How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

New Orleans:

Mike Hoerger on X, July 27, 2025
The CDC reports #NewOrleans has had 2 weeks of "Very High" Covid transmission.
Get free tests Monday, 9-10am at Harmony Park, corner of Claiborne & Carrollton.
Protect your family & our community. Support safety for people who have cancer, Long COVID, or are immunocompromised.

 

[dann]

USA:

Covid Cautious on X, July 27, 2025
Two charts, one reality.
LEFT: MAGA CDC merged COVID into all respiratory illness to further obfuscate its prevalence, stating "very low" for the entire country.
RIGHT: Wastewater data showing we're *actually* having ~350k daily infections and rising quickly toward 500k

Covid Cautious on X, July 27, 2025
In Nov 2021 Dr. Fauci said COVID cases in the U.S. need to fall as low as 3,300 per day to gain control over the virus.
We've never gotten anywhere remotely close to that. They simply shifted what "high" meant so they could color the chart blue and sweep it under the rug.

Covid Cautious on X, July 27, 2025
Since then we've been whipping back and forth between 500k-1million daily infections, but continue to move the goal posts of what is "normal."
We are headlong into a surge with a new variant. Public health is dead, and the medical industrial complex is just following orders.

 

[dann]

USA:

Mike Hoerger on X, July 29, 2025
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
Thread 1/12
PMC estimates 400,000 new daily infections. 1 in 118 people actively infectious.Weekly stats:
2.8 million infections (>40x reported cases)
>140,000 resulting #LongCOVID cases
>1,000 resulting excess deaths

Mike Hoerger on X, July 29, 2025
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
Thread 3/12
It's HOT COVID SUMMER in the Deep South. No geographic/political prejudices, see next. Covid is burning through Guam (1 in 25), Louisiana (1 in 32), Florida (1 in 59), and Texas (1 in 98; underestimate due to sites down).

Hawai'i (1 in 43), California (1 in 82), New York (1 in 203; substantial non-reporting)

Mike Hoerger on X, July 2025
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
Thread 7/12
Today you experienced a typical day in the last 5.5 years of the pandemic, with transmission higher than 47% of days, and lower than 53%.
Typical means that in a room of 35 people, there's a 1 in 4 chance of exposure.

 

[dann]

New York ends paid sick leave for COVID-19 five years after pandemic (LOCALsyr, July 29, 2025)
When the COVID-19 paid leave legislation initially took effect, New York City had at least 203,000 confirmed cases during the first three months of the pandemic, data from the CDC shows.
(...)
Following the expiration of the legislation, employees who contract COVID-19 or come into contact with an infected person can still use paid time off under state or city sick leave laws.

 

[dann]

USA, Northeast:

Mike Hoerger on X, July 31, 2025
WastewaterSCAN has SARS2 levels increasing by 60% in the Northeast (U.S.) from July 11-20.
This ignores the most recent 4 days of data (unstable) that show a steeper increase of 164% from July 11-24.
A regional increase of 30-35% would be noteworthy over those timespans, IMO.

 

[dann]

USA: Texas, Alaska

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 4, 2025
The CDC shows Texas with "Very High" COVlD transmission.
I noted last week that many high-transmission TX sites were offline & the dip into "Moderate" territory was likely an aberration. Sadly, true.
PMC estimates that 1 in 38 Texans are now actively infectious.

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 4, 2025
The CDC has Alaska experiencing "Very High" COVlD transmission.
PMC estimated 1 in 33 actively infectious.
Take the category and prevalence estimate with a grain of salt. Two sites are listed "Very High" and one "Very Low." We may see a retroactive correction.

 

[dann]

USA - emergency department visits. Young kids particularly hard hit:

JWeiland on X, Aug 5, 2025
Summer wave is accelerating, as seen here by ED data:

Danish numbers usually show that 0-to-2-year-olds are impacted harder than other young age groups:

JWeiland on X, Aug 5, 2025
It follows the now apparently standard trend of an increase in 0-11 year olds, and will impact the teenage groups harder in the coming weeks as school returns.

 

[dann]

"... this flu thing that's going around ..."
Because it is flu, right? As in influenza, isn't it? Isn't it?

I Brake 4 Ants on X, Aug 7, 2025
This is one of the worst case scenarios of our current “covid is over” approach… being sick for 7 days & exposing coworkers before realizing it may be covid.

With a short video, 1:05 min.

 

[dann]

What do we know about the Covid-19 virus five years on? (The Guardian, Aug 7, 2025)
As the virus continues to evolve, experts assess its latest variants, seasonal prevalence and levels of vaccine uptake
Is Covid on the rise?
Is it a seasonal illness?
Which variant are we on now?
Should we all get vaccines?

As for the latter:

Although there is still hybrid immunity in the population because most people received several vaccines during the pandemic, there is a growing population of children who would have been too young to have received them at the time.
The experts feared that growing vaccine hesitancy, which Williams described as “one of the most pressing concerns” in public health, could have an impact on whether these children receive a jab or people turn up for their boosters.
Another consideration, when it comes to building immunity, is the growing body of research suggesting that for several months after a Covid infection, people become more vulnerable to other infections and there can be lingering effects on the heart, cardiovascular system and the brain.
“We’re only five years into this virus, there’s a lot of question marks and unknowns,” said Williams.

There are indeed still "a lot of question marks and unknowns," but we do know that the virus evolves. After all, the article has a paragraph about new variants that are able to evade immunity - whether hybrid or not.
However, kudos for mentioning that prior immunity is what gives us some protection even against new variants. "It’s not the case that they are becoming progressively milder."

 

[dann]

USA:

COVID levels rising in much of U.S., with highest in West, CDC says (CBS News, Aug 8, 2025)
The summer surge of COVID-19 doesn't appear to be slowing down — instead, a key indicator for tracking the spread of the virus has increased, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In an update shared Friday, official data showed wastewater activity for COVID-19 is now at a "moderate" level nationwide, up from "low" the previous week.

In Denmark, too, it's now at "medium level."

 

[dann]

USA: Mask Together America on X, Aug 11, 2025

COVID-19 probability is growing by ~100%. As of Aug 5, the CDC estimates C19 infections are growing or likely growing in 45 states. https://bit.ly/C19Flu_Trends
Everyone is susceptible to complications and Long COVID.
Prevention is community care: #MaskTogetherAmerica

 

[marting]

USA: Mask Together America on X, Aug 11, 2025

I find this: "COVID-19 probability is growing by ~100%" unclear at best. But it is apparently just the probability C19 is growing (99.85%) rather than declining (.15%) as it excludes the far tail of the distribution.

The useful info is that C19 is growing in the USA at about 9% per week. 95% CIs are 5% to 13%. This has been the same for the last month so close to doubling every month. However, it's from a low level and still at a low level however, the rate of increase has not started to decline. It looks like the summer wave peak will be much later than usual.

COVID-NET

Describes COVID-NET and includes the COVID-NET Interactive Dashboard.

www.cdc.gov

 

[dann]

No, it may have been from a low level, but the level of "wastewater activity for COVID-19" is no longer low. It's moved on to "moderate."
See post 1,438.

It was from a a low level, but the low level mentioned in post 1,431 is "% of ED visits (COVID-19): 0.87% (low)"
Remember that, as always, the usual order is: wastewater/cases --> hospitalizations --> ICU --> (or cured/PASC).

 

[marting]

No, it may have been from a low level, but the level of "wastewater activity for COVID-19" is no longer low. It's moved on to "moderate."
See post 1,438.

It was from a a low level, but the low level mentioned in post 1,431 is "% of ED visits (COVID-19): 0.87% (low)"
Remember that, as always, the usual order is: wastewater/cases --> hospitalizations --> ICU --> (or cured/PASC).

The problem is that wastewater levels have not been decreasing nearly as fast as ED/hospitalizations in the last 3 years. Even when adjusted for delays.

 

[dann]

Why would they be "decreasing nearly as fast as ED/hospitalizations"?
Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection: significance and implications (TheLancet, Infectious Diseases, Vol. 24, #7, July 2024)

From the other thread, post 788:

SARS-CoV-2 detections in wastewater accurately predict illnesses within 1 week, study finds (CIDRAP, July 24, 2025)
A new study from the University of Minnesota found that SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater accurately predicted the subsequent COVID-19 case count the following week in the community, adding further evidence to the usefulness of wastewater detection.
The observational study was published today in the Journal of Infectious Diseases. The authors said the study was conducted to assess the usefulness of wastewater detections for COVID-19 now that widespread community immunity has been obtained through infection and vaccination.

The point is prediction of cases, not prediction of wastewater levels. From the same article about the same study:

“These data unequivocally demonstrate that levels of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater predict the frequency of symptomatic COVID-19 in the community approximately a week in advance of the clinical cases,” they concluded.

Let me improve this from post 1,433:

Remember that, as always, the usual order is: wastewater/cases --> hospitalizations --> ICU --> (or cured/PASC).

wastewater levels --> EV visits --> tests/registration of cases --> hospitalization --> ICU --> (or cured/PASC)

Because nowadays EVs are where and when people get tested and registered since the pandemic is supposed to have been over for quite some time.

 

[dann]

USA:

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 12, 2025

Louisiana (Very High): 1 in 19 actively infectious
Guam (Very High): 1 in 26
Hawai'i (Very High): 1 in 28
Texas (High): 1 in 45
Florida (High): 1 in 50
California (High) 1 in 56

 

[dann]

Florida (High): 1 in 50

USA, Florida:

‘Petri dish for disease’: attorney raises alarm of possible Covid outbreak at ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ (TheGuardian, Aug 12, 2025)
An outbreak of a respiratory disease, possibly Covid-19, is running rampant through the remote Florida immigration jail known as “Alligator Alcatraz”, according to the attorney of an infected detainee removed from the camp last week.
Eric Lee said he was told by his client Luis Manuel Rivas Velásquez that conditions at the facility had deteriorated significantly since Thursday as more migrants held there by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) agency experienced symptoms.

 

[dann]

This is how we won't know - the Trumpian way:
USA:

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 14, 2025
Amid one the largest U.S. Covid increase since 2022, New York joins Oklahoma and Arizona in the “Limited Coverage” pool.
There is so little data available, no conclusions can be drawn.
No data ≠ no Covid carnage
No data = There is something to hide.

Denmark:
I had the same suspicion when I looked at the Danish numbers yesterday.

SARS-CoV-2 status in wastewater as of 13.08.2025 (SSI.dk,
In week 32 (August 4 - August 10) the national SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater, indicating the amount of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the population, is at a medium level.
In all five regions, the concentration is likewise at a medium level.
Since week 26, technical uncertainties in the laboratory have likely led to an overestimation of the growth during this period.
The results for the wastewater concentration of SARS-CoV-2 should therefore be interpreted with caution for this period, and the national growth rate, which is the average weekly growth over the past three weeks, will not be published this week.

 

[dann]

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 16, 2025
The more I dig, the more problems I see on the CDC COVlD wastewater surveillance dashboard. They have re-binned values such that higher levels of transmission are now categorized as "low" or "very low."

Z on X, Aug 16, 2025
It’s the same thing they did with the individual testing data (when they were still doing that).

https://t.co/UNWWxgcFor

 

[dann]

Denmark:
The SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater still at medium level but also rising - as expected now that people are back at work or at school, week 33, Aug 11 to 17.
National wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 (SSI.dk, Aug 20, 2025)
The percentage of positives (8.5%) and the number of C19 hospitalizations are rising, too.