Koch aside, you make quite an unjustified leap from the idea that a conscious entity could be composed of abacus beads or electrons, to the idea that any old collection of abacus beads or electrons must be conscious. That's like saying if a tuna salad is only a particular kind of arrangement of ordinary atoms (without any requirement of ineffable non-material tuna salad nature), all collections of matter are tuna salads.
I don't think you can brush aside Koch's comments so easily. Koch is an expert that has spent decades studying consciousness. For someone like Koch to speculate there might a conscious field in the universe, similar to a Higgs field, has to be taken seriously. It's like one of the top climatologists in the world claiming the Earth's warming is due to dark energy fluctuations.
But putting Koch aside, yeah, whatever is being moved around (rocks, electrons, water molecules) has to be part of a sufficiently complex system that is arranged in the right way. But that begs an obvious question: why does one arrangement of neurons (and their corresponding activity) correspond to the pain of stubbing your toe, while another arrangement corresponds to the pleasure of eating a a nice tuna salad.
In the comic I linked about moving rocks around and simulating a universe of conscious beings, the rocks are moved a certain way, but why should one particular pattern of rock movement be more significant than another? Why does rock movement pattern 1100101010010101010101010101 produce a moment of consciousness while pattern 0010100101001010010100010101 doesn't produce anything?
Also, it's worth noting that in the comic, it's a person moving the rocks around with some pattern in mind, but of course a person isn't required, because whatever pattern a person comes up with can be duplicated by a random rock placing machine, given an infinite amount of time (or rock movers). What that means is that there is the possibility that a shifting sand dune (for example), just by random chance, could reproduce a pattern of sand movement that corresponds exactly to a specific pattern of rock movement that is supposed to produce some instant of consciousness.
Now, what are the odds that a specific sand dune (or rock slide or cloudburst or bunch of dust specks) could be conscious? Unknown, but the real possibility that flashes of consciousness are occurring all around us is a startling one, and one you wouldn't expect on materialist model. The materialistic account of consciousness is that it is something brains do, and you can't get much further away from a brain than a bunch of moving sand particles.
Consciousness is something brains do, and moving rocks around isn't remotely similar to what brains do, so why should we entertain the notion that consciousness can be produced by moving a bunch of rocks around "in the right way"? Where's the evidence for that claim? What's the causal mechanism whereby a bunch of rocks being moved around produces a simulation of a universe with conscious beings?
Only certain very specific arrangements of rocks or other things have been shown to be computationally universal, which as far as we know is a requirement for consciousness (and a very minimal one at that, like saying that a riot must at least have one person present). Those systems have certain features in common, such as evolution based on nonlinear threshold-based state changes, sufficient numbers of simultaneous independent elements to represent a set of symbols, and ability to both sustain stable configurations and alter them. That leaves out your meteor swarms and piles of sand particles.
How so? Let's take an instance of rock movement that corresponds to a moment in the simulated universe (I'll use binary, but it really doesn't matter). According to the comic, if I move the rocks around in a certain way, I can simulate a universe of conscious beings. So let's suppose that rock pattern 1001010010100010101001010011100...1 (put however many rocks you want in the ellipsis) produces a nanosecond of simulated universe time.
Why can't that be duplicated by a random process with another substrate? If that pattern of rock movement produces a nanosecond of a simulated universe, why can't we do the same with sand particles? Or water molecules? Is there something special about rocks? To avoid special pleading,
any unique movement of particles should produce a moment of a simulated universe, as long as the particles match the movement of the rocks "in the right way" ("the right way" is whatever particular arrangement of rocks produces some instance of a simulated universe) .
And if that's not convincing, then forget the comic. Do you agree that we can make a mechanical brain that is the functional equivalent of a working organic brain? Would't the functionally equivalent mechanical brain be conscious, no matter what it's made out of? Transistors? Valves? Light switches? What is so special about organic substrates?
What these mere-lifeless-rocks kind of arguments leave out is the scale of computational complexity involved. It's one thing to show that a very large arrangements of track and railroad switches (and some additional mechanisms that can flip a given switch as a result of the train passing a given point), with a single train running along it, can be computationally universal, and therefore conscious in theory. Because of scale, that doesn't mean that there's any possibility for your local railroad yard to become (or turn out to be) conscious.
Right, but in the comic, there really are no mechanisms, other than a guy moving rocks around. Are you saying that's not enough to simulate a universe with conscious beings? Because if it is enough, then you don't need trains and switches. You can scale the whole thing down exponentially, so that the quadrillions of drops in a rain shower could randomly move the right way to produce an instant of consciousness.
But to take your example of a railroad, the only thing stopping it from being conscious is scale, correct? So if you had a large enough railroad, and arranged it the right way, it should become conscious. Doesn't that seem a little strange? Again, I go back to the only thing we know can produce consciousness: an organic brain. The same objections for railroad-consciousness apply as rock-consciousness: trains moving on railroads aren't anything like what an organic brain does, so why should we even entertain the idea that a railroad (even if sufficiently complex and arranged the right way) can become conscious? And if it become conscious, what would it feel? It has no nerves, so how could it feel pain or pleasure? Would it be murder to dismantle it?
To actually make a universal railroad machine emulate the simplest processors we use in present day computers, you'd need an array of track the size of a continent. To scale that up to the computational capability of something like IBM's Watson, the entire earth's surface would be far from sufficient for all the tracks; the surface of a sphere the size of earth's orbit around the sun might do. But actual consciousness probably requires more computation than that, so Saturn's orbit might do instead. (That would be way more railroad switches than neurons in the brain, but that's because each neuron does the work of many thousand switches.)
It's not the scale that's the issue. It's the assertion that a railroad, no matter how big and complex, could become conscious. At what point would it become conscious? How many miles of track would be required? How many trains? These are the same questions we can ask about brains (e.g., how many neurons are required to produce a conscious experience), but at least we know collections of neurons can produce consciousness. Where is the evidence that collections of trains and tracks can do the same?
This system would also be extremely slow. To see it do anything interesting, you'd have to speed up the train (or slow down your perception of time) so that the train zips from switch to switch and from one side of the solar system to another far too fast to see; you'd instead see switches changing everywhere nearly all at once, like neurons firing in a brain. Then, maybe, the consciousness could occur at a suitable time scale for you to interact with it, especially if you also shrink the sphere down to maybe the size of a basketball.
Yeah, it wouldn't be a quick-thinker, but it's the possibility of a railroad system being a thinker at all that's a problem for materialism.
That's more or less what you'd have to do to make a railroad system conscious. But it doesn't much resemble a train with a few tracks and switches any more, does it? What you'd actually have would be a sphere covered with complex sub-microscopic patterns of incomprehensibly vast complexity, where you can barely perceive (using sensitive instruments) hundreds of trillions of switches opening and closing in constant waves of back-and-forth chatter. Much like we see when we study a brain. Brains are more efficient, though, and can therefore operate at the time scale we're familiar with without the radical slowing down/speeding up. (No one said railroad tracks and switches were a good engineering choice for building a conscious entity.)
Right, the railroad brain would have to be functionally equivalent to a working brain, so it would probably start to resemble one before too long. But does that mean you object to the comic I linked? In the case of the comic, it doesn't resemble a brain in any way. It's just a guy moving rocks around on an endless plain.