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[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Xtifr,
- I hope that the above wasn't too confusing -- I should have said something about "given the scientific hypothesis."


A little something about "essential", "extrinsic" and "quantum" would have added flavour as well.



- I also hope that our apparent progress hasn't been the result of me excluding that disclaimer...


Progress?


Also, congratulations to Xtifr.


LCP.png
 
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Dave,
- OK. At least, we seem to be getting each other parsed -- which might be the first step in effective debate.
- Here, for me at least, "physically distinct" is not the same as chemically distinct.

Effective debate has nothing to do with Jabba posts, and Jabba posts have nothing to do with effective debate.

What the heck is wrong with you? How can you forget the most recent debacle wherein you fled from your one-on-one debate with Loss Leader?
 
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Xtifr,
- I hope that the above wasn't too confusing -- I should have said something about "given the scientific hypothesis."
- I also hope that our apparent progress hasn't been the result of me excluding that disclaimer...

You. don't. understand. any. scientific. hypothesis. There. has. not. been. any. apparent. progress. as. long. as. this. thread. has. been. alive. :boxedin:

DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
 
- I surely hope that I don't mar our apparent progress, but the next step for me is to claim that your chemistry produced a consciousness which developed its own self "from scratch." In other words, not only did your self have no prior existence of any kind, it had no prior blueprint of any kind (that specifically designated you). In that sense, you were created out of nothing, out of thin air. You were a totally brand new thing, and rather than designating you in particular, your blueprint simply allowed for you in particular.

This is...pretty ambiguous! Depending on what you mean, I either agree or disagree, in part or in whole. So, I'll take a first stab at explaining how I might agree and how I might disagree.

First, the scientific model does not involve any sort of predestiny. So, yes, the me that exists is not something that was foreordained. If that's all you meant, then I agree, but I suspect it's not.

On the other hand, I didn't come "out of thin air". Everything about me has a cause. There are a multitude of causes, ranging from my DNA and my brain chemistry, to my diet and my interactions with others, to the books I've read, and, yes, I suppose, even the weather. :)

Since I'm not sure what you mean by "blueprint", I can't say whether the multitude of causes of me-the-way-I-am-now counts as a blueprint or not, so I'm not sure whether I agree or disagree. Taken together as a whole, all my causes could be seen as a sort of blueprint, at least as much (if not more so) than my mere DNA alone (for example), so this is tricky.

(The problem with analogies, like "blueprint", is that they don't always map perfectly.)

If you're trying to prove I'm random, then I disagree. Otherwise, I'm not sure. There might be some random elements, but that's not certain; mostly, it's a matter of chaos (in the formal, systems, sense), which is not the same thing at all.

This may become an important point soon, so I'll re-emphasize it: chaotic behavior (in the mathematical sense) is not the same as random behavior. It may be too complex for our brains to fully understand, or see the patterns, but it's entirely deterministic. And chaotic behavior is strongly linked the concept of emergent behavior.

Also, congratulations to Xtifr. [for becoming LCP]

Thenk yew, thenk yew! Given how stuck-in-a-rut the thread had become, it seemed like it might be worth a try. I've looked at his math. We aren't even close to the messy bits yet! :D
 
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Xtifr,

- Thanks. I'll give her your regards.

- I surely hope that I don't mar our apparent progress, but the next step for me is to claim that your chemistry produced a consciousness which developed its own self "from scratch." In other words, not only did your self have no prior existence of any kind, it had no prior blueprint of any kind (that specifically designated you). In that sense, you were created out of nothing, out of thin air. You were a totally brand new thing, and rather than designating you in particular, your blueprint simply allowed for you in particular.
- I’m crossing my fingers…

Xtifr, I think what Jabba may be alluding to in the text highlighted above is that your "blueprint" (I would call this DNA) does not entirely specify the final you. Instead, it specifies a basic structure that is then built upon by environment, experience, education, and all the other things that go into forming a person.

Before you were conceived, your DNA structures were bounded by your parent's DNA. They could have had lots of other children, but not any human child at all.

Once you were conceived, your DNA was selected from the possible DNAs and that part of your "specification" was fixed.

There remained a very large set of possible variations on the "you" that finally showed up.

In the sense that your DNA limits the possible outcomes (you probably won't have super powers) it "allowed" you to become who your environment and other factors make you.

I believe this contradicts Jabba's "from scratch" and "created out of nothing, out of thin air" statements. You came of a very large potential, not "out of thin air".

You could have been a lot of people, but not anybody.
 
Prediction: Jabba will take a portion of a post that he can misinterpret to support his position,even if the rest of the post explains that the poster really disagrees with him, and manufacture a fake agreement. That is his idea of "progress." That is why he only responds to a LCP.

He has done it before and he will again. IMHO.
 
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Xtifr, I think what Jabba may be alluding to in the text highlighted above is that your "blueprint" (I would call this DNA) does not entirely specify the final you. Instead, it specifies a basic structure that is then built upon by environment, experience, education, and all the other things that go into forming a person.

Probably true, but I haven't always been right when guessing what he meant, so I'm trying to take this a step at a time. You did notice that I pointed out that "all my causes" is more analogous to "blueprint" than DNA is? DNA=blueprint is a very flawed metaphor.

I believe this contradicts Jabba's "from scratch" and "created out of nothing, out of thin air" statements. You came of a very large potential, not "out of thin air".

True, and moreover, none of the subsequent causes of what-you-ended-up-as came "from thin air" either. (Except, possibly, any influence of the weather, which is literally, but not figuratively, from thin air.) :)

I'd have made more of a deal of that, but I'm not yet sure if he's going to try to cling to the whole "from thin air" thing or not.
 
Prediction: Jabba will take a portion of a post that he can misinterpret to support his position,even if the rest of the post explains that the poster really disagrees with him, and manufacture a fake agreement. That is his idea of "progress." That is why he only responds to a LCP.

He has done it before and he will again. IMHO.

LCP being the Least Critical Poster. We've got your number, Mr. Savage.
 
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Dave,
- OK. At least, we seem to be getting each other parsed -- which might be the first step in effective debate.
- Here, for me at least, "physically distinct" is not the same as chemically distinct.

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Xtifr,

- Thanks. I'll give her your regards.

- I surely hope that I don't mar our apparent progress, but the next step for me is to claim that your chemistry produced a consciousness which developed its own self "from scratch." In other words, not only did your self have no prior existence of any kind, it had no prior blueprint of any kind (that specifically designated you). In that sense, you were created out of nothing, out of thin air. You were a totally brand new thing, and rather than designating you in particular, your blueprint simply allowed for you in particular.
- I’m crossing my fingers…

Keep them crossed as long as you like, Jabba.
Our chemistry doesn't produce a consciouaness which develops its own sense of self.
Have you forgotten the definitions of concsiousness?
 
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Dave,
- OK. At least, we seem to be getting each other parsed -- which might be the first step in effective debate.
- Here, for me at least, "physically distinct" is not the same as chemically distinct.

Mr. Savage:

Given what we witnessed, here, when you were given all of the pre-conditions and limitations upon which you insisted, to demonstrate your "effective debate"
(in case you do not remember, you abandoned the filed with no trace of honor); how can you keep talking about it with a straight face?

What about your evidence that the "soul" exists", and is "immortal"?
 
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Xtifr,

- Thanks. I'll give her your regards.

- I surely hope that I don't mar our apparent progress, but the next step for me is to claim that your chemistry produced a consciousness which developed its own self "from scratch." In other words, not only did your self have no prior existence of any kind, it had no prior blueprint of any kind (that specifically designated you). In that sense, you were created out of nothing, out of thin air. You were a totally brand new thing, and rather than designating you in particular, your blueprint simply allowed for you in particular.
- I’m crossing my fingers…

Oh, my.

To appropriate the words of Joseph Welch, adapted for the situation:

Have you no sense of shame, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of shame?
 
This is...pretty ambiguous! Depending on what you mean, I either agree or disagree, in part or in whole. So, I'll take a first stab at explaining how I might agree and how I might disagree.

First, the scientific model does not involve any sort of predestiny. So, yes, the me that exists is not something that was foreordained. If that's all you meant, then I agree, but I suspect it's not.

On the other hand, I didn't come "out of thin air". Everything about me has a cause. There are a multitude of causes, ranging from my DNA and my brain chemistry, to my diet and my interactions with others, to the books I've read, and, yes, I suppose, even the weather. :)

Since I'm not sure what you mean by "blueprint", I can't say whether the multitude of causes of me-the-way-I-am-now counts as a blueprint or not, so I'm not sure whether I agree or disagree. Taken together as a whole, all my causes could be seen as a sort of blueprint, at least as much (if not more so) than my mere DNA alone (for example), so this is tricky.

(The problem with analogies, like "blueprint", is that they don't always map perfectly.)

If you're trying to prove I'm random, then I disagree. Otherwise, I'm not sure. There might be some random elements, but that's not certain; mostly, it's a matter of chaos (in the formal, systems, sense), which is not the same thing at all.

This may become an important point soon, so I'll re-emphasize it: chaotic behavior (in the mathematical sense) is not the same as random behavior. It may be too complex for our brains to fully understand, or see the patterns, but it's entirely deterministic. And chaotic behavior is strongly linked the concept of emergent behavior.



Thenk yew, thenk yew! Given how stuck-in-a-rut the thread had become, it seemed like it might be worth a try. I've looked at his math. We aren't even close to the messy bits yet! :D

But..."We're closer than we've ever been, and now we're even closer!"
 
Prediction: Jabba will take a portion of a post that he can misinterpret to support his position,even if the rest of the post explains that the poster really disagrees with him, and manufacture a fake agreement. That is his idea of "progress." That is why he only responds to a LCP.

He has done it before and he will again. IMHO.

Who are you who is so prespicatious in the ways of "Effective DebateJabbaStyleTM", good Sir Knight?
 
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Probably true, but I haven't always been right when guessing what he meant, so I'm trying to take this a step at a time. You did notice that I pointed out that "all my causes" is more analogous to "blueprint" than DNA is? DNA=blueprint is a very flawed metaphor.

Yes, that is correct. I have read that "blueprint" has a flaw as a metaphor: you can point to individual structures that will exist in the "final product", which can't be done with DNA.

A better metaphor for DNA is recipe. As for a cake.

True, and moreover, none of the subsequent causes of what-you-ended-up-as came "from thin air" either. (Except, possibly, any influence of the weather, which is literally, but not figuratively, from thin air.) :)

I'd have made more of a deal of that, but I'm not yet sure if he's going to try to cling to the whole "from thin air" thing or not.

I'm afraid he will keep regurgitating it using some new wording.
 
Yes, that is correct. I have read that "blueprint" has a flaw as a metaphor: you can point to individual structures that will exist in the "final product", which can't be done with DNA.

A better metaphor for DNA is recipe. As for a cake.
That's a better metaphor, but still somewhat flawed, as DNA is an essential ingredient of the final product as well. In fact, I don't think there are really any good analogies for what DNA does/is. The way it works is pretty much unique in our experience. So any attempts to analogize have to be studied carefully to avoid misunderstandings and error.

I'm afraid he will keep regurgitating it using some new wording.

That's certainly a pattern we've seen in the past. But what the heck; I'm just here to have fun. The whole thing is far too silly to waste any time getting upset about. I just find it interesting to see why people think the things they do sometimes, and I'm certainly learning a lot about that! :D

ETA: As long as he's willing to let me poke, politely, at his belief systems to see how they react, I'm willing to be polite and play LCP in return for the opportunity to poke at his belief systems and see how they react. :)
 
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