Clancie said:
Hi g8r,
Yes, I agree with you that some of LKL messages are vague (not that I've seen any professed cold reader get anything comparable--including Ian Rowland, viewed live, where his mediumship demo yielded....zero hits, not even "vague" ones).
I -do- disagree that all LKL hits were vague messages. For example, (and I realize others disagree), I consider "cigarettes in the coffin--not his brand" an excellent hit.
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Can you link to the transcripts of the additional LKL interviews?
As to Ian Rowland, I would like to remind you, that not only did he get some hits, as you and I were in the same audience, but at leasr one other member of the audience agreed with me on that. In addition, presenting an admitted cold reader to an audience of skeptics at Caltech is a slightly different circumstance than a medium to an audience of believers.
Here were my original notes
Cold reading- that was a tough one, as he was sitting in front of a skeptic crowd. He threw out 4 threads, and I believe if it had been a more trusting crowd, he would have gotten spectacular hits on all. However, the interesting part was not so much the hits, but his entirely nimble maneuvering, making use of near misses into great hits. It was fascinating. Once again, it is impossible to do it justice here, but here were the threads
1. Charles, older man, mustache, connection with military. Now in a crowd of 300, there damn well better be a connection, but nobody bit on that- it did not phase him one bit. He just let Charles stick around
2. Conversation with Elizabeth. One woman said she had recently spoke with Elizabeth, at which point he fairly accurately described Elizabeth's appearance and said they had a professional relationship. This is where it got funny- the person said Elizabeth was her apartment manager, but I think Ian thought she was her work manager, because he talked a bit about raises and work changes. The woman appeared to validate most of his guesses- good reading
3. Recent financial troubles- also a hit and a prediction. Not as general as it might sound, the sitter validated a few things
4. Car trouble in tires- also hit, the sitter validated shock problems, and Ian pretty much guessed all.
Here is a portion of your reply, where you seem to acknowledge Elizabeth hit, which you forgot above.
However, I just do want to highlight what you mentioned, that his two attempts at "mediumship cold reading" didn't come off at all. "Deceased Charles or Charlie" got no hits, despite being an "uncle/grandfather"....or eventually "maybe a family friend", "having a military connection...." Nothing.
And "Elizabeth" was originally supposed to be someone deceased, too, until the woman claimed her as someone living.
He quickly dropped "mediumship" and switched to just "psychic readings" --about a job and money--predictably cold reading-as-you'd-expect-it, and those did seem to fit whoever he gave them to (probably also fit many others in the audience with work/money problems, as well).
Very entertaining stuff. Just no "cold reading like JE". None at all.
A portion of my reply
That is true. There are many reasons for that, including
1. He is, as he says an admitted fraud
2. This was a skeptical audience
3. He has scruples.
I believe that if this was a believer audience, who did not know he was a magician, and if did not care about their feelings and loss, he would have done as well or better than JE. Certainly his performance last night, even with the above constraints was as good as or superior to JE's undedited readings on Larry King.
And here is a comment by another JREFer who was there, Electric Monk
I'll put my vote in for audience difficulties on the cold reading portion of the program. Despite asking everyone to put themselves in the place of an earnest audience, the general familiarity of the local skeptics with the tricks of cold reading had a lot of them laughing loudly every time he tried one of the standard dodges. Kinda spoiled the mood, I think.
The sitter who responded to the "tires" prompt was the husband of Tanja Sterrmann, Mike Shermer's office manager and lovely assistant at TAM. Since TAM, I've spoken to them both a few times and can report that they're both quite sharp-minded individuals, and that he is a very lucky guy.
As to whether it was at all like John Edward- perhaps you would like to familiarize yourself with this comment by Luker
http://host.randi.org/vbulletin/sho...24370&perpage=40&highlight=tire*&pagenumber=1
Anyone want to list John Edward's big misses? Misses where the info was fairly specific but got no response?
I happened to be home for lunch yesterday and saw a couple of big misses on one lady.
{snip=r}
3. At the seminar I attended John picked someone out of the crowd and said, "Congratulations on the new tires." The man shrugged his shoulders clearly indicating he knew nothing.
{snip=r}
Of course I could not let it pass, hence the comment by me
New tires? That is hilarious because Ian Rowland in his cold reading demo said something similar, about new tires. Of course JE was getting it psychicly... I alsways thoughts spirits were quite the kidders.
So JE somewhat like Rowland, at least.