Is Sheikh Nasrallah done and buried?

[gabeygoat]

Lost in all this is Israel's ability to deliver small-yield battlefield tactical nukes, from subs or even in artillery-shell warheads. The doctrine for Israel has been not to be the nation to introduce these weapons into combat scenarios unless as final resort. That may change --- Gaza literally might require a full removal of all standing & damaged buildings with such a blast, to level it all and then a few months down the road, earthmovers can roll in to remove the (very low radioactivity by then) debris and leave a cleared landscape to work with in establishing a NewState of Palestine, Gaza/N.Sinai.

Egypt is standing in the way of that.
This, too, might change after Israel detonates a couple minor mushroom clouds a few kilometers up the way from the Rafah border~~~~

And the signal conveyed to Tehran, and Beirut, is unmistakable -- DON'T CONTINUE AS YOU ARE...

Ugh, if Israel does that, Russia would see it as permission to do the same in Ukraine

 

[webfusion]

Ugh, if Israel does that, Russia would see it as permission to do the same in Ukraine

Is Ukraine requiring a clean-up in Aisle 5?

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

Did anyone notice that Iran may have just tested a nuclear bomb? A 4.5 earthquake wave has been reported, along with a huge explosion heard near Isfahan. (Iran's official media is downplaying this event).

BTW, Another top-level Hezbollah dirtbag (Husseini) was eliminated today, amid continuing sorties (120 just yesterday) against Lebanese targets that pose a threat to Israel, as over 100 terror rockets rained down on Israel from Lebanese territory into our cities.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I do like TGZ's bold strategy of insinuating that the Jews are too stupid to build modern bombs and missiles.

interesting that that is your interpretation.

No, of they are not stupid - it's just cheaper buying them at cost from the US (or getting them for free).

there is no better way to prevent a domestic industry from being established than cheap imports of the same product.

 

[Ziggurat]

interesting that that is your interpretation.

No, of they are not stupid - it's just cheaper buying them at cost from the US (or getting them for free).

You said Israel didn't have them, and you said that in order to argue that Israel didn't have the capability to strike Iranian hardened facilities. But if they can buy them, they can have them (and again, they already bought them).

And if they can't buy them, then they can make them, even if it is more expensive.

 

[theprestige]

Ugh, if Israel does that, Russia would see it as permission to do the same in Ukraine

Nonsense. Russia doesn't care permission.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

You said Israel didn't have them, and you said that in order to argue that Israel didn't have the capability to strike Iranian hardened facilities. But if they can buy them, they can have them (and again, they already bought them).

And if they can't buy them, then they can make them, even if it is more expensive.

I guess I was unclear.

My point was that Israel needs to use the ones it got from the US; without US weapons, Israel would not be able to attack Iran - or Gaza, Lebanon, etc.

And no, they can't make them at the speed and volume required for their current war effort, and that won't change for many years, no matter how much effort they put into domestic production.
The number of bombs Israel is dropping in this short amount of time is unprecedented.

 

[Ziggurat]

Did anyone notice that Iran may have just tested a nuclear bomb? A 4.5 earthquake wave has been reported, along with a huge explosion heard near Isfahan. (Iran's official media is downplaying this event).

There's no way that was a nuke test. If Iran tests a nuke, it's going to be underground. It's not that hard to bury a nuke, and avoiding the fallout is desirable enough that even crazy fascists like North Korea do it that way. Above ground tests had some use in the very early days when we didn't know what the blasts did, but everyone knows that part well enough, there's no point anymore.

 

[Hercules56]

delete

 

[Ziggurat]

I guess I was unclear.

My point was that Israel needs to use the ones it got from the US; without US weapons, Israel would not be able to attack Iran - or Gaza, Lebanon, etc.

And no, they can't make them at the speed and volume required for their current war effort

You weren't talking about the current war effort. You were specifically talking about a hypothetical attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Let me remind you:

Israel does not have the type of bombs necessary to penetrated hardened Iranian facilities - the question is if the US will provide them.

The current war effort isn't aimed at hardened Iranian facilities.

Now, there's a lot about Iran's nuclear facilities that I don't know, such as exactly how hardened they are. But I feel that I can assert with confidence that the number of such facilities they have is smaller than the number of tunnels and bunkers that Hezbollah and Hamas have. So the hypothetical scenario you were talking about isn't equivalent to the "current war effort".

So once again I ask: how do you know that Israel doesn't have the type of bombs necessary to penetrate hardened Iranian facilities? I think we can reasonably assume that Israel doesn't have the MOP, but how do you know that the BLU-109 and GBU-28 are not sufficient to penetrate these facilities, or that they do not have sufficient quantities of these munitions to accomplish the job?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

There's no way that was a nuke test. If Iran tests a nuke, it's going to be underground. It's not that hard to bury a nuke, and avoiding the fallout is desirable enough that even crazy fascists like North Korea do it that way. Above ground tests had some use in the very early days when we didn't know what the blasts did, but everyone knows that part well enough, there's no point anymore.

Most likely correct.


But it is a known strategy for regimes that want others to believe they have a nuke to blow up a ton of explosives underground in order to create doubt.

North Korea has done this more than once, if I remember correctly.

 

[Ziggurat]

Most likely correct.


But it is a known strategy for regimes that want others to believe they have a nuke to blow up a ton of explosives underground in order to create doubt.

North Korea has done this more than once, if I remember correctly.

Sure, but a faked nuke is also going to be done underground. Do it above ground and it's going to be easy to verify that it wasn't really a nuke, which would then defeat the purpose of trying to fake it.

This is also assuming that there even was an explosion. Iran is denying it, though that's not a guarantee either. But I don't see any reliable confirmations of an explosion yet, seems mostly second-hand reports, so take the whole thing with a grain of salt.

 

[theprestige]

I guess what I want to know is, what kind of explosion was reported. A fireball in the sky is probably not a nuke test. A massive thunderous rumble from somewhere over the horizon, followed by a massive dust plume, might well be a nuke test.

 

[webfusion]

Huge Explosions inside Iran will be coming along in due course, courtesy of IAF.

 

[theprestige]

Looks like the IAF is targeting Hez offices in downtown Damascus now.

 

[dudalb]

Huge Explosions inside Iran will be coming along in due course, courtesy of IAF.

I doubt it. This will be symbolic strike like las time.

 

[dudalb]

Looks like the IAF is targeting Hez offices in downtown Damascus now.

This might be an escalation, given Assad's strong support by Putin.
And that is the danger here. it could easily escalate, without anybody actually wanting to.

 

[theprestige]

I doubt it. This will be symbolic strike like las time.

Seems like Israel is too busy delivering real strikes on Iran's proxy army, to bother with symbolic strikes on Iran.

 

[webfusion]

Looks like the IAF is targeting Hez offices in downtown Damascus now.

Maybe that is a good reason that the remaining de-facto Hezbollah leadership (with pretty much all the top guys removed) is now pleading for an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1huyrz1ye

This is a desperate request born out of the group's difficult circumstances and may even suggest a tacit admission of defeat.

 

[dudalb]

Seems like Israel is too busy delivering real strikes on Iran's proxy army, to bother with symbolic strikes on Iran.

ALso more effective.
Truth is a silver bullter strike on Iran Nuclear Program is impossible, given how well dispersed it is
Taking it out with one strike is pure Hollywood crap, literally. Don't get me started on how silly much of 'TOp Gun 2"Maverick" was beginning with a guy in at least his mid 50's leading a air strike......

 

[webfusion]

This might be an escalation, given Assad's strong support by Putin.
And that is the danger here. it could easily escalate, without anybody actually wanting to.

HAMAS wants it to. Unquestionably.
That was their initial goal and it remains so.

Iran at this point is satisifed with the tensions that exist.
And the ayatollahs of Tehran also are holding their collective breaths that Trump is defeated in a few weeks.

Hezbollah is taking whatever potshots they can at this point, as they sue for a withdrawal of IDF and a ceasefire.