McCain vs. Obama: The Electoral Map

[Pookster]

Interesting numbers from the new Florida poll ...

Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.

White voters back McCain 50 - 40 percent while black voters back Obama 95 - 4 percent. Obama leads 57 -35 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; he splits 48 - 46 percent with McCain among voters 35 to 54, and 44 - 46 percent with voters over 55.

The bolded part is extremely surprising to me. I would've thought McCain would be leading by a significant margin with those over 55.


edited to add:

So much for Clinton supporters not supporting Obama as predicted ... so far ...

And 19 percent of those who backed Clinton in the primaries now support McCain.

 

[David Wong]

Yeah Realclearpolitics says the same round of polling that has Obama up by 4 in Florida has him up by 6 in Ohio and by 12 in Pennsylvania.

I can't figure out where that Florida lead came from but maybe it's just the Hillary exit bounce.

EDIT: Also a new poll in Virginia, Obama up by 2.

 

[Puppycow]

One poll could be a fluke, although it does have a decent sample size.
Still a political eternity before November, but these recent polls did move the needle in Obama's favor.

 

[Pookster]

One poll could be a fluke, although it does have a decent sample size.
Still a political eternity before November, but these recent polls did move the needle in Obama's favor.

The way RCP averages polls is rather flawed, IMO. Plus, I put little stock in polls before Obama clinched the nomination. I don't put much more in them before the conventions, but the newest ones will be much more relevant than polls done months ago ... and especially more informative than averaging all these polls that have different methodologies.

All that said, it could easily be a fluke. One poll doesn't make a trend. Time will tell if this poll result holds up.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Yeah Realclearpolitics says the same round of polling that has Obama up by 4 in Florida has him up by 6 in Ohio and by 12 in Pennsylvania.

I can't figure out where that Florida lead came from but maybe it's just the Hillary exit bounce.

Obama also has finally had a chance to campaign in FL, and he's brought his numbers up everywhere he's campaigned, so I'm not all that surprised that FL is no different in that regard.

 

[Brainster]

I recall reading something back in 2005 that talked about the final 2004 polls and how turnout was the wildcard in the whole thing. I can't recall where I read this now, but the article looked at some of the final polls that had Kerry edging Bush in the popular vote. However, the polls assumed a certain level of turnout within certain groups for each candidate. Bush ended up with a bigger turnout among his supporters than was predicted, and Kerry didn't keep pace.

I remember running the numbers on election night and realizing that Bush was probably going to win the popular vote when I saw that turnout was up much more in "red" states than in "blue" states. In states that Bush won in 2000, the turnout was up 16%, while in states that Gore won in 2000, turnout was only up 5.2% (Note: these numbers are off from the final numbers as I didn't finish compiling them after the election, but the conclusion remains the same). Oddly, this was why the electoral college vote was still close despite Bush doing quite a bit better in the popular vote.

 

[Pookster]

I remember running the numbers on election night and realizing that Bush was probably going to win the popular vote when I saw that turnout was up much more in "red" states than in "blue" states. In states that Bush won in 2000, the turnout was up 16%, while in states that Gore won in 2000, turnout was only up 5.2% (Note: these numbers are off from the final numbers as I didn't finish compiling them after the election, but the conclusion remains the same). Oddly, this was why the electoral college vote was still close despite Bush doing quite a bit better in the popular vote.

This doesn't surprise me. I recall reading some of the same kind of thing after the election as well.

 

[Diagoras]

It seems Obama's bounce is sticking, at least for the time being. He's given 2-to-1 odds of winning the election at intrade.com. I made a map from the market data at that website. The bluer a state is, the greater the difference between the market's confidence that that state will go Democrat versus Republican, and vice versa for the red states.

If all the blue states on the map were to go blue and all the red states red, the result would be 306-232 in favor of Obama.

EDIT: In case you can't tell, Nevada and Missouri are slightly red, Virginia and New Hampshire are slightly blue. Also note that the ocean is leaning Democrat.

 

[David Wong]

Rasmusen has McCain back up by 8 in Florida. I am inclined to believe that poll and that the previous one showing Obama up there was an aberration. The demographic deck is really stacked against him.

More disturbing for the Republicans has to be the second poll in a row showing Obama up in Michigan:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Michigan_624.pdf

That has him up by 9, again I'm not completely sure I believe it but that's significant (if any poll taken in late June can be called such) because I don't know that it's possible for McCain to win if he loses Michigan. It gets him in the position of having to flip some other state that, at the moment, appears to be safe for Obama.

 

[David Wong]

What I would be more concerned about as far as voter turnout goes, if I were a Republican, is the simple fact that McCain just isn't nearly as exciting or inspiring to his supporters as Obama is. You can call 1,000 people and roughly half of them might tell you they'd vote for McCain over Obama, but what percentage of those people is fired up enough about McCain to actually go to the polls come Election Day, relative to Obama's supporters?

Only 45% of McCain supporters say they're enthusiastic about their candidate... while a whopping 81% of Obama supporters say they're enthusiastic about theirs.

Wow. If that's true, that crushing for the McCain side. It basically means you can take every single poll and add percentage points to the Obama side, because of the anticipated turnout advantage.


http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.story

 

[boloboffin]

Also note that the ocean is leaning Democrat.

You're just not looking at the right map.

 

[aerosolben]

For an different approach on the electoral map:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Similar setup as real clear politics, but adds weighting to polls based on time and historical accuracy, as well as regressions.

I'm not entirely sold on his regression factors (they seem a little arbitrary, and appear to lean towards the site owner's preferred candidate), but I like his approach to using polling data.

Anyway, he currently predicts 344-194, a more substantial margin.

He also has Obama leading Florida slightly, based on the polling trend (Quinnipiac poll weighted heavier than more recent Rasmussen for size, presumably) and regression weights.

 

[Pookster]

How will Barr and Nader affect the race? Here's an early indication ...


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/25/poll-shows-obama-with-a-double-digit-lead/

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

It'll be interesting to see some tossup/swing State polling numbers that include Barr and Nader.

 

[David Wong]

Those third-party guys always poll better than they perform on election day, most voters lose their nerve and go ahead and pull the lever for the mainstream candidate.

It's a lot easier to tell a pollster you'll never vote for that closet liberal McCain, but when you're in the voting booth the prospect of President Obama will change many of their minds.

Nader's last two runs show this, he consistently comes in lower than he polls.

 

[Puppycow]

Another poll has come out showing a two-digit lead for Obama, this time 12. The average lead is 7.3, which is encouraging. But what makes me worry is that people say that Dukakis had a similar lead at this point. It's really much to early to count those chickens. Fun to imagine, but there's still too much time until the election and too much that can go wrong.

 

[Pookster]

Those third-party guys always poll better than they perform on election day, most voters lose their nerve and go ahead and pull the lever for the mainstream candidate.

It's a lot easier to tell a pollster you'll never vote for that close liberal McCain, but when you're in the voting booth the prospect of President Obama will change many of their minds.

Nader's last two runs show this, he consistently comes in lower than he polls.

True, but they can have effect if a State election is very close. I guess my question is, who is getting/going to get hurt more by them?

 

[David Wong]

The Obama campaign says it will spend most of its money and resources on 14 states Bush won in 2004:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11320.html

They are:

Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Georgia and Alaska.

How likely is he to flip any of those? According to the most recent polling...

NM - Obama up by 8
IA - Obama by 4
CO - Obama by 2
VA - Obama by 2
MO - Obama by 1
IN - Obama by 1

OH - McCain by 1
NV - McCain by 3
NC - McCain by 4
AL - McCain by 4
FL - McCain by 8
MT - McCain by 8
GA - McCain by 10

(No polling for ND)

Those are small margins on all of the ones Obama is leading (all within the margin of error) but that gives you another idea of what the fundraising advantage does for Obama, he can really target the shakiest Bush states and start really leaning on them with voter registration and such, hoping the turnout boost tips them over to his side.

 

[aerosolben]

NM - Obama up by 8
IA - Obama by 4
CO - Obama by 2
VA - Obama by 2
MO - Obama by 1
IN - Obama by 1

OH - McCain by 1
NV - McCain by 3
NC - McCain by 4
AL - McCain by 4
FL - McCain by 8
MT - McCain by 8
GA - McCain by 10

I assume you meant AK - AL is McCain +24.

Also, Insider Advantage has a more recent poll (6/18) with McCain at only +1 in GA. Probably an aberration, though.

Note also that Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling have Obama with 6 and 11 point leads in recent OH polls.

 

[MaGZ]

I agree. It would take some huge mistake by McCain to lose Georgia. I just don't see it happening. Virginia would be his best chance between the two.

McCain could lose Georgia with votes going to Bob Barr.

 

[gdnp]

Are you so sure that Obama has a massive fundraising advantage?

While you were out (hopefully) enjoying the first weekend of summer, the campaigns released their latest fundraising reports.

And it turns out that May might be considered a bad fundraising month for Barack Obama – that is, if $23.3 million raised counts as "bad." Compare the May total to Obama's past performance: The presumptive Democratic nominee, whose fundraising success has been unprecedented, raised nearly $32 million in April and more than $40 million in March.

Including May, Obama, who has opted out of public financing for the general election, has now raised $295.5 million. He has $43.1 million on hand as of the end of the month, including $33.3 million for the primary.
John McCain, meanwhile, raised $21.5 million in May, his best fundraising month yet. His total, which nearly matches Obama for the month, marks an improvement on the $18.5 million he raised in April and roughly $15 million he took in in March. McCain has now raised $121.9 million for the campaign and has $31.6 million on hand.
There was more good news in the May reports for McCain: The Republican National Committee, which will be spending aggressively on McCain's behalf in the coming months, took in $24.4 million for the month. The Democratic National Committee, by contrast, took in just $4.8 million. The RNC now has $53.5 million in the bank to the DNCs $3.9 million, and is poised to help at least partially make up McCain's fundraising gap.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/06/23/politics/horserace/entry4202380.shtml

Now the RNC obviously has a lot of house and senate seats to defend in addition to the presidential campaign, but based on the total (candidate + national committee) cash on hand, the Republicans are comfortably in the lead at this point.

Besides, money is not everything. Obama outspent Clinton by significant amounts and then still lost states by double digits. I would expect any spending gap to have even less effect in the final election, now that both candidates are reasonably well known.