How do we know a pandemic's over?

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away: DNC version

Reports are coming in of positive COVID-19 tests following the Democratic National Convention. MSNBC medical contributor Dr. Kavita Patel joins Chris Jansing to share more on the summer wave and new concerns about the virus as kids go back to school.
Positive COVID tests roll in after DNC amid summer wave (MSNBC on YouTube, Aug 27, 2024 - 4:54 min.)

"They may have come hoping for Beyoncé, but they left with COVID."

All summer, coronavirus infections have been surging in California and across the country. But a new, updated vaccine could help bring infections back under control.
L.A. Times Ron Lin joined Lisa McRee with more on when and where people can get their shots.
As COVID wave wallops California, new vaccines arrive this week. Will it be a turning point? (L.A.Times, Aug 27, 2024)
With video, 6:15 min.

"And COVID is still the more dangerous of the three [RSV, the flu and COVID], right?!"
"That's right. I mean, if you just look at other things that's happened since last October, COVID has caused more than 50,000 deaths nationwide, while flu has caused an estimated more than 25,000 deaths. COVID does a lot of things like Long Covid."


Infections are running rampant after the Democratic confab in Chicago, with staffers on Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign, reporters and other convention-goers all stricken — and in at least one case claiming the positive test was “worth it.” Cases also cropped up after the Republican National Convention in July.
(...)
“It’s very difficult to talk about politically, because it’s still present and neither side wants to acknowledge that this pandemic is still around,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and former Trump administration appointee with a background in global health.
(...)
Inside a Biden White House that has now reoriented itself around electing Harris, senior officials have continued to keep an eye on Covid, wary of a particularly dangerous flare-up during the key stretch of the election that could force the virus back into the public consciousness and damage Democrats politically.
Democrats and Republicans greet Covid spike with a collective shrug (Politico, Aug 27, 2024)
 
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Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away: DNC version

When we do not have competent, experienced, compassionate leaders in government, the American people suffer. That is the case with the novel coronavirus. President Trump and his Administration missed multiple opportunities to protect the American people from this deadly pathogen. Instead of recognizing the danger and confronting it head-on, President Trump lied to the American people about the disease’s severity, its transmissibility, and the threat it posed to lives and livelihoods.

Make no mistake: President Trump’s abject failure to respond forcefully and capably to the COVID-19 pandemic—his failure to lead—makes him responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of Americans.
PROTECTING AMERICANS AND RECOVERING FROM THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC (Democrats. org, 2020, I assume)


And what about the tens of thousands of American lives lost to C19 since Jan 20, 2021, or Jan 20, 2022, or Jan 20, 2023, or Jan 20, 2024?
'Let's just pretend, forcefully and capably, that it's over and move on.'
 
Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away

Nobody cares and nobody reads your tosh anyway.
Point proven - nobody cares.


Point proven - nearly one third cares:
Harris' campaign declined to comment while Trump's campaign did not respond to an inquiry.
Still, the unpredictable nature of Covid - which is mutating more quickly than drugmakers can keep up with and is fueling surges outside of the typical winter period than infectious diseases experts initially predicted - could make it harder for Harris and Trump to ignore, especially as cases remain elevated as voting gets underway.
Nearly one third of respondents to a recent Axios-Ipsos poll said Covid poses a "large" or "moderate" risk to their health - an uptick from the same survey in early June when cases were lower.
Democrats and Republicans greet Covid spike with a collective shrug (Politico, Aug 28, 2024)
 
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Yes, that's what a poll is: People are asked questions, and then they answer them.
13% said they've worn a face mask in public in the past week, while the number who report they've taken an at-home COVID test ticked up slightly from June, to 15%.
Axios-Ipsos poll: Uptick in Americans feeling COVID risk - How much respondents say contracting COVID-19 is a risk to their health and wellbeing (Axios, Aug 22, 2024)


The many stupid attempts to make COVID-19 appear to be no worse than the flu seem to be working:
Nearly one-third of Americans see COVID as a threat to their health, but the summertime wave of infections hasn't changed the widespread belief that the virus is no worse than seasonal flu, according to the latest Axios-Ipsos American Health Index.
Why it matters: Comparing COVID to the flu was once an incendiary political talking point. Now, it's where many people have landed.


Minimizing works. It makes people stop wearing masks and respirators.
 
Also from the link:

But they rate the risk about the same as that for the flu, RSV or other respiratory illnesses — and 52% strongly or somewhat agree that the pandemic is over.

They're as scared of catching covid as they are of catching a cold. Yep, that's some real concern.
 
Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away

Indeed!
"They're as scared of catching covid as they are of catching a cold," because they have listened to the lie that COVID-19 is no worse than the flu or the common cold.
Let's see, can we think of anybody who would make up and spread lies like that? Hmmm.

Like I said:
The many stupid attempts to make COVID-19 appear to be no worse than the flu seem to be working:

Minimizing works. It makes people stop wearing masks and respirators.


Meanwhile, in the real world, not in the world of opinion polls tracking people's knowledge as well as their ignorance and delusions:
Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections are still at the very high level and are highest in the South. Though levels are dropping in the West, they are rising in the South, Midwest, and Northeast, the CDC said.
Meanwhile, wastewater tracking from WastewaterSCAN shows that detections nationally are still at the high level, with no clear trend up or down over the past 3 weeks. The group, however, noted an upward trend in the Midwest. WastewaterSCAN is a national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University.

KP.3.1.1 levels climb; hospitalizations elevated
In updated variant proportion estimates today, the CDC said the level of KP.3.1.1—a JN.1 offshoot thought to more easily evade immunity from earlier infection and vaccination—continues to rise sharply and is at 42.2%, up from 29.5% 2 weeks ago.
(...)
Hospitalizations from COVID remain elevated, especially in seniors and in children younger than 2 years old, the CDC said in its weekly respiratory illness summary.
COVID still on the rise in parts of US (CIDRAP, Aug 30, 2024)


So the Danish numbers for 0-2-year-olds are not unique. There was never any reason to assume that they would be.
 
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Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away

Good news from New Brunswick, which I only know about from a very different context.

Effective Sept. 3, 2024, masking will be required in all patient-facing/clinical areas of Horizon facilities, including hospitals, community health centres, clinics, addiction and mental health facilities, and any location where patient care takes place.
Horizon Health (X, Aug 29, 2024)


Minimizers, anti-maskers and libertarians are up in arms:
After 4 years, New Brunswick is starting to bring back unscientific mask mandates.
Complete insanity!
Whatever you did last time, it's imperative that if they try this again in your area again too, DO NOT COMPLY!
Bret (X, Aug 30, 2024)

Today a particular type walked towards me in a mask and I turned up my nose, said "ew" and sidestepped them very openly.
Normalise treating people in masks like THEY are sick and you don't want to get sick by being around them; don't believe when they tell you they're healthy.
Libertarian Partying in New Brunswick (X, Aug 30, 2024)

fight it in any and every way
better to bring down the system in every way than allow this to come back
Alberta-Leonidas (X, Aug 30, 2024)


Normalize reminding people who behave like this to mind their own business. Ask them why they are so afraid of seeing someone else wearing a mask and exactly what impact our mask has on them? Inform them there is help for their pragmatophobia and fear of a real threat is normal.
K3LLYB33N (X, Aug 30, 2024)

The most common way of naming a phobia is to use the word naming the object of that phobia. You can safely use pragmatophobia to name the "fear of reality".
What is the phobia of reality called? (Quora, Aug 15, 2018)
 
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Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Canada:
This report was last updated on August 30, 2024 with data up to and including August 18, 2024.
(...)
Figure 2. Trend graph of 7-day rolling average of viral load in wastewater, as of August 30, 2024
COVID-19 viral activity level is currently High and the population coverage is 28.84%
Respiratory viruses: Wastewater monitoring dashboard (Respiratory viruses: Wastewater monitoring dashboard, https://health-infobase.canada.ca/wastewater/)
See graph in link.

If the surge was any steeper, it would be vertical.
 
Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Italy:
Italy: Growing numbers of Covid cases
* 11% increase compared to the previous week
* 36% increase in deaths in one week
* 16.2% test positivity
* Concern about the variant XEC
Covid, +11% casi rispetto alla settimana precedente: preoccupa la variante Xec (La Repubblica, Aug 30, 2024)
CoronaHeadsUp (X, Aug 31, 2024)


ETA:
In English: Covid Cases and Deaths Continue to Rise in Italy (Il Messagero, Aug 30, 2024)
 
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Vaccines: Novavax approved

I thought (see post 1,141) that the delayed FDA approval of Novavax might have been due to an attempt by Novavax to target the currently dominant KP.3.1.1 variant directly, but that doesn't seem to be the case:
Novavax’s vaccine targets the JN.1 COVID-19 variant, which was the dominant strain circulating in the U.S. earlier this year but now makes up less than 1% of cases.
Both Pfizer and Moderna’s shots target the KP.2 COVID-19 variant—JN.1 is the parent variant of KP.2.
The FDA in June asked vaccine makers to create shots that target the coronavirus’ JN.1 variant, but later changed this recommendation to advise manufacturers to focus on the KP.2 strain of the JN line after reviewing updated case data; Novavax said production for JN.1-specific shots was already underway and would be able to create KP.2 shots.

The new vaccines are monovalent, which means they target one specific COVID-19 variant, though they offer some protection against other strains. KP.2 is a descendant of JN.1, and both strains are descendants of the omicron variant. Although KP.2 was the most dominant variant earlier this summer, it’s been knocked down to sixth place while its offspring currently dominate. Research has shown all three updated vaccines are more effective at protecting against the JN lineage than the currently available XBB vaccines, which were approved last year. When compared to its XBB vaccine, Pfizer’s KP.2 COVID-19 vaccine offered up to a 7.3-times stronger response in mice infected with KP.2 and several other JN variants, according to trial data. Moderna’s KP.2 vaccine was up to eight times more effective at protecting mice against JN variants than its XBB.1.5 vaccine. Novavax scientists gave mice an XBB.1.5 vaccine and then administered the JN.1 shot 11 months after. The JN.1 vaccine was up to 48 times more effective at protecting against the JN lineage than the initial XBB.1.5 shot.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends everyone six months and older to get an updated vaccine regardless of whether they were previously vaccinated. Moderna and Pfizer’s vaccines will be available for people six months and older, while Novavax’s shot will be targeted toward those 12 years and older.
FDA Approves Updated Novavax COVID Vaccine Week After Approving Moderna And Pfizer’s Shots (Forbes, Aug 30, 2024)


It would be interesting to know their efficacy against the XEC variant.
 
Good news: temporary respite expected

5 Week US Forecast to October:
A nearly 40% drop in daily infections is anticipated over the next 5 weeks, with some uncertainty in the rate of decline.
No variant is backing up right behind KP.3.1.1, allowing some extra breathing room for numbers to come back down.
JWeiland (X, Sep 1, 2024)
See graph in tweet. Others in the thread warn that the current school openings may affect the numbers.

Will some people (again) argue that the pandemic is over in 3...2...1...?!

Father prepares to lay his daughter to rest after COVID-19 complications a month after testing positive (WVTM13, Aug 30, 2024)
"Sorry, this content is not available in your region," so that's all I know.
 
Father prepares to lay his daughter to rest after COVID-19 complications a month after testing positive (WVTM13, Aug 30, 2024)
"Sorry, this content is not available in your region," so that's all I know.

From the link:

After she came down with COVID-19, Byron told WVTM 13 his daughter never fully recovered and battled strep throat and mono. He said doctors believe Amber may have ultimately died from an autoimmune syndrome.

Not even a covid death.

All those deaths from this wave you've been bleating about and you find one young woman who didn't die from covid.

Lots of geriatrics have. Some of them may have died weeks early!
 
Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away

"Not even a covid death."
Those ignorant minimizer posts have become so dumb and bereft of any relationship with reality that it's unbearable!
The title alone should have been a clue:
Father prepares to lay his daughter to rest after COVID-19 complications a month after testing positive (WVTM13, Aug 30, 2024)
Read up or STFU.

High risk of autoimmune diseases after COVID-19 (Nature, April 12, 2023)

Risk of autoimmune diseases following COVID-19 and the potential protective effect from vaccination: a population-based cohort study (TheLancet, Sep 2023)

3. Autoimmunity: Infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus may trigger autoimmune disease. Elevated levels of autoantibodies, which are believed to play a role in other autoimmune conditions, such as lupus (SLE), rheumatoid arthritis, or Sjögren’s syndrome, have been noted in some patients with Long COVID. Normally, antibodies respond to foreign invaders, such as bacteria and viruses. Autoantibodies instead can attack the body’s own cells, leading to inflammation and tissue injury.
In some patients with Long COVID, antinuclear autoantibodies (ANAs) have been identified up to 12 months after acute infection. These ANAs can target components of cell nuclei-promoting inflammation and damage organ systems. For example, in the inner lining of blood vessels known as the endothelium, these autoantibodies may promote a hyper-inflammatory state or changes to blood cells that might stimulate inappropriate clotting.
The Long COVID Puzzle: Autoimmunity, Inflammation, and Other Possible Causes (Yale Medicine, Long Covid blog, May 27, 2024)


And as for "strep throat and mono":
Getting COVID-19 Could Weaken Your Immune System (Time, Mar 27, 2023)
Severe COVID-19 May Cause Long-Term Immune System Changes (NIH, Oct 27, 2023)
SARS-CoV-2 infections have a long-term impact on the immune system (Medical University of Vienna, July 15, 2024)
Short-term weakening of the immune system in the case of other viral infections is well-known.
 
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Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away

In post 1,174 I quoted a prediction of a "nearly 40% drop in daily infections ... over the next 5 weeks."
However:
Updated CDC data: Covid hospitalization rates continued to rise.4.6 per 100,000 people were hospitalized during the week of August 4-10. This crucial, yet lagging indicator hasn’t been this high since February 2024
https://cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/index.html
Ziyad Al-Aly, MD (X, Sep 1, 2024)

Cumulatively since October 2024, Covid resulted in twice more hospitalizations than the fluhttps://cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/index.html
Ziyad Al-Aly, MD (X, Sep 1, 2024)

These data are not perfect. The limitations are outlined on the CDC website.
Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) (CDC)
Ziyad Al-Aly, MD (X, Sep 1, 2024)


So COVID-19 still isn't anywhere near the level of influenza, in spite of the bleating from minimizers who claimed that the COVID-19 numbers were going to be much lower than the numbers caused by the flu.
 
People really seem to be oblivious to the rising numbers. I'm one of the few people I see wearing a mask in public (I resumed it a couple of weeks ago), even when I was in the emergency room of a large hospital. Sixty-plus people sitting in proximity for hours, and maybe five of us had masks on. Of all the places on earth surely that's one of the last places one should omit a mask! I'm certain a lot of those people left with more health problems than they arrived with.
 
I see complaints about this all the time on X:

I got it from a hospital stay, but managed to avoid transmitting it further.
Bob (Moderna #7) Kerns (X, Aug 31, 2024)

If they manage to live through it . My mother caught it 1st time in hospital. We had protected her for 3 years. Went in for checks after a fall. Checks proved fine but they gave her covid, then pneumonia then flu. She got covid delirium and died painfully. Was during a wave
reefshark57 (X, Sep 1, 2024)

Spoke to a friend who was going to visit her mum in hospital. They were having a covid outbreak on the ward. She insisted she was still going so gave her a decent mask.
Kayley Edwards (X, Sep 1, 2024)

given none of the staff were masked or cleaned their hands before/after touching me I'm lucky to have not come down with a hospital acquired virus/infection in the last 4wks...
I wore a cloth mask when in my own room, MRI safe mask under the cloth one when in A&E/scans/transit
Jenni Longstaff (X, Sep 1, 2024)

I dread anyone I know having to go to hospital.
Judy Smith (X, Sep 1, 2024)
 
U.S. hospitalizations and deaths

The rise in hospitalization numbers in the USA was mentioned in post 1,177.
However, this wasn't mentioned:
Only 33% of hospitals in the U.S. submitted COVID data this week, which is similar to last week but down from 91% in May.
This means actual case numbers and hospitalizations are substantially higher than reported.
BNO News (X, Sep 2, 2024)


Other numbers:
Weekly U.S. COVID update:
- New cases: 177,573 est.
- Average: 172,372 (+4,737)
- In hospital: 5,357 (-77)
- In ICU: 627 (+10)
- New deaths: 1,262
- Average: 1,058 (+152)
Note: Limited dataBNO News (X, Sep 2, 2024)

This is the third week in a row with more than 1,000 new COVID deaths in the U.S.
It's also the 233rd week in a row with 400+ deaths, or 1.2 million deaths in total.
BNO News (X, Sep 2, 2024)

You can also find a more detailed report on our website:
U.S. COVID update (September 1): Deaths remain above 1,000 (BNO News)
BNO News (X, Sep 2, 2024)


Sounds like pandemic is over & everything w/ COVID is totally under control (sarcasm).
350k hospitalizations is a severe undercount because many hospitals aren’t reporting anymore (thx CDC) and many aren’t testing.
And forget hospital airborne infection controls (also thx CDC).
Eric Feigl-Ding (Sep 2, 2024)


See comments from C19 minimizers and C19 denialists in both the BNO News thread and after Eric Feigl-Ding's tweet!
 
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IT IS ***NOT*** OVER.
NOT past the peak. NOT trending down. NOT fading away. NOT getting milder. NOT just like a cold. NOT just a flu. NOT only affecting old people. NOT only affecting people with a pre-existing condition.
STOP LYING & START BUILDING A SAFER WORLD.
Alan Baxter (X, Aug 27, 2022)


Because some people need to be reminded on a daily basis ...
 

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