Hypothetical. What if Biden died in the next few months?

[Brainster]

So, you can't ******* read?

Some people around here think this forum is highly influential, and that people are using that influence to subtly affect the election. In effect, they think you're a Russian troll.

Hilarious, especially on the influence part.

 

[johnny karate]

Some people around here think this forum is highly influential, and that people are using that influence to subtly affect the election. In effect, they think you're a Russian troll.

Hilarious, especially on the influence part.

Some people around here also think this forum is populated with right-wingers and right-learners who constantly engage in bad faith arguments and false equivalencies.

 

[PitPat]

The fact that we don't know much about Harris is good.

We haven't had the President die.

She hasn't had to step in one day like Pence had to with Trump.

She hasn't had any scandals.

Actually, if you look at her Twitter feed, she says and does the right things a VP should do. She endorses the President's acts and words, meets and greets Americans, makes policy announcements.

https://x.com/kamalaharris

She just seems to be getting on with the job.

A lot can happen before now and election day, but these are pretty bad numbers.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/

Looks like something happened around Oct 2021 but I can't remember what.

 

[W.D.Clinger]

A lot can happen before now and election day, but these are pretty bad numbers.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/

Her numbers track Joe Biden's remarkably well, so her numbers might tell us less about voters' opinions of Harris than about their opinions of Biden.

Lets pretend for a moment I'm some what right.

Candidate A is generally good on policy but is clearly old and declining in his cognitive ability.
Candidate B is generally bad on policy and generally terrible but not clearly in cognitive decline.

So long as we're pretending, let's also pretend only one of those candidates was able to recite

Person, woman, man, camera, tv.​

Memorable quotations of former presidents:

FDR: “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.”
JFK: “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.”
DJT: “Person, woman, man, camera, TV.”

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) July 23, 2020​

 

[PitPat]

Her numbers track Joe Biden's remarkably well, so her numbers might tell us less about voters' opinions of Harris than about their opinions of Biden.

I had the same observation, and that scares me even more.

Would she have the sexy "it" factor like Biden to bounce back though? Maybe aviator sunglasses and muscle cars.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

The fact that we don't know much about Harris is good.

We haven't had the President die.

She hasn't had to step in one day like Pence had to with Trump.

She hasn't had any scandals.

Actually, if you look at her Twitter feed, she says and does the right things a VP should do. She endorses the President's acts and words, meets and greets Americans, makes policy announcements.

https://x.com/kamalaharris

She just seems to be getting on with the job.

VP is a weird role, because they're in a high position of potential responsibility should the POTUS die (which given our gerontocracy seems even more likely), but absent that scenario seems to do very little other than PR fluffing.

Whether or not a VP is influential and has much authority to act on their own is entirely at the President's discretion, and as far as I can tell Harris doesn't really have much sway or influence in the Biden Administration.

Given the advanced age of both presumptive candidates for the 2024 election, you'd think it might be best to have a VP candidate that is a closer copy of the presidential candidate should they ever have take over, rather than having someone that's meant shore up perceived deficiencies. Often the VP choice is a foil, within the limitations of a given partisan camp, of the presidential candidate to make the ticket more palatable (Biden was meant to be a pander to older, more conservative Dems that might be wary of young upstart Obama), which seems like the last person you'd want taking power in the event of an untimely death.

 

[PitPat]

VP is a weird role, because they're in a high position of potential responsibility should the POTUS die (which given our gerontocracy seems even more likely), but absent that scenario seems to do very little other than PR fluffing.
Whether or not a VP is influential and has much authority to act on their own is entirely at the President's discretion, and as far as I can tell Harris doesn't really have much sway or influence in the Biden Administration.

Well there is that Dick "Face-Shooter" Cheney guy. Though he was gracious enough to accept his victim's apology for him having to go through that media hassle. I'd say that's pretty powerful.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Well there is that Dick "Face-Shooter" Cheney guy. Though he was gracious enough to accept his victim's apology for him having to go through that media hassle. I'd say that's pretty powerful.

Only because President Bush decided to make him powerful. Cheney does strike me as the example of a more influential and powerful VP, but that hardly seems to be the norm.

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

This is the sort of thing I'm taliking about regarding dem blindness.

Biden is 77, average life expectancy of an American male is 74. Healthy for his age..... means he's about to die in his sleep.

Joe Biden is currently 80 years old and will be 81 if he makes it to November. Biden was born November 20, 1942

 

[TurkeysGhost]

This is the sort of thing I'm taliking about regarding dem blindness.

Biden is 77, average life expectancy of an American male is 74. Healthy for his age..... means he's about to die in his sleep.

Yeah, people of that age who seem healthy regularly have rather abrupt declines in health. The fact that Biden does not have any apparent chronic conditions does not mean that there's still not a huge risk he'll drop dead or otherwise suffer a rapid decline of health at any time.

I suppose having access to basically infinite medical care of the highest possible quality does help tilt the scales back a bit, but depending on Biden or Trump to continue to outperform the actuarial tables seems an inherently risky proposition.

 

[ahhell]

VP is a weird role, because they're in a high position of potential responsibility should the POTUS die (which given our gerontocracy seems even more likely), but absent that scenario seems to do very little other than PR fluffing.

Whether or not a VP is influential and has much authority to act on their own is entirely at the President's discretion, and as far as I can tell Harris doesn't really have much sway or influence in the Biden Administration.

Given the advanced age of both presumptive candidates for the 2024 election, you'd think it might be best to have a VP candidate that is a closer copy of the presidential candidate should they ever have take over, rather than having someone that's meant shore up perceived deficiencies. Often the VP choice is a foil, within the limitations of a given partisan camp, of the presidential candidate to make the ticket more palatable (Biden was meant to be a pander to older, more conservative Dems that might be wary of young upstart Obama), which seems like the last person you'd want taking power in the event of an untimely death.

The old joke about lieutenant governors, what's their job? Checking the obituaries to see if the governor died over night.

 

[ahhell]

Going back to Bidens age being a liability,
https://apnews.com/article/biden-age-poll-trump-2024-620e0a5cfa0039a6448f607c17c7f23e

Poll shows that 69% of Dems think Joe Biden is too old for a second term. But lest keep acting like it doesn't matter.

You can throw out what the Reps think, 3 years seems be some magic age gap for them.
More or less the same number of Dems think both Trump and Biden are too old.

As I've said, age is a wash with Biden V Trump but if by some miracle Trump isn't the Rep nominee, Bidens age is a big liability.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Going back to Bidens age being a liability,
https://apnews.com/article/biden-age-poll-trump-2024-620e0a5cfa0039a6448f607c17c7f23e

Poll shows that 69% of Dems think Joe Biden is too old for a second term. But lest keep acting like it doesn't matter.

You can throw out what the Reps think, 3 years seems be some magic age gap for them.
More or less the same number of Dems think both Trump and Biden are too old.

As I've said, age is a wash with Biden V Trump but if by some miracle Trump isn't the Rep nominee, Bidens age is a big liability.

Seems to be a recurring issue for the Republicans is that their barbs towards Biden aren't really things they can capitalize on because their own candidate is either just as bad or worse.

Trump is just as decrepit, likewise this whole "hunter biden" thing falls flat when you consider the alternative is the openly self-dealing Trump family.

A hypothetical opponent of Biden could easily score some points in contrast, but that's just a speculative exercise. Old, fat, corrupt Trump is the candidate and Biden, as deeply flawed as he is, looks fantastic by contrast.

 

[ahhell]

I don’t have a problem with it insofar that you didn’t immediately precede your hyperbolic Trump analogy with an admonishment to be realistic about Trump.

But you know what, you’ve convinced me. Trump is bad, but Biden is also bad. It’s hard to disagree with such expert argumentation.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Just take a look at these polls, I'm not alone.

I'm admonishing folks to be realistic about Bidens qualities as a candidate and chances of winning. He's got +1 to + 5 against trump in various polls. That's not some guarantee of victory.

You seem to think I'm arguing in favor of Trump, I'm arguing that he might win. I've repeatedly said that I will not vote for him under any circumstances, I'll vote for a burning bag with a D by its name over trump. I'd consider voting of Hailley or some other republican over biden or Harris though. Lots of people don't agree with me on the bag of **** and there are probably lots more folks that agree with me on other republicans. One thing that will contribute a dem loss, is acting like biden isn't old as **** and tainted by his son or acting like Harris is this the second coming of Barack Obama.

Biden running is a mistake. Should be Whitmer or Newsom, I prefer Whitmer.

 

[The Don]

Yeah, people of that age who seem healthy regularly have rather abrupt declines in health. The fact that Biden does not have any apparent chronic conditions does not mean that there's still not a huge risk he'll drop dead or otherwise suffer a rapid decline of health at any time.

I suppose having access to basically infinite medical care of the highest possible quality does help tilt the scales back a bit, but depending on Biden or Trump to continue to outperform the actuarial tables seems an inherently risky proposition.

It does, as does surviving to 80 in decent health.

The average life expectancy for an 80 year old man in the US was 7 years in 1995:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7565998/

In the UK it's 9 years.

IMO the combination of access to healthcare, his existing good health, socioeconomic group and so on would tend to push Biden (and Trump for that matter) above the average in terms of life expectancy.

 

[ahhell]

Seems to be a recurring issue for the Republicans is that their barbs towards Biden aren't really things they can capitalize on because their own candidate is either just as bad or worse.

Trump is just as decrepit, likewise this whole "hunter biden" thing falls flat when you consider the alternative is the openly self-dealing Trump family.

A hypothetical opponent of Biden could easily score some points in contrast, but that's just a speculative exercise. Old, fat, corrupt Trump is the candidate and Biden, as deeply flawed as he is, looks fantastic by contrast.

Its true but most of them refuse to see how bad Trump is and pretend its all some plot against him. I at least respect Christy and Hailley for call that out in the debate. If they're still around by the primary I'll probably vote for one of them. I get to vote in either parties election in the primary on account of being unaffiliated.

About the only way trump won't be the nominee is if he dies before the convention.

All that being said, if the dems run someone younger, that makes it a lot easier to get those independents and few extra Reps.

 

[ahhell]

It does, as does surviving to 80 in decent health.

The average life expectancy for an 80 year old man in the US was 7 years in 1995:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7565998/

In the UK it's 9 years.

IMO the combination of access to healthcare, his existing good health, socioeconomic group and so on would tend to push Biden (and Trump for that matter) above the average in terms of life expectancy.

All fine and good, but most people still think they are both too old. Either party running someone else automatically gets a benefit.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

It does, as does surviving to 80 in decent health.

The average life expectancy for an 80 year old man in the US was 7 years in 1995:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7565998/

In the UK it's 9 years.

IMO the combination of access to healthcare, his existing good health, socioeconomic group and so on would tend to push Biden (and Trump for that matter) above the average in terms of life expectancy.

7 year average doesn't strike me as being that good for someone running for a 4 year job, which presumably will demand more of him than simply still being alive.

Wish I could see more of the granular data, but I'd guess "dead before 4 years" is a decent probability, even if below average.

 

[Nosi]

You are the one who seems to have a cockeyed worldview. There are plenty of polls out there showing Trump beating Biden, and plenty showing Biden beating Trump. The race is essentially a tossup at this point, and the idea that the Democrats could put up poop on a stick and still beat Trump is ridiculous and dangerous.

Most of those poll's information gathering involves landline telephone calls. Landlines are mostly used by older Americans, and that population tends to be Republican for the most part.

Politico article about landline polls

Cell phones are used for information gathering in far fewer polls, and of course, there are the small handfuls of polls done on the street. This is further complicated by the fact that only 6% of people called in any poll on any device complete an interview.

Most of the Millennial and Gen Z generations are untethered entirely from landlines if they don't live with older Americans. Smartphones come with software to block annoying telephone calls from scammers, spammers, and yes those conducting polls that can annoy.

 

[Nosi]

I don’t have a problem with it insofar that you didn’t immediately precede your hyperbolic Trump analogy with an admonishment to be realistic about Trump.

But you know what, you’ve convinced me. Trump is bad, but Biden is also bad. It’s hard to disagree with such expert argumentation.

We are dealing with two degrees of 'bad'. Biden is bad in that it will be Washington Gridlock per usual. But with Trump, that kind of bad is Republic ending. Trump and his GQP can be the end of the USA as we know it.