How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

"Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1..."

Australia

BREAKING: Elective surgeries are being cancelled as the hospital system struggles to cope with surging demand.
It comes amid an urgent health warning for parents as the peak of the flu season fast approaches.
"Metro and country hospitals are infected (affected?) with soaring flu and Covid cases largely to blame."
"With Covid cases also on the rise, our already overstretched hospitals are bracing for an increase in presentation in the coming weeks."
Hundreds of SA hospital staff sick with COVID cancelling elective surgeries | 7 News Australia (7NEWS Australia on YouTube, May 30, 2024 - 1:55 min.)

It talks about the importance of vaccinations for children, but C19 vaccinations aren't mentioned.
I don't know if this is the reason:

"The JN.1 and variants are the dominant variants in circulation, so the XBB vaccine is not as well-matched. It will still provide protection, but [the new vaccine] will provide better protection," she said.
Clinical microbiologist Dr Paul Griffin also endorsed the calls for an improved COVID-19 vaccine.
"The virus is changing rapidly, immune evasions are on the rise, we have updated the vaccine three times now to keep up to date," he said.
"We need to be agile and adapt quickly."
(...)
"The current vaccine isn't optimal with new strains popping up," he said.
"New subvariants like KP2 in the United States are derivatives of the JN.1 strain, so a vaccine targeting JN.1 would be more effective against the new subvariants popping up."
While there is widespread support for a new vaccine, it could take months to arrive in Australia.
(...)
"Every year new flu vaccines are approved very efficiently in Australia, but that's not the case with COVID-19 processes."
The push for a new COVID vaccine — and when Australians could get it (SBS News, May 3, 2024)

Rise in Victoria COVID-19, flu and RSV cases as winter approaches (9News, May 10, 2024)

COVID-19 on the Rise: The New FLiRT Variants (InfectiousDiseaseAdvisor, May 29, 2024)

COVID cases are rising across Australia. Here's what we know about the new variant: FLiRT (ABC.net.au, May 23, 2024)

 

[dann]

"Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1..."

USA

In the first half of 2023, COVID-19 killed 42,670 people in the United States, while the flu killed about half that amount. Yet half as many people received the updated COVID booster as those who got the flu shot — even though COVID is twice as deadly as influenza.
In all, around 22% of people have received the new COVID booster, while 47% of people have had a flu vaccine.
(...)
While COVID is still quite deadly, killing 42,670 Americans in the first 6 months of 2023, it's one fifth what it was in 2021 when the infection killed 219,222 people in the first half of the year.
Many young and middle-aged adults have experienced mild cases of COVID and aren't as fearful as they should be of the mortality numbers, said Wolfe. What's more, COVID deaths aren't being reported or highlighted in the media as often as they were in the first 2 years of the pandemic because the number of cases declined, and restrictions were lifted.
"Much of the mortality is happening out of sight these days compared to what was going on in 2020 and 2021," Wolfe said. "During that time, nearly everyone was directly impacted or knew someone who was impacted by COVID.
Flu vs COVID: Stark Disparity in Vaccination and Deaths (Medscape, May 2, 2024)

The article mentions that Republicans are much less likely to get vaccinated against C19.

Hawaii sees rise in COVID-19 positivity amid variant spread (StarAdvertiser, May 29, 2024)

 

[dann]

Sequelae

Even as national institutions struggle to coordinate meaningful trials for possible long COVID treatments, researchers continue to tally the damage. New findings suggest that the disease’s reach isn’t merely long—it’s still growing.
Three years after their initial bouts with COVID-19, patients who’d once been hospitalized with the virus remained at “significantly elevated” risk of death or worsening health from long COVID complications, according to a paper published May 30 in Nature Medicine.
Even among those whose initial cases didn’t require a hospital stay, the threat of long COVID and several of its associated issues remained real, the researchers found. And cumulatively, at three years, long COVID results in 91 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per 1,000 people—DALYs being a measure of years lost to poor health or premature death. That is a higher incidence than either heart disease or cancer.
COVID can cause new health problems to appear years after infection, according to a study of more than 130,000 patients (Fortune, May 30, 2024)

And it is not as if those new health problems can be expected to stop appearing after three years:
“We don’t know what we don’t know,” says Al-Aly. “This is only at three years… We don’t know what’s going to happen at 10 years.”

 

[Roger Ramjets]

For those who think that only really 'old' people who are already at death's door die of Covid, the latest report from Health New Zealand:-

Of the 41 people whose deaths we are reporting today: eight were from Auckland region, seven were from Waikato, two were from Bay of Plenty, three were from Hawke's Bay, two were from Taranaki, two were from MidCentral, two were from Wellington region, one was from Nelson Marlborough, eight were from Canterbury, one was from South Canterbury, five were from Southern.

Two were in their 50s, two were in their 60s, ten were in their 70s, ten were in their 80s and 17 were aged over 90. Of these people, 20 were women and 21 were men.

Women generally live longer than men, but apparently not when they get Covid.

On the bright side, before Covid the UK was looking at raising the retirement age to 71, but are now backing those plans off because old people are dying sooner than expected.

 

[dann]

At this point, nobody actually thinks that "only really 'old' people who are already at death's door die of Covid." Only trolls still pretend to think so.

 

[The Atheist]

For those who think that only really 'old' people who are already at death's door die of Covid, the latest report from Health New Zealand:-

Note those are preliminary figures and are people who died within 28 days of having covid. Covid as cause of death hasn't been established and I'll lay odds that the under 70s who croaked died of things other than covid. (or were terminally ill and at death's door)

Nice of you to jump on it, though, it really does show how desperate some people are to try to create panic.

 

[The Atheist]

At this point, nobody actually thinks that "only really 'old' people who are already at death's door die of Covid." Only trolls still pretend to think so.

Bollocks, almost everyone thinks only the very old are dying of covid, because it's true.

If you think you have data from 2024 that shows people not already in terminal decline are dying from covid, present it or stop bleating about it.

Now's your chance to show how wrong I am; surely you'll take up that offer!

 

[dann]

How many times do I have to show how wrong some people are before they stop pretending that they are right?
Besides, The Atheist has been making this claim for years, and yet he demands to see "data from 2024," knowing how hard it has become to find current data.
Instead, let's turn the tables and have The Atheist provide us with the data from 2024 showing that "only the very old are dying of covid."

Now's his chance to show how right he is; surely he'll deliver the data!
And notice that I am talking about actual data, and not speculative "odds that the under 70s who croaked died of things other than covid. (or were terminally ill and at death's door)."
Otherwise, I don't think he'll ever "stop bleating about it," and his predictions so far have been very far off the mark.

Presented with actual data, for instance the data provided by Roger Ramjets:

All data on this page relates to cases recorded prior to 11:59 pm 26 May 2024.
(...)
Of the 41 people whose deaths we are reporting today: ... Two were in their 50s, two were in their 60s, ten were in their 70s, ten were in their 80s and 17 were aged over 90.
COVID-19: Current cases (Health New Zealand/Te Whau Ora)

the knee-jerk reaction is predictable at this point: It can't be true, it can't still be true, and yet it always is. It is obvious who's panicking.

By the way, it would be nice to hear The Atheist's current definition of "people not already in terminal decline," "the very old," and "terminally ill and at death's door," preferably with "data from 2024," but data from 2023 will be fine, too.
After all, the prediction from March 25, 2022, was as far off the mark as it could possibly be:

I posted this in the science thread yesterday.

... 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that. ...

I see nothing about long covid to dissuade me from that view, and omicron has shown that nothing will stop it, so the best plan is to ignore it. Masks are fine, but merely delay the inevitable. The evidence of harm among the vaccinated is sketchy and shows no major harm being done to more than a tiny fraction of people, if even that.

In fact, it only took about three weeks, i.e. April 17, 2022, to get to more than 500 C19 deaths for 2022:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in New Zealand, Jan 2 to April 17, 2022 (Our World in Data)

 

[The Atheist]

How many times do I have to show how wrong some people are before they stop pretending that they are right?

Once would be good in this instance.

I gave you the opportunity and this is all you have:

... how hard it has become to find current data.

Cop out supreme.

If you don't have data, what are you talking about?

 

[The Atheist]

For those who think that only really 'old' people who are already at death's door die of Covid, the latest report from Health New Zealand:-

Something else occurred to me as well, and it's specific to you as someone who's actually in NZ.

You must easily recall that during all of 2021 & 2022, anyone young who died of covid made front page news. Even the four old dears who croaked from 'flu at the Coromandel rest home in January made the news.

If healthy people were dying of covid it would be big news.

 

[dann]

Once would be good in this instance.
I gave you the opportunity and this is all you have:
Cop out supreme.
If you don't have data, what are you talking about?

As expected. The Atheist cops out when asked to deliver actual data to support his speculations. It's how it always works.

 

[The Atheist]

As expected. The Atheist cops out when asked to deliver actual data to support his speculations. It's how it always works.

Yeah, nah.

You said, and I quote:

How many times do I have to show how wrong some people are before they stop pretending that they are right?

You specifically claim you are going to show me I'm wrong.

The onus is clearly on you to provide evidence to back that up.

I'm not at all surprised you're trying to crawl out of the hole you dug.

You have nothing except your fear.

 

[dann]

This can go on forever. It's like when The Atheist claims that ME/CFS and/or Long Covid don't really exist as physiological diseases, that they are psychogenic. People present him with the data showing that they are real, actual, physiological diseases, and The Atheist ignores the data entirely.

In this most recent case, Roger Ramjets presents The Atheist with data showing that of the recent C19 deaths in New Zealand, "two were in their 50s, two were in their 60s, ten were in their 70s."
The Atheist denies it for no reason at all. He doesn't present data showing it to be untrue. Instead, he speculates that it may not be true:
"Covid as cause of death hasn't been established and I'll lay odds that the under 70s who croaked died of things other than covid. (or were terminally ill and at death's door)"
"If healthy people were dying of covid it would be big news."
"Bollocks, almost everyone thinks only the very old are dying of covid, because it's true."

It's what he always does. It's the Trumpian way of denying any and all data. However, at this point we know that The Atheist's odds and other claims have nothing to do with reality. They are nothing but his wishful thinking, so let's see his "data from 2024" showing that "only the very old are dying of covid."

He could begin by coming up with his definition of "the very old" because he is always moving the goalposts. He appears to have shifted from 80+ to 70+.
And now that we're at it, it would also be nice to see his data showing that "almost everyone thinks only the very old are dying of covid."
He could start by simply telling us his definition of "almost everyone."

 

[theprestige]

For those who think that only really 'old' people who are already at death's door die of Covid, the latest report from Health New Zealand:-

Women generally live longer than men, but apparently not when they get Covid.

On the bright side, before Covid the UK was looking at raising the retirement age to 71, but are now backing those plans off because old people are dying sooner than expected. : rolleyes :

That sure looks like a bias towards older people to me. I wonder what else the two fifty-somethings had going on, health-wise.

 

[dann]

Rolfe used to refer to the level of CO₂ in air indoors:

You're just generally safer at any particular CO2 level if the other people are masked compared to if they aren't. CO2 concentration is used as a proxy measurement for the likelihood that you are breathing air that someone else has recently breathed out, that's all. Yes that air is less likely to have virus in it if the other person is masked.

There is another reason, not mentioned by Rolfe, why the CO₂ concentration is important:

1/ This is stunning. It isn't just that a high indoor CO2 level represents a poorly ventilated space, but that raised levels of CO2 (from as little as 800ppm) slow down the rate at which SARS-COV-2 decays. At 3000ppm, the effect is dramatically magnified. Watch the video:

2/ By 3000ppm of indoor CO2, about 30% of the virus stops decaying at all. Can you imagine what this means for a school bus, where CO2 levels can reach 9,000ppm?! This helps explain why there is so much mass infection on the way to and from school camps.

3/ In summary, a high indoor CO2 level does not just signify poor standards of ventilation and that you are rebreathing large amounts of other people's air. It also signifies air which is 'friendly' to the virus and keeps it alive and capable of infecting people for longer.

4/ It is imperative that we improve indoor air quality as a matter of urgency. In the meantime, I suggest people consider using a CO2 monitor to assess the safety or otherwise of indoor air, like - conflict of interest alert - the excellent Aranet4:
https://co2radical.com.au/buy-aranet4-home/]Buy Aranet4 HOME - CO2 Monitoring for Personal Use $285[/url]
Dr David Berger (X, June 3, 2024)

(It appears to be Australian $, so about 190 US$.)
The video is five minutes long. You can also watch it on YouTube:

 

[dann]

That sure looks like a bias towards older people to me. I wonder what else the two fifty-somethings had going on, health-wise.

Nobody questions "a bias towards older people." It's a fact.
Why do you "wonder what else the two fifty-somethings had going on, health-wise"?
Is it the usual 'old-and/or-frail-lives-don't-matter' minimizer refrain?
What about the two in their 60s?

 

[dann]

Breaking - started 22 minutes ago

House Republicans are poised to grill Dr. Anthony Fauci at a hearing on Monday as lawmakers continue to scrutinize his response to the COVID-19 pandemic and examine theories of the origin of the virus. The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic have spent 15 months rooting through emails, Slack messages and research proposals for evidence against the 83-year-old immunologist. Fauci previously proclaimed that he has "nothing to hide" and is coming before the panel voluntarily. It will mark the first time he's publicly testified since he left the federal government at the end of 2022 after five decades of service.
LIVE: Fauci to face fiery grilling by House GOP on Covid response, origins (MSNBC on YouTube, June 3, 2024)

 

[The Atheist]

This can go on forever.

Only because you have no evidence.

 

[dann]

Roger Ramjets made a claim and backed it up documentation:

For those who think that only really 'old' people who are already at death's door die of Covid, the latest report from Health New Zealand:-

Of the 41 people whose deaths we are reporting today: eight were from Auckland region, seven were from Waikato, two were from Bay of Plenty, three were from Hawke's Bay, two were from Taranaki, two were from MidCentral, two were from Wellington region, one was from Nelson Marlborough, eight were from Canterbury, one was from South Canterbury, five were from Southern.

Two were in their 50s, two were in their 60s, ten were in their 70s, ten were in their 80s and 17 were aged over 90. Of these people, 20 were women and 21 were men.

Women generally live longer than men, but apparently not when they get Covid.

On the bright side, before Covid the UK was looking at raising the retirement age to 71, but are now backing those plans off because old people are dying sooner than expected.

The Atheist made a claim, as always with no documentation. Instead, he confronted Roger Ramjet's documentation with "odds," as always based on nothing but wishful thinking:

Note those are preliminary figures and are people who died within 28 days of having covid. Covid as cause of death hasn't been established and I'll lay odds that the under 70s who croaked died of things other than covid. (or were terminally ill and at death's door)
Nice of you to jump on it, though, it really does show how desperate some people are to try to create panic.

So let's see him provide actual "data from 2024" showing that "only (!) the very old are dying of covid."
Where is it?
We know how unreliable The Atheist's claims and predictions are. Let's see his data. Let's see documentation.

 

[ahhell]

IDK, seems like Ramjets evidence shows, that the older you are, the more likely you are to die from covid and if you are under 50, there's not much to worry about. Sure, its not only the very old but its clearly mostly the old and very old and much less likely to die of covid if you are even middle aged.