daughters I have been encouraging to read this thread, but it's a waste of their time.

Edited by jhunter1163: 
Edited for civility.
 
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- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.


Two and a half years on, and you haven't brought us any closer to what was suggested early on.

Jabba, you have utterly failed. Give up your meaningless struggle or admit you had absolutely nothing to your argument from day one except your own faith.
 
6998
1) It depends on how you define "you". In one sense, they'd both be you, but as far as you were concerned, you would be you and the copy wouldn't be (and the copy would feel the same way, but in reverse). It is, I believe, that latter sense that Jabba is referring to, and if so, then he's correct.
xtifr,
- I think you hit the nail on the head.

It still doesn't help him, though, and I think we should stop quibbling about the duplicate thing, because it's a red herring.
If I understand what you’re saying, I’m pretty sure that the “duplicate” thing is relevant.

The bottom line is: one functioning brain = one sense of self. Whether duplicates or not. If you copy the brain, you get another brain with a separate (but identical) sense of self. One consciousness per brain.
Identical in one sense; but not, in another. For the sake of communication, I’ll go along with the first sense.

Now Jabba just has to prove that there's an infinite number of potential brains that could exist. Which he can't.
And since there are only a finite number of possible arrangements of matter in the universe and only a subset of those include any brains at all, the number of potential selves is very much finite!
Note that when I say "possible arrangements of matter in the universe", I'm not just talking about arrangements that may arise naturally. I'm talking about every theoretical permutation of every bit of mass and energy in the entire universe. Even that inconceivably large set is still finite.
- This is where I disagree.
- First, I don’t think that we can claim with any kind of certainty that matter, energy, time and space are finite. For now, however, I’m just claiming that there is a basis for claiming that something is infinite that doesn’t require that matter, energy, time and space be infinite – as unintuitive as that may sound…
- Here, I claim that there is nothing biological prior to the existence of an illusion of a particular continuous lifetime self (avoiding any issue as to whether a continuous self is real or not) – that limits “who” that illusion will be. I.E., when a particular illusion (a who) ceases to exist, we cannot bring it back into existence by replicating the biology that produced it. There is no limited pool of such illusions. There is nothing to represent a particular illusion prior to its actual existence, and in that sense, the particular illusion comes from nowhere, nothing. Coming from nowhere, nothing, the particular illusion is brand new and had no limited pool from which it was taken. In that sense, the possible particular illusion is unlimited, and any “pool” it came from is infinite.
- I’m sure that you have objections. I hope that they are not too many. This is a hard topic to parse effectively.
 
At least you are being forthright with your errors now, as you state the both plainly.

1. No, you cannot get infinity out of a combination of finite things.

2. Yes, the illusion of self is predicated upon the biology/physics/environment from which it emerged.

Codicil: This is why xtifr correctly stated that the duplicate thing is irrelevant; it has no bearing on the veracity of 1 and 2 above.
 
6998 xtifr,
- I think you hit the nail on the head.


By stating the obvious truths that scores of people have been pointing out to you for months?

Who'd have thought?



If I understand what you’re saying, I’m pretty sure that the “duplicate” thing is relevant.


Then clearly you don't understand at all.



Identical in one sense; but not, in another. For the sake of communication, I’ll go along with the first sense.


I find it difficult to believe that anything you've posted in the last two years was done "for the sake of communication".



- This is where I disagree.
- First, I don’t think that we can claim with any kind of certainty that matter, energy, time and space are finite.


And so you fall at the first hurdle. Everything you might have to say after this is meaningless, irrelevant nonsense.



<snip>

- I’m sure that you have objections. I hope that they are not too many. This is a hard topic to parse effectively.


Especially when one adamantly refuses to read 95% of the discussion.
 
6998 xtifr,
- This is where I disagree.
- First, I don’t think that we can claim with any kind of certainty that matter, energy, time and space are finite. For now, however, I’m just claiming that there is a basis for claiming that something is infinite that doesn’t require that matter, energy, time and space be infinite – as unintuitive as that may sound…
- Here, I claim that there is nothing biological prior to the existence of an illusion of a particular continuous lifetime self (avoiding any issue as to whether a continuous self is real or not) – that limits “who” that illusion will be. I.E., when a particular illusion (a who) ceases to exist, we cannot bring it back into existence by replicating the biology that produced it. There is no limited pool of such illusions. There is nothing to represent a particular illusion prior to its actual existence, and in that sense, the particular illusion comes from nowhere, nothing. Coming from nowhere, nothing, the particular illusion is brand new and had no limited pool from which it was taken. In that sense, the possible particular illusion is unlimited, and any “pool” it came from is infinite.
- I’m sure that you have objections. I hope that they are not too many. This is a hard topic to parse effectively.



Well, you would be wrong, then. But that is okay if you acknowledge that what you believe, think, and claim is not what science or the standard model states. If you want detailed reasons you are wrong, then read the other posts here. But there is obviously no reason to try to re-state what we have already tried to tell you- I think people tried an almost infinity of ways already without success.

Any way, welcome back! Is xtifr the current LCP? If so, I think you are misunderstanding what he is saying.
 
This is a hard topic to parse effectively.

Are you still thinking we don't understand you? It is a simple thing to parse effectively for everyone else here, if not for you.

By the way, do you have any un -rebutted evidence? Are you any closer to the "proof" that you began 2 years ago?
 
Jabba, earlier you said:

- I guess this is our real point of divergence. It has to do with what "identical" includes. To me, the selves (or senses of self) would have different identities. These selves would be different. They would not be "identical."
- Cakes could be identical.
- Officially, VWs could not be identical -- their VIN numbers distinguish between them.
- Human brains go one step further. Each brain produces its own consciousness, possessing its own, living, VIN number. For me, in order for two consciousnesses to be identical, they would have to possess the same living VIN number.

And I asked:

What part of the scientific model is this based on?


Can you answer that? I don't know of anything in the scientific model that supports what you're saying in that post.
 
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avoiding any issue as to whether a continuous self is real or not

Then if a continuous self is required for your view on reincarnation, do you intend to prove that such a thing exists at some point later?
 
6998 xtifr,
- I think you hit the nail on the head.

If I understand what you’re saying, I’m pretty sure that the “duplicate” thing is relevant.

Identical in one sense; but not, in another. For the sake of communication, I’ll go along with the first sense.

- This is where I disagree.
- First, I don’t think that we can claim with any kind of certainty that matter, energy, time and space are finite. For now, however, I’m just claiming that there is a basis for claiming that something is infinite that doesn’t require that matter, energy, time and space be infinite – as unintuitive as that may sound…
- Here, I claim that there is nothing biological prior to the existence of an illusion of a particular continuous lifetime self (avoiding any issue as to whether a continuous self is real or not) – that limits “who” that illusion will be. I.E., when a particular illusion (a who) ceases to exist, we cannot bring it back into existence by replicating the biology that produced it. There is no limited pool of such illusions. There is nothing to represent a particular illusion prior to its actual existence, and in that sense, the particular illusion comes from nowhere, nothing. Coming from nowhere, nothing, the particular illusion is brand new and had no limited pool from which it was taken. In that sense, the possible particular illusion is unlimited, and any “pool” it came from is infinite.
- I’m sure that you have objections. I hope that they are not too many. This is a hard topic to parse effectively.


Good Morning, Mr. Savage!

I am happy to see you posting again...I feared we might have lost you.

I do not want to get bogged down any further in minutiae, but I wonder why you think you can claim that the universe ("matter, energy, time, and space") is not finite? What indication do you have for this, other than the need to appear to support your assumed conclusion?

I am also puzzled by your claim that the "infinity of souls" is not limited by a finite universe. I truly wish you would begin to support your assertions.

I would also like to point out (again) that the lack of a "pool" of "souls" does not mean that the possible number of consciousnesses emergent from functioning neurosystems is "infinite". A finite number multiplied by a finite number is still finite.

I also wonder if you realize that:
...when a particular illusion (a who) ceases to exist, we cannot bring it back into existence by replicating the biology that produced it...

...effectively rules out "immortality" as neurosystems do not last "forever"; but also effectively rules out "reincarnation", as the consciousness that emerges from a particular neurosystem is unique to that neurosysten: it has not been before, nor will it be again .

Since you have destroyed your own argument form this end, why not start at the other end? Why not provide you concrete, empirical, practical, objective evidence that the "souls" exists, and is "immortal"?
 
- There is nothing to represent a particular illusion prior to its actual existence, and in that sense, the particular illusion comes from nowhere, nothing. Coming from nowhere, nothing, the particular illusion is brand new and had no limited pool from which it was taken.


I have asked before, without any attempt on your part to at least clarify what you are saying: are you referring to your own views in this post, or to your mistaken views of what the SM says (or, if it doesn't say it, it should say it according to you so you can show it is wrong). As I said, you can believe this statement if you wish as part of your views, but it is not the SM. I can't help but think you believe this to be proposed by the SM, because it denies reincarnation strongly ("comes from nothing"). So if you think you are stating the SM, you are wrong.

By the way: if reincarnation represents a reincarnation of my "sense of self" but I am next Jane Smith, will that make me a trans-sexual in the next life?
 
By the way: if reincarnation represents a reincarnation of my "sense of self" but I am next Jane Smith, will that make me a trans-sexual in the next life?


I wouldn't get my hopes up too high, if I were you. According to Jabba's redefinition of the SM you're just as likely to be the next Rin Tin Tin or the next "that old rose bush at the bottom of the garden".
 
This is an easy topic to parse effectively. All you have to do is to stop equating "infinity" with "nothing." If you keep making up your own rules of math, science and logic, I don't think anyone can help you.
 
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