Dr. Kitten,
A question:
In futures markets, do the value of the put and call contracts exceed the value of the actual commodities being produced? I have been reading a bit about monetary policy and money creation since I was last in this thread, and it occurred to me that a similar process might also exist for commodities.
I honestly have no idea. In fact, I'm not even entirely sure what you mean by "the value of the put and call contracts"; if I buy a far out of the money call option for one hundred shares of INTC, I might pay only $1 per share for a nominal "value" of $150 a share. Is the "value" of that contract $100, or $15,000?
But as to the bigger question, there's no money created in a call/put contract, although there is "wealth" created. Essentially, (99% of) options are bets. In the case above, I would be betting that Intel is going to increase tenfold in the next short period of time, and someone else is betting that it's not. One of us is right and one of us is wrong and we'll settle up come Memorial Day.
So this doesn't create money any more than a casino does. It does, however, create wealth in that one of us has created/found a genuine, dyed in the wool, double-breasted twenty-four carat sucker -- and we can both resell our end of the bet for more money to even greater fools that we.
But money creation? No. No more than the Casino de Monaco creates money when it accepts a bet on red.
And this also shows that your question about the size of options is largely irrelevant. The same casino can have $100,000 hanging on the turn of a card from a fifty-cent deck. The value of the cards doesn't have any influence on the value of the bets placed at the table. Most options are simply cash-settled bets on the movement of stock. I think that gold, for example, is in a bubble, and is going down. Many of the gold bugs here think that gold will continue to go up, up, up, and up. So I bought a put option for one of the gold mutual funds (GLD), and I found a
sucker counterparty who was willing to accept my put and take the risk of being forced to buy gold from me at substantially over market value.
Of course, there is information in the options trade. If Bill and Warren both decide that gold is overpriced and they want to buy the same puts I did, they're probably going to be able to buy enough puts to shift the price. Which means that the price for puts is going to be going up, and gold traders will notice there's some Big Money that's thinking the price of gold will be going down. This may or may not adjust their willingness to buy gold at current prices....