JREF Forum's predictions for 2064

[Mark6]

OK, I'll bite.

I do not expect to be alive in 2064; if I am, I will be 98.

Will America still be a superpower? Will it still be the greatest superpower?

America will be one of major powers. There will be no superpower as such.

What will the population of the world be?

9-10 billion and dropping.

Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?

No. There will be occasional human forays beyond LEO, but most of space presence will be robotic. However, see below.

Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?

Less great than today. Contrary to most people, I believe Africa will get its act together within a generation. By 2064 I expect Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa to be major powers. Countries which depend on oil production will come down hard. Middle East will be much poorer than now, and still a mess.

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?

Huge problem yes, but not as most people imagine it. I expect ocean acidification and loss of fisheries to be the single worst impact of global warming. Also known as The Rise of Slime. Far inland effects of global warming will be less drastic, and in some cases benign. Russia will benefit from longer growing season, which may or may not offset its loss of revenue when oil runs out.

What amazing new technologies will we have?

I won't speculate. If I can imagine it, it is not amazing enough

Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life? How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?

First one yes, second one no.

Will we have artificial intelligence? An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?

Pretty much what Puppycow said. The term "AI" will have very different meaning from what it was originally intended; in fact, it already is. Siri is AI. Turing Test will be overcome, but only as a parlor trick -- it will be specialized software which can do nothing but carry on conversation.

What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?

Will we conquer any diseases that haven't already been conquered?

Most genetic diseases will be curable. Transplant organs will be routinely grown from patient's own tissue. Militaries throughout the world will make use of cell therapy to make better soldiers -- stronger, faster, able to digest wider variety of food. Some non-US, non-Europe locations (most likely Southeast Asia) will have started work on space and aquatic adaptations. Expect first permanent colony in space around 2100, but they will not be exactly "human".

What else?

I will really go out on a limb, and will say chess will no longer be Russia's national sport. Football will still be US'.

 

[CapelDodger]

Make your predictions here, and maybe if this forum still exists and has members in 50 years, it will an amusing time capsule for them to see. Or perhaps it will be long-forgotten and/or deleted by then. Who knows?

I expect this forum and a vast array of similar sites to be archived and pored over as original sources by historians. Hi to any historians reading this; all I ask is that you try to see things from our point of view. To future journalists needing to file a "Fifty Years Ago" story, try to spell my name right. It's the most I expect from a contemporary journalist, and in the history of journalism 50 years is an eyeblink. I know your kind .

Will this forum still exist? With active users?

I think something similar which can be traced back to it. If it ever closes I'm sure there'll be enough people to carry the torch to a new venue.

I don't expect to be alive myself, but if I am I will be 93 on Jan. 1st.
Some of us here now will probably still be alive.

I intend to start that year at 109 and end it, still smiling, at 110.

Will America still be a superpower? Will it still be the greatest superpower?

The concept will be anachronistic.

What will the population of the world be?

As gullible as ever.

Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?

Permanent as opposed to transient? Possibly. Self-sustaining? No.

Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?

They'll be more similar, principally because the rich world can't get much richer. Jetpacks aside, what are we really missing?

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?

It will, and not just because of the warming itself. That will be felt everywhere, and everywhere there will be blame cast. Let's not worry about how rational the casting might be because, let's face it, most people don't - and therein lies the problem. Global warming as an excuse for governmental failure and the invention of external culprits - the West, the Chinese, the rich, the poor ...

What amazing new technologies will we have?

Direct stimulation of pleasure centres in the brain.

Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life? How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?

No opinion, but fingers crossed . My life has been blessed by the Hubble telescope; I couldn't reasonably ask for more and yet there's been so much of it.

Will we have artificial intelligence? An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?

Bored now.

What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?

Too broad.

Will we conquer any diseases that haven't already been conquered?

A lot of conditions will become treatable, and many will become predictable (broadly, the DNA thing).

What else?

Did I mention gullibility? That'll still be around, as will the careers it inspires, such as journalism. (I can safely stick that jibe in here, knowing it's a rare journalist, present or future, who reads anything right to the bottom.)

 

[CapelDodger]

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?

Not necessarily a problem, but one effect of AGW over the next half-century will be a navigable Arctic Ocean. We're seeing the first stirrings of that and it's far more important than the newly "available" oil and gas resources. Fossil fuels (and personal transport) are so last century.

This is a fundamental change in the shape of the world. Canada and Russia shift from the periphery to the centre of the North, which will continue to be the centre of the world.

Bad news for Somali pirates, and for shareholders in the Panama Canal. As usual, the North triumphs. We did it before we had our own ocean to get around on, so we're not about to slip up now. A couple of Russo-Canadian wars for the press, the Alaskan secession thing, Denmark's surprise intervention - easily packed into fifty years. (Not a prediction, you understand, just an example of stuff happening.)

 

[Puppycow]

Just wanted to bump this thread to note that it's been 5 years since I started this thread and there's only 45 more years to go until 2064! Also, feel free to add anything if you want.

 

[Puppycow]

Two areas where some significant progress seems to have been made since 2014:

The whole CRISPR/Cas9 thing seems to be really taking off. I don't remember much discussion about it in 2014. I'm sure it was known to experts at the time, but there wasn't a lot of discussion about it in the lay media, if memory serves.

Quantum computers: I seem to remember that it was an idea being discussed at the time, but it still hadn't reached the stage of something they could really build yet. Now it exists, but we still have yet to see what will actually come of it. What problems will it solve, I wonder.

 

[JoeMorgue]

//These are all my own best guess predictions. Insert "My opinion" and "Most probably" and "Given current data and trends" wherever necessary to avoid having a pedantic conniption fit.//

- America will not be a super-power but more in the sense that by then we will have start to have seen the end of the Nation-State as the big way human beings form the biggest demographic groups. The United States will probably still exist and probably still be a major international player (I can see scenarios where it's still the big dog, scenarios where it's a major force behind a unified EU or certain Asiatic powers all being possible) but "I'm a citizen of this Country" won't be the defining characteristic for people the way it is now.

- Population will be around 10 billion and its increase rate continuing to slow

- High probability of a "mostly" semi-self colony of some sort on the Moon, medium of one on Mars although we will have probably have at least made a human landing on Mars.

- Computer brain integration will have achieved at least some common use, if not widespread.

 

[dann]

In 2064, computer scientists will (still) be telling us that "real" AI is about 20 years away.

In 2064, AIs will accuse human computer scientists of biocentrism.
AI computer scientists will object to the accusation and advocate sentientism.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

We won't be completely starving ... yet ... but the handwriting will be on the wall.

This prediction: Only 60 Years of Farming Left If Soil Degradation Continues will be seen as wrong, but the way they avoided it was by even more intensive (and destructive) agriculture and breaking even more new ground. Even formerly "sacred" areas like Yellowstone park and the cabinet wilderness areas, and a whole lot of Canada's, Congo's, Brazil's, Russia's etc... wilderness areas will have been cleared and now in food production because the spread of desertification and rising sea levels degrading previous fertile ground.

This so called "solution" of clearing new ground will have been seen as a huge mistake due to the triggering of widespread ecological cascades worldwide.

Will there be time to reverse it and not cause biosphere collapse, civilization collapse and even maybe mass extinctions including human? I don't know, and I predict they won't know yet either. By then the food riots will have just begun... making the famine in Ethiopia look like a cake walk... it will be a huge chaotic battle to try and save civilization and the natural world at the same time. But I do believe by then they will understand the full scope of the problem finally.

These words of wisdom will finally be understood after being ignored for so long:

"The first duty of the agriculturalist must always be to understand that he is part of nature and can not escape from his environment." - Sir Albert Howard

“As the small trickle of results grows into an avalanche — as is now happening overseas — it will soon be realized that the animal is our farming partner and no practice and no knowledge which ignores this fact will contribute anything to human welfare or indeed will have any chance either of usefulness or of survival.” Sir Albert Howard

 

[jonesdave116]

Somebody will still be carrying on Randell Mills scam, but producing much better quality videos. People stupid enough to invest in such things will still exist. Sad

 

[Hans]

Serious lack of water in many countries and used of synthetic gas (made from coal) to power salt water conversion plants in the third world.

Large plagues as antibiotics weaken and sanitation breaks down. The rich nations will be able to deal with sea water rise and other problems. Large dense population nations with weak governments will fall apart. A type of modern feudalism (warlords) will become common in countries with heavy population concentrations.

Private colonies on Moon perhaps Mars and perhaps in habitats in space.

Nuclear exchange in the ME.

Collapse of China and rise of Europe.

Good chance American will revert to a type of 'punctuated isolationism' and will cease to be the world's policeman and more small national wars will be the result.

 

[Darat]

I'll be dead.

 

[Venom]

My death year, according to some website called Deathclock.

 

[Mojo]

The British Prime Minister will write to the EU to request an extension of the Brexit deadline.

 

[Puppycow]

Oh dear.

 

[Ziggurat]

Will America still be a superpower? Will it still be the greatest superpower?

Yes.

No, about equal to EU and China.

China will not surpass the US, though it may close the gap considerably. Their biggest advantage, a larger population, will become a liability as their demographic structure becomes top heavy because of the one child policy. I suspect that the EU will continue to fracture politically.

No - China or Russia

China will be a rival. Russia? Not a chance. Their nuclear weapons will guarantee them continued importance, but their population decline alone will ensure they won't be able to directly rival us.

Yes and Yes. America will continue to benefit from immigration and cultural dominance. Europe will still be wealthy but since it is not one country, America will still be the greatest. China will be a major economic power, but I think they will be in decline by that point for demographic reasons. Militaries will be increasingly based on robots and drones.

I'm not sure China will be in actual decline, but they need to do a lot more than just not decline in order pass us. Europe will be incredibly important, but they won't have the unified political will to act as a great power.

There will be no superpowers. America will be a major power, but China and Japan will rival America.

China may be a near peer. Japan will not be. Demographics will keep them well behind us.

Militarily, yes. Anyone else who might try to catch up and overtake us would be starting from behind technologically, so they'd need to advance significantly faster than us, while both basic economics and political choices will mean they'd need to do it with much less investment to pay for it. To address the main suggested competitors individually:

• Japan's just small; no resource base, especially compared to its population. It also is an American ally satisfied with letting the USA be in the position it's in.
• China is presently on a course for self-destruction on an unprecedented scale, and will, by then, still be trying to recover its own post-collapse internal living conditions from third-world back up to second-world. The shriveling of the Chinese threat to Japan will also mean Japan perceives little incentive to bother building up.
• Europe, even if it is under a single government by then, will be one that just doesn't want to bother. And it will be an American ally content with letting the USA be in the position it's in.
• Russia will be the one with the best chance to rival the USA. Global warming will make its resource base easier to access and its farmland more productive, resulting in economic growth that makes it easier to pay for science & engineering without cutting corners. However, the USA has a rather large head start to try to catch up with both technologically and in being the one the world is used to, I expect Russian culture to lose interest in military rivalry as its economic situation improves, if it doesn't then it will revive Europe's self-interest in building up, and Russia faces some risk of suffering a setback in the form of an attack from a desperate China.

Economically and culturally, the USA will share the top spot with Europe and Russia, and English will still be the main international language.

I agree about Japan. China will definitely face major problems, but I don't think it'll fare quite as poorly as you do. I guess we'll see. I think we agree about Europe's role, but disagree over causes. I think it will be less an issue of not wanting to bother and more of an issue of having too much internal political conflict (not wars, just bickering and tensions) to act in a sufficiently unified manner to challenge us.

I disagree completely regarding Russia. I think their demographic decline, along with deeply embedded authoritarianism, will hamstring Russia even if they get a boost from climate change.

- America will not be a super-power but more in the sense that by then we will have start to have seen the end of the Nation-State as the big way human beings form the biggest demographic groups. The United States will probably still exist and probably still be a major international player (I can see scenarios where it's still the big dog, scenarios where it's a major force behind a unified EU or certain Asiatic powers all being possible) but "I'm a citizen of this Country" won't be the defining characteristic for people the way it is now.

I think the reverse will happen: that we will see more of a return to national identity, as problems such as immigration and cultural assimilation prove to be more of a problem than the trans-nationalists and multiculturalists have portrayed it to be. What I don't know is whether this reversion will be bloody or peaceful.

 

[xterra]

Post your predictions here to be sure they survive:


http://longbets.org/

 

[Robin]

Fox News will have a segment on the "PC war on Trumpmas"

 

[wasapi]

Post your predictions here to be sure they survive:


http://longbets.org/

What an interesting site, thanks. I may be stuck there awhile! You also have the ability to search the predictors history of other, past predictions. Having only spent a few minutes, I was still happy to see so many positive issues for people, the environment, and overall well being of the Universe. I'm sure, however, many dire predictions exist as well.

 

[Trebuchet]

I'll be 116 and going strong! Unlike this forum.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

I have another one to add. I predict the discovery and confirmation of fossil non-avian dinosaurs on the lost continent of Zealandia well past the KT boundary. But that were doomed anyway due to the gradual sinking of the continent.