How do we know a pandemic's over?

"evidence from multiple designs including mechanistic and real-world evidence" means the kind of evidence that you can get from studying how the filtration of the air (i.e. mechanistic) limits the number of viable virus particles inhaled and/or the number of viable virus particles in the air when infected test subjects wear masks. It is in many ways similar to studies showing how air filtration limits the number of reproducible virus particles per m3 air in hospitals.
I'm inclined to view the mechanistic approach positively. There's a lack of CTRs evaluating the efficacy of parachutes but the mechanistic evidence is compelling.

And yet, anti-maskers claimed that the Danish study showed that masks didn't work. It showed no such thing.

A study can show evidence of harm or benefit but absent either of these no study can show there is no effect. Basic math.

However, when the authors decide to use hermeneutics, I get uncomfortable. Might be fine analyzing scripture but I think it is way too likely to result in author's biases coming to the fore.

In view of this, our chosen review design was an in-depth narrative review in the hermeneutic tradition, whose primary aim was to make sense of this vast literature
 
You just happen to "know exactly (!) why they stopped masking up": "Because it was clear that IT HAD NO EFFECT ON OMICRON in Hong Kong"
So tell us how exactly you know that exactly: What exactly made it clear that masking up "HAD NO EFFECT ON OMICRON in Hong Kong""?
Are you referring to studies of the spread of Omicron in Hong Kong? Or is it based on people's attitude, which seems to be your main argument?
And why do the elderly continue to mask up when it is supposed to be so "clear that IT HAD NO EFFECT ON OMICRON in Hong Kong"?

Well, you could actually read what I posted previously, as I am not convinced you have done.
https://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=14245951&postcount=622

It was clear that masking had no effect on Omicron in Hong Kong because:

1. We had pretty much zero cases in Hong Kong for several years, under Hong Kong's zero covid approach and restrictions.
2. We had universal mandatory masking required by law.
3. We had mandatory 21 day hotel room quarantine, eventually reduced to 14, for all inbound travellers to Hong Kong.
4. During quarantine we had daily testing by health operatives in full body suits.
5. If a single case was found in a building, the entire building was tested, and any cases found sent to isolation or hospital.
6. To visit many places you had to show evidence of a PCR test on that day, without that you were unable to enter.
7. You had to scan your health status QR code in order to enter a shop or grocery store.
8. Any cases found during these tests were tracked and contacts also tested, and sent to isolation or hospital.
8. We thus had an extremely good idea of the number of cases that were present during this zero covid approach.
9. This number of cases had a few blips, but by and large was less than 20 a day.
10. Then omicron hit in March 2022.
11. Cases rose literally exponentially, rising from less than 20 a day to 75,000 new cases a day.
12. Health officials admitted after a month that they thought everyone in the population had already been exposed.
13. This all happened whilst the mandatory masking rules were in place.
14. If the masks didn't stop the entire population from being exposed, its clear that mandatory masking had no effect.

Eventually the HK government admitted that zero covid had failed against Omicron. How do I know this? Because that's WHAT THEY SAID AT THE TIME.

Check the graph:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/

15. The mask mandate was in place until Feb 28, 2023.
16. Note the case numbers on that graph, and the first, second, and third peak.
17. Note when the mask mandate was removed on that graph.
18. Note that all those cases were during the time the mask mandate and other restrictions were in place.
19. Note that after the mask mandate was removed, there was no similar peak. Because everyone had already been exposed, multiple times.

Why do I know masking had no effect on Omicron in Hong Kong?
Because that's what the data shows.

As it did last time you challenged me on this. As it will the next time, until you actually look at the data, and accept I know what I am talking about, as I lived through it, and you did not.
 
And why do the elderly continue to mask up when it is supposed to be so "clear that IT HAD NO EFFECT ON OMICRON in Hong Kong"?

Note I am not against wearing masks, I think that they probably do a little bit of good for the individual, less so against omicron and more transmissible variants, but still a bit. When I was in the UK and contracted covid I naturally wore one for the duration.

And if someone elderly wants to wear one to get a little bit of extra protection, more power to them, as they are more vulnerable.

Its just clear from the HK data that when considering the population as a whole, universal masking just didn't work to stop omicron. That is and has always been my only point.

And if you can't convince the entire population to wear masks all the time, which obviously won't work, you are going to get flare ups and peaks. Which means as you admit, from your pov you will need to start wearing a mask again when there is a peak. That is your perogative, of course.

And since Covid is not going away, and those flare ups and peaks are going to continue, you are going to have to do this for the rest of your life.

But you have to be realistic. Populations as a whole are not going to do this, as evidenced by the fact that they are NOT doing it.
 
I know from our experience here in Hong Kong with universal mandatory masking, that it made no difference at all during Omicron; we had exponential growth from 0 to 75,000+ new cases per day when the city was pretty much in lockdown and everyone wore masks all the time as a legal requirement.
Even with a perfect lockdown you will get exponential growth for a while.

With Omicron being as infectious as it is, masking is of little use if people still mingle. The mask will only reduce viral load, not eliminate it. The longer you hang around someone who is infectious, the more of the virus you will be exposed to. A mask reduces that exposure, which means that a brief proximity is less likely to result in catching it than if only one or neither party was masked.

But masks by themselves are not enough. In New Zealand we had no mask mandate during the first lockdown - we just relied on isolation to do the job. It did. However there were cases of people catching it even though they were not in close contact. In one case it must have been left on a surface, in another it traveled down a hallway to an adjoining door. The first could have been avoided by wiping down surfaces, the second might have been prevented by a mask.

Unfortunately with human nature being the way it is, strict lockdowns were not going work for long because people would violate them. In New Zealand we found that out with Delta. At first it looked good, but due to non-compliance it continued to spread in Auckland at a low level (which could not have happened if the lockdown was airtight). People got tired of it, but there was a positive effect - it scared them into getting vaccinated. By the time Omicron arrived a few weeks later 97% of those eligible were vaccinated. Then we let it rip. Masks became optional in most places, and today 'nobody' wears them (I went to the medical center today to make an appointment, and I was the only person in the room wearing a mask).

Compared to Hong Kong, New Zealand's Omicron cases increased at a similar rate (some sources say faster). According to one study done between 22 August 2020 and 7 March 2022, only 64% of pedestrians crossing a busy intersection in the city center wore masks. In the suburb only 38.7% wore masks. Even if mask wearing was totally effective, this level of compliance would not be enough for the much more contagious Omicron variants.

The reason Hong Kong did worse than New Zealand was their low vaccination rate, particularly in older people. Being vaccinated won't stop you from getting the virus, but does help fight it. The lower the viral load, the easier it is for the body to fight it off - if the immune system detects it. Wearing a mask lowers the viral load.

The other thing nobody's talking about today is surfaces. Omicron is known to survive longer than earlier variants. That means someone could touch or breath on something and someone else could be infected by it days later. During the first lockdown we didn't know what to expect, so many of us obsessively wiped down everything. Today most people don't even wash their hands, and don't make any effort to avoid close contact. With this behavior, even if masks were 100% effective it wouldn't help much.

To really protect yourself you have to do it all - avoid long term exposure and close proximity, wear an N95 mask or respirator, avoid touching surfaces and wipe down everything, wash your hands after any possible contact, be fully vaccinated. Better yet stay fully isolated as much as possible.

Yesterday I was relaxing outside during my lunch break as usual - after having quickly grabbed a drink and gotten out of the cafe as soon as possible - when a couple of co-workers joined me (on the opposite side of the table - I'm keeping my distance!). The subject of Covid came up, and they expressed surprise that I hadn't had it. Both of them had, one twice! The other surprising thing is... I haven't contracted any other viruses in the last 4 years either (I used to get a cold at least once a year).

Even if masks only reduce the chances of getting a bad Covid infection by a 'small' amount, that's better than nothing - especially since they protect against other diseases too. The only question is are they worth the hassle? I often have to wear a mask at work anyway because I am exposed to possibly infected soil or plant material and nasty chemicals. Two years ago I was 'gassed' by sterilized soil that hadn't been ventilated properly. Since then I am a lot more cautious about exposure and more comfortable with masking up for any reason.
 
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Even with a perfect lockdown you will get exponential growth for a while.
With Omicron being as infectious as it is, masking is of little use if people still mingle.

Those exponential rates in HK were when people were not mingling. I was in a quarantine hotel room looking over empty streets.

The reason Hong Kong did worse than New Zealand was their low vaccination rate, particularly in older people. Being vaccinated won't stop you from getting the virus, but does help fight it. The lower the viral load, the easier it is for the body to fight it off - if the immune system detects it. Wearing a mask lowers the viral load.

This is true, the vaccination rate in the elderly was lower than the young. Unfortunately that higher vaccination level in the non-elderly didn't help, as the government accepted that everyone got it.

I had always agreed with the idea that reducing the viral load from wearing a mask was worth it, but in practice, it just didn't seem to make any difference from Omicron in HK, and I changed my opinion.

There was also some concern from the HK Health department advisors the 2 years of closed borders, masking and other restrictions had produced a population with no natural immunity from being previously exposed to other more common respiratory diseases, and once the masks were lifted the winter flu season would be more severe than usual. And this turned out to be the case.

To really protect yourself you have to do it all - avoid long term exposure and close proximity, wear an N95 mask or respirator, avoid touching surfaces and wipe down everything, wash your hands after any possible contact, be fully vaccinated. Better yet stay fully isolated as much as possible.

Even if masks only reduce the chances of getting a bad Covid infection by a 'small' amount, that's better than nothing - especially since they protect against other diseases too. The only question is are they worth the hassle?

Agreed with all this.

I would never criticise anyone for doing whatever they feel necessary to protect themselves.

But my pov is that most of that hassle is in fact not worth it. So as I mentioned before, if I have a cold or get reinfected I would indeed wear a mask, but I wouldn't as a matter of course. And I suspect human nature means this is probably more than most would do, so we have to be realistic.
 
Note I am not against wearing masks, I think that they probably do a little bit of good for the individual, less so against omicron and more transmissible variants, but still a bit. When I was in the UK and contracted covid I naturally wore one for the duration.

And if someone elderly wants to wear one to get a little bit of extra protection, more power to them, as they are more vulnerable.

Its just clear from the HK data that when considering the population as a whole, universal masking just didn't work to stop omicron. That is and has always been my only point.

And if you can't convince the entire population to wear masks all the time, which obviously won't work, you are going to get flare ups and peaks. Which means as you admit, from your pov you will need to start wearing a mask again when there is a peak. That is your perogative, of course.

And since Covid is not going away, and those flare ups and peaks are going to continue, you are going to have to do this for the rest of your life.

But you have to be realistic. Populations as a whole are not going to do this, as evidenced by the fact that they are NOT doing it.


That is and never was your only point! You may have already forgotten what you wrote very recently:
"IT HAD NO (!!!) EFFECT ON OMICRON in Hong Kong, and had not stopped the outbreak in any way, shape or form"
If it has now become your only point, I'm glad to see the learning curve.


1. You are doing what I watched Anders Tegnell, the dumbest epidemiologist ever, do from the very beginning of the pandemic: argue against any and all kinds of mitigations because, on their own, one at a time, they don't stop the pandemic. Of course, in Tegnell's case, it was because he didn't want to put an end to or even a damper on the spread of the virus because it would have ruined his attempts to achieve herd immunity by infection. So he argued that masking up would not only not stop the pandemic. It would even make people sick: masking up was outright dangerous. It never seemed to occur to him that his proposed 6 feet of social distancing also wouldn't put an end to the pandemic, but that was probably because it never was supposed to do so.

2. The same thing goes for all the other preventive measures: One (or two or three) at a time, they aren't very effective against a virus that's as transmissible as SARS-CoV-2 has evolved to be at this point. It's the same with the vaccines, unfortunately. Much like face masks, they don't put a stop to the virus. They 'just' slow down the spread and let people get away easier when infected: fewer die, fewer are hospitalized, and fewer get sequelae. But they actually do do that!

3. This is why everybody in the know always point to the Swiss Cheese model, combining elements such as vaccinations, boosters, masks/respirators, indoor air filtration, social distancing, WFH, TeTrIs. (Sometimes hand-washing and cleaning of surfaces are still mentioned; for old times' sake, I guess.) If it all fails, lockdowns are extremely effective. I'll get back to that in another post.

4. You seem to be unwilling to give up the hyperbole: "universal", "entire", "all the time", "the rest of your life". Nobody, and let me repeat that: NOBODY has proposed this. It's a strawman.

5. What populations do or don't do depend on what they are told by (health) authorities: In my country, when we were told to mask up we masked up in indoor public places for a couple of weeks and/or an month or two. But in the winter of 2021-22, people were told that there was no longer any reason to mask up so they stopped doing it - and, as I've mentioned recently, the C19 death toll doubled in just four months even though the population was thoroughly vaccinated as well as boosted. Old people in Hong Kong appear to be smarter (or better informed) than old Danes: 10% in Hong Kong, if your observation is correct. 0.01‰ in Denmark, if mine is.
The fact that people are doing something has very little to do with why people are doing it. People used to brush their teeth with radioactive toothpaste. Some people still think that horse dewormer cures Covid-19.

As for the very effective vaccines, which unfortunately aren't sterilizing (to the anti-vaxxers! Please look up the meaning of the term sterilizing immunity!), some of the people who have hyped vaccines had a vested interest in doing so. The alleged 'super (hybrid) immunity' was a lie, and even at the time it was a very obvious lie, and yet certain researchers kept repeating the lie and were rewarded for doing so.
Overhyping Vaccines Wasn’t Pro-Vaccine. It Was Pro-Stop-Worrying-About-COVID. (Science-Based Medicine, Oct 1, 2023)
Vaccines and Variants: What Went Wrong in 2021? (We Want Them Infected podcast, May 28, 2024 - 53 min.)

ETA: From your other post:
14. If the masks didn't stop the entire population from being exposed, its clear that mandatory masking had no effect.


I repeat myself, but no, what's clear is that mandatory masking wasn't enough to prevent the spread of Omicron. You confuse this with mandatory masking having no effect.
 
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Even with a perfect lockdown you will get exponential growth for a while.


No, you don't. You are talking about a very imperfect lockdown - at least, if you are talking about new cases and not hospitalizations and deaths.
The Danish lockdown in the spring of 2020 began on March 11 - and as I keep mentioning, it was nowhere near 'draconian':

Weekly new hospital admissions for COVID-19 Denmark

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people Denmark

In comparison to no-lockdown Sweden:
Number of COVID-19 patients in hospital per million people Denmark, Sweden

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people Denmark, Sweden

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people Denmark, Sweden
In early 2020, people would mainly have been tested before hospitalization since testing equipment wasn't available, which is probably the reason why confirmed cases is almost parallel to hospitalizations.

At least at that stage of the pandemic, the rule seemed to be: 2-3 weeks after lockdowns, the number of new hospitalizations dropped, and 2-3 weeks after that, the death rate dropped, too. Precipitously!
infection --> symptoms --> hospitalization --> ICU --> death.
The number of new infections seemed to stop almost immediately after the lockdown was declared.


With Omicron being as infectious as it is, masking is of little use if people still mingle. The mask will only reduce viral load, not eliminate it. The longer you hang around someone who is infectious, the more of the virus you will be exposed to. A mask reduces that exposure, which means that a brief proximity is less likely to result in catching it than if only one or neither party was masked.


In Cuba, in the summer of ´21, the arrival of Delta was enough to render the country's defenses (lockdowns, TeTrIs, masks) insufficient. The vaccine campaign was only about to begin, and the masks Cubans had access to weren't very good. Usually surgical masks or home-made cloth masks.
Weekly confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people Cuba, Sweden
 
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That is and never was your only point! You may have already forgotten what you wrote very recently:
"IT HAD NO (!!!) EFFECT ON OMICRON in Hong Kong, and had not stopped the outbreak in any way, shape or form"
If it has now become your only point, I'm glad to see the learning curve.


1. You are doing what I watched Anders Tegnell, the dumbest epidemiologist ever, do from the very beginning of the pandemic: argue against any and all kinds of mitigations because, on their own, one at a time, they don't stop the pandemic. Of course, in Tegnell's case, it was because he didn't want to put an end to or even a damper on the spread of the virus because it would have ruined his attempts to achieve herd immunity by infection. So he argued that masking up would not only not stop the pandemic. It would even make people sick: masking up was outright dangerous. It never seemed to occur to him that his proposed 6 feet of social distancing also wouldn't put an end to the pandemic, but that was probably because it never was supposed to do so.

2. The same thing goes for all the other preventive measures: One (or two or three) at a time, they aren't very effective against a virus that's as transmissible as SARS-CoV-2 has evolved to be at this point. It's the same with the vaccines, unfortunately. Much like face masks, they don't put a stop to the virus. They 'just' slow down the spread and let people get away easier when infected: fewer die, fewer are hospitalized, and fewer get sequelae. But they actually do do that!

3. This is why everybody in the know always point to the Swiss Cheese model, combining elements such as vaccinations, boosters, masks/respirators, indoor air filtration, social distancing, WFH, TeTrIs. (Sometimes hand-washing and cleaning of surfaces are still mentioned; for old times' sake, I guess.) If it all fails, lockdowns are extremely effective. I'll get back to that in another post.

4. You seem to be unwilling to give up the hyperbole: "universal", "entire", "all the time", "the rest of your life". Nobody, and let me repeat that: NOBODY has proposed this. It's a strawman.

5. What populations do or don't do depend on what they are told by (health) authorities: In my country, when we were told to mask up we masked up in indoor public places for a couple of weeks and/or an month or two. But in the winter of 2021-22, people were told that there was no longer any reason to mask up so they stopped doing it - and, as I've mentioned recently, the C19 death toll doubled in just four months even though the population was thoroughly vaccinated as well as boosted. Old people in Hong Kong appear to be smarter (or better informed) than old Danes: 10% in Hong Kong, if your observation is correct. 0.01‰ in Denmark, if mine is.
The fact that people are doing something has very little to do with why people are doing it. People used to brush their teeth with radioactive toothpaste. Some people still think that horse dewormer cures Covid-19.

As for the very effective vaccines, which unfortunately aren't sterilizing (to the anti-vaxxers! Please look up the meaning of the term sterilizing immunity!), some of the people who have hyped vaccines had a vested interest in doing so. The alleged 'super (hybrid) immunity' was a lie, and even at the time it was a very obvious lie, and yet certain researchers kept repeating the lie and were rewarded for doing so.
Overhyping Vaccines Wasn’t Pro-Vaccine. It Was Pro-Stop-Worrying-About-COVID. (Science-Based Medicine, Oct 1, 2023)
Vaccines and Variants: What Went Wrong in 2021? (We Want Them Infected podcast, May 28, 2024 - 53 min.)

ETA: From your other post:



I repeat myself, but no, what's clear is that mandatory masking wasn't enough to prevent the spread of Omicron. You confuse this with mandatory masking having no effect.

No, you are still not reading what I am writing. You are arguing against what you think I am saying, or what Tegnell is saying, rather that what I am actually saying.

I am not saying that mandatory masking had no effect on an individual.
It's just that when considering the population, it didn't seem to make any difference at all in stopping the Omicron outbreak in HK.

And, if you look at the data, as I still don't think you have done, I am right.
Because the outbreak went on to cover the entire population. And once the mask mandate was lifted, there was no rebound.

This is not to say that some individuals possibly got a lesser dose due to wearing a mask. And some lives could well have been saved.
But it just didn't stop the outbreak, which is what I said all along, when I said things like this:

"in practice, it just didn't seem to make any difference from Omicron in HK,"
"Its just clear from the HK data that when considering the population as a whole, universal masking just didn't work to stop omicron."
"Because it was clear that IT HAD NO EFFECT ON OMICRON in Hong Kong, and had not stopped the outbreak in any way, shape or form,"

You now appear to be saying that universal masking plus a whole load of other stuff might have stopped the Omicron outbreak. Or that wearing a mask could have stopped severity in some cases.

You could well be right, but I am not arguing against that point. I am talking about what actually happened, not what might have happened.

My point is that universal masking had no effect on stopping the Omicron outbreak in Hong Kong. Because the Omicron outbreak in Hong Kong was not stopped, as shown by the data.

In fact, none of the restrictions imposed by the HK government stopped the Omicron outbreak in HK. Because the Omicron outbreak in HK was not stopped, as shown by the data.

Clear now?
 
Judging from pictures online, it looks like most people in Hong Kong wore surgical masks, which we know (and knew then) will not prevent transmission of an aerosolizing virus. It’s hard to understand a mask mandate that doesn’t mandate an effective mask.
 
Judging from pictures online, it looks like most people in Hong Kong wore surgical masks, which we know (and knew then) will not prevent transmission of an aerosolizing virus. It’s hard to understand a mask mandate that doesn’t mandate an effective mask.

That's correct, the majority were surgical. Stocks of the more protective were either not available in large enough quantities, or far too expensive for daily wear and discard for the average HKer.

Its all very well making a mandate, but someone still has to pay for them and supply them, so we got what we got.

Before Omicron, they seemed to do a good enough job against the original variants and Delta for 2 years, we had several outbreaks that were in fact successfully stopped.
 
This is not to say that some individuals possibly got a lesser dose due to wearing a mask. And some lives could well have been saved.
But it just didn't stop the outbreak, which is what I said all along, when I said things like this:
(...)
"in practice, it just didn't seem to make any difference from Omicron in HK,"
"Its just clear from the HK data that when considering the population as a whole, universal masking just didn't work to stop omicron."
"Because it was clear that IT HAD NO EFFECT ON OMICRON in Hong Kong, and had not stopped the outbreak in any way, shape or form,"
(...)
In fact, none of the restrictions imposed by the HK government stopped the Omicron outbreak in HK. Because the Omicron outbreak in HK was not stopped, as shown by the data.

Clear now?


Yes, it is clear. It already was. I understand what you are saying, but you don't seem to understand your own contradiction in terms: If some individuals "got a lesser dose due to wearing a mask" and "some lives could well have been saved," then it actually did have an "EFFECT ON OMICRON." The effect was that fewer people got infected, hospitalized and died.
And as jt512 just pointed out, the kind of mask (or even better: respirator) you wear (and also how well it fits) is important, too.

In Denmark, nothing that was done in the spring of 2020 and again in the winter of 2020-21 succeeded in stopping the local version of the pandemic. We never got close to ZeroCovid. But lockdowns and restrictions slowed the transmission of the virus down, lowered the number of people who got infected, died or were hospitalized, and let them live to get vaccinated before the virus was (unfortunately) let loose in the winter of 2021-22.
It saved thousands of lives and ten thousands of people's health - some of them only for about 20 months or so, but that would still be life worth living.

Like I said, we were never anywhere near the discomfort imposed upon people by the Hong Kong lockdown.
 
Before Omicron, they seemed to do a good enough job against the original variants and Delta for 2 years, we had several outbreaks that were in fact successfully stopped.

I doubt that the wearing of surgical masks contributed significantly to the control of those outbreaks.
 
NZ experiencing highest peak in 18 months

New Zealand is experiencing its highest peak in Covid-19 cases since December 2022, professor Michael Baker says.
Last week, the ministry reported 6146 new cases of the virus and 19 further deaths.
That was a substantial increase on the number of cases reported the previous week - which stood at 3922.
The data came from wastewater testing, Baker said, but hospitalisations were also up.
"We're up to about 35 people a day going to hospital with this infection," he said.
Baker told RNZ's First Up one in three people are still contagious five days after testing positive for the virus.
Covid-19: NZ experiencing highest peak in 18 months - epidemiologist (RNZ.co.nz, May 27, 2024)


35 hospitalizations a day and 19 deaths a week is quite a lot in a country of five million people. It sounds much like the beginning of the December wave in Denmark last year - or even worse, considering how fast the numbers appear to be rising.

May 1, 2024:
CDC discontinues mandatory Covid19 reporting
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home
Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data to HHS through CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). CDC encourages ongoing, voluntary reporting of hospitalization data. Data voluntarily reported to NHSN after May 1, 2024, will be available starting May 10, 2024, at COVID Data Tracker Hospitalizations.
Since reporting is voluntary, they will be reporting hospitalizations/100k rather than totals.
C19 has continued to decline here in San Diego with less than 10 deaths (3.3m pop) in the last month.
Given the lowest-ever number of hospitalisations right ow, that makes sense.
Health authorities have better things to do.
Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...
Crickets...
The CDC's main web site doesn't even have Covid-19 on its main page. The leading articles are about bird flu, heart disease, heat risk, and measles. And a link to a story about E. Coli in organic walnuts.
https://www.cdc.gov/
May 2, 2024: FLiRTing with KP.2

What would be the point of arguing? Minimizers will continue to claim that the pandemic is over whenever the numbers are temporarily low.
 
I doubt that the wearing of surgical masks contributed significantly to the control of those outbreaks.


Both surgical masks and cloth masks do seem to have some effect, but maybe it's because they may serve as a reminder to keep a distance and stay out of crowded indoor places. They don't do much filtration-wise.
 
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35 hospitalizations a day and 19 deaths a week is quite a lot in a country of five million people.

OMG! You're right, that's sobering news indeed.

My apologies, you're quite right to be panicking over a disease killing so many people. What was I thinking?

2% of all deaths, and all of them at the delightfully young age of 80+. That is truly tragic.

I'm lighting candles as I type...
 
It saved thousands of lives and ten thousands of people's health - some of them only for about 20 months or so, but that would still be life worth living.
Not according to The Athiest. Which makes it even more tragic when a dying old man put a pillow over his wife's face to save her from having to live without him, then got convicted of murder and will die in prison. He should have just infected her with Covid, then he would have gotten off scot free!
 
Those exponential rates in HK were when people were not mingling. I was in a quarantine hotel room looking over empty streets.
Yes, like I said that will happen. But with with proper isolation the peak will be lower. It will peter out when those who are already infected (and their family or others they are living with) have all been past the infectious period.

There was also some concern from the HK Health department advisors the 2 years of closed borders, masking and other restrictions had produced a population with no natural immunity from being previously exposed to other more common respiratory diseases, and once the masks were lifted the winter flu season would be more severe than usual. And this turned out to be the case.
Silly humans. Of course when masking and other restrictions were lifted people just went back to their filthy ways. We went through all that and learned nothing. :mad:

But my pov is that most of that hassle is in fact not worth it. So as I mentioned before, if I have a cold or get reinfected I would indeed wear a mask, but I wouldn't as a matter of course. And I suspect human nature means this is probably more than most would do, so we have to be realistic.
After being vaccinated I took off my mask and braved the world hoping it would protect me, but I didn't stop doing the other stuff - limiting exposure and masking up when around sick people. This has (so far) kept the viruses at bay. Maybe one day I will luck out, but it's definitely helped.

The longer I stay virus free the better. I suspect they are far more damaging than most people believe, particularly as you get older. I am 67 now and those (unknown) years I have left are getting fewer. 20 months might not sound like much when you are only 40, but if you knew they were all you had they would be a lot more precious to you!

Wearing a mask in high risk situations is not much of a hassle. As I said before, I often have to do it at work anyway just to stop dirt (or worse) getting up my nose. We are now being supplied with N95 masks which are much more effective that those surgical masks we used to use. Before Covid we got nothing!
 
"Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1..."

While others prefer to be in denial.
Meanwhile, it the real world:
Hallo… LB.1 just arrived and already recombinants with KP.2 and KP.3.2, spread over different countries, two JN.1* SarsCoV2 variants with also a recent appearance!
As @LongDesertTrain quotes: “Quite unusual”🤔
Are we missing out on parts of the mutational evolutionary path due to low genomic surveillance?
More incoming surprises? #DISTURBING
https://github.com/sars-cov-2-variants/lineage-proposals/issues/1559
Harry Spoelstra (X, May 29, 2024)


An increase in flu viruses detected at wastewater treatment plants in California in recent weeks has sparked concern that the H5N1 bird flu may be spreading more rapidly than anticipated, potentially putting the state's 1.7 million dairy cows at risk for infection.
Health officials have observed multiple spikes in influenza A viruses, which include the H5N1 avian flu strain that has killed millions of birds worldwide and infected dozens of dairy cow herds across nine U.S. herds.
The Bay Area, in particular, is a hotspot for flu activity, according to data from approximately 700 sites published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Nearly all monitored facilities in the region show moderate to high increases in influenza A viruses.
While the presence of bird flu has not been confirmed, it remains a possibility.
A spokesperson for the California Department of Public Health told the Chronicle that they are investigating the surge, which is “not following human influenza trends,” as it is not reflected in general population illness reports.
Normally, the circulation of influenza A - the type that more commonly causes flu in adults - diminishes significantly after the peak of the winter flu season. However, the current increase suggests otherwise.
“Officials investigate unusual surge in flu viruses in Northern California” (San Francisco chronicle, May 29, 2024)

Also on MSN.com.
 
Note I am not against wearing masks, I think that they probably do a little bit of good for the individual, less so against omicron and more transmissible variants, but still a bit. When I was in the UK and contracted covid I naturally wore one for the duration.


A study shows that you did your surroundings a favor by doing so:
In a head-to-head comparison of masks worn by people with active COVID-19, the inexpensive "duckbill" N95 came out on top, stopping 98% of COVID-19 particles in the breath of infected people from escaping into the air. Led by researchers from the University of Maryland School of Public Health (SPH), results showed other masks also performed well, blocking at least 70% of viral particles from escaping from the source – an infected person's exhaled breath.
(...)
Even without giving participants fit tests or training on how to wear masks correctly, all masks significantly reduced the amount of virus escaping into the air.
(...)
The duckbill N95 blocked 99% of large particles and 98% of small particles from escaping out of a person's mask. Milton says the design's tight seal, a powerful filter, and large air space for breath to move around all contribute to the duckbill's success.
Surprisingly, KN95 masks – the disposable masks used widely – were no more effective than cloth or surgical masks. The study found that a common brand of KN95 masks leak more air than duckbills or other studied masks, because they don't conform to the face well. That flaw is compounded by a powerful filter with more flow resistance that pushes air out of the mask at the sides instead of through the filter, allowing more virus particles to escape into the surrounding air.
Cloth masks also outperformed both KN95 and surgical masks. Milton theorizes that cloth masks with greater coverage, wrap around the face and give a better seal than either KN95 or surgical masks. With cloth mask filters, flow resistance is also lower, allowing breath to pass through the filter and not leak out the sides of the mask.
UMD Study: N95 Masks Block Almost All Airborne COVID-19 (MirageNews, May 30, 2024)


Maybe part of the success of the duckbill N95s is that they appear to be fastened behind the head not behind the ears: Duckbill Mask N95 (Amazon).
 

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