McCain vs. Obama: The Electoral Map

[Pookster]

And even Virginia would not make up for losing Ohio and Florida.
Look, considering the history of the Dems in Ohio and Florida, I don't blame then for not looking forward to another close battle in those states, but I don't really see any real alternatives. Those are the battleground states, It is almost impossible to win without one of them, and the Dems frankly have no choice but to fight there.

Obama can win without Florida, but he can't lose either Penn or Ohio if he does. He has to hold onto Michigan as well. There are a few States like Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa that could turn blue this time, but Obama can't count on that happening.

 

[David Wong]

Now reports are that some on the Obama campaign think they win without Ohio or Florida by Taking Virginia or Georgia.
IMHO that is a very risky strategy. I really think that Georgia is particualry unlikely to go Democratic.

Now wait, you're talking like they have to pick one scenario or the other. They don't, they'll have the money to hammer Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Georgia with ads.

They don't have to be selective in their targets, that's what a fundraising advantage does for you.

 

[Pookster]

Now wait, you're talking like they have to pick one scenario or the other. They don't, they'll have the money to hammer Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Georgia with ads.

They don't have to be selective in their targets, that's what a fundraising advantage does for you.

There's a number of scenarios that can give Obama 270 without Florida. He makes it a whole lot easier if he carries Ohio (polls show it a tossup) and Penn (Obama with a slight lead) though. While Virginia is in play for him this year, Georgia would take a heck of a lot of work. It would take registering a huge number of Black voters over the coming months. It's possible, but not very likely.

Obama is going to have to fight somewhat to keep New Hampshire and Michigan blue (at the moment anyways). Otherwise, there are a number of red States in play from 2004. The fund raising advantage is going to really stretch McCain out in defending those.

 

[Diagoras]

Obama is not going to win Florida. The two parties were about dead even in the last two elections, but circumstances are different now. Not only did Obama cause a stir among Floridians with the whole primary brouhaha, but Florida also has a large elderly population that's going to strongly favor McCain. None of the polls in recent months have bode well for Obama. I think we can safely consider Florida a red state this time around.

Pennsylvania, however, will probably be going Democrat. It might be a close one with the rural Appalachian population in the middle, but Pittsburgh and Philly should be blue enough to negate that. Things are looking significantly better for Obama than McCain here, and I feel pretty confident the Dems should be able to secure it.

Iowa and Wisconsin have been swing states in the past with very close results, but Obama has a decent lead in the polls, he won both their primaries, and his geographical proximity should give him an edge. I consider it rather unlikely that McCain will make a comeback in either state, especially considering he has bigger fish to fry elsewhere and a more limited budget to work with.

Here is how I think the scene looks right now.

McCain should win Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming for 201 electoral votes.

Obama should win California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawai'i, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, both Washingtons, and Wisconsin for 238 electoral votes.

That leaves just nine states which could, I think, go either way. McCain needs 69 and Obama needs 32 electoral votes from the following to win:
Ohio (20): Polls are showing Obama and McCain neck-and-neck here, with Obama retaining a small (read: statistically insignificant) lead. The predictions market is going more strongly in Obama's favor, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. If McCain is going to squeak out a victory, he needs this state. Obama has a few options without it, but McCain pretty much loses the election if he loses Ohio.
Michigan (17): A traditionally blue state, but the margins for Democratic victory have been getting narrower and narrower over the years. Michigan's big cities are shrinking and the more conservative regions like Grand Rapids have been growing in political importance. McCain may very well take this state for the Republicans for the first time since 1988.
North Carolina (15): A traditionally Republican state that McCain should win, but polls are showing Obama rapidly catching up. North Carolina's large black population just might tip the scales in Obama's favor, or at least put up a good long fight that will divert McCain dollars from other states.
Virginia (13): Another traditionally Republican state that has suddenly come into play thanks to Virginia's large black population and the growing suburbs of Washington, D.C. Polls show Obama and McCain tied. The Democrats could definitely take this one, especially if Jim Webb is the VP candidate.
Missouri (11): Considered a very reliable benchmark state, meaning it almost always votes for the winner of the election. Polls show no statistically significant lead for either candidate here, but Obama hailing from a neighboring state may give him an edge.
Colorado (9): Voted Republican in the last 3 elections, but polls are showing Obama has a good lead he might very well be able to hold onto till November.
Nevada (5): A traditionally red state, polls show McCain with a bit of a lead, and his geographical influence could spread into Las Vegas enough to significantly counteract the urban Democratic vote. I'm predicting a Republican victory here, but not by much, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Obama narrowly wins Nevada.
New Mexico (5): Again, there's the question of whether McCain's geographical influence can cross the state border. But polls show Obama with a modest lead, and he's very popular among Hispanics, which make up enough of New Mexico's population that it's the only state in the union where Spanish is an official language alongside English.
New Hampshire (4): Voted for Kerry in 2004 but for Bush in 2000. Really difficult to say which way it'll swing this time as it's a state with a peculiar political climate, but if it was blue enough to vote for Kerry I'm hoping it'll also vote for another Democrat who's a little more exciting than Kerry was.

 

[jnelso99]

Wow - all this sounds like one big computer game...

 

[David Wong]

Now this is interesting. While Obama leads by just 4 points, he's up by 12 in the question of "Who do you THINK will win."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107995/Americans-Predict-Obama-Will-Next-US-President.aspx

Meaning people who support McCain (particularly independents) aren't positive about his chances. Does that affect anything at all? Like do people tend not to turn out if they think their guy will lose? Or do they turn out more?

Does anybody have similar polling from 2000 or 2004? I'd be interested to see how that affected the outcome if at all.

 

[Pookster]

Now this is interesting. While Obama leads by just 4 points, he's up by 12 in the question of "Who do you THINK will win."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107995/Americans-Predict-Obama-Will-Next-US-President.aspx

Meaning people who support McCain (particularly independents) aren't positive about his chances. Does that affect anything at all? Like do people tend not to turn out if they think their guy will lose? Or do they turn out more?

Does anybody have similar polling from 2000 or 2004? I'd be interested to see how that affected the outcome if at all.

What will be interesting to watch is for any State & local elections that may spur voter turnout for one party or another.

Also, controversial ballot initiatives can cause a big turnout as well. Right now, I'm not aware of anything that really favors one party over another. Some have speculated that the same-sex marriage amendments in some States hurt Kerry in 2004. I don't see that kind of thing coming into play this year ... so far.

 

[David Wong]

Wow.

McCain must be very, very confident he has Florida in his camp, because he just announced he wants off-shore drilling there, even though the Republican governor there opposes it. Crist is opposed, and Jeb Bush opposed it before him.

That's... very very interesting. They must have polling showing the Democrats ticked off Florida voters so badly that he can take a stance that isn't even supported by the Republicans there.

And yes, guys, it's not the tree-hugging environmentalists keeping us from drilling, it's the very Republican state governors who know how unpopular drilling in their own back yard will be. That's why with a Republican president, house and senate, they were never able to get these drilling bills passed.

Very interesting, and very risky. But again the polls I see have McCain up comfortably in Florida, he has to figure it just won't matter.

Still, it gives the Obama campaign a whole series of ads to run down there.

 

[Diagoras]

Now this is interesting. While Obama leads by just 4 points, he's up by 12 in the question of "Who do you THINK will win."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107995/Americans-Predict-Obama-Will-Next-US-President.aspx

Meaning people who support McCain (particularly independents) aren't positive about his chances. Does that affect anything at all? Like do people tend not to turn out if they think their guy will lose? Or do they turn out more?

Does anybody have similar polling from 2000 or 2004? I'd be interested to see how that affected the outcome if at all.

What I would be more concerned about as far as voter turnout goes, if I were a Republican, is the simple fact that McCain just isn't nearly as exciting or inspiring to his supporters as Obama is. You can call 1,000 people and roughly half of them might tell you they'd vote for McCain over Obama, but what percentage of those people is fired up enough about McCain to actually go to the polls come Election Day, relative to Obama's supporters?

 

[Pookster]

What I would be more concerned about as far as voter turnout goes, if I were a Republican, is the simple fact that McCain just isn't nearly as exciting or inspiring to his supporters as Obama is. You can call 1,000 people and roughly half of them might tell you they'd vote for McCain over Obama, but what percentage of those people is fired up enough about McCain to actually go to the polls come Election Day, relative to Obama's supporters?

I recall reading something back in 2005 that talked about the final 2004 polls and how turnout was the wildcard in the whole thing. I can't recall where I read this now, but the article looked at some of the final polls that had Kerry edging Bush in the popular vote. However, the polls assumed a certain level of turnout within certain groups for each candidate. Bush ended up with a bigger turnout among his supporters than was predicted, and Kerry didn't keep pace.

If I can find this old article again, I link to it.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Now reports are that some on the Obama campaign think they win without Ohio or Florida by Taking Virginia or Georgia.
IMHO that is a very risky strategy. I really think that Georgia is particualry unlikely to go Democratic.

I don't think this means they're not going to go after OH and FL aggressively. It's more likely an expectations-setting game, and a signal that they're going to force the McCain campaign to compete in states they'd rather not.

 

[WildCat]

And yes, guys, it's not the tree-hugging environmentalists keeping us from drilling, it's the very Republican state governors who know how unpopular drilling in their own back yard will be. That's why with a Republican president, house and senate, they were never able to get these drilling bills passed.

Very interesting, and very risky. But again the polls I see have McCain up comfortably in Florida, he has to figure it just won't matter.

Still, it gives the Obama campaign a whole series of ads to run down there.

It's not the environmentalists that matter in Florida, it's old whites who wouldn't vote for a black man at gunpoint. Not enough younger voters in Florida to turn that one around.

 

[chipmunk stew]

What I would be more concerned about as far as voter turnout goes, if I were a Republican, is the simple fact that McCain just isn't nearly as exciting or inspiring to his supporters as Obama is. You can call 1,000 people and roughly half of them might tell you they'd vote for McCain over Obama, but what percentage of those people is fired up enough about McCain to actually go to the polls come Election Day, relative to Obama's supporters?

And more importantly, to bring other people to the polls. Obama's GOTV effort will be massively superior to McCain's.

 

[Dragoonster]

I recall reading something back in 2005 that talked about the final 2004 polls and how turnout was the wildcard in the whole thing. I can't recall where I read this now, but the article looked at some of the final polls that had Kerry edging Bush in the popular vote. However, the polls assumed a certain level of turnout within certain groups for each candidate. Bush ended up with a bigger turnout among his supporters than was predicted, and Kerry didn't keep pace.

If I can find this old article again, I link to it.

One of the larger turnout swings in '04 was the many anti-gay marriage propositions on GE ballots that brought out arch-conservatives in large numbers. Rove was that mastermind and it may have had a large impact, but he's gone, and that strategy may have been a one-shot. I think the biggest change in four years is his quitting and who...Ken Mehlman replacing him? No matter who it's a big letdown compared to Rove. And Mehlman is an idiot (imo).

I don't see the GOP pulling another rabbit out of the hat leading up to the election. Obama has shown that he'll be more proactive in dealing with silly issues like Rev. Wright than Kerry was for swift boats. And Howard Dean seems a lot more up on what it takes to actually win 270 EC votes than Terry McAuliffe (also an idiot, imo).

All else equal = Obama will win based on current polls
Party chairman = Dems have the edge
State issues = GOP has a slight edge (there are no touchstone liberal props that would get dems out)
X-factor = Obama's already weathered Rev. Wright, McCain's weathered 20 years, not much room to change the outcome.

Oh and 402's or whatever they're called--moveon.org is more powerful than the GOP's.

I just don't see any major thing happening 'til November that would make current/future polls as incorrect as in '04.

 

[Diagoras]

Obama is not going to win Florida. The two parties were about dead even in the last two elections, but circumstances are different now. Not only did Obama cause a stir among Floridians with the whole primary brouhaha, but Florida also has a large elderly population that's going to strongly favor McCain. None of the polls in recent months have bode well for Obama. I think we can safely consider Florida a red state this time around.

I take that back.

 

[Spock Jenkins]

Biggest impact will be if the gas prices stay up, McCain will have to start providing real numbers on the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. How much will it cost you if the tax cuts expire? Can you afford it?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/02/news/economy/bush_taxcuts_anniversary/index.htm?section=money_latest

According to the above linked article:

Allowing the cuts to expire would add $1,900 to the tax bill of a family of four with an annual income of $60,000, Bush said. All told, he added, 43 million families with kids would have to pay an average tax increase of $2,323.

Now, people that don't like the President will say, "consider the source".

An extra $2,000 a year is a lot of money to shell out for anyone given the increasing cost of energy and such. After Bush the elder and Clinton, it will be hard to convince middle America that their taxes won't go up even if Obama says otherwise. "Oh, but it's only the rich." Surprise! You're rich! I bet you didn't know that.

Obama will have to tough sell job to convince America that higher energy prices aren't here to say. No matter what policies he puts in place, we will not be seeing $2.00 gas any time soon. He will also have a hard time convincing many Americans that our out of pocket expenses won't go up for healthcare, regardless of who is covering us. It's one thing to make it available, it's another thing to bring the rising cost under control. Two separate issues.

Personally, I'd like to hear one of the candidates discuss how and where they are going to cut spending. Unfortunately everyone is too concerned about upsetting special interests to do that.

 

[Pookster]

I take that back.

Wow. It'll be interesting to see if these leads hold up over the coming months. But coming after Clinton conceded, it's quite interesting.

 

[Pookster]

Wow.

McCain must be very, very confident he has Florida in his camp, because he just announced he wants off-shore drilling there, even though the Republican governor there opposes it. Crist is opposed, and Jeb Bush opposed it before him.

That's... very very interesting. They must have polling showing the Democrats ticked off Florida voters so badly that he can take a stance that isn't even supported by the Republicans there.

And yes, guys, it's not the tree-hugging environmentalists keeping us from drilling, it's the very Republican state governors who know how unpopular drilling in their own back yard will be. That's why with a Republican president, house and senate, they were never able to get these drilling bills passed.

Very interesting, and very risky. But again the polls I see have McCain up comfortably in Florida, he has to figure it just won't matter.

Still, it gives the Obama campaign a whole series of ads to run down there.

It'll be interesting to see if he backpedals now in the face of the new poll showing Obama leading him in Florida now 47%-43%.

 

[Kestrel]

Personally, I'd like to hear one of the candidates discuss how and where they are going to cut spending. Unfortunately everyone is too concerned about upsetting special interests to do that.

Obama has said he will bring the troops home from Iraq. That alone will cut a huge amount of spending.

There are certainly other spending items to consider. For example, are massive subsidies for cotton farmers really that important considering we already sent our textile industry overseas?

ETA: Cotton subsides are not a good example, it seems we dropped them a year or two ago after complaints from the WTO.

 

[Spock Jenkins]

Obama has said he will bring the troops home from Iraq. That alone will cut a huge amount of spending.

There are certainly other spending items to consider. For example, are massive subsidies for cotton farmers really that important considering we already sent our textile industry overseas?

I agree regarding the subsidies for certain industries, but try running a winning campaign on killing the family farm.

As far as the troops go, I agree to an extent. The next president will have to make a big choice, and I'd like them to be upfront about it in the election (not holding my breath). Either we cut our losses and run and allow the region to return to the same infighting that has always been there conceding that we can't change a culture of violence and fanaticism, or we commit to being there for a very long time.

If Obama says we cut our losses and run, he will have to defend the notion that the region means very little in terms of defending the United States from terrorism at home. If McCain says we stay, he will have to defend the notion that our preseence in Iraq is a major factor in preventing another 9/11.

But regardless of troops, Obama is leading the way in proposing new government spending (not that McCain is innocent of this by any stretch). Iraq alone is not going to pay for either candidates promises. The tax increases have been promised by Obama, and just like Bush and Clinton - they will hit lower incomes than they are currently promising.

Convince me that my grocery bill will go down if farm subsidies are cut. Convince me that my utility bills and my expense at the pump will decrease significantly through some magical new policy initiative. Convince me that my annual spending on healthcare will be cut in half and my service level will stay the same or get better once the government is in charge. Then ask me to pay $2,000 more in taxes for these great benefits. Otherwise, let me keep my $2,000 because I'm sure I can make better choices for me and my family than either candidate.