Yes. I foresaw all that has come to pass, but as a possibility, not a certainty. I warned EU-national colleagues that their right to live here would be in serious jeopardy if Scotland was dragged out of the EU as part of the UK, whereas there would be no such problem with independence - the probability was of a negotiated transition into the EU on independence day, but failing that there was no question that the government of an independent Scotland wouldn't grant them the right to remain. (I don't know that they listened - the No campaign was busy saying that the only way to secure Scotland's EU membership was to vote No. Now they're saying that we voted in 2014 knowing that there would be a referendum and that a Leave vote was likely!)
But I didn't know or believe that any of that was definitely going to happen. None of us did - the No campaign is rewriting history again. I thought avoiding the possibility was another good reason to vote Yes, but deep down I thought there probably wouldn't even be a referendum. I thought Cameron wouldn't get an overall majority and the LibDems would stop him, or failing that, that he himself would manage to wriggle out of the commitment once he was safely back in Downing Street. I thought if he had to go ahead, he'd put a super-majority requirement on it.
Even when none of that happened, I still didn't think enough people were daft enough to vote Leave. Even with the absolutely disastrous toxic poisonous campaign, I thought sheer self-preservation would win through. But it didn't, and the precise scenario I'd been warning might transpire, as a dystopian possibility, is all too real.
Sadly and rather worryingly coincidentally I am now in a similar position I was in during the Scottish referendum.
I can now say a little bit more in regards to what was happening then. I was in the process with an ex-ex-pat Scottish technology millionaire (almost a billionaire at today's stock price) in setting up a new development studio in Scotland. This would have provided about a hundred jobs and if all went well lots of tax revenue for the governments. As part of the plans we had identified a number of key hires, and two of these were from outside the UK - one was from Canada and one was from France. And both of those were very reluctant to relocate to Scotland based on the sole matter of whether Scotland would be in the UK or not. We had numerous meetings with Scottish officials up to minister level and all of them (of course) could not give any reassurance with regards to Scotland's place in the world after a yes result. So in the end the whole enterprise came to naught.
And today I find myself involved in a wholesale restructuring of the European operations of a major developer and the uncertainties are giving me the same headaches. Because of the uncertainty of the UK position what is most likely to happen is large number of redundancies over the next two years and a holding back of investment in the UK and the rest of Europe until the dust settles.
It's a pity when a period of necessary change impacts on particular enterprises. It's one thing knowing rationally that once the deed is done suddenly the way becomes smooth, but another to convince outsiders of that. But I think you can see from my point of view that the long term future and stability of my country is more important to me than 100 particular jobs or one specific enterprise.
Now, instead of having the influx of investment and infrastructure we would have expected on becoming an independent country (the opportunities in Edinburgh alone coming from its transformation to a major international capital are eye-watering), and the control over our own assets and resources that would have allowed us to trim the economy and budget to our own needs, we're stuck in this toxic relationship where even the short-term promises of jobs that were made by the No campaign three years ago have been broken. (Shipbuilding, tax offices, military bases, more - I'm sure someone has a list. All given as reasons for staying in the union, all gone.)
The vision of Scotland as an independent country is a bright one, but it's a change. It was scotched by a campaign of fear that said, hold on to what you've got, you never know, but we'll see you right. I know people who focussed solely on possible negatives for them personally over the first couple of years and couldn't be persuaded that the opportunities exceeded the risks, and I suppose that's natural.
But here we are. We can't go back and rerun 2014 with precognition. We can go forward to the new referendum thinking more about the big picture, or we can retreat into "this is all pretty awful but maybe if I bury my head in the sand it'll work out OK." We'll need to see how that pans out.
