Is ESP More Probable Than Advanced Alien Life?

Fudbucker said:
I already did. If X is logically possible, then X possibly exists. X could be anything that's logically coherent. ESP and alien life are logically possible. Therefore, they possibly exist.

Physical possibility is another matter, although both ESP and alien life might be physically impossible. If Earth is the only planet where the conditions for life are possible, then alien life is physically impossible.
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Is ESP logically possible according to you? If so, why?
 
Daylightstar said:
Is it possible that a fairy rides that black hole and lands on you instead?

E.T.A.: I mean, that this fairy intentionally lands the black hole on you.
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Yes, that is possible. It's possible some god exists that likes fairies and wants to use one to hit you with a black hole. It's possible fairies are messing with our instruments every time we try to observe them.

Getting back to the discussion, both alien life and ESP possibly exist.

Which is more probable? Why?
 
Fudbucker said:
I've made several claims:

Alien life is possible (it might not even exist).

ESP is possible (again, it might not exist)

The probability of alien life existing is the same as the probability of ESP existing. In modal terms, I'm claiming the set of possible worlds that contain alien life is equal to the set of possible worlds where ESP occurs.
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I would disagree. It might be considered nit picking though. There is one example of life evolving. That shows that it is at least possible that at least one other time life can evolve.

For ESP to be equal in probability, you would need at least one proven case.

Life has 1 data point. ESP has 0 data points. 1 is greater than 0. However, in order to calculate the probability of life elsewhere, you need more than 1 data point. So while the probability is higher, it is unknown and impossible to calculate how much higher.
 
Daylightstar said:
Is ESP logically possible according to you? If so, why?
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Because ESP isn't logically contradictory. You can claim that it is, but I would like to see the argument for why, for example, reading someone's mind is logically impossible.
 
Daylightstar said:
Is it possible that Santa Clause really exists, according to you?
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Of course, but it's a trivial point. It's possible there are little green elves that disappear as soon as we try to observe them. It's possible that we're boltzmann brains that just popped into existence. It's possible we're in a simulation and the simulator tossed in Santa Claus.

That's why asserting possibility is a weak claim. Anything you can imagine is possible.

But assigning a probability to a claim is much much harder. I can't just say ESP and alien life are equally probable. THAT has to be argued for.
 
Fudbucker said:
Yes, that is possible. It's possible some god exists that likes fairies and wants to use one to hit you with a black hole. It's possible fairies are messing with our instruments every time we try to observe them.

Getting back to the discussion, both alien life and ESP possibly exist.

Which is more probable? Why?
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We're right in the middle of the discussion.
Also, I asked you why:
Daylightstar said:
Is ESP logically possible according to you? If so, why?
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You've now added a god to fairies and ESP as (according to you) logically possible.
I'll ask you again, what according to you makes ESP logically possible?
 
Fudbucker said:
Of course, but it's a trivial point. It's possible there are little green elves that disappear as soon as we try to observe them. It's possible that we're boltzmann brains that just popped into existence. It's possible we're in a simulation and the simulator tossed in Santa Claus.

That's why asserting possibility is a weak claim. Anything you can imagine is possible.

But assigning a probability to a claim is much much harder. I can't just say ESP and alien life are equally probable. THAT has to be argued for.
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What makes them logically possible?
 
Red Baron Farms said:
I would disagree. It might be considered nit picking though. There is one example of life evolving. That shows that it is at least possible that at least one other time life can evolve.
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Right, but to make the leap to alien life, you need to fine one case for that.

For ESP to be equal in probability, you would need at least one proven case.
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I really struggled with this one. Alien life exists in the set of "life", which we know exists. ESP abilities don't exist in a similar set. I keep tossing this one back and forth in my mind.

Is the lack of surety about of ESP abilities that much a knock on the probability of ESP existing? I keep coming back to dark energy, dark matter, other universes, and all the other weird stuff that's happened over the years.

That's the strongest argument against my claim that ESP and aliens are equally likely. I'll have to think about it.

Life has 1 data point. ESP has 0 data points. 1 is greater than 0. However, in order to calculate the probability of life elsewhere, you need more than 1 data point. So while the probability is higher, it is unknown and impossible to calculate how much higher.
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That's putting it well. Gotta think about it.
 
Daylightstar said:
Imagine a planet being found with only apes on it and scientists saying meh they're just apes, planet is not interesting.
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There was a Star Trek where Kirk and Spock are walking along with tall trees visible in the background and Kirk report "no signs of life".

Yeah, I know what he meant.
 
Fudbucker said:
The burden of proof is on the person claiming X is impossible.
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No. That is, again, the exact opposite of how this actually works.

The burden of proof is on the person making a claim that goes against current understanding. ESP is absolutely against the current understanding of... essentially everything. Biology, chemistry, electromagnetism, quantum field theory. They ALL say it's wrong.
 
Fudbucker said:
Daylight, is there any evidence that a wandering black hole will intersect the solar system in the next ten years?

Does the complete lack of evidence make such an event possible or impossible?

Hmm....
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I know aliens and ESP are real because I am receiving info from green ground grubs living on a planet around a double star.
 
Fudbucker said:
I've made several claims:

Alien life is possible (it might not even exist).

ESP is possible (again, it might not exist)

The probability of alien life existing is the same as the probability of ESP existing. In modal terms, I'm claiming the set of possible worlds that contain alien life is equal to the set of possible worlds where ESP occurs.
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Alien life would not violate any laws of physics while ESP would, so I would say that alien life is more possible than the entire structure of physics having to be changed.
 
tsig said:
Alien life would not violate any laws of physics while ESP would, so I would say that alien life is more possible than the entire structure of physics having to be changed.
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What laws of physics would it violate?

Would faster than light travel violate laws of physics?
 
ehcks said:
No. That is, again, the exact opposite of how this actually works.

The burden of proof is on the person making a claim that goes against current understanding. ESP is absolutely against the current understanding of... essentially everything. Biology, chemistry, electromagnetism, quantum field theory. They ALL say it's wrong.
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Source?
 
Fudbucker said:
Because ESP isn't logically contradictory. You can claim that it is, but I would like to see the argument for why, for example, reading someone's mind is logically impossible.
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There's no known mechanism to transfer thoughts from one mind to another. In the real world people don't go around reading others minds this is strong evidence that it doesn't exist.
 
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