Inflation

[psionl0]

Do you think people struggling to feed their kids give a ◊◊◊◊ about the price of coffee?

If they are coffee drinkers then most definitely - especially if the price of coffee means the difference between having a cup of coffee or going without altogether.

 

[The Atheist]

Callous bastard talking about his recreational profiting without even working while people are struggling to feed their kids, amirite?

Nah, I give away a lot more than the piddly amounts I play with on shares.

If they are coffee drinkers then most definitely - especially if the price of coffee means the difference between having a cup of coffee or going without altogether.

I can make 100 cups of coffee from instant coffee packs at a cost of 6 cents for the coffee. Hot water, milf & sugar are extra.

They do not need to give up. They can stop drinking $8 cups of it. No hardship involved.

 

[Thermal]

I can make 100 cups of coffee from instant coffee packs at a cost of 6 cents for the coffee.

Bite your tongue..That instant brown water is not coffee any more than baking soda is cocaine.

They do not need to give up. They can stop drinking $8 cups of it. No hardship involved.

Depends on whether the coffee is balancing your chemicals to make you bearable, or is an indulgent splurge.

I've never spent $8 on a coffee, and never would. Some things have a cap on their value, and exceeding it puts you in the sucker category.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

You provide a vague "hey man, there was this weather in two countries" level of explanation, which does not even approach quantifying the outscale spike.

How does that explain Kona coffee price spiking, for example? Those beans are grown exclusively in Hawaii, not subject to any of the vague handwaving causes listed?

A detailed explanation is far too much work for this thread. If you really want to know then do your own research, but suffice to say that 'there was this weather in two countries' is not the nothing burger you imply. Bad weather can totally destroy crops leading to a massive supply shortfall.

Coffee demand is relatively inelastic because people are addicted to it. That means the price will vary wildly as supply changes, which is exactly what we see. To determine whether some other factor like 'they are jacking because they can' is involved you have to run the numbers. If normal market forces can't explain it you have an argument. I bet you won't though - you just do what everybody else does - assert that price gouging is the reason with no evidence. That might work in other forums, but not here.

 

[The Atheist]

Bite your tongue..That instant brown water is not coffee any more than baking soda is cocaine.

Them's fighting words! Instant coffee was invented in NZ.

Depends on whether the coffee is balancing your chemicals to make you bearable, or is an indulgent splurge.

That's kinda my point. If you need a fix, it's cheap. If you don't mind paying five bucks, I don't have a problem with that.

I've never spent $8 on a coffee, and never would. Some things have a cap on their value, and exceeding it puts you in the sucker category.

I've spent more than that, but not often. It's no better than a $4 cup from McCafe, but I'm not going to invite a CEO to flaming Maccas.

 

[Thermal]

A detailed explanation is far too much work for this thread.

No, like virtually any issue of its kind, it can be summarized pretty easily. We are talking about massive changes, not trying to explain a 2% hike. Big broad brush explanations for huge changes are easy, just because of their sheer magnitude.

{Eta: watch how simple- Vietnam had a bit of weather for the last 6 years and the entire country is currently under 10 meters of water. Most people don't know that Vietnam supplies 75% of the world's coffee beans, so this created a massive global shortage, which made every other bean supplier producer say "well that had nothing to do with me, but imma jack my prices up now bitch, just because I can". By the way, there aint been no ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ coffee shortage, with mother ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ jonesing outside the shuttered up Starbucks. Demand is more thsn adequately being met}

If you really want to know then do your own research,

I brought up coffee because, as i said, it was one of the very few commodities that i recall the exact prices across years. The actual retailer wrote me, ss i said, explaining that it was nothing more than following global inflation trends. I have considered that claim, and determined that it is a lie. Retail pricing has not generally ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ tripled across the board.

but suffice to say that 'there was this weather in two countries' is not the nothing burger you imply. Bad weather can totally destroy crops leading to a massive supply shortfall.

It can. That does not make a vague handwave at the weather any more a robust explanation. Maybe the opening statement where it is then shown how it ends up being triple the cost, but standalone it's weak ass T.

{Eta: when someone says "yeah there was this weather, you know, so that explains it all. Good enough, yeah?", they are either not very sharp, or were predisposed to accepting any explanation right out of the gate. Which is also not particularly sharp, so... there's that. You have to actually keep connecting the dots to show how it ended up in ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ tripling, or you're just blowing smoke}

Coffee demand is relatively inelastic because people are addicted to it.

Or just like it as a relatively inexpensive luxury. I think that packs more punch than suggesting we are a planet of addicts in back alleys giving handjobs for a soy latte.

That means the price will vary wildly as supply changes, which is exactly what we see. To determine whether some other factor like 'they are jacking because they can' is involved you have to run the numbers. If normal market forces can't explain it you have an argument. I bet you won't though - you just do what everybody else does - assert that price gouging is the reason with no evidence. That might work in other forums, but not here.

Try that shoe on for size yourself- "bad weather over in 'Nam, dude" is a piss poor number crunchng, n'est-ce pas? Does that pack evidentiary soundness? Cuz it sounds pretty meaningless from here.

 

[Thermal]

Them's fighting words! Instant coffee was invented in NZ.

That's because you are too nice to enslave entire foreign economies... er, I mean negotiate fair trade deals... in order to get The Spice.

That's kinda my point. If you need a fix, it's cheap. If you don't mind paying five bucks, I don't have a problem with that.

Yeah, I get that. My bitch is that I don't ask for much. No top shelf bourbon or anything, just some decent coffee to keep me focused at a bearable price. Spending $21US for less than a kilo takes the fun out of it, when I was just paying freaking $6US. The ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ weather wasn't that bad in ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ Vietnam.

I've spent more than that, but not often. It's no better than a $4 cup from McCafe, but I'm not going to invite a CEO to flaming Maccas.

I've admittedly become more of a coffee snob since discovering the gourmet ◊◊◊◊, and stuff from McD or DD is no longer palatable. I guess I just have to polish the monocle and pay the new normal. Just seems like we could... you know, deliver some Freedom somewhere and get this ◊◊◊◊ straightened out?

 

[Thermal]

Hot water, milf & sugar are extra.

They usually are.

 

[psionl0]

Nah, I give away a lot more than the piddly amounts I play with on shares.



I can make 100 cups of coffee from instant coffee packs at a cost of 6 cents for the coffee. Hot water, milf & sugar are extra.

They do not need to give up. They can stop drinking $8 cups of it. No hardship involved.

How Marie Antoinettish of you.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Luxury is a very relative and personal experience.

A famous coffee chain fancy cup can just be the affordable equivalent of a lobster dinner or weekend trip for others - an indulgence that makes it easier to get through the day, assuring yourself that you are still in the same Class as all the other, probably more successful people who also get their coffee there.

I only get coffee to go if I am driving long-distance and it's caffeine, not culinary experience I'm looking for

 

[Roger Ramjets]

No, like virtually any issue of its kind, it can be summarized pretty easily. We are talking about massive changes, not trying to explain a 2% hike. Big broad brush explanations for huge changes are easy, just because of their sheer magnitude.

Green coffee update (September 2025) and what it means for Australia

In September 2025, ICE Arabica futures jumped to over USD 4.20 per pound. This rise was driven by a combination of poor harvests and a major policy shock. The United States applied a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, sending ripple effects through global markets. At the same time, frost damage and dry conditions in Brazil reduced yields. Together, these events pushed futures higher and reintroduced volatility that many thought was easing.

Brazil’s Arabica harvest is lower again this year. Frost and prolonged dry conditions have stunted yields, producing smaller beans and fewer bags. Brazil once delivered close to 50 million bags of Arabica. Now it is estimated to be closer to 45 million [10% less]. Each poor harvest reduces global supply, tightens inventories and keeps prices under pressure.

Vietnam’s Robusta output is stronger, but demand is even stronger. Good rains and farmer investment have lifted yields, helping Robusta production recover. Yet global consumption is at record highs. New demand from markets like China, alongside continued growth in Europe and North America, is absorbing every extra bag of coffee that enters the market. Increased supply on its own cannot restore balance when consumption is climbing faster.

Add to that higher shipping rates, expensive fuel and rising domestic overheads, and the landed cost of coffee is pushed up even further. These pressures are not temporary spikes but part of a longer cycle of structural cost inflation. What was once called a perfect storm now looks more like a permanent crisis. Weather volatility, geopolitical trade shocks and fragile supply chains are no longer occasional disruptions. They are becoming the normal backdrop to doing business in coffee.

The relatively small change in global supply hides big variations. Vietnam's Robusta exports dropped from ~2.8 million bags in March 2025 to 1.3 million bags in September, a 54% reduction. Brazil's Robusta exports dropped by an even greater percentage, from ~0.95 million bags in October 2024 to a mere 0.16 million in April 2025, a reduction of 83% (all data from here).

The markets are supposed to smooth out this wildly varying supply, but with more uncertainty comes more volatility. Things like unexpected tariffs and rising fertilizer and freight costs due to wars that shouldn't have lasted this long make it worse. Couple that to rising demand and you have extreme pressure.

But it didn't have to be this way. If the US had a communist government it could simply set the retail price of coffee to the 'correct' amount, and then coffee addicts would have to queue for days, weeks, or years to get their fix. Because without a free market shortages would be inevitable.

 

[Brainster]

A detailed explanation is far too much work for this thread. If you really want to know then do your own research, but suffice to say that 'there was this weather in two countries' is not the nothing burger you imply. Bad weather can totally destroy crops leading to a massive supply shortfall.

Coffee demand is relatively inelastic because people are addicted to it. That means the price will vary wildly as supply changes, which is exactly what we see. To determine whether some other factor like 'they are jacking because they can' is involved you have to run the numbers. If normal market forces can't explain it you have an argument. I bet you won't though - you just do what everybody else does - assert that price gouging is the reason with no evidence. That might work in other forums, but not here.

It's so much easier to blame it on Big Coffee. When I saw his post, I went and checked the price movements of stocks of companies with significant interests in coffee for the last five years:

Starbucks: Stock closed at 114.50 on October 18, 2021. Closed at 92.29 today.
Dutch Brothers: Stock closed at 73.24 on October 25, 2021 (first week on the NYSE). Closed at 37.28 today.
J.M. Smucker (Owns Folgers, Cafe Bustelo and the rights to Dunkin in supermarkets). Stock closed at 122.97 on October 18, 2021. Closed today at 120.02.
How about Keurig/Dr Pepper, a company that has certainly been accused of extortionate pricing? Closed 10/18/21 at 34.66. Closed today at 32.75.

 

[dirtywick]

i'll try and explain it as i understand it.

coffee is also a crop that you can't grow anywhere, only about 40 countries on earth produce it, so these handful of countries that experience severe weather can disrupt a significant percentage of the world's supply. most of them are located in south/central america, africa, and islands in asia. so when you say so what, brazil and a few other south american countries experienced a supply shortage due so severe weather, why is coffee in hawaii more expensive? 30% of the world's coffee comes out of brazil, and hawaii supplies about 0.05% of the world's coffee, since it's a small place, and brazil is a huge place. a disruption of the brazilian supply is a significant effect on the price including the available hawaiian coffee which must be purchased as an alternative to meet demand.

 

[Thermal]

i'll try and explain it as i understand it.

coffee is also a crop that you can't grow anywhere,...

Ok, lets assume that we all made it through high school and understand very basic economics and supply chain impacts, m'kay? We are talking about a highly unusual outscale effect, not a garden variety market fluctuation which is explainable with everyday examples of faraway conditions that impact local prices on the shelves.

why is coffee in hawaii more expensive? 30% of the world's coffee comes out of brazil, and hawaii supplies about 0.05% of the world's coffee, since it's a small place, and brazil is a huge place. a disruption of the brazilian supply is a significant effect on the price including the available hawaiian coffee which must be purchased as an alternative to meet demand.

Okay. This is the situation as you understand it? I see major flaws. The first is this repeated claim of a shortage. Do we agree that a shortage is when supply cannot keep up with demand, like when we experienced a legit shortage of disposable paper goods at the beginning of the pandemic? We have had no such shortage of coffee in the time frame we are discussing. Starbucks are not shuttering the windows. The shelves are not bare. There is no ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ shortage. We are goddamned drowning in coffee. What issues that have been cited are the kind of production shortfalls that sometimes occur in any market sampling. They do not affect the costs as wildly as the one we are talking about.

You spend half your reply talking about how Kona is affected. Do you seriously believe that nobody can find coffee, so they are forced to switch to Kona? Bold move, Cotton. Also pure bull ◊◊◊◊. Kona has decreased production and sales in the time frame we are talking about, yet their prices are right up there with everyone else.

My take on all this is that while they are experiencing typical production problems, this outscale price hike is due to two factors: Brasil, the big Kahuna of coffee production, is under a whopping tariff (other bean producing countries aren't). The other is another high school level economic principle- they are charging what they market will bear. Coffee is wildly popular, with no signs of slowing down that I see. So why sell cheap, when people will pay more? Ttis explanation fits the facts far better than your posit that the ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ planet can't find any coffee, so has to turn to Kona to fill the planetary void, lol. Change my view.

 

[theprestige]

Not only are cars getting more expensive, but they're also getting ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊, too. And not just cars. Prices are going up and quality is going down pretty much across the board.

 

[Frank Newgent]

[Brasil, the big Kahuna of coffee production, is under a whopping tariff (other bean producing countries aren't). The other is another high school level economic principle- they are charging what they market will bear. Coffee is wildly popular, with no signs of slowing down that I see. So why sell cheap, when people will pay more? Ttis explanation fits the facts far better than your posit that the ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ planet can't find any coffee, so has to turn to Kona to fill the planetary void, lol. Change my view.

Who is "they"?

For what it's worth there are currently no US tariffs on either Brazilian or Colombian beans.

 

[Thermal]

Who is "they"?

For what it's worth there are currently no US tariffs on either Brazilian or Colombian beans.

Yes, but Brasil is the largest global producer and was under a huge tarrif during the indicated time frame, lifted late last year, and it takes time to see the price come back down on the shelves, and yada yada yada. Although conceded, you're right I thought Brasil was still under tarrif. Thanks for the correction.

Eta: the short life span of the 50% tarrif really doesn't do much to explain the multi year trend, but it is at least something that could be pointed to as a wildly outscale cost multiplier

Mo Eta: for all this talk about Vietnam's weather tripling prices, 97% of their exports are Robusta beans. The States import 97% Arabica beans, with hardly any Robusta in the market.

 

[dirtywick]

Ok, lets assume that we all made it through high school and understand very basic economics and supply chain impacts, m'kay? We are talking about a highly unusual outscale effect, not a garden variety market fluctuation which is explainable with everyday examples of faraway conditions that impact local prices on the shelves.

Okay. This is the situation as you understand it? I see major flaws. The first is this repeated claim of a shortage. Do we agree that a shortage is when supply cannot keep up with demand, like when we experienced a legit shortage of disposable paper goods at the beginning of the pandemic? We have had no such shortage of coffee in the time frame we are discussing. Starbucks are not shuttering the windows. The shelves are not bare. There is no ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ shortage. We are goddamned drowning in coffee. What issues that have been cited are the kind of production shortfalls that sometimes occur in any market sampling. They do not affect the costs as wildly as the one we are talking about.

You spend half your reply talking about how Kona is affected. Do you seriously believe that nobody can find coffee, so they are forced to switch to Kona? Bold move, Cotton. Also pure bull ◊◊◊◊. Kona has decreased production and sales in the time frame we are talking about, yet their prices are right up there with everyone else.

My take on all this is that while they are experiencing typical production problems, this outscale price hike is due to two factors: Brasil, the big Kahuna of coffee production, is under a whopping tariff (other bean producing countries aren't). The other is another high school level economic principle- they are charging what they market will bear. Coffee is wildly popular, with no signs of slowing down that I see. So why sell cheap, when people will pay more? Ttis explanation fits the facts far better than your posit that the ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ planet can't find any coffee, so has to turn to Kona to fill the planetary void, lol. Change my view.

i linked an article earlier about a coffee shortage. here are several more. there seems to be a coffee supply shortage due to climate change effecting price and rising demand, particularly the areas of the world where the most coffee comes from. your take seems to be misinformed

A global coffee price spike is about to drip into your mug

Disruptive weather linked to climate change has dented coffee bean supplies, which industry experts warn could soon leave a bitter taste in consumers’ mouths.

www.nbcnews.com

https://coffeehero.com.au/blogs/news/the-global-coffee-boom-navigating-world-demand-and-securing-your-perfect-cup?srsltid=AU7gw4V80GVveDGlhOQpBCiUTMVx-zwwiGD4r2grz8IT8ZzUj9dZ05g8

https://www.npr.org/2025/09/30/nx-s1-5553625/coffee-day-farmers-industry-climate-change-labor-stenophylla

Coffee-growing countries becoming too hot to cultivate beans, analysis finds

Five countries responsible for 75% of world’s coffee supply record average of 57 extra days of coffee-harming heat a year

www.theguardian.com

Why is Colombian coffee hard to find?

This article unravels the reasons behind the scarcity of Colombian coffee in the global market and how the exceptional quality and traditional cultivation techniques make this product so coveted.

colombiancoffee.us

as far as changing your view, that’s the last i have to say on the matter. feel free to form your own opinion

 

[Thermal]

i linked an article earlier about a coffee shortage.

You did. It wasnt loosely addressing anything we were talking about.

here are several more.

So I see. From the first:

"The overall cost of drip coffee has risen every year since 2021, when it was $0.12 per cup, according to market researchers at NIQ. They estimated one cup of drip coffee cost $0.18 at the start of this year"

...and that's where I'm calling bull ◊◊◊◊, and exactly what I said to prompt all this. The claims of inflation are wildly out of synch with the actual costs.

Your first article says that across the time frame I indicated, drip prices went from 12 cents to 18 cents per cup. That's a 50% increase, yes? My experience has been that the number is more like a 300% increase. The other data provided indicates at least double, and more.

there seems to be a coffee supply shortage due to climate change effecting price and rising demand, particularly the areas of the world where the most coffee comes from.

So i keep hearing. Over and over. It doesnt address my issue. Its a canned answer.

your take seems to be misinformed

Lol, says the guy making up random fairy tales about Kona to explain this.

as far as changing your view, that’s the last i have to say on the matter. feel free to form your own opinion

So I gather. I was just interested if anyone else sees the same downplaying of inflation, with coffee as a jumping off point.

 

[dirtywick]

well let me know what you figure out