How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

USA, Texas:

Back-to-school season brings rise in colds, COVID and viral infections (Kris 6 News, Aug 19, 2025)
Health officials are reporting a rise in cases of COVID-19 cases as children head back to classrooms across the region. Local pediatricians say they've seen a spike in viral infections, including COVID, in the two weeks since school resumed.

ETA:

Dr. Lucky Tran on X, Aug 19, 2025
From @dr_kkjetelina: “If you’re under 65 and not high risk, the window to get a Covid-19 vaccine is right now—before the FDA label changes (possibly this Friday). Once it happens, access will be limited immediately.”

Dr. Lucky Tran on X, Aug 19, 2025
Note: COVID hasn’t changed that much recently, so while they will be updating the vaccine in fall to match the latest variants, the current “old” vaccine should still provide good protection (and better than no vaccine if access is restricted).

Dr. Lucky Tran on X, Aug 19, 2025
For those asking about Novavax, this was fully approved by the FDA in May but only in adults 65 and older – or those 12 to 64 who have at least one health problem that puts them at increased risk from COVID-19.
FDA approves Novavax COVID-19 vaccine, but with unusual restrictions on its use (PBS News, May 18, 2025)

 

[The Atheist]

When New Zealand's Chief Covid Panic Officer, Dr Michael Plank, says:

...with Covid now endemic in the community...

and:

“This year, we've been averaging around about five deaths per week due to Covid...

“To put it in context, a typical influenza season in New Zealand could cause somewhere between 500 and 1000 deaths. So, you know, these viruses have an impact but I would say Covid is no longer exceptional."

Note that 260 deaths a year in New Zealand is less than number of people who die in car crashes.

That's an actual Covid expert, but please ignore him and continue to bleat about a "pandemic".

 

[dann]

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 19, 2025
PMC COVlD Update, August 18, 2025
Very High Transmission: Alaska, Guam, Hawai'i, Nevada, Texas, Utah
High Transmission: Alabama, California, Connecticut, Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina
Data note: The CDC made a major update to how it processes and provides wastewater data on Friday, August 15. The changes include the following:
1) There are some inconsistencies in label descriptions on the website (e.g., top of the page says "Very Low" or "Low" but graph says "Moderate").
2) They have reclassified how they bin states into categories, which may put more states in the Very Low or Low categories than before.
3) They have switched from "normalized" data that accounts for confounders like rainfall levels to non-normalized data. The overall effect of this nationally appears minimal, but it may reduce data quality at the state or site level.
The changes came as we were about to release Version 3.0 of the forecasting model, which now requires additional effort. We hope to have the next dashboard update on August 25, have provided this week's updated heat map on the website, and include the graphics and report from last week on the website too.
At present, new daily infections appear to top 700,000 in the U.S., but we will not know for a week or two whether real-time reports from the CDC are still reasonably reliable. The uptick the past week was very large, meaning the situation is much worse if the data hold. Stay tuned.

 

[dann]

Whenever The Atheist is bleating about a "pandemic" in quotation marks while leaving out both the title and a link to the article he quotes, it's always worth making the effort to look it up:

When New Zealand's Chief Covid Panic Officer, Dr Michael Plank, says:
...with Covid now endemic in the community...
and:
“This year, we've been averaging around about five deaths per week due to Covid...
“To put it in context, a typical influenza season in New Zealand could cause somewhere between 500 and 1000 deaths. So, you know, these viruses have an impact but I would say Covid is no longer exceptional."
Note that 260 deaths a year in New Zealand is less than number of people who die in car crashes.
That's an actual Covid expert, but please ignore him and continue to bleat about a "pandemic".

This is the article:

Five deaths a week and dozens of hospitalisations show Covid hasn't gone away (Stuff.co.nz, Aug 18, 2025)
According to wastewater analysis from PHF Science (formerly ESR), Stratus has been on the rise for the past two months. In the week ending August 3, it was the second-most detected strain of Covid, after NB.1.8.1, or Nimbus.
“I've seen in other countries that XFG has out-competed the NB.1.8.1 variant and sort of taken over,” said University of Canterbury professor and expert modeller Michael Plank.
“We haven’t seen that happen in New Zealand so far, which is maybe a little bit surprising. And it could happen, you know, in the months ahead. But at the moment, it's the NB.1.8.1 that appears to be dominating.”

But after several years, we have reached a point where one of The Atheist's favourite comparisons, i.e. "260 deaths a year in New Zealand is less than number of people who die in car crashes," has finally come true. Not by much, and only because NZ had twice the number (289) of people killed in traffic accidents in Denmark (145) in 2024. Denmark's population size is slightly larger than NZ's, so I don't know what NZ does wrong in this respect.

But then there is the another reason why The Atheist's comparison is absurd. I have pointed it out before but probably not enough:
Dying of COVID-19 is not something people get to choose as an alternative to being killed by the flu. Covid deaths are in addition to already existing causes of death. RationalWiki calls it the "Not as bad as" fallacy:

The "not as bad as" fallacy, also known as the fallacy of relative privation, asserts that:

1. If something is worse than the problem currently being discussed, then
2. The problem currently being discussed isn't that important at all.
3. In order for the statement "A is not as bad as B," to suggest a fallacy there must be a fallacious conclusion such as: ignore A.

So COVID-19 is still bad even though it may not currently kill as many people in NZ as the flu or as many people as last year.
There is also the damage done by PASC, which The Atheist never takes into consideration.

By the way, I notice that in a fairly short post, Dr. Michal Plank goes from being "New Zealand's Chief Covid Panic Officer" to becoming "an actual Covid expert."

 

[dann]

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 21, 2025
During times like these when COVlD transmission heats up in the U.S., expect to see a lot more angry outbursts for three central reasons.
First, "displacement," or people trying to deny the reality of their anxiety by taking it out on other people....

In Mike Hoerger's thread on X, each tweet is followed by a page or two from a psychology book describing each psychological defense mechanism. I have left out those copied pages here and replaced them with links to Wikipedia. Go to the thread on X if you want to see the actual copied texts.

Mike Hoerger on X, Dec 20, 2023
As a clinical health psychologist, I notice that many people are using psychological defense mechanisms to downplay the risk of COVID. These are my Top 7 examples:

#1 – Denial – Pretending a problem does not exist to provide artificial relief from anxiety.
Examples:
“During COVID” or “During the pandemic” (past tense)
“The pandemic is over”
“Covid is mild”
“It’s gotten milder”
“Covid is now like a cold or the flu”
“Masks don’t work anyway”
“Covid is NOT airborne”
“Pandemic of the unvaccinated”
“Schools are safe”
“Children don’t transmit COVID”
“Covid is mild in young people”
“Summer flu”
“I’m sick but it’s not Covid”
Taking a rapid test only once
Using self-reported case estimates (25x underestimate) rather than wastewater-derived case estimation
Using hospitalization capacity estimates to enact public health precautions (lagging indicator)
Citing mortality estimates rather than excess mortality estimates. Citing excess mortality without adjusting for survivorship bias.

#2 – Projection – When someone takes what they are feeling and attempts to put it on someone else to artificially reduce their own anxiety.
Examples:
“Stop living in fear.” (the attacker is living in fear)
“You can take your mask off.” (they are insecure about being unmasked themselves)
“When are you going to stop masking?”
“You can’t live in fear forever.”

#3 – Displacement – When someone takes their pandemic anxiety and redirects their discomfort toward someone or something else.
Examples:
Angry, seemingly inexplicable outbursts by co-workers, strangers, or family
White affluent people caring less about the pandemic after learning that it disproportionately affects lower-socioeconomic status people of color
Scapegoating based on vaccination status, masking behavior, etc.
“Pandemic of the unvaccinated”
Vax and relax
“How many of them were vaccinated?” (troll comment on Covid deaths or long Covid)
Redirecting anxiety about mitigating a highly-contagious airborne virus by encouraging people to do simple ineffective mitigation like handwashing
“You do you” (complainers are the problem, not Covid)
Telling people to get vaccinated or take other precautions against the flu or RSV but not mentioning Covid
Parents artificially reducing their own anxiety by placing children in poorly mitigated environments
Clinicians artificially reducing their own anxiety by placing patients in poorly mitigated environments
Housework to distract from stress
Peer pressure not to mask

#4 – Compartmentalization – Holding two conflicting ideas or behaviors, such as caution and incaution, rather than dealing with the anxiety evoked by considering the incautious behaviors more deeply (hypocrisy)
Hospitals and clinicians claim to value health/safety but then don’t require universal precautions
Public health officials claim to value evidence but then give non-evidence based advice (handwashing over masking), obscure or use low-value data over high-quality data (self-reported case counts over wastewater), etc.
Getting a flu vaccine but not a Covid vaccine
Interviewing long Covid experts who recommend masking in indoor public spaces but then going to Applebee’s
Masking in one potentially risky setting (grocery store) but not masking in another similar or more-risky setting (classroom)
Infectious disease conference where people are unmasked
Long Covid and other patient-advocacy meetings where only half the people mask
In-person only EDI events
Not testing because it’s just family
Mask breaks

#5 – Reaction formation – expressing artificial positive feelings when actually experiencing anxiety
“It’s good I got my infection out of the way before the holidays”
“I had Covid but it was mild”
Anything quoted in Dr. Jonathan Howard’s book, “We Want Them Infected: How the Failed Quest for Herd Immunity Led Doctors to Embrace Anti-Vaccine Movement”
Herd immunity (infections help)
Hybrid immunity (infections help)
“It’s okay because I was recently vaccinated”
“Omicron is milder”
“Textbook virus”
“Building immunity”

#6 – Rationalization – Artificially reducing Covid anxiety through a weak justification.
Examples:
“I didn’t mask but I used nasal spray”
“I don’t need to mask because I was recently vaccinated”
“It finally got me.”
“You’re going to get Covid again and again and again over your life.”
“It’s not Covid because I don’t have a sore throat.”
“It’s not Covid because I took a rapid test 3 days ago.”
“It’s not Covid because I’m vaccinated.”
“Airplanes have excellent ventilation.”
“I’ve had Covid three times. It’s mild.”
“Verily was cheaper.”
“Nobody else is masking.”
“Nobody else is testing.”
“My roommates don’t take any precautions, so there’s no point in me either.”
“I have a large family, so there’s no point in taking precautions.”
Surgical masks (they are actual “procedure masks,” by the way)
Various pseudo-scientific treatments used by the left and right
Handwashing as the primary Covid public health recommendation
Droplet transmission as a thing
Public health guidance that begins with “data shows” (sic)
Risk maps that never turn deep red
5 expired rapid tests
“Masks recommended” instead of universal precautions
“Seasonal”

#7 – Intellectualization – using extensive cognitive arguments to artificially circumvent Covid anxiety
Examples:
Unending threads to justify indoor dining
Data-rich public health dashboards that use low-quality metrics and/or don’t change public health recommendations as risk increases
The entire justification for “off-ramps”
Oster, Wen, Prasad
Schools denying air cleaners because it “could make children anxious”
Schools not rapid testing this surge because it “could make children anxious”
The mental gymnastics underlying the rationales for who can get vaccinated, how frequently, or with what brand
Service workers told not to mask because it could make clients uncomfortable
“What comorbidities did they have?”
“The vulnerable will fall by the wayside”
Musicians and others holding large indoor events
5-day isolation periods

 

[dann]

USA:

US COVID markers continue upward trend (CIDRAP, Aug 22, 2025)
Over the past week, test positivity rose a bit from 8.9% to 9.9%, with levels as high as 15% in the south-central part of the country, followed by levels at the 10% to 12% range in western states.
(...)
Emergency department (ED) visits for COVID, still at low levels, also rose, up 15.2% compared to the previous week. Levels are higher in the South, Southeast, and West compared with other parts of the country. The CDC said ED visits are rising for all age groups and are highest in young children.

 

[dann]

John Hess MD on X, Aug 22, 2025
EXACTLY. Infants under age 6 mo. have the 2nd highest hospitalization rate behind only 75+. 6 mo-1 year are just barely behind 65-75. Absolutely ridiculous it isn’t recommended in those age groups. Plus NO myocarditis in pregnancy or young kids!
Protecting infants and children from COVID-19-associated hospitalization (CDC, Oct 2, 2024)

it is currently the same scenario in Denmark in 0-2-year-olds.

 

[dann]

COVID-19 outbreak forces metro school to close until next week (FOX4kc, Aug 28, 2025)
Leaders at Holy Name of Jesus Catholic School in Kansas City, Kansas, confirmed that classes are canceled until Tuesday due to a COVID-19 outbreak at the school.
The school said on social media that classes are expected to resume after the Labor Day break. The post doesn’t specify whether students, faculty – or both – are affected by this spread.

Imagine what it would be like if the virus wasn't mild and children weren't immune ...

“It’s concerning that this early in the school year, we already have a closure,” Dr. Hawkinson said Thursday.
(...)
He said the public should consider reviving some forms of pandemic-era (!) precautions, such as proper hand hygiene and avoiding unnecessary touching of the hands and eyes.

It is concerning that nobody has told Dr. Hawkinson that the virus is airborne and the pandemic era never stopped.

 

[dann]

It is concerning that nobody has told Dr. Hawkinson that the virus is airborne and the pandemic era never stopped.

At an outdoor salsa event on Saturday, I told one of my dancing partners that I stopped dancing indoors when the pandemic began.
She is intelligent and otherwise well-informed, but she answered: "I just wash my hands carefully before and after."
People were lied to since the pandemic began. It took the health authorities in three years to discover and agree that the virus is airborne:

Nu er der dansk konsensus: Coronavirus smitter via luften (Ugeskrift for Læger, Mar 6, 2025)
Der er langt fra at sige, at der er en luftbåren komponent, der spiller en rolle i nogle sammenhænge, til at sige helt generelt, som vi gør nu, at det her er en luftbåren infektion. Så der er sket et paradigmeskifte.

Now there's consensus in Denmark: Coronavirus spreads through the air (Weekly Journal for Doctors)
There's a long way from saying that an airborne component plays a role in some contexts to saying in general, as we are doing now, that infectious disease is airborne. So what has happened is a shift in paradigm.

Unfortunately, the mainstream media isn't very good at reporting paradigmatic shifts, and the sight of hand-sanitizer dispensers in supermarkets helped confuse people on this issue:
'What would be the point of hand sanitizer if the virus is airborne and isn't mainly spread by people touching contaminated fomites? They must be there for a reason, right?'

And Covid minimizers did the rest with their lies about the efficacy of respirators.
And they're still doing it!

 

[dann]

USA:

Mike Hoerger on X, Sep 3, 2025
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 1 of 8
The 11th wave is still rising.
23 states/territories High/Very High
Very High: Alabama, DC, Guam, Hawai'i, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah
1 in 56 estimated actively infectious
876,000 new daily infections

Mike Hoerger on X, Sep 3, 2025
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 5 of 8
We're in an 11th COVlD wave.
Many are getting infected while waiting on delayed vaccine approvals. Millions more are being denied vaccine access entirely.
Few public health groups mention the importance of N95 masks and air purifiers.

The full report: Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (Sep 1, 2025)

 

[dann]

The first U.S. million, 2020-2022, with comments from what has now become the current medical establishment:

Review of the book “We Want Them Infected” by Jonathan Howard (SkepticalRaptor, Nov 28, 2023)

 

[dann]

California:

Rise in COVID cases has one CA leader recommending masks (San.com, Sep 4, 2025)
“Overall wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 are currently increasing, and it is not yet clear when wastewater activity will peak this summer,” the California Department of Public Health said in a statement to Straight Arrow News.
California is one of 21 states with “high” or “very high” levels of coronavirus in wastewater. However, it has still not reached the same levels as the last couple of summers when the virus usually peaks.

Salt Lake City:

Mike Hoerger on X, Sep 4, 2025
Today's forecast for Salt Lake City: COVlD

 

[dann]

Washington, D.C.:

Mike Hoerger on X, Sep 4, 2025
Perhaps everyone obsessing over the health of D.C. politicians should understand that it's currently swimming in COVlD.

 

[dann]

Denmark:
The SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater still at medium level but also rising - as expected now that people are back at work or at school, week 33, Aug 11 to 17.
National wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 (SSI.dk, Aug 20, 2025)
The percentage of positives (8.5%) and the number of C19 hospitalizations are rising, too.

Still at "medium level" but decreasing: National wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 (SSI.dk, Sep 3, 2025)

The percentage of positives still 8.5%.
The number of new hospitalizations is higher than April, May, June, July 2025, but still considerably lower than late August of previous years.
The hardest hit group by far is 0-2-year-olds. I don't know why. Maybe pregnant women have stopped getting vaccinated. Denmark never vaccinated that age group of children.

 

[TureT]

...I don't know why....

I believe you.

I pray for you.

New day, new hope, new joy.

 

[dann]

New moronic and entirely irrelevant post from Ture T.

 

[dann]

England:

Dan O'Hara on X, Sep 4, 2025
The PCR positivity map is out, and while things may have calmed a little in Cumbria, and in Devon, everywhere else looks to be rising.
https://jamestindall.info/skeuomorphology/ladb_covid/index.html
1/7

Dan O'Hara on X, Sep 4, 2025
There's not a lot to be happy about this week, no matter where you are: this looks much more like the sort of wave we haven't seen for a while.
I expect school return to lift these levels further over the next few weeks.
https://jamestindall.info/skeuomorphology/ladb_covid/index.html
7/7

 

[dann]

Californians urged to wear masks indoors as Covid cases double (The Independent/MSN, Sep 4, 2025)
With a video (1 min.): Bill Nye effectively debunks the idea that face masks don't stop Covid-19

 

[dann]

New Zealand:

Strain of winter illnesses leaves Christchurch Hospital ED like a ‘mass casualty situation’ (ThePress.co.nz, Sep 5, 2025)
Christchurch Hospital’s emergency department is seeing record numbers of patients as the grip of winter illnesses tightens, with senior doctors likening it to a “mass casualty situation” and at one point considering putting up a tent to help with triage.
The Press understands patient numbers reached new peaks last week, even more than the daily average of 435 patients that were seen late last month, forcing more to be sent to Burwood Hospital for treatment than usual.
A newsletter sent to members of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS) revealed that senior doctors said ED “was feeling like a mass casualty situation”, with difficulties getting patients discharged or transferred due to a lack of allied health, rehabilitation or community-based support services.

The situation is "exacerbated by staffing shortages in certain public hospital departments."
There is no mention of C19 or the flu, but: "“We have seen a significant rise in respiratory-related emergencies,” said acting deputy chief executive for ambulance operations Rosanne Shaw."

 

[dann]

USA - C19 vaccines:

People can’t get COVID vaccines as cases surge. Anger is building against Trump (Los Angeles Times, Sep 5, 2025)

• New federal restrictions are making it difficult for many Americans to access COVID vaccines during a late summer surge.
• Adults under 65 must now consult healthcare professionals or attest to underlying conditions before getting updated shots.
• The confusion has left doctors, pharmacists and patients scrambling as vaccine access becomes increasingly unclear.