How do we know a pandemic's over?

[The Atheist]

Roger Ramjets made a claim and backed it up documentation:

Do keep up, mate.

As noted already, the numbers RR quoted are preliminary only and don't even show deaths from covid. They show deaths of people who had covid within the past month.

I'm still waiting for your "evidence", and going by that pathetic attempt at providing some, I will continue not holding my breath waiting.
_____________________________

And while we're on the subject of the terrible FLiRTy wave hitting New Zealand, it's so bad that the 7-day average of cases in the past week has already declined by almost 50%.

It's truly time to panic!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350299347/numbers-whats-happening-covid-19-right-now

 

[The Atheist]

IDK, seems like Ramjets evidence shows, that the older you are, the more likely you are to die from covid and if you are under 50, there's not much to worry about. Sure, its not only the very old but its clearly mostly the old and very old and much less likely to die of covid if you are even middle aged.

Since the vaccines became widely used, the enormous majority of people dying from covid already have a toe-tag printed. They are either very old, very frail or both.

Some of them have had their lives shortened by months!

 

[novaphile]

IDK, seems like Ramjets evidence shows, that the older you are, the more likely you are to die from covid and if you are under 50, there's not much to worry about. Sure, its not only the very old but its clearly mostly the old and very old and much less likely to die of covid if you are even middle aged.

And of course, dying is the only effect from CoVid isn't it?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Since the vaccines became widely used, the enormous majority of people dying from covid already have a toe-tag printed.

You don't know that.

They are either very old, very frail or both.

So?

The totals for those who died of Covid-19 as the underlying cause (ie. not just hastening their imminent death) are:-

0 to 59 102
60 to 69 165
70 to 79 487
80 to 89 969
90+ 824

I know many people in the 70-89 age group and few over 90 who could be described as 'old and frail', who are still enjoying life and don't 'have a toe-tag printed'.

It's a testament to the NZ health system, and the citizens who followed the rules and got fully vaccinated, that our death rate has been so low. Nevertheless we should not dismiss those deaths because 'only the old and frail are dying'. Many of them could have enjoyed several more years if it wasn't for that virus.

I am currently self-isolating because my brother's partner came down with Covid on Saturday, and didn't bother to test herself until after my brother and me had been out shopping the next day. No symptoms so far, but I will stay away from my 'old and frail' neighbors for a few more days.

 

[The Atheist]

You don't know that.

Pretty sure I do, because if it weren't true, we'd be hearing about it.

If 4 old dears at a rest home croaking from 'flu in one week made front page news in every paper, covid deaths would feature if they weren't everyone not almost dead already.

You don't know that.

The totals for those who died of Covid-19 as the underlying cause (ie. not just hastening their imminent death) are:-[/QUOTE]

What happened early in the pandemic bears no relation to now.

I know many people in the 70-89 age group and few over 90 who could be described as 'old and frail', who are still enjoying life and don't 'have a toe-tag printed'.

So do I. One of my former lawnmowing customers had a telegram from the Queen before Lizzie croaked.

Those aren't the ones dying of covid. The ones who are, are frail, in hospices or full rest-home care.

Many of them could have enjoyed several more years if it wasn't for that virus.

Past tense. Right now, the ones dying have months left if they're lucky, and given the state of age care, might actually help with staff shortages.

I am currently self-isolating because my brother's partner came down with Covid on Saturday, and didn't bother to test herself until after my brother and me had been out shopping the next day. No symptoms so far, but I will stay away from my 'old and frail' neighbors for a few more days.

Responsible of you - nobody else is doing that, as evinced by the numbers. Most people don't even bother testing, because it's clear that if 0.1% of tested covid cases are in hospital*, the enormous majority of people are having no problem with it.

*I'll be astonished if more than 5% of cases are being identified right now.

 

[dann]

Reality Check: "almost 50%"

Cherry-picking the news - a The Atheist service:

Do keep up, mate.
As noted already, the numbers RR quoted are preliminary only and don't even show deaths from covid. They show deaths of people who had covid within the past month.
I'm still waiting for your "evidence", and going by that pathetic attempt at providing some, I will continue not holding my breath waiting.
_____________________________
And while we're on the subject of the terrible FLiRTy wave hitting New Zealand, it's so bad that the 7-day average of cases in the past week has already declined by almost 50%.
It's truly time to panic!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350299347/numbers-whats-happening-covid-19-right-now

The article tells us much more than what The Atheist tells us:

* Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations have been increasing in recent weeks, prompting officials to say we may be experiencing another wave of the virus.
* The most recent data shows reported cases are similar to last week, but hospitalisations were up.
* It comes as hospitals and schools are reporting seeing an increase in respiratory illnesses, including flu, RSV, Covid-19 and rhinovirus, as winter is just kicking off.

There’s been a recent “sharp” increase in Covid-19 cases across New Zealand, just as winter is kicking off.
Health New Zealand say they’ve also seen a “steady increase” in the number of Covid-19 cases in hospital over the last fortnight, with approximately 386 Covid-19 positive cases in hospitals across the country as of Tuesday morning.
By the numbers: What’s happening with Covid-19 right now (Stuff.co.nz, May 4, 2024)

So what exactly is The Atheist's definition of "declined by almost 50%"???

6142The number of Covid-19 cases reported across the country, in the week ending June 3, Health New Zealand said on Tuesday afternoon.
This was down slightly on the week prior, when there were 6636 cases reported, but still higher than a few weeks ago.
This a self-reported figure, and is reliant on people out in the community who have swabbed at home using a rapid antigen test (RAT) reporting their result.
(...)
314The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 as of midnight Sunday, according to Health New Zealand’s weekly Covid-19 data reporting.
This was up from 282 the same time last week.
(...)
Hospitals and schools have reported seeing an increase in respiratory illnesses recently, with Covid-19, flu, rhinovirus (which causes the common cold) and RSV all circulating at once
On Tuesday, Health New Zealand’s Duncan Bliss told Stuff that Covid-19 infections, plus other respiratory and infectious winter illnesses put pressure on both ED and in-hospital services.

This is why it is always necessary to ask The Atheist for the actual numbers and ask him to document those numbers.

So what makes The Atheist talk about 50%?
Nothing but cherry-picking because there's also this:

666The seven-day rolling average number of new cases, in the week ending June 3.
This was down from 948 the week prior.

So hospitalizations are (slightly) up, self-reported cases are (slightly) down, and yet there's a considerable, i.e. almost 50%, decrease in the "seven-day rolling average number of new cases."
Why is that?
It remains to be seen. If the number of hospitalizations decreases in a week or two, it may be due to a decrease in the number of actual cases.

This is also interesting:

3458Of the total number of cases reported over the past seven days, 3458 - or 56% - were reinfections.

Considering how often we have been told that the immunity caused by infections would give us strong protection against future infections, it should be stressed:
No, it won't! And every time we get infected, it increases our chances of getting Long Covid.

The Atheist's reporting of the news reminds me of a recent post on X:

There is misinformation and ambiguous misinformation - the latter does most harm
"content that is potentially misleading but not unambiguously false"
Quantifying the impact of misinformation and vaccine-skeptical content on Facebook (Science, May 31, 2024)
Astrid Iversen (X, June 4, 2024)

 

[dann]

In Portugal covid deaths are approaching January levels. In June. Total disaster. Total silence.
Nate Bear (X, June 3, 2024)

There is a big COVID wave right now in Portugal but no warnings about it. So I started a Telegram Channel for info on SARS²/COVID-19 in Portugal. The channel is in Portuguese and English and will focus on the Portuguese reality. 1/

The graph of Covid cases and deaths in Portugal shows a large increase in the numbers right now, after a very quiet March/April. My clinical practice is also reflecting this. Despite the limitations (almost no testing) the relative trend is clear. 2/
Pedro Lérias (X, June 2, 2024)

Belgium: Covid is back
Strong increase in SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater around Leuven
CoronaHeadsUp (X, June 3, 2024)

Hola ! COVID is back!
Sterke stijging van #SARSCoV2 in het #rioolwater rond het Leuvense #Aquafin
Elke Wollants (X, June 3, 2024)

Sterke stijging = strong rise

When you hear anyone in the news say "during the pandemic" or "post-pandemic", this is what they are talking about:
Lee Altenberg, Ph.D. (X, June 2, 2024)

See numbers and graphs in the tweets!

 

[The Atheist]

So what exactly is The Atheist's definition of "declined by almost 50%"???

You're getting more and more incoherent by the day.

You even said, and I quote:

...and yet there's a considerable, i.e. almost 50%, decrease in the "seven-day rolling average number of new cases."

But you roll straight past it into more incomprehensible babble.

Actual facts mean nothing to you. As I've said before, I understand you have an irrational fear about covid. You should seek help instead of relentlessly trying to convert others to your own state of mind.

 

[dann]

No, on the contrary!
I was the one who started with the information that The Atheist had scrolled straight past!
Actual facts mean nothing to The Atheist, which is what makes it necessary to make a reality check whenever he posts anything at all. His estimates, predictions and 'odds' are usually several times off the mark, and when they aren't, it is probably because he has cherry-picked whatever makes Covid in general seem harmless or the current level of the pandemic seem to be less than it actually is. Meanwhile, he ignores the information that doesn't suit the purpose of obfuscation, as in this case.

Minimizers gonna minimize.

 

[dann]

"As Covid and flu infections continue to soar ..."

Australia

The education union is pleading with parents to keep sick children home amid an alarming spike in respiratory illnesses in classrooms. The surge has schools scrambling to fill relief teaching positions across the state. Details in 7NEWS Adelaide at 6pm.
@GertieSpurling7 #7NEWS
7NEWS Adelaide
(X, June 3, 2024)

With short video, 1:25 min.

"With hundreds of hospital staff also off sick and almost two dozen elective surgeries cancelled, the opposition renewed calls for flu vaccine to be free for all Australians."

It’s the same here in the UK…
Over here, sick children are actively encouraged to attend school in an attempt to reduce absences due to illness…
…but it’s totally counter-productive as this strategy just spreads the illnesses, meaning MORE kids end up sick & off school!
Cat in the Hat (X, June 4, 2024)

What a surprise! Who would've thought allowing an airborne pandemic to run uncontrolled would result in mass sickness.
Maybe time to actually make schools Covid-safe to stop this mess??
John (X, June 3, 2024)

"Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1..."

Will some people now argue that it's much too expensive to make "schools Covid-safe to stop this mess"?
It's what they usually do, so it's to be expected.
After all, only billionaires (and pigs!) are entitled to Covid-safe spaces. It's much too expensive to keep children safe from debilitating diseases, isn't it?!

 

[dann]

"At least once a year."

COVID is not a “one and done” thing—far from it.
Those who are unvaccinated and don’t mask can expect to come down with COVID once a year or so—once every other year for the unvaccinated who regularly use a “good quality” mask in public, according to modeling by drug developer Fractal Therapeutics.
As for the vaccinated, both masked and unmasked, they can expect to get COVID “a lot less frequently,” though it’s impossible to say just how often, said Arijit Chakravarty, a COVID researcher and Fractal Therapeutics CEO.
“The bottom line is if you are planning not to use a mask and live your life as usual, expect to get infected at least once a year, if not more,” he said. “If you’re planning to mask everywhere but at home, that probably cuts the risk in half.”
(...)
It does not account for the possible evolution of a variant that completely evades immunity, he cautioned.
You’re probably going to get COVID at least once a year (Fortune, May 25, 2024)

It doesn't sound good, does it? And for people who enjoy comparisons with influenza:

The average for flu is once every 12 years, btw.
I know. The response to that is usually "Yes, but they test way less for flu so it's probably more common than that!"
Ok, then the implication is that flu is less virulent than claimed and much less so than COVID.

Here, 8% of the population infected with influenza per year (ranging 3% to 11%), which works out to any particular person infected on average around once every 12 years. If it’s 11% infected per year, that would be an average of once every 9 years.
T. Ryan Gregory (X, June 5, 2024)

 

[dann]

KP.3 and KP.3.1.1

KP.3 is starting to outcompete KP.2. Its unique Q493E mutation brings some critical features:
1) KP.3 has higher ACE2 binding affinity than KP.2.
2) KP.3 is more immune evasive. KP.3 +31del (KP.3.1.1) is the most.
3) KP.3 is especially good at evading Class 1 antibodies.
Yunlong Richard Cao (X, June 4, 2024)

See graphics in tweet.

Q493E of KP.3 may have an epistasis effect with the F456L mutation, resulting in the increase of ACE2 binding affinity.
This is important since strong ACE2 binding would allow KP.3 to easily accumulate highly immune evasive RBD mutations, such as A475V.
Yunlong Richard Cao (X, June 4, 2024)

One advantage of the Cuban vaccines is that they target the RBD, so I wonder if the new mutation may make it easier for new variants to evade the immunity generated by Abdala and Soberana 02 vaccinations.

 

[ahhell]

And of course, dying is the only effect from CoVid isn't it?

Sure, but I'm only addressing the evidence prevented. Covid sucks, I've had it twice, it sucks, still, the evidence presented strongly suggests it sucks a lot more the older you are, by orders of magnitude.

 

[theprestige]

I'm over 50. I'm overweight. I've had Covid twice, according to the home tests. I reported neither case to the authorities. I recovered in the expected time period, with no lasting effects.

 

[8enotto]

Never been tested, since the CV thing started I have actually had flu like symptoms much less than before.
Probably because fewer were out there spreading the common cold and flu.

I am in my late 50's and find little to fear in these late stages of the pandemic. The deaths are lower than han normal for older folks, no spikes in any illness to cause a panic at all.

 

[marting]

Dann,

If both of these are true....

COVID is not a “one and done” thing—far from it.
Those who are unvaccinated and don’t mask can expect to come down with COVID once a year or so—once every other year for the unvaccinated who regularly use a “good quality” mask in public, according to modeling by drug developer Fractal Therapeutics.

The average for flu is once every 12 years, btw.

Then in San Diego with a pop. of 3.3M, Flu is now more virulent than Covid-19. There have been 321 C19 deaths and 55 Flu deaths in the last 10 months. But if you, on average, get Flu once every 12 years and C19 every year then the Flu is roughly twice as virulent. But let's look at age distribution. There have been exactly the same number (8) of Flu and C19 deaths for people under 50. Worse for this demographic, C19 up to date vax rates are under 10%, Flu vax rates are just over 20%. And mask wearing is rare.

Running the numbers, if you get flu every 12 years the IFR for flu would be .02% If you get Covid-19 every year then the IFR would be .01%. Covid deaths heavily skew towards the elderly so let's look at the younger folks in their prime.

For those under 50, given these assumptions about how often people get the Flu/Covid, the IFR for Covid-19 is about .0004% for Covid and .004% (12x higher) for Flu.

Neither Flu nor Covid get much testing and home tests for Covid aren't reported so who knows how often people get either one. The yearly and 12 year numbers are highly speculative. But sero surveys for Covid do suggest that people may well be getting repeat Covid-19 more often than Flu.

In my view the pandemic is done, but not the after effects. These include sequalae and lost learning from school shutdowns. Especially in poorer communities.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Neither Flu nor Covid get much testing and home tests for Covid aren't reported so who knows how often people get either one.

I was just talking my 50 year old friend (who is an electrician) 5 minutes ago, after he picked up a parcel I was holding for him. I didn't let him into the house and kept my distance. Then he told me (in between coughs) that he got Covid 2 weeks ago and only recovered enough to go back to work today. Half the people at his workplace are currently off sick with Covid. Yet the latest figures say only 8 out of every 100,000 people per day are getting it here. How can this be?

In my view the pandemic is done, but not the after effects.

According to a Gallup poll taken in March, 59% of Americans believe the pandemic is over and 41% don't. However there is a big partisan split - 79% of republicans think it's over while 59% of democrats think it isn't. 57% of US adults say their lives are not yet back to 'normal', and 14% say they will never be.

Stop press: My brother just rang up to tell me he's got Covid!

 

[dann]

Neither Flu nor Covid get much testing and home tests for Covid aren't reported so who knows how often people get either one.

I'm with you on that one: It's a pity that COVID-19 numbers aren't reported anymore. Oh, wait! Didn't you recently celebrate it as a victory that "CDC discontinues mandatory Covid19 reporting" and "doesn't even have Covid-19 on its main page"?!!

The yearly and 12 year numbers are highly speculative. But sero surveys for Covid do suggest that people may (?!) well be getting repeat Covid-19 more often than Flu.

In my view the pandemic is done, but not the after effects. These include sequalae and lost learning from school shutdowns. Especially in poorer communities.

Serosurveys aren't the only thing suggesting "that people may well be getting repeat Covid-19 more often than Flu."

This is also interesting:

3458
Of the total number of cases reported over the past seven days, 3458 - or 56% - were reinfections.

Considering how often we have been told that the immunity caused by infections would give us strong protection against future infections, it should be stressed:
No, it won't! And every time we get infected, it increases our chances of getting Long Covid.

As for "lost learning from school shutdowns. Especially in poorer communities," it is remarkable that Sweden's PISA scores were affected to the extent that they were. (Worse than Denmark's where online learning, even if not ideal, seemed to make up for locking down schools much better than Sweden's getting-everybody-infected-and-then-having-to-suspend-classes strategy.)
Swedish students' maths and reading scores plunge in Pisa world rankings (TheLocal.se, Dec 5, 2023)
Maybe keeping schools open for the sake of trying to achieve herd immunity by infection isn't such a good idea ...

In a prior essayhttps://sciencebasedmedicine.org/atlasherdimmunity/, I discussed how the We Want Them Infected movement is trying to rebrand itself as the All We Really Wanted Was Poor Kids in School movement. With their assurances that the mass infection of unvaccinated youth would lead to herd immunity in 3-6 monthshttps://sciencebasedmedicine.org/is...arrington-declaration-even-remotely-relevant/ in tatters, pro-infection doctors are now furiously trying to rewrite history, portraying themselveshttps://sciencebasedmedicine.org/dr-jerome-adams/ as nothing more than selfless warriors for children and their education.
The facts tell a different story.
Pro-Infection Doctors Didn’t Just Want Kids in School. They Wanted Them There Unvaccinated, Untested, and Unmasked. They Wanted Them Infected. (Science-Based Medicine, May 17, 2024)

I also notice that Singapore is still at the very top of PISA scores - in spite of or because of lockdowns and restrictions - which makes me think that protecting children from COVID-19 infections by means of restrictions, lockdowns and vaccinations may be a better idea than using open schools as a way to spread the virus as fast as possible.

Comparing countries’ and economies’ performance in mathematics: Math score 2022 // Change from 2018:
Singapore 575 // +6
Sweden 482 // -21

Comparing countries’ and economies’ performance in reading: Reading score 2022 // Change from 2018
Singapore 543 // -7
Sweden 487 // -19

Comparing countries’ and economies’ performance in science: Science score 2022 // Change from 2018:
Singapore: 561 // +10
Sweden: 494 // -6
Numbers from OECD 2022 PISA Results Comparing countries and economies’ performance


There are several other countries on the list, and the contrast between countries that (more or less) 'let it rip' form the very beginning in the hope of achieving herd immunity by infection and countries that did their utmost to protect even children from getting infected by means of lockdowns, masking up and vaccinating even very young children, that contrast isn't always as stark as the contrast between Singapore and Sweden, but people should take a look at the whole thing for themselves.

The battle cry from minimizers, Think of the children! What about the children whose futures will be ruined forever by lockdowns - poor children, in particular?!', doesn't seem to be supported by facts, but when were minimizers ever bothered by facts?!

 

[dann]

IDK, seems like Ramjets evidence shows, that the older you are, the more likely you are to die from covid and if you are under 50, there's not much to worry about. Sure, its not only the very old but its clearly mostly the old and very old and much less likely to die of covid if you are even middle aged.

Sure, but I'm only addressing the evidence prevented. Covid sucks, I've had it twice, it sucks, still, the evidence presented strongly suggests it sucks a lot more the older you are, by orders of magnitude.

What is your point? It is a well-known fact that old people are much more likely to die when they get C19 than young people, but have you looked at the numbers (and ages!) of people who get Long Covid? Are young or middle-aged people who get it supposed to comfort themselves with the thought that, 'Well, I may have Long Covid, but at least I'm not dead or old'?

rates of long COVID remain steady and 7% of all adults—roughly 17 million people—reported currently having long COVID in March 2024. The latest data show that rates of long COVID have remained relatively consistent for the last year, suggesting they may persist indefinitely unless new forms of prevention or treatment are discovered.
(...)
Figure 3:
Percent of adults who reported having long COVID, as of March 4, 2024
By age
18-29^ 8%
30-39 6%
40-49 7%
50-59 8%
60-69 6%
70-79 5%
80+ 5%
As Recommendations for Isolation End, How Common is Long COVID? (KFF, April 9, 2024)

Eric Feigl-Ding on X mentions that "This 7% is official CDC data. And it hasn’t significantly dropped. It’s pretty steady."
From here: Long COVID (CDC)

 

[dann]

Stop press: My brother just rang up to tell me he's got Covid!

Don't listen to him spewing nonsense! Tell him it's over!
He's self-reporting and thus unreliable.
If he's your age (or +), he doesn't count anyway.